Honey Bun rises 8% to exit ICTOP10

April 22, 2023 by

The Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange recorded solid gains during the past week as the Main Market declined, resulting in three solid gains for the ICTOP10 Junior Market stocks and just one notable move in the performance of the ICTOP10 Main Market as General Accident added 18 percent to its value to be the best performing stock for the week.

General Accident selling supply of stocks is down sharply.

The Junior Market had one change in the TOP10 as Honey Bun moved out for a second time in weeks with a rise of 8 percent, allowing Dolla Financial to come in at number 10. Dolla is likely to enjoy a doubling in profit for the current year, having expanded the loan portfolio dramatically since taking on the billion dollar loan. Investors in the stock can look forward to healthy gains in the stock price during the year.
Main Event, one of the previous week’s top performers that exited the Top 10 with a 6 percent gain to close at $12.95, keeps on rolling on and climbed another 13.5 percent this week to $14.70, up 63.5 percent for the year to date as investors continue to applaud the company’s performance by buying up the stocks as they see more profits to come this year, with the economy fully opened up for entertainment.
The other major price movements during the week were a 9 percent rise for Lasco Distributors, that ended at $2.36 and Honey Bun, up 8 percent to $6.57. There are only two stocks with losses of two percent or less.
In the Main Market, only three stocks recorded declines, but Berger Paints was the only stock with a meaningful move, gaining 8 percent to $8.30.
Interest rates on Bank of Jamaica CDs dipped again at this past week’s auction that, which saw the average rate slipping to 8.21 percent from 8.41 percent at the previous week’s auction. Over the past five months, inflation has been running at less than one percent per annum, which has set the stage for BOJ to act quickly to slash interest rates, a positive development for the market.
The Junior Market’s long history of rising around a month before the release of quarterly results and declining shortly after results are released seems to be starting with a rise of 108 points in the market index this past week, with the supply of some stocks falling sharply.
Honey Bun’s fall from the TOP10 Junior Market list is not the end of the road for this outstanding performer with increased investors’ interest with an expected jump in revenues and profits for the first quarter with the Easter coming at the beginning of April versus the 17th of April last year as well as improvement of gross profit margin that slipped previous year. ICInsider.com expects the price to increase by up to 200 percent this year.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.5, well below the market average of 13.7, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.9 compared with the market at 11.6. The differences are important indicators of the level of likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 246 percent and the Main Market TOP10 by an average of 273 percent, by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The Junior Market has 13 stocks representing 27 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 27, averaging 19, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 16, suggesting this may be the current lowest fair value for Junior Market stocks.
The 16 highest valued Main Market stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 114, with an average of 31 and 21 excluding the highest PE stocks and 20 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate, resulting in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Stock Market, Stocks to watch Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Honey Bun in ICTOP10 as Purity jumps 24%

April 16, 2023 by

The Main Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange recorded solid gains during the past week as the Junior Market declined but that did not show up in the ICTOP10 stocks performance as Junior Market stocks ended with gains and losses with the average gains outdoing declines while the Main Market ended with modest price changes in a week when Consolidated Bakeries (Purity) was the star performer with a 24 percent rise to $2.50.

