Mailpac drops out of IC TOP15 stock listing

Stocks left to languish at depressed prices for months are coming back to life as some investors are now seeing the light of the huge potential profit in Junior Market stocks compared to their senior counter paths in the Main Market.
The Main Market slipped a bit to end the first half of January, with a modest loss but technical indicator points to it heading towards the 460,000 points level on the All Jamaica Composite Index, soon. The Junior Market is up 2.4 percent since the 2020 close and is a few points away from the level reached at the close of March 5 last year, having surpassed the April high, as the bullish golden cross takes full hold on the market to launch a big rally.
During this past week, IC TOP 15 selections MailPac, Caribbean Cream and Jamaican Teas all posted gains with Mailpac hitting a series of record highs this past week and closed at $3.75 up 30.6 percent since the end of 2020 and is now well outside of the 2021 Top 15 list for Junior Market stocks. The stocks still have much room for growth in the year to benefit from a strong increase in revenues. Caribbean Cream posted continued growth in sales for the November quarter and almost doubled profit for the nine months period and increased it by 37.5 percent for the third quarter. The stock gained 50 cents at the close on Friday but traded as high as $5 during the week and moved from fifth spot last week to ninth position on the 2020/21 TOP10 list. Jamaican Teas gained 25 percent since December and seems poised to move higher as interest in the stock grows since the announcement of a three for one stock split late last year. An indication of increased interest is the exchange of 4 million shares on Friday. The stock moved from the fourth position last week to seventh this past week as it gained 24 percent for the week.
Lasco Manufacturing rose in the past week and moved out of the TOP10 Junior Market ranks, with Honey Bun replacing it.
The current TOP 10 report is based on earnings for 2020/21 as there are substantial gains ahead, for many stocks in the listings.
Investors should be on the lookout for new quarterly results with Express Catering and Margaritavillle and should release results this week. Before the month ends, expect results from Caribbean Cement, QWI, NCB Financial, Barita and the three Lasco companies.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 208 to 373 percent are Lasco Financial, followed by Caribbean Producers and Elite Diagnostic. With expected gains of 125 to 315 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are, Berger Paints followed by Grace Kennedy and Jamaica Broilers.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, from now to the second quarter in 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 16.4 and the Junior Market 14.6, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 7.6 at just 52 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 9.2 or 56 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 185 percent and 130 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Lots of gains left for IC 2020 TOP10 stocks

The TOP 10 report is back and based on earnings for the 2020/21 period as there are still substantial gains ahead for many stocks in the listing, accordingly, ICInsider.com will hold off from our weekly commentary for the 2021/22 listings posted earlier this week.
For the few days in 2021, the Junior Market has moved slightly higher than the 2020 close and is a few points away from April’s high point and March 5 last year as the bullish golden cross takes full hold on the market to launch a big rally.
The Main Market slipped a bit to end the first week of the new year with a modest loss, but technical indicator points to it heading towards the 460,000 points level on the All Jamaica Composite Index.
Investors should be on the lookout for new quarterly results starting this week with AMG Packaging, Caribbean Cream, Express Catering, Knutsford Express, Margaritaville and Paramount Trading should release results this week. Before the month ends, other results expected are from Caribbean Cement, QWI Investments, NCB Financial, Barita Investments and the Lasco companies.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 199 to 364 percent by March 2021 are Caribbean Producers, followed by Elite Diagnostic and Lasco Financial. With expected gains of 123 to 219 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are Berger Paints, followed by Scotia Group and Grace Kennedy.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

More big price changes for IC TOP10

Last week, the Junior Market continued to move higher, closing higher than the prior week as the market index continues to flirt with the 2,600 points mark ahead of breaking higher and ended at the highest weekly close since mid-August as the bullish golden cross takes full hold on the market to launch a big rally.

Carreras stock price rose 14% during the past week.

