business confindence survey

Watch their money not their words

April 30, 2016 by IC Insider.com

Natalia Gobin-Gunter Chairman and Deputy Managing director inserting name strip to indicate listing of Key Insurance on the junior market.

Bank of Jamaica’s survey findings of perceptions of Present and Future Business Conditions in Jamaica reached the second highest levels in February 2016, since its inception in 2005. The data shows up the disparity of in how business executives think and what they do reflecting the real world, experience of a gulf between what people say they will do and what they in fact do. In the 2015 elections in Trinidad, 74 percent of voters indicated they were going to vote but 66.84 percent finally turned out to do so, while in Jamaica, pollsters said between 59 and 62 percent of the electorate were going to vote and only 48 percent did.
The survey findings of carried out amongst Jamaica’s business executives, show wild swings in their views on current conditions since the start of the data in 2005, while the index of future business conditions was far more predictive of actual business developments. The attached chart shows this up quite clearly. Other findings of the survey also points out that the top management of the various companies were was off the mark when it came to inflation, interest rates and the rate of exchange of the local dollar. One of the clearest measures to test what the executives say and do, is a comparison of the sentiments on business conditions and the performance of the stock market.
When it came time for the business community to put their money where their mouth is, it turned out to be vastly different from what they were saying in the Business Condition Survey. One measure of the business community’s bet on the future, is shown in the attached graph. The graph shows future expectations are is much more aligned with future business conditions than with current ones.

What the business sector did, reflected itself in a much smoother monthly movement than what they said about the future. When it comes to money, the stock market reflects what people are doing with their money as opposed to what they say. The chart shows the movement in the all Jamaica Composite Index, plotted against the two business surveys published by the country’s central bank.
The movement of the stock market seems a better predictor of future expectations, than the surveys, as shown by the smoother movement of the stock market compared with the sentiments data. What is also true, is that the future expectations and the stock market movements are fairly closely aligned with each other.

Filed Under: Economy, Feature Stories, JSE Main Market, Stock Market Tagged With: all-Jamaica Composite index, BOJ, business confindence survey, Jamaica Stock Exchange, Jamaican Stock

Jamaica’s business optimism surges

April 24, 2016 by IC Insider.com

New units built at Montego Freeport in 2015.

Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is reporting a surge in perceptions of present and future business conditions in Jamaica over December last year, as seen by business executives.
Present business conditions reached its second highest level in February when measured by the index of present business conditions, since the record high of 240.2 in the September 2007 survey, Bank of Jamaica reported.
The index of present business conditions increased to 224.9 from 190.4 in the December 2015 survey. The out turn compares with a low of 47.50 reached in April 2013 and in March 2010 the lowest level of 40. The index has a base of 100 in December 2005.
The executives have a heightened picture of the future as the index of future business conditions also climbed reaching 172.1 from 158.2 in the previous survey.

The improvement in both indices reflected increases in the number of respondents of the view that conditions were or will be “better” while there were declines in the number of respondents indicating that conditions were “worse” the BOJ report stated. The recent improvement is reflective of a gradual improvement since the latter half of 2013 and it been on the increase since with the occasional slip as occurred in July 2015.
The chart shows that the perception of future business conditions is more stable than short term current conditions view. The data shows in the latter part of 2015, for the first second time since the commencement of the survey, the present business conditions have moved well ahead of future conditions.

Filed Under: Company News, Feature Stories, General Business News Tagged With: BOJ, business confindence survey

Big drop in Business Confidence

August 28, 2015 by IC Insider.com

The perception of present and future business conditions fell sharply in the latest survey conduction on behalf of Bank of Jamaica in July. Deterioration was registered in both surveys among respondents relative to the previous survey.
Notably, the index of present business conditions fell sharply to 130.3 from 166.9 in the previous survey. The index of future business conditions declined to 135.2 from 148.3 in the previous survey.
The result for July is the worse since September 2014 at 123.6 for current conditions and August 2014 for future business conditions at 119.4. Both confidence levels have broken the upward movement by breaking the trend line going back to October 2013, a negative sign, suggesting the likelihood of further declines ahead. The negative development seems to be showing up in the performance of the local stock market which has stagnated over the 108,000 points on the all Jamaica Index, in spite of a fall in interest rates initiated by the country’s central bank.
Notwithstanding, the declines in the recent indices of perceptions of present and future business conditions, they have displayed a general upward trend since the April 2013 survey, bank of Jamaica stated in the report. Of course that upward trend is now broken as indicated above.
The drop in the confidence levels is probably tied in with the depreciation of the Jamaican dollar in during June and July. At the start of June the exchange between the Jamaican dollar and the US was $116.13 reaching $116.98 at the end of the month and closed out July at $117.42.