Consolidated Bakeries

The Junior Market had one change in the TOP10 as Main Event rose 6 percent to $12.95 and moved out of the TOP10, allowing Honey Bun to return after falling out the previous week.
Other major price movements in this past week were a 4 percent rise for Everything Fresh to $1.46, a 17 percent fall to $2.15 for Lasco Distributors and 4 percent decline for Image Plus to $1.95. Trading in Image Plus never resulted in more gains during the week following the previous week’s healthy move as selling continued at the same pace as the week before while buyers seem to have pulled back.
In the Main Market, Key Insurance rose 5 percent to $3.65, while Sygnus Credit Investments fell 5 percent to $11.40 as Guardian Holdings, Berger Paints and JMMB Group declined by 4 percent to $475, $7.70 and $30.31 respectively.
Interest rates on Bank of Jamaica CDs dipped again at this past week’s auction with the average rate slipping to 8.41 percent from 8.49 percent, at the previous week’s auction, with BOJ quarantining $104 billion. At the same time the foreign exchange market enjoyed buoyant flows with more funds entering the market each day than the amount dealers sold.
Another fact worth noting is that the Junior Market has a long history, with the market starting to rise around a month before the release of quarterly results and declining shortly after results are released.
Honey Bun’s return to the TOP10 Junior Market list this past week should enjoy increased investors’ interest with an expected jump in revenues and profits for the first quarter with the Easter coming at the beginning of April versus the 17th of April last year as well as improvement of gross profit margin that slipped last year.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.5 well below the market average of 13.5, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.7 compared with the market at 11.2. The differences are important indicators of the level of likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 255 percent and the Main Market TOP10 an average of 276 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The Junior Market has 11 stocks representing 23 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 28, averaging 20, well above the average of the market. The top half of the market has an average PE of 16, suggesting that this may be a logical value for junior market stocks currently.
The 16  Main Market stocks with the highest value are priced at a PE of 15 to 115, with an average of 31 and 20 excluding the highest PE stocks and 20 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation.
The above average shows the extent of potential gains for the TOP 10 stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Stock Market, Stocks to watch Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Solid profit from concrete growth

April 13, 2023 by

Profit at Jamaica’s sole cement producer, Caribbean Cement Company was flat in the December quarter last year, with $1.48 billion earned compared with $1.5 billion in 2021, profit for the full year to December rose a solid 24 percent to a record $5.4 billion from $4.34 million in 2021.
The improved full year results flowed from an 8.4 percent rise in sales revenue to $25.8 billion, from $23.84 in 2021. Revenues were almost flat for the December quarter at $6.15 billion against $6.04 billion in 2021.
There was a notable improvement in gross profit margin that increased to 44 percent from 41 percent in 2021 as cost of sales rose by a mere 3.3 percent to $14.5 billion from $14 billion in 2021 that includes depreciation of $1.4 billion, down from $1.45 billion in 2021 and fuel and electricity that surged 37 percent from $4.1 billion, to $5.6 billion in 2022. The net effect is that Gross profit rose 15.5 percent for the year, to $11.36 billion from $9.8 billion in 2021. The moderate rise in direct cost, “was mainly attributable to the company’s decision not to undertake its planned major maintenance during the third quarter, compared to 2021,” the company stated in the release containing the results.
Administrative expenses rose close to the rise in revenues by 14 percent to $942 million in the year from $827 million while Selling Distribution and logistics expenses rose just 4 percent to $1.74 billion from $1.67 in 2021. Included in the administrative expenses are Management fees of $200 million, up slightly from $195 million in 2021 and royalty fees of $475 million with none in 2021 and write off of $120 million for non-recoverable GCT costs with none in 2021. Personnel remuneration and benefits amounted to $2.64 billion during the year, up from $2.5 billion in 2021, but actual salaries and wages were modestly lower at $1.97 billion versus $1.98 billion in 2021.
Finance cost declined in the year to $581 million from $671 million in 2021, which include a charge of $402 million during the year and $376 million for 2021 for unwinding discount on the redemption of the preference shares. The company has fully liq uidated the debt and there should be no charge in 2023 for this item
Gross cash flow generated from operations amounted to $8.8 million and was reduced by increased working capital of $5 billion to $3.8 billion. The net cash flow provided funding for the acquisition of fixed assets costing $1.26 billion, the payment of $1.26 billion in dividends. They also paid off the balance of $1.84 billion due on preference shares to Trinidad Cement.
At the end of December, shareholders’ equity stood at $20 billion with long term borrowings at a mere $608 million.
Current assets ended the period at $7.1 billion, up from $4.3 billion in 2021 including trade and other receivables of $650 million, cash and bank balances of $575 million with $5.48 billion of inventories up from $3.44 billion in 2021. Current liabilities ended the period at $6.1 billion, down from $8.5 billion in 2021. Net current assets ended the period at $1.1 billion.
Earnings per share came in at $6.33 when compared to $5.10 in 2021. IC Insider.com forecasts $7.50 per share for the fiscal year, with a PE of 7.7 times current year’s earnings based on the price of $57.50 the stock traded at recently on the Jamaica Stock Exchange Main Market with a net asset value of $23.54 and 2.5 times book value.
The company paid a dividend of $1.53 cents for the first time in 17 years in September last year.
This cost incurred for the unwinding of the discount for the repayment of the preference shares will not recur in 2023 also the write off of non-recoverable GCT cost, countering these savings will be the annual major maintenance that was not incurred in 2022, at the same time Fuel and electricity cost should fall from the Ukraine war induced spike in worldwide oil prices that has since moderated form the peak of more than US$120 per barrel to around $80 currently.
The company outlook was summarized by management, “we will ensure that our operations remain resilient by employing sound cost management strategies in this challenging economic environment.
Additionally, we expect to have a similar or better level of productivity and efficiency of the kiln in the future on completion of our planned major maintenance in 2023. During the previous quarter, the groundbreaking of our major kiln expansion project took place. This important investment will improve the self-sufficiency of the industry in Jamaica to comfortably meet growing demand, while setting the foundation to supply other export markets, effectively strengthening the external sector of our economy and essentially the country’s growth.”
The above expansion plan projected to increase the plant capacity by up to 30 percent should be completed by the second half of 2024 and will lower the unit cost of producing cement if it leads to a sufficient increase in sales volume. That won’t take place until 2025.
The stock is selling at a discount to its normal value but seems to weight down by higher interest rates and a slowdown in activity in the construction sector, but all signs point to lower interest rates in the second half of the year and continuing for a while, as such these negative factors will soon pass. With the expansion to come on stream in 2024, the stock remains a good long term buy.

