Jamaica’s Unemployment Rate fell by 0.7 percentage point in towards the end of September but remains at a stubborn 13.5 percent of persons said to be in the workforce, a decrease from to 14.2 percent at the same time in 2014.
Over the period, the unemployment rate for males declined from 9.9 percent to 9.3 percent and for females from 19.4 percent to 18.5 percent.
The number of persons Unemployed in September 2015 was 178,600, a decrease of 7,600 compared with 186,200 in September 2014. “The largest increase in the number of employed persons occurred in the industry group ‘Hotels and Restaurants Services’ and ‘Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities’ with a total of 23,700 persons,” the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) said.
A total of 22,600 more workers were employed compared with September 2014 bringing the total to 1,146,600 employed persons in September 2015.
Government capital spend jumps $3.7b
Peter Phillips – Minister of Finance
Tax revenues continue to be on a positive path, with $6.6 billion over budget but grants are below by $3.1 billion resulting in revenues surplus of $2.5 billion. Government over spent on wages in the tune of $2.3 billion taking the total spend to $126.6 billion but interest cost continues to be lower than forecast by almost $5 billion at $91 billion. Spending on other expenses was below forecast by $3 billion. The overall deficit was in line with forecast, at $14.7 billion and the primary surplus was nearly a billion more than planned at $66 billion.
Election 2016 who will win PNP or JLP?
Polling in Jamaica has gone from an exercise that a vast number of Jamaicans found to be incredible, questioning how a small sample of just 1,000 persons could be used to predict pretty accurately, the views of an entire population? Based on the accuracy over the years in forecasting election results, the vast majority, seem to have put their faith in them.
But when it comes to politics emotions run deep and there are mood swings as well. Take the polls since late 2014, the Don Anderson polls showed the following results:
The most recent poll show the PNP at 27.5% and the JLP at 23.2%, effectively the polls show that both parties lost active support since September last year. The PNP lost 2 percentage points and the JLP a much larger 6.4 percentage points, taking the latter below the core position held from 2014 to June of 25%. If the latest polls number were to hold come election day, the PNP would end up with about 54% to 46% for the JLP of the votes, on a head to head race which would put the PNP slightly ahead of the 2011 when they took 53.40% of the votes to the JLP 46.60%.
What is rather interesting is that RJR carried on their website a story of a recent canvass done buy the PNP in which Paul Burke says they are sure to win 32 seats, with 10 of the rest they have in doubt.
“RJR News has obtained a copy of the report which outlines that the Party is sure of winning 32 of the 63 Parliamentary seats. Of the remaining 10 seats from the 42 which were won by the PNP in 2011, two are deemed at risk of being lost and eight have been declared hard to win”. This information does not reflect an outcome as indicated by Anderson polls.
Analysis of the stock market show that it is a good indicator a year out from elections, for the party likely to win, in this case the market is suggesting the PNP. The recent polls are not convincingly showing that.
History is a useful guide. There is a tendency for polls to pick up incumbency support and less of opposition support. Carl Stone in an article written in 1981 stated that his polls prior to the 1980 election showed the JLP with 56% of the votes which was 3% points lower than the outcome of 59% of the votes cast that the JLP got compared to 41 % PNP. More importantly, a poll done in the summer months showed the polls narrowing from around 54% for the JLP to about 51% with the PNP seeming to have momentum with 49%. The situation between the two polls was fairly similar to late 2015 onwards where activity by one party seemed to have been more low-keyed, than the other.
A poll released by Anderson in early Oct 2002 showed the PNP with support amongst 54.4% of voters and the JLP with 45.3% but the outcome was PNP 51.5% and the JLP 46.9% a 5% point bias towards the governing party. In the last polls before the election in 2002 had the PNP at 52.3% to the JLP’s 46.9% still a slight bias towards the PNP but only marginally so. Between June 2007 and late July the poll had an incumbency bias of 4.8 percent to a low of 2.68 percent, the polls prior to the actual election ended with only a 0.30 percent bias in favour of the labour party. In the 2011 elections all Anderson polls from May up to the elections had a bias of 1.7% or less in favour of the JLP who were then in government.
What is also of interest, is that the poll numbers showed that the PNP slipped to 17% in the Anderson polls in December 2014 and has made a major recovery since. The JLP had a low of 15.9 % back in May 2011 and recovered much of the lost ground in polls taken after.
