The conventional wisdom, according to political pundits, is that a high turnout for elections favours the challengers and a low one, the government, but they don’t really say what is a low turnout? The latest polls show Anderson projecting 58 percent turnout and Johnson 62 percent.
The big question is that high or low? The answer, it is very high but we are unlikely to see anything that high, but even at 50 percent, it will be the highest number of voters ever with 912,205 or 42,767 more than in 2011, that would mean only 24 percent of the increased numbers on the voters list since 2011 would be voting.
The 2011 election saw the PNP picking up 464,280 votes to the JLP’s 405,158, for the PNP is was 59,000 more than in 2007 while the JLP got 5,000 less than in 2007.
Jamaican pollsters have consistently failed to accurately predict the out turn in Jamaican general elections going back for many elections. No one has done a study as to the reasons. In August 2007 Anderson showed an improbable 82% of the voters saying they would vote. Bill Johnson had it at 80 percent. It turned out that 61 percent voted, that is a huge difference. In 2002 Anderson had it at 78 percent, the actual was 59 percent and in 1997 the forecast was 79 percent versus actual of 65 percent. In 2011 the forecast was 78 percent by Anderson and Johnson 74 percent massively off from the actual.
Jamaican pollsters are not the only ones in the Caribbean to get the turnout wrong but those in Trinidad don’t seem as badly off as in Jamaica.
Trinidadians went to the polls in general elections late 2015 and two set of pollster got the outcome wrong. It appears that the main reason is an over estimation of voter turnout. IC Insider projected that the PNM would have won based on the results of one poll finding and plotting the data against the results of the previous election.
That poll result released on the Sunday ahead of the polls showed a voter turnout of 74 percent, a level that Trinidad and Tobago has not seen since 1961. In the 2010 elections, the turnout was 69.45 percent, 66.03 percent in 2007 and 69.64 percent in 2002, next closet was 1991 with 65.76 percent. IC Insider stated that based on the pattern of recent years it would be surprising if the turnout exceeded 70 percent and that could make a huge difference to the final election results. In the end the turnout fell well below 70 percent, at 66.84.
Turnout at the last elections in Jamaica, was just over 53 percent, based on history that was low compared with previous elections but was it really that low? A look at the number of persons voting tells a different story. Political pundits say that the 2011 election had a low turnout, and if so favoured the government party but they lost. The fact is that the adage the pundits constantly quote is not based on all the facts. They focus on the level of turnout rather than what the overall numbers are saying. As it the 2011 elections had the highest turnout in the history of the country with 869,438 voters going to the polls, 52,878 more than in 2007 while 2007 had 47,802 more voters than 2002. If the election this week has the same level of turnout as in 2011 it would result in a massive 962,486 voters going to the polls or a massive 93,048 more voters.
If Johnson is right, his poll estimate of 62% would result in 1,131,134 voters or 261,696 more voters exercising their rights to determine the government for the next 5 years, a figure that is more than the increase of the voters list. In the case of Anderson it would result in 1,058,158 votes or 188,720 more votes than in 2011 and would in fact be a huge turnout of voters even as the figures on the surface suggest a relatively low turnout. Even the Johnson polls that showed 55 percent of voters indicating that they will definitely vote would result in a massive voter turnout of nearly 1 million votes.
More retreating for JSE on Friday
Seprod traded at 52 weeks’ intraday high on Friday at $22.10.
A total of 7,670,934 units valued at $79,145,756 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 1,035,881 units changing hands, valued at $5,711,682.98.
The JSE Market Index rose 64.41 points to 157,387.02 the all Jamaica Composite Index gained 71.98 points to end at 174,845.16 and the JSE combined index dumped by 463.27 points to close at 168,117.47.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 9 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 5 with lower offers.