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Company News, Company Results Tagged With: , , , , ,

Nice gains for ICTOP10 stocks, Purity returns

April 9, 2023 by
Add your HTML code here...

The Main and Junior Markets did not maintain the sharp bounce of the previous week, but most ICTOP10 Junior Market stocks ended with gains. In contrast, the Main Market ended with mostly modest losses, with 138 Student Living rising 5 percent to $5.30 and JMMB Group declining by 5 percent to $31.49, all other changes in the Main Market were two percent or less.

Dr Karlene McDonnough – Chairman of Image Consultants Ltd. The stock came in for increased demand during the week ahead of the release of full-year results.

The Junior Market had one change in its TOP10 list as Iron Rock Insurance and Image Plus climbed 13 percent to $2.27 and $2.03, respectively, while Main Event and Honey Bun rose 5 percent to $12.26 and $6.75, respectively, with the only sizable decline being a 9 percent fall for Tropical Battery to $1.90.
Image Plus never benefitted from any serious IPO bounce seems to be finally finding buying interest and closed the past week with 159,904 shares on the bid at $2.02, 160,746 at $2 and just over 800,000 between $1.90 and $1.95, with 25,987 stocks on offer at $2.03, 81,709 at $2.05 with one big offer of 1.72 million units at S2.50 with smaller offers before the this. There has been healthy trading in the stock recently, with trading of 824,526 units on Thursday. Trading on Wednesday saw 1,153,255 shares changing hands in the stock, with 910,000 units on Tuesday and 1.75 million shares on Monday, which seems to have cleared out a great deal of overhang in the market.
Update on interest rate developments. A number of developments taking place in the economy are worth watching. Following last week’s $35 billion Bank of Jamaica CD auction that saw the average rate coming in at 8.49 percent, this week’s auction saw an offer of $34 billion, with the average rate remaining the same as the previous week with fewer funds chasing the offered amount. Another positive development is the average inflation rate running at 45 percent less than the same time last year and averaging 2.4 percent per annum since November last year. Foreign exchange inflows have been strong, with the NIR growing at $66 million in February and 220 million in March, putting it at a record end of month level as initial data suggest that tourism arrivals and foreign exchange generated by that industry exceed the similar period in 2019, the last year without the impact of covid-19 negatively affecting the sector. On top of those positive developments, corporate profits are expected to enjoy a good bounce for the majority of companies for the first quarter.
The Junior Market has a long term pattern, with the market starting to rise around a month before quarterly results are due and declining shortly after results are released. This is a pattern worth noting that can be built into investment decisions to improve returns.