In the process of the Junior and Main Market rising this past week, it ended with no new change to the TOP10 lists but there were some price movements of note during the week. Caribbean Producers having fell to $2.74 in the previous week rebounded 5 percent this past week to $2.89, while Lasco Financial lost 9 percent to close at $2.50.
The JSE Main Market rose to the highest level in nine trading days, during the week as it targets the 450,000 points level on the All Jamaica Composite Index in the next few weeks. Two stocks on the TOP10 made good gains in the week. Carreras that has lied in the top tier for some time, finally made a move, with a rise of 14 percent to $7.35 and now sits at no 6 spot, on the list. Radio Jamaica climbed another 13 percent this week, as sellers are less visible, with buyers pushing the price to $1.45 for a rise of 33 percent in just three weeks.
This week’s focus: The long awaited initial public offer of shares by Alliance Finance was announced this past week, with an offer for existing shareholders to sell 1.15 billion shares at $1.59 each. The prospectus containing details of the offer was released this past Wednesday, with the opening date of December 28. Other issues already announced are Sygnus Credit Investments, scheduled to close Wednesday gone, is extended to December 28. The original closing date was not convenient for some investors as the Christmas season placed pressure on some to meet the deadline. Key Insurance the smallest of the lot with a rights issue opens on December 28 and Derrimon Trading opens on January 8. Sygnus Credit Investments appears to be the best value offering with a PE below 10 times earnings.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 220 to 350 percent by March 2021 are Caribbean Producers, followed by Elite Diagnostic and Lasco Financial, with Jamaican Teas slipping to 4th place. With expected gains of 133 to 221 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are, Berger Paints followed by Scotia Group and Grace Kennedy.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, from now to the second quarter in 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 16.4 and the Junior Market 14, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 7.2 at just 52 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 9.3 or 57 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 194 percent and 121 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year.  Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

 

Sygnus BUY RATED APO

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Sygnus Credit Investments public share offer that opened on December 18 is scheduled to close on Wednesday, December 23; the shares are attractively priced and should be eagerly taken up as investors traded the shares at $28 and 21 US cents in the last twelve months.
Sygnus is an international business company incorporated under the International Business Companies Act of Saint Lucia. It provides non-traditional financing to middle market businesses. The objective of SCI is to generate attractive risk adjusted returns with downside protection. SCI’s dividend policy is to pay out up to 85 percent of net income.
The company started operating successfully in 2017 in Jamaica, with its shares listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange in 2018, after offering 90.9 million shares to the public that were fully taken up by investors.
Jamaican denominated shares were then priced at J$13.72 for each and 11 US cents for each US dollar denominated share to raise US$10 million. Investors put down more than $3.8 billion to purchase the shares and the issue was up-sized to US$20.3 million. The FSC has now placed an upward limit on the upsizing of IPOs to no more than 50 percent of the initial amount offered.
The company is now offering 196.4 million shares to the public to raise US$22 million or J$3.3 billion equivalent in an additional public offering. The offer may be upsized to US$32 million or J$4.8 billion. The issue is priced at $14.70 and 13 US cents per share for existing shareholders and team members. The shares are available to other investors at $16.30 and 14 US cents each. The stock last traded on the Jamaica Stock Exchange at $16 and 15.7 US cents. The Minimum Subscription is 1,000 Shares.
Sygnus provides funding to mid-market businesses across a wide cross section of industries including, Manufacturing, Distribution, Energy, Financial Services, Transportation and Infrastructure by way of Notes or bonds, asset-backed debt, preference shares, leveraged debt, bridge financing, mezzanine debt, subordinated debt and other structured private credit instruments.
Mezzanine financing is a hybrid of debt and equity financing that gives the lender the right to convert to an equity interest in the company in case of default, generally, after venture capital companies and other senior lenders are paid.
Sygnus states that its industry exposure is limited to a maximum of 35 percent with no more than 25 percent in any single company or group of companies. The typical tenor is up to 5 years, with a maximum of 7 years in exceptional cases.
All investments they are involved in must have a clear exit strategy, which must be covered by, at a minimum, repayment of debt, sale of position, or Initial Public Offering.
The funds raised are to take advantage of pipeline opportunities in high quality middle-market firms, the company states. Increase flexibility to expand origination in trade, acquisition and asset-backed finance and play a leading role in financing the recovery and growth of middle-market firms. Pay down US$10M bridge notes and allow for more efficient utilization of debt markets in the future that will lower cost and improve the company’s flexibility in funding clients’ demands. Optimize the use of leverage to drive the rate of return on equity expansion and enhance dividends.
The company reports that the average annual dividend yield is 5 percent on USD shares and 5.5 percent on Jamaican dollar shares based on the IPO price of the stock in 2018.
The company has US$62.3 million invested in 29 Portfolio Companies in September 2020, an increase of 117 percent over September 2019, with an outlay of US$29 million in 18 Portfolio Companies. The company has commitments amounting to US$8.7 million to fund.
Investments are within the Caribbean, with 50 percent in Jamaica, the Dutch Caribbean islands account for 17 percent and St Lucia 12 percent, with the rest spread over other countries in the region.
The Company’s portfolio of investments surpassed the US$50 million for the year to June 2020 while generating US$4.5 million in total investment income and US$1.97 million in net profits, 3.8 percent less than the prior year with US$2.05 million. First quarter results to September saw Net profits climbing 51 percent to US$798,000 as total investment income grew 19.8 percent to US$1.3 million and portfolio investments grew 117 percent to US$62.3 million.
Shares will be allotted on a first come, first served basis. In other words, the first set of applicants will get full allotment until all the shares are issued as such late applications may end up getting no shares.
ICInsider.com projects earnings of $1.80 per share for the current year to June 2021 based on the existing issued shares with a PE ratio of 9 and 12 for the US dollar issue. The company is poised for growth. The stock is undervalued and should be bought for growth and income; accordingly, it gets ICInsider.com BUY RATED accolade.