At the end of the market activities, Barita Investments retreated after the company posted lower earnings in the December quarter of $27.7 million versus $45.6 million as 10,000 units traded to close with a loss of 40 cents at $4.20. Berger Paints lost 49 cents to end at $4.21, with 5,070 units traded, Cable and Wireless closed with a loss of 1 cent as 619,883 units changed hands at $1.58. Caribbean Cement fell 50 cents to close at $30 with 31,123 shares changing hands, Carreras dropped $1 to close at $66, while trading 6,072 units, Ciboney declined by 6 cents to 15 cents with 2,955,517 shares trading, Gleaner traded 113,790 shares but fell 4 cents to $2.46. Grace Kennedy ended with 8,369 shares trading to close at $82.25 after gaining 70 cents. Jamaica Broilers jumped $1.15 with 647,438 units to close at $14.90, Jamaica Stock Exchange ended with 46,000 shares trading but rose 40 cents to close at $22.35, JMMB Group had 22,851 units changing hands at $11. 
Kingston Wharves had 7,260 shares trading with a gain of 5 cents at $11.40, Mayberry Investments traded 35,970 units to close at $4.5 for a decline of 5 cents, National Commercial Bank traded 109,827 shares to close at $41 after gaining 70 cents, while Pan Jamaican traded 14,727 shares with a fall of $1.30 to end at $94.70. Radio Jamaica traded 1,414 units but fell 30 cents to $4.30, Sagicor Group fell 1 cent with 469,568 shares changing hands at $22.10, Scotia Group had 1,242,641 shares changing hands to close with a gain of 50 cents to end at $33.50. Scotia Investments had 5,174 units changing hands at $28 after rising $1. Seprod closed at $22, with 26,364 shares trading, Supreme Ventures fell 5 cents to close at $5.85 with 170,772 units changing hands, JMMB Group 5.75% preference share traded 35,000 at $1.06 and Proven Investments preference share traded 40,000 units at $5.
JSE market dived sharply – Tuesday
Jamaican Stock Exchange closed at a new all-time high of $22.50.
A total of 4,504,769 units valued at $138,949,178 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 1,008,928 units, valued at $4,603,766.
The JSE Market Index dived 3,286.73 points to 159,171.06 the all Jamaica Composite Index dropped 3,673.11 points to end at 176,838.93 and the JSE combined index dipped by 3,413.10 points to close at 170,670.43.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 10 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 with lower offers.
At the end of the market activities, Berger Paints fell 18 cents to end at $4.80, with 50,576 units traded, Cable and Wireless lost 9 cents with 268,452 units changing hands at $1.60, Caribbean Cement fell 90 cents to close at $26.60 with 18,305 shares changing hands. Carreras traded as high as $65.70, but closed with a gain of 90 cents, to end at a 52 weeks’ high of $65 while trading 625,721 units, Grace Kennedy ended with 562,543 share trading with a loss of $1 to close at $83, Jamaica Broilers had 17,581 shares trading with a loss of 95 cents at $14. Jamaica Stock Exchange traded 3,403 shares with a rise of $2.50 to close at a 52 weeks’ high $22.50, JMMB Group dropped $1 in trading 76,393 units at $12, Kingston Wharves had 21,850 shares trading at $11.40, Mayberry Investments fell 40 cents to close at $4.50 with 41,436 units traded, 
after trading at a 52 weeks’ intraday high of $5.08 National Commercial Bank traded 396,112 shares to close at $40 after falling by $2, Pan Jamaican Investment traded 49,943 units with a loss of $1.45 to end at $94.55, Scotia Group had 326,093 shares changing hands to close at $34, Scotia Investments had 261,404 units changing hands at $26.55 after dropping $3.25. Seprod rose $2 to close at $22, with 69,528 shares trading, Supreme Ventures declined by 55 cents to close at $5.90 with 240,000 units changing hands. Proven Investments ordinary share traded at 22 US cents with 41,720 units, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.50% preference share traded 296,000 at $2.15 and Proven Investments preference share traded 97,524 units to close at $5.
More FX sold as J$ slips – Monday
Trading in the Jamaican foreign exchange market ended Monday with outflows more than $8 million than inflows, with dealers buying the equivalent of US$77,059,769 and selling US$85,477,235, in contrast with US$59,840,782 purchased and US$63,107,330 sold on Friday.