Consolidated Bakeries Miss Birdie Easter bun. The stock is back in the ICTOP10

Dropping from the TOP10 Junior Market list this past week was Honey Bun, but investors should expect a big jump in revenues and profits for the first quarter, with the Easter coming at the beginning of April versus the 17th of April last year, as well as an improvement of gross profit margin that slipped up last year.
Returning to the TOP10 is Consolidated Bakeries in the number 3 spot. The company is projected to report a solid first quarter profit, with the Easter holidays coming at the start of April compared with April 17 last year and ensuring that mostly all Easter bun sales will be reported in the March quarter unlike 2022. The company reported a profit in 2022 a big improvement over a loss in the previous three years. ICInsider.com projects earnings of 40 cents for 2023 and 75 cents for 2024 with the company benefitting from a full recovery of the local economy and increase efficiency and reduction in borrowings. At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE
Main Market TOP 10 is 5.6, well below the market average of 13.5, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.7 compared with the market at 11.1. The differences are important indicators of the likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 256 percent and the Main Market TOP10, an average of 271 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The Junior Market has 10 stocks representing 21 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 29, averaging 19, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 15, suggesting this may be a logical value for junior market stocks.
The 16 stocks with the highest value in the Main Market stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 115, with an average of 30 and 19 excluding the highest PE stocks and 19 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation.
The above average shows the extent of potential gains for the TOP 10 stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate, resulting in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Stock Market, Stocks to watch Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

ICTOP10 rides big weekly JSE rally

April 3, 2023 by

The JSE Main market surged sharply in the past week.

While the Main and Junior Markets rebounded sharply during last week, ICTOP10 stocks ended with varying movements, with gains and losses in both markets hitting 16 percent. It was an interesting week in which the main market gained over 18,000 points for the week with all days closing with gains including the Friday of the previous week, but it sits at a resistance level and is a signal worth watching.  
The Junior Market put on 200 points since Thursday, March 23 and had one minor negative trading day during the period, however, the last day accounted for nearly half of the above gains.
While Bank of Jamaica held their overnight rates at 7 percent, their CD rate that fell 16 percent in the previous week to an average of 8.85 percent from over 10 percent where it stood for several months, BOJ offered a huge $35 billion this past week, but the average rate fell to 8.49 percent after $70 billion chased the amount offered. Importantly, the central bank cut the stock of CDS it holds from a peak of $109.5 billion on March 3, but at the latest auction, it amounted to $88.85 billion, marginally up from $82 billion on the 17th.
At the end of the past week, in the Junior Market TOP10 four stocks gained and five declined. KLE Group jumped 16 percent to $1.69 and Tropical Battery rose 7 percent to close at $2.08. General Accident dropped 16 percent to $5 and Everything Fresh fell 6 percent to close at $1.45.
The Main Market TOP10 JMMB Group climbed 15 percent to $33.25, Jamaica Broilers gained 12 percent to $37.10, Caribbean Producers popped 7 percent to $9.70 and NCB Financial with a rise of 6 percent to $75. Berger Paints fell 10 percent to $8.20 and 138 Student Living with a fall of 6 percent to $5.05.
The Junior Market has a long term pattern, with the market starting to rise around a month before quarterly results are due and declining shortly after results are released. This is a pattern worth noting that can be built into investment decisions that can improve returns.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.6, well below the market average of 14.2, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.8 compared with the market at 11.4. The differences are important indicators of the level of likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 248 percent and the Main MarketTOP10 by an average of 267 percent, by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The Junior Market has 11 stocks representing 23 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 28, averaging 20.4, well above the average of the market. The top half of the market has an average PE of 16, suggesting that this may be a logical value for junior market stocks currently.
The Main Market 19 highest valued stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 115, with an average of 29 and 21 excluding the most valued stocks and 20.5 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation.
The above average shows the extent of potential gains for the TOP 10 stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

 

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Stock Market, Stocks to watch Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Key Insurance highest ICTOP10 jumps 37%

March 26, 2023 by

Stocks dropped to their lowest levels this past week after falling even lower than they did to close of the previous week as investors continue to shun the market, but the time is not far off that Bank of Jamaica will begin lowering interest rates and fuel a market resurgence as they sent the clearest signal that interest rates have not only peaked but will be headed downwards this past week.