RJR Group chops staff

“Companies in the RJRGLEANER Communications Group on Friday, December 11, completed a reorganisation exercise primarily driven by the negative impact of the Coronavirus 2019 Disease (COVID-19) and the need for continued changes as the global media and communications industry continues its transformation,” a release from the group states.
“The exercise which was done over several months saw some positions being made redundant, impacting 107 workers, five of them being managers, the release stated.” In May, the Group reported, “due to a significant downturn in revenues in some areas of its business, it had been forced to lay off almost 100 workers for 120 days. While there has been some improvement in the last few months, revenues have still not returned to pre-COVID levels.”
“During the period, the company also reorganised and reoriented several of its business units and approaches, to be more agile, more competitive and more efficient. They complimented changes which see the Radio and Television areas of the Group being managed as a broadcast division, with the print and online units now managed as an integrated print and online division.”
“The Group’s technology activities have also been brought together in a technology division focused on the full digitalization of the Group’s operations and the enabling of a higher level of digital output.”
“This focus has seen investments in new management, customer relationship and production systems that will improve customer tracking and servicing, provide data analytics to aid management decisions, as well as delivering data analytics to clients to assist in decision making.”
“There has also been investment in new data management and publication systems to improve the consumer experience with our electronic publications, whilst increasing revenue-generating opportunities.”
“Tighter planning and elements of publication rationalization along the lines driven by closer data analytics have improved aspects of print and online operations. A new digital marketing and sales unit is developed to accelerate business growth in the Gleaner’s print and online business.”
“The Overseas publications have been revamped with a discontinuation of the weekly printing of newspapers in the United States and Canada, in favor of electronic publications, with special printed and online publications being done around special diaspora events.”