In US dollars trading, dealers bought US$73,434,983 compared to US$56,067,039 on Friday, with the buying rate for the US dollar rising 10 cents to $121.42. A total of US$83,624,941 was sold versus US$61,386,330 on Friday as the selling rate rose 3 cents to $121.84.
The Canadian dollar buying rate fell 62 cents to end at $84.08 with dealers buying C$1,618,650 and selling C$851,202, at an average rate that climbed $1.26 to $86.78. The rate for buying the British Pound rose 37 cents to $172.71 for the purchase of £1,641,392, while £322,934 was sold, with the rate being down $2.21 to $171.97. At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, ended with a fall of $1.04 to close at J$136.96, from Friday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$134.37 for a decline of 78 cents from Friday’s rate. 
The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded, amounts to US$169,006 being bought, while US$790,203 was sold.
Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest rates the currencies traded at are, a fall of $1.97 in the lowest selling rate for the US dollar that ended at $99.36, the highest buying rate of the Canadian dollar rising $1.10 to $89 and lowest selling rate falling by $1 to $81.50 whilst the highest buying rate for the British Pound fell $2 to $176.
JSE jumped sharply on Monday
Carreras traded at a new 52 weeks’ high of $65 on Monday
Investors pushed stock prices sharply higher on the opening day of the week on the Jamaica Stock Exchange with 48 securities changing hands in all market segments. Trading resulted in the prices of 26 securities gaining while 10 declined. Nine stocks closed at 52 weeks’ high and 1 at an intraday high, as 23,823,419 units valued at $153,664,407 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 19,268,579 units, valued at $109,445,668.
The JSE Market Index jumped 3,162.74 points to 162,457.79 the all Jamaica Composite Index climbed 3,397.05 points to end at 180,512.04 and the JSE combined index shot up by 3,534.54 points to close at 174,083.53.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 10 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 3 with lower offers.
At the end of the market activities, Berger Paints fell 2 cents to end at $4.98, with 38,961 units traded, Cable and Wireless ended with 1,050,566 units changing hands at $1.69, Caribbean Cement fell 50 cents to close at $27.50 with 23,415 shares changing hands. Carreras traded as high as $65 in the morning session, following very good December quarter results but closed with a gain of 60 cents, to end at a 52 weeks’ high of $64.10 while trading 84,243 units, Ciboney ended with 593,564 share trading at 21 cents, Jamaica Producers had 30,970 shares trading at $30. Jamaica Stock Exchange ended with 55,290 shares trading to end at $20 but traded at an intraday high of $23, JMMB Group slipped by 70 cents in trading 1,136,590 units to end at $13, JMMB reported lower profit in the December Quarter of 32 cents per share versus 46 cents in 2014 and $1.04 for the nine months compared to $1.08. Margaritaville Turks had 120,900 shares trading at 15 US cents, Mayberry Investments fell 10 cents to close at $4.90 with 464,350 units traded. National Commercial Bank traded 95,580 shares to close at $42 after rising by 50 cents, 
138 Student Living traded 299,100 units with a gain of 20 cents to end at a 52 week’s high of $5.50, after trading as high as $5.90. Sagicor Group fell 5 cents and closed at $23 with 38,760 units changing hands, Sagicor Real Estate Fund closed at $12 while trading 13,100 shares, Scotia Group had 73,100 shares changing hands with a rise of $2.50 to close at $34, Scotia Investments had 1,500 units changing hands at $29.80 after gaining 80 cents. Seprod dropped $2 to close at $20 with 20,137 shares trading, Supreme Ventures climbed 70 cents to close at $6.45, with 211,534 units changing hands, Proven Investments ordinary share traded at 22 US cents with 119,531 units and Proven Investments preference share traded 72,476 units to close at $5.
Juniors’ big day with 17 gains – Monday
Knutsford Express traded at a new all-time high of $18.50 on Monday.
The junior market enjoyed a strong rebound in trading on Monday with 22 securities trading, 17 of which advanced, 3 declined. The market ended with index having 45.92 points to end at 2,313.78 as 7 stocks closed at a new 52 weeks’ as an unusually large volume of 19,268,579 units changed hands, valued at $109,445,668.
