Republic Financial Holdings recorded the biggest price movement in trading on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange on Friday, in jumping $2.25 in exchanging 9,667 shares, to end at a 52 weeks’ high of $106.01.
For the second trading day, the market enjoyed heightened levels of participating securities trading on Friday with 19 securities changing hands against 18 trading on Thursday.
Trading closed with the price of 6 rising, 5 declining and 8 remaining unchanged, leading to the Composite Index rising 8.20 points on Friday to 1,229.38, the All T&T Index adding 7.51 points to 1,702.40, while the Cross Listed Index rose 1.22 points to close at 101.69.
The market ended trading of 184,966 shares at a value of $3,912,783, compared to 674,102 shares at a value of $4,897,703 changing hands on Thursday.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading closed with 4 stocks ending with higher bids than the last selling prices and 3 with lower offers.
Stocks closing with gains | First Caribbean International Bank finished trading 300 units and rose 9 cents to $8.49, Grace Kennedy closed with an increase of 29 cents to $2.99, with 30 stock units changing hands, Guardian Holdings ended trading of 562 units after gaining 3 cents to settle at $16.75, National Flour finished trading 2,979 units and rose by 5 cents to $1.65, and Trinidad & Tobago NGL concluded trading with a rise of 6 cents to $29.31, after exchanging 1,700 shares.
Stocks closing with losses| Clico Investments closed with a loss of 1 cent and at $19.50, with 41,149 stock units changing hands, Prestige Holdings closed with a loss of 4 cents and settled at a 52 weeks low of $7.52, trading 30,234 units, Sagicor Financial shed 6 cents and completed trading at $7.70, with 63,499 stock units changing hands, Scotiabank lost 5 cents and settled at $64.85, with 191 units trading and Unilever Caribbean ended trading 75 cents lower to close at a 52 weeks’ low of $25.50, with 910 stock units changing hands.
Stocks trading with no price change| Angostura Holdings completed trading at $15.76, with 11,122 stock units changing hands, Calypso Macro Index Fund traded 4,974 shares to close at $15.81, First Citizens closed at $32.70, after exchanging 1,870 shares, JMMB Group ended at $1.70, after trading 3,136 shares, Massy Holdings ended at $47, in exchanging 406 shares, National Enterprises completed trading at $8.96, with 150 stock units changing hands, Trinidad Cement ended at $2.75, after trading 1,787 shares and West Indian Tobacco settled at $89, with 10,300 units changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.
Republic jumped $2.25 in TTSE trading – Friday
Jump in number of TTSE stocks trading – Thursday
The Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange had an increase in the number of listings trading on Thursday with 18 securities changing hands against 14 trading on Wednesday.
Trading closed with the price of 5 rising, 4 declining and 9 remaining unchanged, leading to the Composite Index rising 0.03 points to 1,221.18, the All T&T Index adding 0.60 points to 1,694.89, while the Cross Listed Index shed 0.08 points to close at 100.47.
The market ended trading of 674,102 shares at a value of $4,897,703, compared to 680,826 shares at a value of $23,759,560 changing hands on Wednesday.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading closed with 7 stocks ending with higher bids than the last selling prices and 5 with lower offers.
Stocks closing with gains | Ansa Merchant finished trading with a rise of 23 cents, ending at $38.25, after exchanging 800 shares, Clico Investments gained 1 cent and settled at $19.51, with 85,380 stock units changing hands, Sagicor Financial rose 1 cent and settled at a 52 weeks’ high of $7.76, with 3,957 stock units changing hands, with the stock closing with the bid at $106 to buy 3,400 units. Trinidad Cement finished 5 cents higher at $2.75, after exchanging 4,500 shares and West Indian Tobacco concluded trading of 10,000 units and gained 28 cents to close at $89.
Stocks closing with losses| Guardian Holdings lost 2 cents and concluded an exchange of 5,300 units at $16.72, JMMB Group ended trading 2 cents lower at $1.70, after exchanging 14,732 shares, NCB Financial Group concluded trading with a loss of 1 cent at $5.74, after exchanging 8,000 shares and One Caribbean Media traded 500 shares with a loss of 11 cents to close at $12.