RJR shareholders at the 2019 AGM at the Jamaica Pegasus

“In broadcast, the local programming content strategy which has served Television Jamaica well, prior to and through the pandemic will continue to be built upon as TVJ is poised and ready to take advantage of the imminent announcement of the change from analogue television broadcasting to digital terrestrial television broadcasting in Jamaica.” The switch to digital broadcasts will provide consumers with multiple high quality television services from TVJ and further reduce operating cost.
“The group continued its focus on the diversification pillar of its strategy which has seen a minority stake of 10% taken up in digital marketing player ePost Caribbean Limited at the end of November, and an increase in the group’s equity position in Jamaica Holdings LLC, operator of e-commerce business, Gustazos to 50%, to be effective this month.”
“The Group is confident that with this reorganization and other activities, it is poised for growth and strengthening in 2021 and beyond,” the release from the group concludes.
Bad news oftentimes results in big investment gains down the road. In fact, investors must be seeing this when they drove the stock up from $1.12 at the end of the prior week to $1.28 on Friday, as the week close with limited selling of the stock.
ICInsider.com estimates that the redundancy exercise will save the group between $100-250 million in a full year. In the meantime, revenue in the print division is down sharply from 2019, but the electronic segments are holding their own.
The group reported a profit of $2 million in the June quarter but a loss before tax of $96 million for the halfyear to September. Depreciation in the first quarter of $67 million surged to $210 million in the second quarter, with the charge in the print division jumping from $11 million to $104 million for an increase of $93 million, due no doubt to an acceleration in write off of fixed assets at the newsprint division.
The print division generated revenues of $437 million in the June quarter, down from $722 million in 2019 and incurred a loss of $55 million for the 2020 period. Revenues increased $123 million in the September quarter over the June quarter to reach $560 million, yet was still lower than the $722 million garnered in 2019 September quarter, resulting in a loss of $154 million in the 2020 quarter, due mainly to redundancy and the increase depreciation charges.
To September 2020, the Audio-Visual division saw profit almost doubling from $84 million to $160 million, with revenues up marginally from $1.041 billion to $1.046 billion, while the Audio segment experienced a drop in revenues from $362 million to $325 million resulting in a loss of $11 million in 2019 rising to a $12 million loss.
The group generated positive cash flows from operations even after receivables rose by $116 million and cash on hand ended at $398 million, up from $253 million at the end of September 2019.
While results to march 2021 may well show a loss resulting more from one-off charges than from continuing operating performance.

Strong price changes for IC TOP10 stocks

Last week, the Junior Market closed the week at the highest level since November 17 and before that, October 2 and moved higher this week to just below mid-August summer high. Based on the close on Thursday when the market closed above 2,600 points, the first in several months the market seems poised to challenge the April high point before the year ends.
The Main Market closed lower at the end of the past week having pulled back from last week from the close of the previous week. Against the above out turn, there is just one new addition to the TOP10 at the end of the week but there were some price movements of note during the week.
Lasco Manufacturing edged into Junior Market TOP10 as Derrimon Trading fell out with our projection for earnings down to 13 cents per share for the current year.
Radio Jamaica surged 14 percent to close at $1.28 after the company reported completion of its reorganization that resulted in 107 persons made redundant and restructuring of the operating segments within the group that should allow for greater efficiency and focus. The market closed the week with limited stocks on offer suggesting, the price should be moving higher if buyers want to stock up. AMG Packaging and Caribbean Producers fell 7 percent to $1.55 and $2.74, respectively. Lasco Distributors fell 8 percent to $3.16 from $3.55. Lumber Depot rose 12 percent to $1.55 and Jamaican Teas gained 8 percent to $2.05.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 193 to 374 percent down from  216 to 342  percent by March 2021, are Caribbean Producers, followed by Elite Diagnostic and Jamaican Teas. With expected gains of 138 to 221 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are, Berger Paints followed by Carreras and Scotia Group.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, from now to the second quarter in 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 16.8 and the Junior Market 13.7, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 7.2 at just 53 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 9.2 or 55 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 194 percent and 125 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings. IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year.  Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