At the close, 2 securities ended with no bid to buy and 8 securities had no stocks being offered for sale but there are strong signs of the possibility of a big move forward, as 3 stocks closed with bids that were higher than their last selling prices and none ended with a lower offer.
Access Financial has not traded for a while and closed with a bid at $18.60 to buy just 2,000 units, 12,600 units at $18.59 and 2,650 units at $18. Bids remain at $17.60 to buy 16,500 units, at $17.55 to buy 5,800 units and 33,700 units with a bid of $17.50, all above the last trade at $16.80. There are three offers posted at the close, at $23.49 to sell 15,150 units, 3,000 units at $23.50 and one at $27 for 5,000 units.
In trading, AMG Packaging lost 1 cent while 860,957 units changed hands, to end at $19.99, CAC 2000 had 15,500 shares changing hands to close 35 cents higher at an all-time high of $7.35 with, C2W Music traded 45,223 shares but lost 2 cents to end at 45 cents. Cargo Handlers gained $1.30 to close at an all-time high of $40.30, as 4,000 units changed hands, Caribbean Cream rose 50 cents while trading 43,962 shares to close at $4.65, Caribbean Flavours ended with 750,363 units changing hands at $8.50, Caribbean Producers gained 40 cents with 8,823 units changing hands to close at $5.90. Consolidated Bakeries traded 4,600 units to close with a rise of 4 cents at $1.79, Derrimon Trading ended with 3,732,015 shares changing hands and closed at a new 52 weeks’ high of at $4.65 for a gain of 10 cents, Dolphin Cove rose 28 cents and ended with 35,670 shares trading at $16, General Accident Insurance traded 4,801,700 units at $2.15 to gain 5 cents, Honey Bun rose 92 cents as 15,705 units changed hands to end at a 52 weeks’ high of $13. Jamaican Teas rose 20 cents while trading 116,703 shares to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $8, KLE Group ended at $2.75 with 12,220 units trading,
Knutsford Express with 1,139,354 shares changing hands, closed with a gain of 50 cents at a 52 weeks’ closing high of $17.50, the stock traded as high as $18.50 during the day. Lasco Distributors closed with 335,916 units trading, but rose 50 cents to end at $8, Lasco Financial gained 70 cents to $3.70 with 2,528,860 shares changing hands, Lasco Manufacturing ended trading with 4,744,503 shares and lost 94 cents to close at $4, Medical Disposables gained 2 cents and ended trading with 48,000 units at $3.52. Paramount Trading rose by 10 cents to end with 1,817 shares changing hands at $11.30, Sweet River ended with 1,388 units changing hands at $4 after rising 10 cents for a 52 weeks’ high and tTech closed with a gain of 30 cents at $4.90 with 21,300 shares trading.
JSE pockets $110m from D&G trade
D&G adds $110m to JSE coffers
The JSE had their best year ever, in terms of earnings last year, as they picked up close to $120 million in fees, when Scotiabank switched their direct share ownership from Canada, to a company set up in the Caribbean, to hold all the shares of the Caribbean based entities.
Trading levels increased in each of the last three quarters last year, ending with the December quarter reaching $11.35 billion or 31 percent higher than the levels in the September quarter. For the year to date, regular trading levels are at $2.689 billion, up 79.6 percent from $1.497 billion for the similar period in 2015. The stock exchange has also increased some of its fees to investors and the brokers for 2016. In addition to the increased trading activity, the exchange in August last year started handling repo transactions, which is expected to enhance income for the full 2016 year as opposed to a few months last year.
The JSE stock has been trading in relatively high volumes, around the $20 range and closing on Thursday at $20 with just over 57,000 units.