The first signs of an easing of rate came this past week with BOJ CDs rates plunging 16 percent to an average of 8.85 percent from over 10 percent where it stood for several months. Importantly, the central bank cut the stock of CDS it holds from a peak of $109.5 billion on March 3, down to $82 billion at the latest auction, far less than from mid-January to the end of February, as more than $58 billion chasing after the $18 billion that was offered last week. While this happened the foreign exchange market looks very liquid with the rate falling under $152 to one US dollar from $155 earlier in February.
Performance in the past week for the Junior Market TOP10 saw only two stocks rising and seven falling, the majority of the declining stocks registering fell by 3 percent or less. General Accident jumped 20 percent to $5.98, but the bids are not there at the close, to support the price, but selling has abated for this stock currently. Everything Fresh rose 9 percent to close at $1.55 and actually traded at $1.65 during the week. Iron Rock Insurance fell 13 percent to $2 and Caribbean Assurance Brokers lost 6 percent to $1.90.
The Main Market TOP10 saw the highest gaining stock rising just 34 percent, after Key Insurance jumped to $3.50 and was followed by 138 Student Living with an 8 percent rise to $5.40, but Caribbean Producers dropped 8 percent to $9.07. All other movements were 3 percent or less.
The Junior Market has a long term pattern, with the market starting to rise around a month before quarterly results are due and declining shortly after results are released. This is a pattern worth noting that can be built into investment decisions that can improve returns.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.5, well below the market average of 13.2, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.9 compared with the market at 10.6. The differences are important indicators of the level of likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 248 percent and the Main Market TOP10 an average of 274 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The Junior Market has 9 stocks representing 19 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 24, averaging 19, well above the average of the market. The top half of the market has an average PE of 15, suggesting that this may be a logical value for junior market stocks currently.
The Main Market 16 most valued stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 100, with an average of 29 and 19 excluding the highest valued stocks and 18 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation. The above average shows the extent of potential gains for the TOP 10 stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Stock Market, Stocks to watch Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

KLE Group is Main Event in ICTOP10

March 20, 2023 by

Stocks continued to be battered in the past week sending the Junior Market back to January 2022 levels and the Main Market declined for a second week and as far back as September 2018 levels, but some stocks bucked the trend and posted gains.