IC TOP10 stocks deliver strong gains

The Junior Market closed the week at the highest level since November 17 and before that, October 2 and seems poised to take out all recent highs on the way to the year-end rally and a bullish period to come, to take it over 3,000 points. The main Market pulled back from last week’s levels but closed at the highest point for the week on Friday.
Honey Bun dropped out of the TOP 10, with Derrimon Trading replacing it at the bottom of the list. Honey Bun’s stock price jumped 19 percent for the week to $6.49 on Friday, with the stock now showing very limited supply and a bit of demand on the buying side, although a bit below the last sale price. The increased demand this week follows a strong September quarter profit that rose 76 percent over 2019. Wisynco Group spent just a week in the Main Market TOP 10, moved up in price to close out the week with the stock rising to $16.43 from $16.10 and replaced by NCB, in at the tenth position. The projections are for earnings to recover from the increased provision for expected credit loss charges in 2020 and from continued growth in the business and deliver earnings of $12 per share for the current year to September.
Former TOP10 holder MailPac, hit a record high on Friday, in closing at $2.60, up 19 percent from $2.19 last week. Lumber Depot reported earnings for the October quarter, keeping earnings on track for 20 cents per share and put added life into the stock, moving the price up 6 percent to close the week at $1.39 at a PE of 7 times earnings, well below the market average of 13.7. Caribbean Producers moved up 13 percent from $2.60 to $2.94 at the close and up a nice 21.5 percent for the month to date. The stock seems on target to move back into the $4 range sooner than later, with stock supplies thinning out and prospects for improved business looking increasingly better in 2021.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential by March 2021 to gain between 216 to 342 percent down from 239 to 400 percent at the end of the previous week are Caribbean Producers, even with the price has moved in recent weeks from $2.35 to $2.94 currently, followed by Elite Diagnostic and Jamaican Teas. Lumber Depot, in at third position last week, is now down to sixth after investors responded positively to quarterly results. With expected gains of 146 to 236 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are Berger Paints, followed by Radio Jamaica and Carreras.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, from now to the second quarter in 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 16.6 and the Junior Market 13.7, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 7.3 at just 53 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 9.1 or 55 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 192 percent down from 210 percent and 129 percent from 133 percent last week for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings. IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year.  Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

IC TOP 10 buffeted by market consolidation

Both the Junior and Main Market continue to consolidate ahead of a bullish period to come, as trading activities were calmer during the past week on the Jamaican Stock Exchange after a surge in prices towards the end of November. There were no major price movements this past week, but the price of Grace Kennedy pulled back from $67 to close at $64 at the end of the week while JMMB Group moved up to $35 from $34 last week.

Wisynco squeezes back into ICInsider TOP 10.

Fontana closed trading $5.35 and that was enough to move it out of the IC TOP 10. Honey Bun, with its earnings now based on the fiscal year ending September 2021 replaced Fontana. Stanley Motta is out of the Main Market TOP 10, with the stock rising to $5.35 and replaced by Wisynco Group, in at tenth position.
Profit after tax at Honey Bun, rose a healthy 76 percent to $54 million from $31 million in the fourth quarter over the similar period in 2019, bettering the 21 percent rise in the June quarter, to $20.4 million from $16.7 million. For the year to September, profit increased just 6.6 percent to $167 million from $156 million in 2019, from sale revenues that rose 15.5 percent for the quarter, to $432 million from $374 million but rose 8.5 percent for the year, to $1.675 billion from $1.544 billion in 2019. Earnings projection for the 2021 fiscal year is 55 cents, up from 35 cents for 2020 giving the stock a PE of 10.

Wisynco Group’s performance was on a roll, with revenues up 27.5 percent in the nine months to March this year, and 24 percent in the March quarter, but gross profit margin slipped in the March quarter while rising Administration and other expenses squeezed profits even more. Sales dipped slightly in the June and September quarters, but the September 2019 quarter, includes sales of $503 million from a discontinued operation, leaving flat sales from ongoing operations. Net Profits Attributable to Stockholders from continuing operations was $851 million or 23 cents per stock unit compared to $932 million or 25 cents per stock unit for the corresponding period of the prior year. Revenues for the quarter from continuing operations of $8.1 billion fell 6.1 percent from $8.6 billion in the 2019 quarter. The company expects to have lower energy costs with the successfully commissioning of the Cogeneration plant in July 2020, with the company seeing a positive contribution from the implementation through reduced energy costs.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 239 to 400 percent by March 2021 are Caribbean Producers, followed by Elite Diagnostic and Limber Depot. With expected gains of 147 to 252 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are, Berger Paints followed by Radio Jamaica, Carreras and Sygnus Credit Investments tied for the third position.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, from now to the second quarter in 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating the potential gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 16.1 and the Junior Market 13.1, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 6.9 at just 53 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 9 or 56 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 210 percent and 133 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings. IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year.  Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

 

Q4 profit jumps 76% for Honey Bun

The Easter bounce in earnings never happened for Honey Bun with sales in the March quarter up 13 percent and the June quarter down 7 percent, but fourth quarter sales compensated for the June fall out, increasing a strong 15.5 percent.