Stocks hit record high on Thursday
NCB ended at a new closing 52 weeks’ high of $45 on Thursday
as the JSE Market Index climbed 833.94 points to 165,011.89 the all Jamaica Composite Index closed with a rise of 931.97 points to end at 183,366.39 and the JSE combined index surged 1,215.98 points to close at 176,138.88.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 12 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 1 with a lower offer. At the end of the market activities, Barita Investments ended with a gain of 8 cents as 141,883 units traded to close at $4.56, Berger Paints rose 8 cents to end at $4.28, with 94,400 units traded. Cable and Wireless with 1,265,407 units trading, closed with a fall of 3 cents at $1.52.
Caribbean Cement rose 30 cents to close at $28.90, with 46,195 shares changing hands, Carreras exchanged 375,002 shares at $62.50 with a loss of 50 cents, Gleaner Company traded 81,416 shares but fell 5 cents to $2.65, Grace Kennedy closed at $81.50 with 9,300 units changing hands as the price fell by $1. Jamaica Broilers climbed 20 cents to $15.20 with 145,679 shares changing hands, Jamaica Producers ended at $30 with 122,760 units trading, Jamaica Stock Exchange closed with a gain of 25 cents at $20 with 50,007 units trading, JMMB Group traded 577,792 units but rose 25 cents to end at $11.20. Kingston Wharves traded 12,200 shares at $11, Margaritaville Turks had 21,000 units changing hands to close at a 52 weeks’ high of 12.06 US cents with the rice rising by 0.06 cent. Mayberry Investments had 66,744 shares changing hands with a loss of 10 cents at $4.50, National Commercial Bank traded 16,282 shares and jumped $2 to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $45. Pan Jamaican Investment traded 3,187 units at $97.50, Pulse Investments traded 20,000 shares with a gain of 40 cents to end at a 52 weeks’ high of $3.90.
Radio Jamaica traded 12,500 shares with a decline of 5 cents to close at $4.45, Sagicor Group fell by 5 cents to close at $23 with 36,417 units changing hands, Sagicor Real Estate X Fund gained 10 cents to close at 52 weeks’ high of $11.70 with 13,447 shares trading. Scotia Group had 501,812 shares changing hands to close with a rise of 1 cent at $33.90. Scotia Investments rose 49 cents with 36,300 units changing hands to end at $27.50. Seprod gained $1.50 in ending at $20.50 while trading just 1,666 units, Supreme Ventures lost 10 cents and closed at $6.25 with 146,780 units changing hands, Proven Investments ordinary share traded 9,875 units to close at 22 US cents and JMMB 7.5% preference share traded 23,470 units at $2.10.
D&G saying good-bye on Wednesday
Desnoes & Geddes was saying goodbye to the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Wednesday, with a block trade representing the purchase of the minority shares amounting to 630,339,249 units carrying a value of $19,439,662,439 (US$163 million) at $30.84 each. At the close there were still over 10,714 shares on offer at $30 or more.
The market closed with 43 securities changing hands in all market segments, 18 of which gained and 8 declined. Five stocks closed at 52 weeks’ highs and Sagicor Real Estate Fund trading at an intraday high of $11.65 as 6,392,546 units valued at only $71,121,018 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 1,700,082 units changed hands, valued at $8,831,236.
The JSE Market Index climbed 952.94 points to 164,177.95 the all Jamaica Composite Index closed with a rise of 1,064.96 points to end at 182,434.42 and the JSE combined index gained 984.41 points to close at 174,922.90.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 13 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 1 with a lower offer.
At the end of the market activities, Barita Investments ended with 64,500 units trading to close at $4.48, in continued response to 2015 full year results, showing 55 cents per share earnings. Investors continued to respond positively to increased nine months results for Berger Paints, by bidding the stock up by 20 cents to end at $4.20, with 117,500 units traded. 
