Archives for February 2016

Cement drops $5.50 – Monday

Caribbean Cement dropped $5.50 on Monday.

Caribbean Cement dropped $5.50 on Monday.

The Jamaica market continued to reflect uncertainty on Monday with a prices both rising a falling in a wide number of stocks in the same trading session. At the close 13 securities rose, 9 fell as 38 changed hands in all market segments. Trading resulted in 1 stock trading at a 52 weeks’ intraday high.
A total of 2,354,315 units valued at just $38,848,571 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 1,010,904 units changing hands, valued at $5,976,571.
Caribbean Cement shed $5.50 to end at $24.50 with 203,998 shares trading, being one of the main stocks to pull down the main market index on Monday with the company reporting lower revenues and profits in the December quarter after taking a hit with redundancy cost. The JSE Market Index suffered a fall of 670.56 points to 156,699.28 the all Jamaica Composite Index dropped 749.39 points to end at 174,076.58 and the JSE combined index dropped 707.90 points to close at 165,348.32.
JSE Sum 29-02-16 IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 22 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 6 with lower offers.
At the end of the market activities, Barita Investments traded 71,090 units and closed at $4, Cable and Wireless rose 5 cents as 27,035 units changed hands to close at $1.50, Carreras closed with a gain of 90 cents at $65, while trading 143,005 units. Gleaner Company fell 15 cents to close at $2.30 as 128,047 shares changed hands, Grace Kennedy ended with 44,179 shares trading to close at $84.50 after rising $2.50, Jamaica Broilers traded 65,926 units to close at $14.50. Jamaica Producers ended with 11,943 shares changing hands at $30,JSE fn qts 29-02-16 Jamaica Stock Exchange traded 3,396 shares to end at $23.50, JMMB Group had 8,250 units changing hands and fell 80 cents to close at $11. Kingston Wharves had 3,000 shares trading with a fall of 25 cents at $11.19, National Commercial Bank had 19,822 shares changing hands to close at $41. Margaritaville Turks traded 400,300 shares to close with a loss of 0.5 US cents at 14.50 US cents, Sagicor Group rose 20 cents with 91,075 shares changing hands at $23.20, Sagicor Real Estate Fund with 5,000 shares changing hands at $11.50. Scotia Group had 16,801 shares changing hands, to close with a gain of $1.19 to end at $32, Supreme Ventures closed at $6 with 45,748 units changing hands and Proven Investments ordinary share traded 47,300 units at 22 US cents.

Juniors eased again on Monday

http://icinsider.com/consolidated-bakeries-profit-falters/

General Accident closed at a new 52 weeks' high on Monday

General Accident closed at a new 52 weeks’ high on Monday

The junior market lost some more ground again on Monday although advancing stocks exceeded declining ones. The market lost 8.37 points to end at 1,947.91 with 14 securities trading of which 4 declined and 5 advanced, including 1 of that traded at a 52 weeks’ high. The market ended with 1,010,904 units changing hands, valued at $5,976,571.
At the close, 2 securities ended with no bid and 6 securities had no stocks being offered for sale. There were 11 stocks closing with bids that were higher than their last selling prices and 3 ended with a lower offer.
In trading, Access Financial traded 4,000 units to close at $17.50, AMG Packaging rose by $1.40 with 223,936 units changing hands, to end at $13.10, C2W Music traded 20,636 units to close at 45 cents, Caribbean Cream gain 55 cents while trading 580 shares to close at $4.25. Caribbean Flavours traded 2,473 units at $8.60, Caribbean Producers had 18,386 units changing hands to close a loss of 45 cents at $4.55, Consolidated Bakeries traded 15,465 units at $1.50 after rising 10 cents but closed with an offer at $1.44. JM sum 29-2-16rDolphin Cove traded 582 shares to gain 33 cents and end at $15.95, General Accident traded 1,000 units at a 52 weeks’ high of $2.80 with a gain of 30 cents, Jamaican Teas ended with 1,364 units changing hands at $7.70, KLE closed at $2.20 with 1,270 shares changing hands with a loss of 30 cents. Lasco Distributors rose by 44 cents and closed with 52,455 units trading to end at $5.50, Lasco Financial ended at $3.23 with 45,300 shares changing hands, Lasco Manufacturing ended trading with 322,957 shares and lost 25 cents to close at $4.10 and Medical Disposables traded 300,500 shares to close at $3.50.