Main Event

Earnings season delivered a few new results during the past week, with Main Event posting positive profit gains for the January first quarter and seeming poised to earn $1.80 for the year. Fosrich released full year results to December, with profit jumping to $325 million from $199 million in 2021 as revenues climbed a solid 43.4 percent, Dolla Financial posted increased profit of 18 cents per share and should go on to earn 40 cents in 2023, but it is not in ICInsider.com TOP10 reporting solid results that augur well for full year’s profit. Limners and Bards delivered disappointing first quarter results of a mere $7 million, down from $66 million in 2022, as revenues dropped sharply from $443 million to $248 million. Lumber Depot suffered a decline in revenues for the January quarter, with a decline in profit and Blue Power reported an increase in revenues year over year, with a profit rising for their third quarter to January, with profit slipping for the nine months.
Performance in the past week for the Junior Market TOP10 saw four stocks rising and three falling. AMG Packaging gained 16 percent to $2.90, followed by Everything Fresh with a 5 percent gain, Lasco Distributors gained 4 percent to $2.74. Tropical Battery lost 10 percent of its value to close at $2.02 and Image Plus lost 4 percent to end at $1.85.
Stationery and Office Supplies is said to continue to enjoy buoyant business into 2023, rose 3 percent to $15 and dropped out of the Junior Market ICTOP10 along with AMG Packaging as Main Event and KLE Group replaced those that fell out, with the former posting strong first quarter results that point to earnings of $1.80 for the year. KLE is now in, based on the fall in the stock price, but investment in the stock is not without above average risk. They are yet to release 2022 earnings, but they should benefit from pick up in business in their associated restaurant business in which they hold a 49 percent interest, with exposure in Montego Bay that will see added inflows from the considerable pick up in tourist patronage and should have income generated from managing the Bessa apartments in Oracabessa on the north coast of Jamaica.
The Main Market TOP10 saw the highest gaining stock rising just 3 percent while Jamaica Broilers dropped 12 percent to $33.50’ following some large trades in the week, Guardian Holdings followed with a fall of 6 percent to close at $480 and 138 Student Living being down by 4 percent to $5.01.
There have been no changes in the listing in the Main Market ICTOP10 this past week.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.4, well below the market average of 13.3, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.9 compared with the market at 11.3. The differences are important indicators of the likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 245 percent and the Main Market TOP10 by an average of 282 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The Junior Market has 12 stocks representing 25 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 24, averaging 18.3, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 15.
The Main Market 18 highest valued stocks are priced at a PE of 18 to 115, with an average of 30 and 21 excluding stocks with the highest valuations and 20 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation. The above average shows the extent of potential gains for the TOP 10 stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate, resulting in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Stock Market, Stocks to watch Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

169% surge in profit at SOS

March 12, 2023 by

Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS) enjoyed a blow year in 2022, with earnings hitting a record high, after profits jumped 169 percent before tax to $284 million and $257 million after tax from a 55 percent jump in revenues to $1.75 billion from $1.12 billion in 2021. SOS benefitted from one time income from a Gain on disposal of property, plant and equipment of $30 which was partially offset by unusually large impairment losses of $11.5 million.
Income tax on the year’s profit amounts to $27 million compared with a tax credit of $1 million in 2021. Net profit in 2021 was $107 million but gross profit jumped 59 percent from $574 million in 2021 to $912 million for 2022, as gross profit margin slipped during the year to 47.8 percent from 49 percent in 2021.
Administrative and general expenses rose 25 percent to $399 million from $320 million in 2021. Selling and promotional costs rose 64 percent to $132 million from $80 million in the prior year, Impairment loss on financial assets jumped 698 percent to $11.5 million up from $1.4 million and Depreciation and amortisation costs rose 13.7 percent to $30 million up from $26.4 million. There were cost savings during the year with Loss on foreign exchange falling 85 percent to $1.2 million from $8 million in 2021 and Finance costs dropping 22 percent to $8.7 million from $11 million in 2021 as loans were partially repaid.

Allan McDaniels CEO of SOS

Gross cash flow during the year brought in $336 million, which was used to fund increased working capital needs of $84 million, capital expenditure amounting to $50 million, loan repayment of $49 million and dividend payment of $45 million, leaving $97 million to add to cash funds.
At the end of the year, shareholders’ equity grew to $1.1 billion with long term borrowings at $67 million and short term at $43 million. Current assets ended the period at $737 million inclusive of trade and other receivables of $200 million versus $124 million in the prior year. Cash and bank balances rose to $132 million from $34 million in the previous year and inventories climbed to $369 million up from $296 million in 2021. Current liabilities ended at $181 million and resulted in Net current assets of $556 million.
Earnings per share came out at $1.03 cents for the year up from 43 cents in 2021. IC Insider.com forecasts $2 per share for the current fiscal year, with a PE of 7.3 times the current year’s earnings down from 14.5 based on 2021 results, compared with 11.3 for the market based 2023 earnings at $14.50 the stock traded at on Friday on the Jamaica Stock Exchange Junior Market.

Stationery & Office Supplies hit a record high on Friday.

Stationary & Office Supplies – Montego Bay office.

