Pollsters terribly wrong on turnout

PNP The conventional wisdom, according to political pundits, is that a high turnout for elections favours the challengers and a low one, the government, but they don’t really say what is a low turnout? The latest polls show Anderson projecting 58 percent turnout and Johnson 62 percent.
The big question is that high or low? The answer, it is very high but we are unlikely to see anything that high, but even at 50 percent, it will be the highest number of voters ever with 912,205 or 42,767 more than in 2011, that would mean only 24 percent of the increased numbers on the voters list since 2011 would be voting.
The 2011 election saw the PNP picking up 464,280 votes to the JLP’s 405,158, for the PNP is was 59,000 more than in 2007 while the JLP got 5,000 less than in 2007.
JLP man -2-16Jamaican pollsters have consistently failed to accurately predict the out turn in Jamaican general elections going back for many elections. No one has done a study as to the reasons. In August 2007 Anderson showed an improbable 82% of the voters saying they would vote. Bill Johnson had it at 80 percent. It turned out that 61 percent voted, that is a huge difference. In 2002 Anderson had it at 78 percent, the actual was 59 percent and in 1997 the forecast was 79 percent versus actual of 65 percent. In 2011 the forecast was 78 percent by Anderson and Johnson 74 percent massively off from the actual.
Jamaican pollsters are not the only ones in the Caribbean to get the turnout wrong but those in Trinidad don’t seem as badly off as in Jamaica.
Trinidadians went to the polls in general elections late 2015 and two set of pollster got the outcome wrong. It appears that the main reason is an over estimation of voter turnout. IC Insider projected that the PNM would have won based on the results of one poll finding and plotting the data against the results of the previous election.
UNC crwdThat poll result released on the Sunday ahead of the polls showed a voter turnout of 74 percent, a level that Trinidad and Tobago has not seen since 1961. In the 2010 elections, the turnout was 69.45 percent, 66.03 percent in 2007 and 69.64 percent in 2002, next closet was 1991 with 65.76 percent. IC Insider stated that based on the pattern of recent years it would be surprising if the turnout exceeded 70 percent and that could make a huge difference to the final election results. In the end the turnout fell well below 70 percent, at 66.84.
Turnout at the last elections in Jamaica, was just over 53 percent, based on history that was low compared with previous elections but was it really that low? A look at the number of persons voting tells a different story. Political pundits say that the 2011 election had a low turnout, and if so favoured the government party but they lost. The fact is that the adage the pundits constantly quote is not based on all the facts. They focus on the level of turnout rather than what the overall numbers are saying. As it the 2011 elections had the highest turnout in the history of the country with 869,438 voters going to the polls, 52,878 more than in 2007 while 2007 had 47,802 more voters than 2002. If the election this week has the same level of turnout as in 2011 it would result in a massive 962,486 voters going to the polls or a massive 93,048 more voters.
If Johnson is right, his poll estimate of 62% would result in 1,131,134 voters or 261,696 more voters exercising their rights to determine the government for the next 5 years, a figure that is more than the increase of the voters list. In the case of Anderson it would result in 1,058,158 votes or 188,720 more votes than in 2011 and would in fact be a huge turnout of voters even as the figures on the surface suggest a relatively low turnout. Even the Johnson polls that showed 55 percent of voters indicating that they will definitely vote would result in a massive voter turnout of nearly 1 million votes.

PNM wins T&T elections with 23 seats

PNM logoPNM is now predicted to take 23 of the 41 seats in the Trinidad and Tobago in today’s general elections. They are leading in 23 seats at 12 pm in the twin island state with more than 50 percent of the votes counted.
Most pollsters predicted the PNM would take the elections within the range of victory now that seems likely. A few pollster called it wrong for the winner. The election outcome is essentially based on racial origin of the population with the PNM winning mostly in areas with black population and the UNC winning in the centre of the country with mostly Indian population. The outgoing government in 2010 won 29 out of the 41 seats that make up the parliament.

Polls suggest big win for T&T PNM

PNM logoUNC logoThe voters in the twin island state of Trinidad and Tobago go to the polls on Monday, September 7 in general election to elect a new government. The incumbent, the People’s Party Coalition – United National Congress (PP/UNC) has been in government since May 2010 is said to be trailing in recent public opinion polls conducted by H.H.B. & Associates Ltd for Guardian Media Ltd.
According to the poll results, the People’s National Movement (PNM) is leading the race in voter support with just eight days to go before the election, with 37 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the PNM, while 30 per cent said they will vote PP/UNC. The undecided respondents accounted for 31 per cent, while two per cent said they supported the Independent Liberal Party.
The poll was conducted between August 22 and 28 using a random sample of 1,000 person.
If the actual results of the elections are close to what the polls indicate it would amount to a massive victory for the PNM with approximately 54 percent of the to the (PP/UNC) 43 percent of the popular votes.

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