Filed Under: Breaking News, Economy, Feature Stories Tagged With: business confindence survey

Business sector don’t get it

November 26, 2014 by IC Insider.com

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Jamaica has to rely on the private sector, to help lift it from the economic quagmire it finds itself in, for the past 3 decades. A look at certain data shed some light on the task the country faces.
It tells of a nation where the business sector leaders seem to be managing more from the seat of their pants than based on properly informed position. Take the case of inflation, which ran at 5.1 percent up to August, for 2014, for an average of just less than 0.68 percent per month, and against the back ground of slippage in the exchange rate in the early months that would have helped spike inflation then. With an almost stable Jamaican dollar in September a survey done by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica on behalf of the Bank of Jamaica to ascertain the expectations of Chief Executive Officers, Managing Directors and Financial Controllers about the future movement of prices in September this year, to which 270 responded, found that their expectation for inflation for 2014, will end at 10.2 percent. On what basis is they arrive at this forecasted amount.
Interestingly, the official inflation rate to October is 7.3 percent, the full year’s figure should hoover around this level with the price of oil on the world market having declined sharply, pulling some local cost down with it.
The business sector record on business confidence both on the current state as well as a year out has no better record as ca be seen from the wild fluctuation in the periodic results.
On the matter of Treasury bill rate, while rates have been declining monthly from a peak in March, this year. The survey respondents expected the rate for the 182 day Treasury bill to come out at 8.6 percent at a time the rate had already declined to 8 percent. Admittedly, the interest rate forecast is not totally inconsistent with the managerial group inflation forecast, as investors would want to be compensated with an interest rates above the inflation as they see it. But if the inflation rate forecasted is as high as the private sector figures there would also be need for a greater slippage in the rate of exchange for the Jamaican dollar versus the US dollar. Yet their perception that the exchange rate would slip by 1.3 percent by the end of 2014 from September, would not be in keeping with the high inflation rate they projected.

Filed Under: Breaking News, Economy, Feature Stories Tagged With: Bank Of Jamaica, BOJ, business confindence survey, GOJ Treasury bills, Inflation in Jamaica, Institute of Jamaica, Jamaica dollar

Future business confidence jumps 19%

November 26, 2014 by IC Insider.com

A recent survey, undertaken on behalf of Bank of Jamaica by The Statistical institute of Jamaica, shows continued improvement in the perception of present and future business conditions among respondents within the executive ranks of corporate Jamaica.
The improvement in current conditions show, a gradual monthly improvement since April last year, with periods of slippages in between. The September result of 123.6 reflects a recovery from a fall in August this year to 110.2. It is now just a little higher than the level reached in July of 121.1 and is at its highest since March last year, when the survey showed a 134.7 reading. If the business sector is gaining increasing confidence about current conditions they seem pretty bullish about the future a year out, as the perceptions of future business conditions continue to display a general upward trend, with the latest numbers coming in at 142.4 representing a leap of 19 percent from August this year. The latest survey figures for future conditions, is a shade short of the 148.8 achieved in May 2012 and March 2013.
The data for both surveys show the difficulty in relying on them as to what can really be expected going forward, with fairly high levels of variations. This is also borne out by the forecasting of the business sector on inflation, with their forecast consistently ahead of what the out turns end up being.

Filed Under: Breaking News, Economy, Feature Stories Tagged With: BOJ, business confindence survey

Jamaica’s business confidence drops

October 1, 2014 by IC Insider.com

Perception of present and future conditions is down in the business sector, according to data of a survey, released by Bank of Jamaica. The survey which was done in August showed a deterioration compared to June.
In the recent survey, there was a marked moderation in both the perception of present and future business conditions among respondents relative to the previous survey. The indices showed current business conditions at 110.2 versus June’s 121.1 and 102.5 in May. The perception of future business conditions as measured by the index declined to 119.4, from 129.9 in June. The level is still ahead of the May 2014 outturn, of 117.9.
The perceptions of present and future business conditions, continue to show a general upward trend since the low of 47.5 percent in April 2013 survey, for current business condition and 93.4 for future business conditions. The indices peaked at 157.9 in December 2011 for current business conditions and 148.8 in March 2013 for future business conditions.

Filed Under: Economy, Feature Stories Tagged With: business confindence survey

Businesses more optimistic

July 3, 2014 by IC Insider.com

Perception of in the most recent survey done in May of this year showed improvement in present business conditions by the business sector, compared to the previous survey done in April. The Bank of Jamaica commissioned survey, shows the index moving from 95.8 in April to 102.5 in May. The results are well off the 158 achieved in December 2011 or 135 reached in March 2013.
Expectations about future business conditions, however, were largely unchanged. Of note, both indices remained below the levels recorded in Fiscal year 2011/12, nonetheless, the perceptions of present and future business conditions have displayed a general upward trend since the April 2013 survey.