TTSE mostly up on Monday

Prestige Holdings brand - the stock traded at a high on Monday.

Prestige Holdings brand – the stock traded at a high on Monday.

Trading activity recovered from the very low level on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange on Friday to end on Monday, with 292,411 shares valued at $1,647,137 trading. The market ended with 10 active securities of which, 2 rose, 1 fell and 7 remained unchanged. One stock ended at a 52 weeks’ high.
The Composite Index advanced by 1.50 points to close at 1,159.56, the All T&T Index rose 3.48 points to close at 1,899.96 and the Cross Listed Index fell 0.07 points to close at 55.56.
IC bid-offer Indicator| The Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator has turned negative with 5 stocks with bids higher than the last selling price and 9 with offers that were lower.
Gains| Prestige Holdings with 5,000 units changing hands ended at a 52 weeks’ high of $11.01 to record a gain of 40 cents and Trinidad Cement traded 45,492 shares and gained 49 cents to end at $4.
Losses| Sagicor Financial Corporation closed with 6,267 shares TTSE sum 29-02-16changing hands with a fall of 8 cents at $6.72.
Firm Trades| Clico Investments traded 48,887 shares valued at $1,099,996 to close at $22.51, JMMB Group traded 131,656 shares at 60 cents, National Commercial Bank traded 41,479 shares to close at $2.40, Point Lisas ended with 4,830 shares trading, to close at $4. Sagicor Financial Corporation 6.5% US$1 convertible redeemable preference traded 430 shares at US$1.10, Scotia Investments contributed 5,070 shares, to close at $1.80 and Trinidad and Tobago NGL closed at $19 with 3,300 units trading.

Mixed trading on Monday

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JSE Int Cht 26-02-16The Jamaica Stock Exchange is undergoing mix fortunes in losses in the early morning session on Monday with the junior market stock index rising and majors falling. After 75 minutes of the market opening, 30 securities traded, accounting for only 717,672 shares changing hands. A total of only 3 stocks fell and 10 rose.
The all Jamaica Composite Index lost 128.70 points to 174,697.27, the JSE Market Index fell 115.16 points to 157,254.68, the JSE combined index gained 81.15 points to 166,137.37 and the junior market index rose 21 points to 1,977.28.
Caribbean Cement fell $4 with 36,000 shares to be at $26, after the company reported full year results to December last year with earnings of $1.82 after an exceptional charge and one off income. Carreras traded just 100 but gained $1.60 to $65.70, Gleaner Company traded 123,047 but fell 35 cents to $2.10.

Witco records $515.5m profit

Witco profit rose 5.4% in 2015

Witco profit rose 5.4% in 2015

West Indian Tobacco (Witco) recorded a 5.9 percent increase in profit before taxation of $693.5 million for the year ending December 2015, with profit after taxation rising by 5.4 percent to $515.5 million, from $489.2 million in 2014.The improved results stemmed from a moderate increase in revenues of $1.277 billion compared to $1.25 billion and a slight fall in cost. Cost of sales fell from $234 million to231 million while distribution costs rose moderately to $13.57 million from $12,776 million in 2014. Administrative expenses fell to $81 million from $89 million and other operating expenses rose sharply to $33.45 million from $26.55 million incurred in the previous year.
The company is recommending the approval of a final dividend of $2.18 per share at the Annual Meeting in April and said that when added to the interim dividends of $3.70, will result in a total dividend of $5.88 per share for 2015. If approved, the final dividend will be paid on 6 May 2016. Dividends paid based on the 2014 profit were $5.51.
The lack of meaningful growth in revenues and profit will mean a price increase is not far away but the recession in Trinidad and Tobago could see a delay in any price increase.
The stock traded at $126.30 on Friday giving it a PE of 20.6, with earnings per share for 2015 being $6.12.