The 2007 polls make for interesting reading as it is one of the times when a party trailing prior to the election actually end up winning. In February 2007 the PNP trailed the labour party by 1 percentage point at 26% to 27%, in April the PNP pulled ahead with 25% to 23% in May it was 25% each way, by June it showed the PNP with a 4 percentage points lead at 29% to 25%. A second poll in June, showed the PNP moving ahead with 30.70% and the JLP barely keeping up at 25.60%. July saw a change, with the gap closing, but with the PNP ahead with 32.8% and the JLP at 29.3 percent at the end of July the PNP garnered 38.8 percent of voters support and the JLP was at 35.3% and the last one in August placed the PNP at 40.3% and JLP with 41.3%.
Will the 2016 polls closer to the election date narrow? History seems to support that view but time will tell and by how much. What is also of interest will be the turnout of voters. In the 2011 elections, turnout was 52.76 percent, if that were to happen this time it would result in a total of 93,047 votes over the level in 2011, raising the total to 962,485. If the Anderson’s latest polls numbers are close to accurate, there would only be about 2 percentage more points that either party could pick up based on the above, but the latest voters list is 10.7 percent higher than the 2011 one with an additional 176,374 voters or 20 percent of persons who voted in 2011.
Juniors market up 21% to Friday
Junior market stocks had big gains in January.
The volume of 1,176,492 units changed hands, valued at $6,265,417. At the close, 1 security ended with no bid to buy and 9 securities had no stocks being offered for sale. Trading could end with a strong gain at the close on Friday with a total of 9 stocks closing with bids higher than their last traded prices while none closed with a lower offer.
In trading, Access Financial Services closed at $16.80 with 9,500 units changing hands, AMG Packaging jumped $1 to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $15 with 5,514 units changing hands, Blue Power closed with only 385 units changing hands at $11, C2W Music closed with 9,935 units changing hands to close at 49 cents. Caribbean Cream ended with a loss of 15 cents as 25,562 shares changed hands to close at $4.65, Caribbean Flavours traded 43,830 units to end with a loss of 5 cents at $8.95, Caribbean Producers traded 11,000 units to gain 50 cents and closed at $5.50, Consolidated Bakeries traded 21,500 shares at $1.30. Dolphin Cove traded 5,560 units but fell 31 cents to close at $15.69,
General Accident rose 8 cents while trading 47,541 shares to close at $2.15, Honey Bun ended at a 52 weeks’ high of $9 with 28,500 units trading with a gain of 30 cents. Jamaican Teas fell 10 cents with 61,245 shares trading to close at a $4.90, KLE closed with 21,800 units changing hands at $2.22, after losing 28 cents, Knutsford express ended with 700 shares changing hands at $15.20, Lasco Distributors closed with 214,200 units trading and ended at $7.20, Lasco Financial closed at $4 with 166,857 shares changing hands. Lasco Manufacturing ended trading 484,867 shares to close at $5 and tTech closed with a gain of 5 cents at $4.75 with 17,996 shares trading.
JSE up 8% for 2016 to Friday
Jamaican stock market gained 8% in January
Main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed with gains in the indices on Friday with light trading volumes. Market activities closed with 43 securities changing hands in all market segments, 15 of which gained in the combined markets and 19 declined. At the end of the January trading accounted for $2.45 billion with the combined market index rising 8 percent, since the start of the year.
Two stocks closed at 52 weeks’ highs one at a 52 weeks’ low and one traded at intraday highs as 3,047,233 units valued at only $19,756,390 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 1,176,492 units changed hands, valued at $6,265,417.
The JSE Market Index fell sharply by 2,439.44 points to 159,591.63 the all Jamaica Composite Index closed with a big decline of 2,726.20 points to end at 177,308.95 and the JSE combined index dropped 3,176.12 points to close at 169,880.83.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 19 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 1 with a lower offer.