Rising profit at Honey Bun

Profit after tax in the fourth quarter rose a healthy 76 percent to $54 million from $31 million in 2019, bettering the 21 percent rise in the June quarter, to $20.4 million from $16.7 million. For the year to September, profit increased just 6.6 percent to $167 million from $156 million in 2019.
Sale revenues rose 15.5 percent for the quarter, to $432 million from $374 million but rose 8.5 percent for the year, to $1.675 billion from $1.544 billion in 2019. The company manufactures and distributes baked products in Jamaica and overseas, with overseas revenue less than 10 percent of gross sales revenue.
Historical profit performance has not been exhibited a predictable pattern, partly due to expansion related cost. Profit jumped sharply in 2016 from 2015 but dipped in 2017 and again in 2018 but rose in 2019 as a recent expansion allowed for increased sales, with the latest period continuing to reflect growth but muted by the COVID 19 dislocations.

One Honey Bun’s Products.

Notwithstanding the profit performance that may present a chequered path, the company has one of the best management teams of Junior Market companies to build-out the capacity for continued growth in revenues and increased efficiency.
Gross profit margin moved up from 46 percent in 2017 and has been consistent at 48 percent since 2018 and resulted in gross profit rising nine percent to $799 million from $745 million.
Administrative and other expenses rose just one percent to $295 million, while depreciation charges relating to administrative expenses increased 28 percent to $48 million. Selling and distribution expenses rose 17 percent to $292 million from $250 million in 2019.
The company employed an average of two hundred and seven workers during the year, up from one hundred and eighty in the 2019 period costing $428 million compared to $406 million in 2019.
Finance cost was negligible at just over $1 million for the year.
Earnings per share came out at 35 cents for the fiscal year. The stock traded at $4.83 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at a PE ratio of 14 times earnings. ICInsider.com is forecasting 55 cents per share for 2021 at a PE of 9 times. Net asset value is $1.85, with the stock selling at 2.6 book value. The company paid a dividend of 8 cents d 20uring the year.
Gross cash flow brought in $260 million but increased working capital reduced the amount marginally to $253 million and payment of dividends amounting to $38 million acquisition of fixed assets amounting to $119 million and the payment of $27 million in taxation left $98.5 million to be added to funds on hand at the start of the year. Current assets ended at $444 million, including inventories of $71 million, receivables of $73 million, cash and bank balances of $297 million. Current liabilities stood at $148 million. At the end of the year, shareholders’ equity stood at $870 billion, with borrowings at just $26 million.

Big gains for some IC TOP 10 stocks

During the past week, Grace Kennedy was the top 10 best performer rising 16 percent to 67 percent, followed by Caribbean Producers 12 percent gain to close the week at $2.63, during a period when stocks continue their climb higher to their highest level since early-April on the Jamaican Stock Exchange Main Market in the past week.

Grace Kennedy gained 16% for the week.

The Junior Market continues to fight in continuing to build on the gains in recent weeks, with moves in both markets confirming the bullish signal technical indicators been flashing.
The movement in the markets resulted in Stanley Motta coming into the Main Market IC TOP 10, replacing Jamaica Producers. The Junior Market Top 10 remained without any new movement in and out, but Jamaican Teas started trading ex split on Friday and closed at $2.05, down from last weeks’ adjusted closing price of $2.23.
This week’s focus: 2020 is now drawing to a close and should lead investors to start the focus on 2021 and some companies that could deliver superior returns. Many of the companies that suffered badly from reduced sales could be some that should be on the investors’ list. Access Financial, Caribbean Producers, Express Catering, Elite Diagnostic, Lasco Financial, NCB Financial are some that could enjoy above-average recovery and then there are entities such as Grace Kennedy, Carib Cement, Berger Paints and Lumber Depot that should get added push from continued buoyancy in the construction sector.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 231 to 394 percent by March 2021 are Caribbean Producers, followed by Elite Diagnostic and Limber Depot. With expected gains of 149 to 260 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are, Berger Paints followed by Radio Jamaica and Carreras in the third position.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, from now to the second quarter in 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating the potential gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 15.5, The Junior Market 13.3, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 7.2 at just 54 percent to the average of the Junior Market. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 9 or 58 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 201 percent and 132 percent down from140 percent last week for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings, indicating greater likely gains for Junior Market stocks than the Main Market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year.  Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

 

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