Election results validate IC Insider report

JLP leaderIC Insider predicted the election outcome in the last general election in Trinidad and Tobago and this week’s Thursday election in Jamaica. In our posting on February 21, the report stated that an analysis of poll numbers since 2014 and the number of eligible voters suggest that Thursday’s general elections in Jamaica could result in a shocker and a major shift in parliament. For the People National Party to win the 2016 elections will require voter turn out to be more than 50 percent.
Jamaica Labour Party polled 436,459 votes or 50.13 percent of the votes cast and the People’s National Party 432,353 votes or 49.66 percent of the total of 870,663 votes just around 2,000 votes more than in 2011. The JLP polled 31,301 more votes than in 2011 while the PNP lost 31,927. Just under 48 percent of the electorate voted. The voter turnout although lower than in 2011 turnout as a percentage of voters list is consist with the level of the population that voted of 32 percent in both elections and better than the participation rate from 1993 to 2007.
IC Insider stated in the article ahead of the elections that “polls done from late 2014 puts the Labour party support consistently at 25 percent except for the temporary decline shown in the Don Anderson polls in January to 23.2 percent when political activity was low keyed. Based on error factors in past polls, the base for the JLP is around 28 percent which is consistent with polls done in 2015 that would give them 510,835 votes. This would be an increase of 105,677 over the 405,000 votes they received in 2011 and well over the 464,280 the PNP got then”.
“It is more difficult to say what the PNP numbers will work out at in the end but it should be at least close to their numbers for the last election. Added to this it is also difficult to see voter turnout of 53 percent in the 2011 being exceeded by much, if at all, which would put the PNP support at 25 percent of the electorate or a few thousand votes less than in 2011”.
Portia“If the PNP does not increase their support by much, they will be relegated to the back benches of Parliament after Thursday’s polls. As it turned out the PNP based on preliminary results suffered a fall in the number of voters casting the ballot for them while the JLP increased theirs, but both parties failed to motivate persons who said they were going to vote to do so hence a fall in the level of participation”.
The results suggest one important factor and seems to explain why the turn out appear low even as the numbers are slightly higher than the tally for the 2011 elections. The elections seemed to have been focused around a third of the seats, maybe even less, some that were marginal and a few others that there was special interest in. Additionally, the infighting over candidates in some of the PNP’s constituencies may have had an overhang effect, thus negatively affecting its support.

Just 20,366 TTSE shares trade on Friday

Scot Inv buld Trading activity sank to a very low level on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange on Friday, with a mere 20,366 shares valued at $336,803 trading. The market ended with 12 active securities of which, 3 rose gained, 3 fell and 6 remained unchanged, including 2 ending at 52 weeks’ highs and 2 at 52 weeks’ lows.
The Composite Index lost 1.87 points to close at 1,158.46, the All T&T Index fell 4.52 points to close at 1,896.48 and the Cross Listed Index gained 0.11 points to close at 55.63.
IC bid-offer Indicator| The Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator has turned negative with 6 stocks with bids higher than the last selling price and 10 with offers that were lower.
Gains| Sagicor Financial Corporation closed with 3,733 shares changing hands with a rise of 10 cents at a 52 weeks’ high of $6.80. Republic Financial Holdings rose 3 cents to close at $112.15, with 580 shares changing hands and Scotia Investments contributed 2,500 shares while gaining 6 cents, to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $1.80, the equivalent of J$33.90, but the stock traded at J$30 in Jamaica.
TTSE sum 26-02-16 Losses| Clico Investments traded 7,685 shares to close at $22.51 with a loss of 4 cents, National Enterprises closed with 312 shares changing hands at $14.45 after losing 33 cents, to close at a 52 weeks’ low andScotiabank contributed only 323 shares while dropping 14 cents to close at a 52 weeks’ low of $59.75.
Firm Trades| First Citizens closed with 142 shares changing hands at $35, National Flour traded 1,000 shares to close at $1.80. Point Lisas ended with 170 shares trading, to close at $4, Trinidad and Tobago NGL closed at $19 with 1,518 units trading, Trinidad Cement traded 2,400 shares at $3.51 and West Indian Tobacco closed at $112.30 with 3 shares changing hands.