Of note is a 37 percent increase in fourth quarter revenues, which was at a slower pace than the 63 percent increase for the nine months to September and a 45 percent rise in the 4th quarter of 2021, suggesting that the pace for 2023 should be strong, but most likely slower than that of 2022.  The pace in 2023 will be helped by a deal struck with a company in Trinidad to cross sell products as well as the possibility that other deals may be struck with others.
SEEK division produced receipts and other ruled books as well as graph paper for the first time in June last year, using machinery that was purchased from the former operators, they will enjoy increased production for the entire year in 2023 compared with approximately six months in 2022 and contributed $43 million to gross profit for 2022.
With improving profits and shrinking supplies outside of the TOP 10 shareholders, who control 91 percent of the issued shares, the stock is setting up for a stock split that cannot be far off and when given will catapult the stock price upwards.
Going forward, with the Jamaican economy recovering and now growing, the stage is being set for SOS to continue to grow at an attractive pace for a while and deliver above average returns for investors in cash dividends and stock price gains.

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Company News, Company Results Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Everything & Guardian head ICTOP10

March 12, 2023 by

Everything Fresh and Guardian Holdings continue to head the ICInsider.com TOP10 in a week when the Main Market fell 2.7 percent and the Junior Market dropped a hefty 7.8 percent and reversed all the gains of the previous week, but the Investors Choice bid-offer Indicator is flashing positive signals for both markets on Monday.
Guardian Holdings has a commanding lead over its next rival by almost 100 points, but Everything Fresh likely gain of 344 percent is just above Caribbean Assurance at 333 percent, but the latter is currently far more appealing, with the stock selling at a PE of a mere 7 times 2022 earnings and 4.6 times 2023. Everything Fresh PE based on 2022 earnings is at a much higher 17 and 4.5 based on projected 2023 earnings.
Earnings season had two companies in ICInsider.com TOP10 reporting very strong results that augur well for a full year’s profit.

Caribbean Assurance Brokers is selling at a PE of just 7 based on historical earnings.

Scotia Group reported a net income of $3.4 billion for the quarter that ended January 2023, an increase of $2.2 billion or 173 percent over the prior year period as loans the primary driver of profits increased a solid 18.8 percent to $237 billion while deposits grew only 7.7 percent to $4.05 billion and resulted in net interest income surging $2.6 billion as interest expenses actually declined. These results suggest  ICInsider.com forecast for $5 per share may be a bit light with solid prospects that earnings of $5.50 seem possible. It noted that overall comprehensive profit shows a loss of $1 billion after accounting for pension obligations of $9.5 billion and other items of gains.
Jamaica Broilers continues to churn out strong growth in profits with their nine months results more than double that of the prior year while the January quarter is up 27 percent to $1.5 billion as revenues climbed a solid 20 percent after finance cost nearly doubled. With the tourism industry back to normal the company should get a further boost for the rest of 2023. ICInsider.com forecast for $6 per share for the current fiscal year from continuing operations seem well within reach and could be exceeded making it a solid buy for the long haul.

Scotia Group had a significant increase in profits for the January 2023 quarter.

Performance in the past week was mixed for the Junior Market TOP10 but was far better than the near 8 percent fall by that market, with only three stocks rising of which two rose by 2 percent or less. Iron Rock Insurance gained 15 percent this past week to $2.30 after falling 13 percent the previous week. Lasco Distributors fell 6 percent to $2.64, followed by AMG Packaging and Stationery and Office Supplies which fell by 3 percent to $2.51 and $14.50, respectively.
The Main Market TOP10 performed worse than the overall market with only two stocks gaining and six declining. Jamaica Broilers rose 6 percent to $38 as investors warmed to the stock following release of outstanding results, with the price having a far way to run, while JMMB Group a clear winner for the long term, put on just 2 percent to close at $31.01. Key Insurance fell 7 percent to $2.61 followed by a 5 percent for NCB Financial and 138 Student Living to $72 and $5.20 respectively.
There are no new additions in either market to the ICTOP10 this past week.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.5, well below the market average of 13.3, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 6.1 compared with the market at 11.3. The differences are important indicators of the level of likely gains of ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 238 percent and the Main Market TOP10 by an average of 274 percent to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The Junior Market has 11 stocks representing 23 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 25, averaging 19.7, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 16.
The Main Market 16 highest valued stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 98, with an average of 30 and 22 excluding the highest valued stocks and 20 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation.
The above average shows the extent of potential gains for the TOP 10 stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Stock Market, Stocks to watch Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