At the end of the market activities, Berger Paints lost 5 cents to end at $3.70 as 106,008 units traded, Cable and Wireless ended with 1,116,925 units changing hands to close 1 cent lower at $1.59, Caribbean Cement climbed $1.65 to close at $26.65, with 9,011 shares changing hands. Grace Kennedy fell 49 cents and closed at $83, with 1,378 units changing hands. Jamaica Broilers gained 39 cents to $14.49 with 37,753 shares changing hands, Jamaica Producers gained 3 cents to $29.15 with 100,420 units trading, JMMB Group traded 47,742 units but fell by 10 cents to end at $10.90, Kingston Wharves traded 9,700 units to close with the loss of 5 cents at $11.09. Mayberry Investments had 20,000 shares changing hands and fell 16 cents to $4.35, National Commercial Bank traded only 1,200 shares but rose $1.10 to close at $41.10 after the banking group released interim results to December, last year with a 12 percent increase in aftertax profit to $2.4 billion, up from $2.1 billion. Pan 
Jamaican Investment gained $1.50 with just 100 units changing hands to close at $98, Pulse Investments traded 29,583 shares with a rise of 25 cents to close at $3.25. Sagicor Group lost 55 cents to close at $22.90 with 40,900 units changing hands, Scotia Group had 9,70 shares changing hands to close with a rise of 30 cents at $31, Scotia Investments had 150,000 shares trading to close with a loss of $2 at $28. Supreme Ventures closed at $6.20 and gained of 20 cents with 105,730 units changing hands, JMMB 7.5% preference share traded 75,000 units at $2.10 after slipping 15 cents and 138 Student Living preference share traded at a 52 weeks’ low of $4.90 while trading 1,000 shares with a loss of 10 cents.
Grace’s $160m trade on Monday
Grace Kennedy traded 1.9m shares valued at $160m on Monday.
Main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed with strong gains in the indices on Monday as Grace Kennedy traded 1.9 million units carrying a value of $160 million. The other big trade was in National Commercial Bank shares with over 2 million units changing hands with a value of $88.6 million.
Market activities slowed with only 33 securities changing hands in all market segments compared to recent levels around 40 or more per day for January. At the close of trading session, the combined index added 2,291 points with 13 securities in the combined markets gaining and 16 declining.
Three stocks closed at 52 weeks’ highs and two traded at intraday highs as 8,596,958 units valued at $285,106,122 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 1,200,794 units changed hands, valued at $ 5,249,310.
The JSE Market Index advanced by 2,618.88 points to 159,325.44 the all Jamaica Composite Index closed with a gain of 2,926.75 points to end at 177,011.46 and the JSE combined index rose 2,290.59 points to close at 170,337.74.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 12 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 with lower offers.
At the end of the market activities, Barita Investments closed with 200,500 shares as the price lost 13 cents to end at $3.90. The company confirmed on Monday that they are on target to release the audited accounts to September last year, this week. Berger Paints closed with a loss of 29 cents at $3.31 as 337,791 units traded, Cable and Wireless ended with 415,800 units changing hands to close with a gain of 5 cents at $1.56, Caribbean Cement rose $2 to close at $24, with 425,288 shares changing hands. Carreras fell 55 cents in trading 1,956 shares at $62.50, Ciboney gained 3 cents in trading 200,555 shares at 27 cents, Gleaner traded 3,000 units with a gain of 27 cents at $2.67, Grace Kennedy shed $2 and closed at $82, with 1,949,435 units changing hands. Jamaica Broilers rose by 1 cent and closed at 52 weeks’ high of $13.51 with 80,536 shares changing hands. Jamaica Stock Exchange lost 3 cents to close at $19.67 while trading 5,740 shares, JMMB Group traded 1,042,305 units to end with a loss of 28 cents at $10.72. 
Kingston Wharves traded 30,400 units to close with a rise of 15 cents at $11.15, Mayberry Investments traded 8,450 shares and gained 15 cents to close at $4.85, National Commercial Bank traded with a loss of $3 to close at $40, with 2,199,601 units changing hands. Sagicor Group fell by 20 cents to close at $23.05 with 61,650 units changing hands, Scotia Group had 59,199 shares changing hands to close with a gain of $1.59 at $32, Scotia Investments had 30,814 units changing hands at $30, for a rise of $2. Sterling Investments traded 100,000 units with a loss of 10 cents to end at $12.90, Supreme Ventures traded at an intraday 52 weeks’ high of $6.50 but ended at $5.50 with 72,434 units changing hands, Proven Investments ordinary share traded 16,950 units at 22 US cents and JMMB 7.5% Preference share traded 151,000 units at $2.10 after losing a cent.
Big jump in FX trades on Thursday
Trading picked up in the Jamaican foreign exchange market on Thursday over the low level on Wednesday but is still below the levels expected for this time of the year with dealers buying the equivalent of US$86,482,978 and selling US$81,286,470, compared with US$30,144,415 purchased and US$32,965,153 sold on Wednesday.