Stocks trading with no price change| Angostura Holdings settled at $15.76, with 1,000 stock units changing hands,First Citizens ended at $32.70, after exchanging just 644 shares, Grace Kennedy settled at $2.70, with 505,007 stock units changing hands, Massy Holdings completed trading at $47, after exchanging 12,000 shares, National Enterprises settled at $8.96, with 200 stock units changing hands, National Flour concluded trading of 3,400 units at $1.60, Point Lisas settled at $3.62, with 15,857 stock units changing hands, Prestige Holdings concluded market activity at $7.56, with 363 units and Trinidad & Tobago NGL ended at $29.25, after exchanging 2,462 shares.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.
6 TTSE stocks rise – Tuesday
The Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange, closed with the Composite Index rising 0.09 points to 1,220.82, the All T&T Index fell 0.80 points to 1,693.64, while the Cross Listed Index rose 0.14 points to 100.55.
At close, 14 securities changed hands, with the price of 6 rising, 1 declining and 7 remaining unchanged, against 15 trading on Monday.
The market ended trading of 1,593,443 shares valued $9,376,766, compared to 1,615,551 shares valued $8,764,394, changing hands on Monday.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading closed with 4 stocks ending with higher bids than the last selling prices and 5 with lower offers.
Stocks closing with gains| Clico Investments rose 1 cent and ended at $19.51, with 51,806 stock units changing hands, JMMB Group rose 2 cents to $1.72, after exchanging 7,500 shares, Republic Financial Holdings closed with a gain of 1 cent to end at a 52 weeks’ high of $103.76, after exchanging 435 shares, Sagicor Financial gained 5 cents and ended at $7.75, with 47,760 stock units changing hands, Trinidad & Tobago NGL finished trading 8,097 shares after rising 5 cents and settled at $29.25, and West Indian Tobacco closed with an increase of 6 cents and completed trading at $88.50, with 12,526 units.
Stocks closing with losses| Guardian Holdings shares fell 29 cents and completed trading of 128,540 units at $16.60.
Stocks trading with no price change| Angostura Holdings ended at $15.75, with 312 stock units changing hands, First Caribbean International Bank completed trading at $8.40, with an exchange of 70,220 units, First Citizens settled at $32.65, after exchanging 4,457 shares, Grace Kennedy ended at $2.70, with 1,251,820 stock units changing hands, Massy Holdings closed at $47, after exchanging 5,240 shares, One Caribbean Media concluded trading at $12.11, after exchanging 115 shares and Scotiabank completed trading of 75 units at $64.94.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.
Review of 2018 stock market forecast
“ Assessment of the market, suggests that 2018 could be a grand year, with overall price gains likely to be in excess of 40 percent”, a quote from IC Insider.com in February, this year.
“Based on projected earnings for 2018, the average PE ratio suggests that main market stocks should grow by 26 percent. Falling interest rates could add another 20 percent to gains during the year, bringing overall gains in excess of 40 percent.”
“Technical readings of the market have the main market heading initially to around 390,000 points or 23 percent ahead of the December close, for the all Jamaica Index, before resistance sets in and then moving much higher, later on’ the IC Insider.com forecast for 2018 stated.
With almost three more months to go, before the year ends, the main market is broken through the 390,000 points mark to be up 31.7 percent for the year to date, there seems no stopping it for now.
The report in February stated that the main market was caught in a wedge formation, trading just below the upper end of channel that can be traced to late 2015. The wedge could hold the market in consolidation mode for a short time, a month or two, before breaking out, most likely to the upside.
