Scotia Group Falmouth branch
Scotia Group reports a net profit of $3.13 billion for the quarter ending January 2024, down 7 percent from $3.37 billion in January 2023, as credit loss provisions more than doubled to more than $1 billion from $510 million in 2023, with the loan portfolio increasing by 17.4 percent, with a $41 billion addition over the last twelve months to $278 billion and up from $269 billion at the end of October 2023.
According to Management, “Our core loan book continues to perform well with mortgages increasing year over year by 24 percent, consumer loans by 12 percent, credit cards by 12 percent and commercial loans by 17 percent”.
Earnings per share for the quarter ended at $1 and resulted in the dividend payment returning to the bottom of the payout range of 40 to 50 percent, with the Scotia Group’s Board of Directors approving a 60 percent increase in the dividend to 40 cents per stock unit in respect of the first quarter, to be paid on April 17, to stockholders on record as at March 26, up from 25 cents in 2023.
The Main Market ICTOP10 is projected to gain an average of 281 percent by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings, providing better values than the Junior Market with the potential to gain 170 percent over the same period.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
Earnings per share for the six months amount to 34 cents, up from 27 cents in the previous year, with the third quarter ending with 11 cents versus 9 cents in 2022. ICInsider.com’s projects earnings of 55 cents per share in the year to March 2024 and 80 cents in 2025, with the stock trading at $4 at a PE of just 7 times 2024 and 5 times 2025 earnings. With the market averaging over 13 times the current year’s earnings, the stock is rated a buy, with good upside price potential.
For a second consecutive week, the Junior Market ended with minimal price changes, ranging from 4 percent and less and none with a negative price movement, while the Main Market had only two stocks with negative price changes, with Pulse Investments, the highest with a fall of 7 percent to $1.85 and 138 Student Living slipping 3 percent, while Margaritaville popped 18 percent to close at the week at $17.48, Caribbean Producers rose 6 percent to $9.64 following the release of nine months results that saw profit for the second quarter rising 17.6 percent to US$2 million but with the six months results, down marginally to US$3.28 million versus $3.35 million in 2022. Key Insurance rose 5 percent to $2.31 and Palace Amusement gained 4 percent to close at $1.25 following news of a sold-out opening night for the Marley movie that nearly doubled that of the highly successful Black Panther.
The Main Market ICTOP10 is projected to gain an average of 279 percent by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings, providing better values than the Junior Market with the potential to gain 177 percent over the same period.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
The Bank of Jamaica NIR report, states that the reserves represent 23.6 weeks of Estimated Gross Official Reserves in weeks of Goods & Services Imports, down from 25.2 weeks in December 2022.
As was the case for the previous week the markets closed with no addition to the ICInsider.com TOP 10 stocks.
Of great import is that the averages of both markets are now converging around a PE of 20 for close to a third of the market, as the year is coming to a close and with more information available on the full year’s earnings.
Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) raised interest rates in 2021 with the overnight rate landing at 7 percent in November 2022 and has remained there since, with BOJ keeping a tight lid on market rates by the use of Certificate of Deposits with rates mostly around 10 percent on average, to tame inflation that peaked close to 12 percent in early 2023.
Part of the decline in the Junior Market in 2023 is due to an overall level of over-exuberance by investors in 2022, pushing the prices of a limited number of Junior Market stocks to unrealistic levels, with sharp correction for some of these in 2023 and helping to drag the market. The situation in the Main Market was somewhat different with a lack of interest from institutional investors until the final quarter of the year which is reflected in a continuous slide in the Main Market Index throughout the year until the end of September, indeed from a two-year high of 461,783 points on the All Jamaica Composite Index in May 2022 until it bottomed at the end of September 2023 at 344,153 points and put on almost 23,000 points to the end of the year. While the Main Market declined for two consecutive years, the Junior Market was experiencing its first yearly decline since 2020.
Barring increased interest rates, the Jamaican economy should grow just around two percent in 20224 and that ought to be sufficient to help generate increased demand for goods and services and assist many listed companies to increase profits from existing operations. Expanding companies will see above average performances.
The supply of 
Despite the price move since last year, the stock is attractively priced at a PE of 6 based on this year’s projected earnings of $7.50 and 8.30 based on reported the 2023 earnings of $5.54 per share. The valuation compares with an average of 13.7 for the Main Market based on projected 2023 earnings. At an average market PE, the stock would get to $76 based on earnings for 2023 and more, once investors start pricing in 2024 earnings into the price.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market ICTOP 10 stands at 5.3, well below the market average of 13.7 and the Junior Market TOP10 sits at 7.4, just over half of the market, with an average of 13.5
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.