In US dollars trading, dealers bought US$81,408,190 compared to US$25,692,915 on Wednesday with the buying rate for the US dollar rising 65 cents to $120.78. A total of US$76,491,607 was sold versus US$27,660,961 on Wednesday as the selling rate climbed by 3 cents to $121.04.
The Canadian dollar buying rate jumped $1.95 to end at $84.15 with dealers buying C$3,747,853 and selling C$5,750,040, at an average rate that rose $1.86 to $85.44. The rate for buying the British Pound climbed $1.14 to $169.71 for the purchase of £1,686,196, while £456,382 was sold, with the rate gaining 3 cents to $169.97. At the end of trading, it took J$131.86 to purchase the Euro, for a rise of 15 cents from Wednesday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$128.94 for a climb of 12 cents from Wednesday’s rate. The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded, amounts to US$94,363 being bought, while US$95,194 was sold.
Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest rates the currencies traded at are, a jump of $18.72 in the lowest selling rate of the US dollar to $117.50. The Canadian dollar highest buying rate rose by $1.60 to $85.25. There was a rise of $3.74 in the highest selling rate of the British Pound, to $179.01 and an increase in the lowest selling rate of $1.20 to $164.50.
C&W trades 51.4m shares on Thursday
C&W traded 51.4 Million shares on Thursday
Cable & Wireless traded over 51 million shares on Thursday on the Jamaica Stock Exchange as Sagicor Investments crossed more than 48 million on behalf of clients. The market continues to enjoy wide securities participation with 40 changing hands on Thursday in all market segments. At the close, 13 securities in the combined markets gained and 18 declined with the market indices climbing sharply.
Five stocks closed at 52 weeks’ highs and two traded at intraday high as 54,222,475 units valued at $114,953,664 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 1,498,422 units changed hands, valued at $9,013,294.
The JSE Market Index eked out an increase of 1,207.54 points to 157,025.07, the all Jamaica Composite Index closed with an increase of 1,349.49 points to end at 174,440.67 and the JSE combined index rose 1,080.44 points to close at 168,293.36.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice
bid-offer indicator reached an elevated level indicating several rising prices ahead with reading of 15 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 5 with lower offers.
In trading, Barita Investments traded 20,000 shares and gained 72 cents to close at $6, for a 52 weeks’ high, at the close that stock had 10,000 offered to sell at $5, Berger Paints closed at $3.60 as 11,893 units traded, Cable and Wireless ended with 51,362,980 units changing hands to close with the loss of 1 cent at $1.49. Caribbean Cement fell 50 cents to close at $24.50, with 53,086 shares changing hands, Carreras lost $1 in trading 50,666 shares at $60, Desnoes & Geddes traded 24,527 units at a loss of 2 cents at $28.51, Grace Kennedy lost $1.52 and closed at $81.50, with 83,802 units changing hands. Jamaica Broilers closed at $13.50 with 107,799 shares changing hands to record a gain of 99 cents. Jamaica Producers lost $2.13 with 37,716 shares trading, to close at $31, Jamaica Stock Exchange lost 14 cents to close at $19.66 while trading 4,899 shares, JMMB Group traded 25,606 units to end with a loss of 79 cents at $11.01, 
Kingston Wharves lost 5 cents, in trading 23,750 units to close at $11. Margaritaville Turks traded 41,800 shares at 11 US cents. National Commercial Bank ended with a gain of 30 cents at $41.20, with 14,298 units changing hands, Pan Jamaican Investments closed at $96 with 10,779 shares trading. Pulse Investments traded 30,100 shares but fell 20 cents to $2.50, Sagicor Group rose by 40 cents to close at $22 with 32,585 units changing hands, Scotia Group lost 7 cents with 228,567 shares changing hands to close at $30.41. Sterling Investments closed with 157,800 shares changing hands at $13 and Supreme Ventures rose 35 cents to end at a 52 weeks’ high of $5.50 with 400,000 units changing hands.
JSE suffers big drop on thursday
Scotia Group caused major swing in the JSE index on Wednesday & Thursday.
The recorded closing price for Scotia Group in yesterdays’ trading was $34.23 according to the Jamaica Stock exchange rules, but the stock last traded at $30.10. The stock exchange indices are based on the weighted average price making Scotia Group the main mover to push up the market index sharply on Wednesday based on the JSE recognized closing price.
In today’s trading, the stock last traded at $34.99 but the official closing price is $31.87, the end, the market index dropped sharply, resulting in major swings in the market, despite the JSE’s attempt to use the weighted averages to set the final closing price for a day, in an effort to cut closing price manipulation and its impact on the indices.