3 new ICTOP10 stocks after week’s gains

March 5, 2023 by

The Main Market gained 1.3 percent and the Junior Market 2.4 percent over the previous week, the first sign that stocks may be coming back to life, following the end of earning season with a mixed bag of results and the sounding of prospects for a better period ahead, with cost pressures that existed last year in stockpiling supplies to meet demand that squeezed margins have started to recede, with the promise of higher profit margins ahead.

Everything Fresh tops ICTOP10

The period saw many companies reporting solid gains in profit that investors are yet to award with better prices than the results demand, which is not expected to last for long as supplies of many stocks have been declining in recent weeks.
ICTOP10 has three new additions to the Junior Market TOP10 while the Main Market remains steady.
The week closed with rising stocks dominating the Junior Market TOP10. Paramount Trading fell 9 percent in the prior week, led rising stocks this past week, with a gain of 18 percent to $2.35, followed by Main Event, put on 15 percent to land at a new high of $12.39, Lasco Distributors and Lasco Manufacturing rose 8 percent to $2.81 and $4.30, respectively. Iron Rock Insurance fell 13 percent to $2.08 and Tropical Battery dipped 4 percent to $2.20.
Six stocks rose in the Main Market TOP10, with 138 Student Living rising 10 percent to $5.50, the price of Jamaica Broilers rose 9 percent to $36 as investors warmed to the stock following release of outstanding second quarter numbers and the price having a long way to run. Caribbean Producers, that is undervalued, rose 6 percent to $10 as selling pressure eased somewhat.
Price changes resulted in Paramount Trading, Main Event and Lasco Manufacturing exiting the Junior Market TOP10 and replaced by AMG Packaging, Everything Fresh and Stationery and Office Supplies.
AMG Packaging enjoyed improved profit margin in the November quarter compared with that in 2021, even as sales fell slightly in the latest quarter to November, which augurs well for increased profit in the current year, with revenues projected to rise in the year with more business opportunities as the economy continues to grow at a healthy pace. Everything Fresh and Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS) earnings reflect that for the current year. Everything Fresh now heads the Junior market TOP10, having reported profit for an entire year in 2022 for the first time since they released a depressed $16 million profit in 2018. Profit came in at $48 million before tax for 2022, a modest change from $47 million reported for the nine months to September after finance costs rose 43.5 percent in the December quarter over the nine months to September. With 2023 setting up to be the strongest tourist season since 2019, the company is set to see a big jump in business from that sector and profit in 2023, that should see the company earned 30 cents per share, that is why it is in ICTOP10. SOS posted record profits for 2022 with a 169 percent increase before tax from a 55 percent jump in revenues. Of note are a 35 percent increase in fourth quarter revenues and a deal struck with a company in Trinidad to cross sell products that should add to revenues in 2023 and push earnings to $2 per share for the year. With improving profits and shrinking supplies outside of the TOP 10 shareholders, who control 91 percent of the issued shares, the stock is setting up for a stock split that cannot be far off and, when given, will catapult the stock price upwards.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.5, well below the market average of 13.9, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 6.1 compared with the market at 11.8. The differences are important indicators of the level of the undervaluation of the ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 240 percent and the Main Market TOP10 by an average of 284 percent to May 2024, now that TOP10 stocks earnings are based on 2023 profits.
The Junior Market has 13 stocks representing 27 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 26, averaging 19.5, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 17. The above average shows the extent of potential gains for the TOP 10 stocks.
The situation in the Main Market is similar, with the 12 highest valued stocks priced at a PE of 15 to 115, with an average of 32 and 23 excluding the highest valued stocks and 21 for the top half excluding the highest valued stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate, resulting in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Stock Market, Stocks to watch Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,