Cable and Wireless with 146,673 units trading closed with a fall of 1 cent at $1.55. Caribbean Cement lost 39 cents to close at $28.60, with 3,500 shares changing hands, Carreras exchanged 35,941 shares at $63 and gained $1.45 in the process, Ciboney traded 100,000 and gained to end at 24 cents, Gleaner Company traded 23,817 shares and rose 6 cents to $2.70, Grace Kennedy closed at $82.50 with 6,094 units changing hands. Jamaica Broilers climbed $1 to $15 with 1,951,667 shares changing hands, Jamaica Producers ended at $30 with 21,500 units trading, Jamaica Stock Exchange closed with a loss of 25 cents at $19.75 with 42,577 units trading, JMMB Group traded 1,098,727 units but rose 4 cents to end at $10.95. Mayberry Investments had 50,655 shares changing hands at $4.60, National Commercial Bank traded 44,444 shares and gained 15 cents to close at $43, 
Pan Jamaican Investment traded 6,30 units to gain $3.50 and close at $97.50, Pulse Investments traded 50,000 shares with a rise of 25 cents to close at $3.50. Sagicor Group closed at $23.05 with 28,350 units changing hands, Scotia Group had 226,400 shares changing hands to close with a rise of 1 cent at $35 but the stock was offered at $34.50 at the close, Seprod added 91,557 units and gained 49 cents in ending at $19 but traded at a 52 weeks’ intraday high of $21.05, Supreme Ventures closed at $6.35 with 305,480 units changing hands. Proven Investments ordinary share traded 20,380 units to close at 22 US cents, down from Monday’s 22.89 US cents, JMMB 7.5% preference share traded 25,000 units at $2.10 and Proven preference share traded 19,400 units at $5.
Scotia gives market major push – Tuesday
Berger Paints traded at a 52 weeks’ high on Tuesday
The Jamaica Stock Exchange closed with 43 securities changing hands in all market segments, 18 of which gained and 16 declined. Five stocks closed at 52 weeks’ highs and Sagicor Real Estate Fund traded at an intraday high of $11.65 as 6,392,546 units valued at only $47,425,214 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 2,288,351 units changed hands, valued at $8,386,950.
The JSE Market Index climbed 1,693.42 points to 163,225.01 the all Jamaica Composite Index closed with a rise of 1,892.50 points to end at 181,369.46and the JSE combined index gained 1,543.79 points to close at 173,938.49.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 8 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 1 with a lower offer.
At the end of the market activities, Barita Investments ended with 135,900 units trading to close at $4.48 with a gain of 20 cents, in response to 2015 full year results, showing 55 cents per share earnings.
Investors also responded favourably to increased nine months results for Berger Paints, by bidding the stock up by 37 cents to end at $4, with 300,001 units traded. Caribbean Cement climbed 39 cents to close at $28.99, with 9,884 shares changing hands, Carreras exchanged 33,751 shares at $61.55 but lost 45 cents. Ciboney traded 1,035,533 and gained 1 cent to end at 24 cents, Gleaner Company traded at 85,044 shares and rose 4 cents to $2.64, Grace Kennedy fell 50 cents and closed at $82.50, with 5,280 units changing hands but the stock traded in Trinidad at $4.20 (J$79.50) on Tuesday. Jamaica Broilers fell 45 cents to $14 with 40,770 shares changing hands, Jamaica Producers gained 85 cents to end at $30 with only 5,250 units trading, Jamaica Stock Exchange closed $20 with 73,700 units trading, JMMB Group traded 9,500 units but fell 9 cents to end at $10.91. Mayberry Investments had 4,278 shares changing hands but rose 10 cents to $4.60, National Commercial Bank traded 20,628 shares but fell 14 cents to close at $42.85, Pulse Investments traded 27,417 shares with a rise of 3 cents to close at $3.25. Sagicor Group closed at $23 with 57,009 units changing hands, 
Scotia Group had 607,506 shares changing hands to close with a rise of $3.43 at $34.99 but the stock was offered at $32.50 at the close, Scotia Investments had 5,750 shares trading to close with a loss of $2.89 at $27.01. Seprod added 10,303 units and lost $1.49 in ending at $18.51, Sterling Investments had 92,266 units changing hands to close at $13, Supreme Ventures closed at $6.35 after gaining 25 cents with 98,920 units changing hands. Proven Investments ordinary share traded 151,161 units to close at 22 US cents, down from Monday’s 22.89 US cents, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.5% preference share traded 469,000 units at $2.10 after dropping back by 15 cents and Proven Investments preference share traded 48,900 units at $5.