JSE post-election slip – Friday

The JSE retreated on Friday after the general election.

The JSE retreated on Friday after the general election.

With the Jamaica Labour Party winning Thursday’s general election, the Jamaica Stock Exchange main market continued to reflect uncertainty on Friday as 14 securities declined, 15 gained as 33 changed hands in all market segments in a shortened session. Trading resulted in 1 stock trading at 52 weeks’ intraday high.
A total of 9,546,869 units valued at $79,702,541 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 2,076,968 units changing hands, valued at $12,049,340.
The JSE Market Index suffered a fall of 303.49 points to 157,369.84 the all Jamaica Composite Index dropped 339.16 points to end at 174,825.97 and the JSE combined index dumped 488.18 points to close at 166,056.22.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 17 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 3 with lower offers.
JSE Sum 26-02-16At the end of the market activities, Cable and Wireless lost 5 cents as 4,538,475 units changed hands to close at $1.45, Caribbean Cement fell $3 to close at $30 with 22,375 shares changing hands, Carreras closed with a loss of $1.90 at $64.10, while trading 15,400 units. Ciboney rose by 5 cents to end at 19 cents, with 50,000 shares trading, Gleaner Company traded with a gain of 2 cents to close at $2.45 as 200,978 shares changed hands, Grace Kennedy ended with 25,417 shares trading to close at $82 after falling 50 cents, Jamaica Broilers traded 154,686 units to close at $14.50. Jamaica Stock Exchange traded 5,000 shares with a gain of 50 cents to end at $23.50, JMMB Group had 2,655 units changing hands with a rise of $1.39 to close at $11.80.JSE fn qts 26-02-16 Kingston Wharves had 14,225 shares trading with a gain of 5 cents at $11.45, National Commercial Bank had 254,071 shares changing hands with a gain of 60 cents to close at $41. Pulse Investments traded 20,000 shares with a rise of 48 cents to end at $3.70, Sagicor Group fell 50 cents with 515,847 shares changing hands at $23, Sagicor Real Estate Fund fell 45 cents with 49,758 shares changing hands at $11.50, Salada Foods traded 25,826 units at $8.50 after falling 75 cents. Scotia Group had 305,159 shares changing hands, to close with a loss of $1.19 to end at $30.81, Supreme Ventures closed at $6 with 17,200 units changing hands and Proven Investments ordinary share traded 804,200 units at 22 US cents after rising 1 US cent.

Juniors slip again on Friday

Lasco Distributors price dropped sharply on Friday.

Lasco Distributors price dropped sharply on Friday.