IC Insider.com projects that many of the main market heavy weights will find it tough to repeat the strong gains they enjoyed in 2017, if that is the case, their impact on the market index is likely to be less than for 2017. Another factor that could make a repeat of 2017 tough, is the movement of interest rates. Last year, Treasury bill rates fell 29 percent from 6.56 percent to 4.83 percent, that level of decline, is unlikely to happen in 2018, even as some of the decline in the latter part of 2017 is yet to be fully reflected in the prices of stocks to date and should positively affect prices in 2018. IC Insider.com is forecasting rates on 182 days Treasury bill hitting 3 percent by the end of the 2018 first quarter. Treasury bill rates in 2018 at 1.7 percent, have fallen more sharply than in 2017.
The original piece stated that “there are a number of other factors at play that are set to impact the market. Increasing employment is taking place with the highest number of persons employed in the country’s history. Attendant with that is the sharp fall in unemployment from more than 16.3 percent in 2013, to just over 10 percent in 2017. The annual net employment is growing around 30,000 persons per year and that could rise as the economy gains steam. This will mean more spending and increased tax collection for government. Alpart resumption of Alumina production is a big positive for the overall economy, for increased government revenues and more demand for local goods and services, some of which are provided by listed companies. The tourism sector is enjoying strong growth, apart from increasing foreign exchange intake for the country, will have direct impact on Jamaica Producers and Sagicor X Fund. Jamaica seems to be going through a construction boom with several new buildings under construction, Caribbean Cement and Berger Paints should benefit considerably from such developments.”
“More listings on the stock market will result in increased fee income for JSE and brokerage houses, from increased trading volumes.”
The TOP 10 stocks include a few surprises while there are others that sit just outside the top stocks that investors may still want to keep a keen eye on. Investors should be looking beyond 2018 as medium term gains beyond 2018 could be strong for stocks that will benefit from current developments, long term.
The TOP 10 selection is selling well below the average PE of the Main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at just over 6.3 versus nearly 12 at the end of 2017.
Barita Investments moved more into fee based income and that is working well for them, with sharp growth, while net interest income stagnates. The prospects for continued strong growth in fee income continues with more investors seeking better returns than in the fixed interest market. The company should see a change in ownership soon and that could see a more aggressive approach to management that could optimize returns from exiting business and newer lines. Unrealized gains on investment ought to be factored into its earnings in valuing the stocks and that would boost its value considerably, the market is not paying attention.
Berger Paints is set to be a big winner with increasing sales coming from a buoyant construction sector resulting in increased profit and what IC Insider.com expects to be a healthy dose of dividend payments. It could become the next Carreras from a dividend yield standpoint but with growing profits. The company will benefit from lowering of overhead cost which was evident in 2017.
Jamaica Broilers continues to grow organically and from new business being acquired. Growth will continue as the Haitian market deliver greater returns form a growing market while the poultry demand in Jamaica continues to grow.
Caribbean Cement will benefit from lower operating cost, increased sales and a planned cut in financing of the lease which is said will cut hundreds of millions of dollars out of it cost that could come close to $2 per share per annum.
Palace Amusement Company, currently enjoying sell out cinemas with block buster hit, is one of those unusual choices. It enjoys minimal trading but it could surprise on the upside if all goes well. Growth in the economy and increased employment will help to boost patronage going forward and will aid in profit growth as well.
JMMB Group put out outstanding Q3 results with a 39 percent increase in profit and strong gains in revenues, auguring well for 2019 outcome.
The growth potential remains strong and investors in the stock will reap rich rewards down the road. Just one stock that requires patience. By the way fees and commission income jumped an impressive 71 percent to $512 million in the quarter and 53 percent in the nine months, over the similar period in 2016 and should continue to do so going forward.
Radio Jamaica continues to disappoint with below expected revenues and profit. It could return to favour but needs to generate more income from advertising. This is one to accumulate for a payoff down the road.
The other three stocks, Sterling Investments, Grace Kennedy and Sagicor Group are undervalued and could deliver some decent returns to patient investors.
Below the TOP 10 are strong candidates to deliver decent returns this year and beyond, the list includes NCB Financial that is on a strong growth trajectory and recently listed Wisynco Group that should generate earnings around $1.10 for the 2019 fiscal year that starts in July.