The junior market ceded ground again on Friday although advancing exceeded declining stocks as 5 stocks declined and 7 advanced leading to fall of 1.1 percent in the index. The market lost 22.36 points to end at 1,956.28 with 14 securities trading, 1 of which traded at 52 weeks’ intraday high. The market ended with 2,536,210 units changing hands, valued at $12,049,340.
At the close, 2 securities ended with no bid and 7 securities had no stocks being offered for sale. There were 7 stocks closing with bids that were higher than their last selling prices and none ended with a lower offer.
In trading, Access Financial fell 50 cents while trading 78,424 units to close at $17.50, AMG Packaging rose by 50 cents with 604 units changing hands, to end at $14.50, C2W Music traded 100,000 units and rose 2 cents to be at 45 cents, Caribbean Cream fell by 10 cents while trading 18,220 shares to close at $3.70. Caribbean Producers had 126,206 units changing hands to close at $5, General Accident traded 21,315 units at $2.50 with a gain of 10 cents,JM sum 26-2-16 Honey Bun ended with 17,122 units changing hands at $13.80 after rising 20 cents, Knutsford Express closed at $18.51 with 3,500 shares changing hands. Lasco Distributors lost 89 cents and closed with 809,400 units trading to end at $5.06, Lasco Financial rose 3 cents to end at $3.23 with 140,450 shares changing hands, Lasco Manufacturing ended trading with 1,040,376 shares and gained 40 cents to close at $4.35. Medical Disposables traded 22,000 shares to close 11 cents higher, at $3.50 after it traded at an intraday high of $3.70, tTech closed with a gain of 34 cents at $4.85 with 33,593 shares trading and Derrimon Trading preference share traded 125,000 units to close 1 cent lower at $2.15.

JLP win pollsters blew it – election 2016

JLP man -2-16The Jamaica Labour Party won the general elections after a number of polls and forecast called it for the governing Peoples National Party. Two groups that the public is not used to for forecasting elections made a fool of themselves, suggesting the PNP would win at least 40 seats.
According to the university forecasters, the PNP chance of winning the election was down from 60 percent to 56 percent, since the refusal of the party to participate in the election debates. The forecast done by Dr Christopher Charles and Gleasha Reid was laughable when viewed against other facts and historical trends. For one, pollsters that have had a fairly good track record were pointing to, at best, a close election victory for the PNP, in what looked like a close race. One pollster out of Trinidad, did get the marginal seats right, when the polls they did showed a strong swing to the JLP.
The results of the 2016 election, is a clear indication that polls reflect the position at the time the poll is taken and does not necessarily forecast future outcome. The poll that the PNP seemed to have used to call the election, did not reflect the real party standing. IC Insider suggested, that past polls have always reflected an incumbency bias, as high as 5 percent, ahead of the actual official election period, this is pretty much what happened as the January polls by Anderson had the PNP at 27.5 percent and the JLP at 23.2 percent. When the JLP’s support is adjusted by the 5 percent, it placed both parties in a dead heat with a slight lead for the JLP. The polls show that both parties lost active support since September last year. The December polls show that the PNP lost 2 percentage points and the JLP a much larger 6.4 percentage points, taking the latter below the core position held from 2014 to June, of 25 percent.
About the January polls, IC Insider said “If the latest poll numbers were to hold come election day, the PNP would end up with about 54 percent to 46 percent for the JLP of the votes, on a head to head race, which would put the PNP slightly ahead of the 2011 election, when they took 53.40 percent of the votes, to the JLP 46.60 percent.
Interestingly, while the Anderson polls were pointing to a big win for the PNP, RJR News carried on their website, a story of a then recent canvass done buy the PNP in which Paul Burke says they are sure to win 32 seats, with 10 of the rest they have in doubt.
RJR News has obtained a copy of the report which outlines that the Party is sure of winning 32 of the 63 Parliamentary seats. Of the remaining 10 seats from the 42 which were won by the PNP in 2011, two are deemed at risk of being lost and eight have been declared hard to win”. This information does not reflect an outcome as indicated by Anderson polls.
There are a number of lessons from election 2016. Polls by themselves need to be examined against prevailing as well as past developments, to ensure they are in keeping with what the results are indicating. Events may take place that change the direction of the likely outcome, this is what may have happened this time around.
The polls showing the JLP at 25 percent of the electorate seem to suggest a solid base support, that is why IC Insider posted the need for the election turnout to be higher than 50 percent for the PNP to win. IC Insider had pointed out that the pollsters have never gotten the voter turnout right the question this time, with potential votes around 59 percent, it seems that the usual 15-20 percent difference was a bit too high.

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