There were relatively large trades in excess of 2 million units, in National Commercial Bank, Sagicor Group and Supreme Ventures. The high number of stocks participating in trading on the exchange continued on Thursday with 44 active securities in all market segments. At the close 24 securities in the combined markets gained and 9 declined. Four stocks closed at 52 weeks’ highs and 3 at intraday highs as 20,376,982 units valued at $295,286,830 changed hands in all markets, with the junior market accounting for 2,815,123 units changed hands, valued at $15,357,167.
The JSE Market Index dropped 3,221.67 points to 157,625.77, the all Jamaica Composite Index made a sharp downturn with 3,600.40 points to end at 175,111.99 and the JSE combined index dived by 3,710.78 points to close at 169,229.05.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reached an elevated level indicating several rising prices ahead with reading of 19 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and only 3 with lower offers.
In trading, Barita Investments traded 10,000 shares and gained 10 cents to close at $3.90, Cable and Wireless ended with 113,157 units changing hands to close with a gain of 4 cents t0 $1.44, Caribbean Cement had wild price swings during trading, with the stock trading at an intraday high of $27.75 and as low as $20.50. The price fell $3.10 to $22, with 87,713 shares trading. At the close there were 2,203,900 units offered for sale at $28. Carreras rose 5 cents to end at $60.05 with 34,895 units changing hands, Gleaner Company traded 145,708 shares to close at with a loss of 30 cents at $2.40, Grace Kennedy fell to $80.21, with a fall of $3.79, as 114,095 units changed hands. Jamaica Broilers jumped $1.51 to close at $13.01 with 317,655 shares changing hands, for a new 52 weeks’ high. Jamaica Producers had 5,000 shares trading as the price moved up by 60 cents to $32.20, Jamaica Stock Exchange closed at $19 while trading 900 shares, at the close the bid was at $19.50 for only 340 units, JMMB Group traded 94,158 units to end with a loss of 5 cents at $11.95. Kingston Wharves traded 80,823 units but lost 5 cents to close at $11.15, Mayberry Investments traded just 2,540 shares and lost 8 cents to end at $4.72,
National Commercial Bank ended with a gain of 1 cent at $41.50 with 2,096,961 units changing hands, Pan Jamaican Investments fell $1.85 to close at $94.15 with 5,247 shares trading. Radio Jamaica traded 21,940 shares but closed $5.60. Sagicor Group fell 5 cents to close at $23.45 with 5,208,162 units changing hands, Sagicor Real Estate Fund traded 83,740 shares to end at $11, Scotia Group gained $4.89 with 55,940 shares changing hands at $34.99, Scotia Investments dropped $3.10 to close at $26.80 after 49,315 units traded, Supreme Ventures gained 4 cents to end at $4.70 with a high volume of 8,564,688 units changing hands and Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.50% preference share traded 50,500 units at $2.
Juniors fell sharply on Thursday
Lasco companies gave back ground in Thursday’s trading
At the close, 1 security ended with no bid to buy and 7 securities had no stocks being offered for sale. A total of 7 stocks closed with bids higher than their last traded prices while 2 closed with lower offers.
In trading, Access Financial traded 711 units to end at $16.50 while C2W Music ended at 49 cents while 4,200 units changed hands. Cargo Handlers traded at a new 52 weeks’ high of $38.50 by gaining 90 cents with 541 shares trading, Caribbean Cream ended with a gain of 10 cents as 90,259 shares changed hands to end at $5.10. Caribbean Producers had 23,964 units changing hands, but slipped 3 cents to close at $5.47, Consolidated Bakeries had trading in 331,039 shares at $1.40, Derrimon Trading ended at $4.05 with a loss of 2 cents while 23,975 units traded. Dolphin Cove traded 20,092 shares after losing 5 cents to end at $15.55,
General Accident rose by 6 cents as it traded 135,534 shares to close at $2.06, Jamaican Teas had 26,320 shares trading to close with a loss of 60 cents at $5. KLE ended at $2 with 146,721 shares changing hands after rising by 10 cents to a new 52 weeks’ high, Lasco Distributors closed with 953,127 units trading and ended with a loss of 50 cents at $8, Lasco Financial lost 25 cents to close at $4.75 with 136,826 shares changing hands. Lasco Manufacturing traded 609,897 shares but fell 26 cents to close at $4.74, Medical Disposables gained 19 cents and ended with 6,322 shares changing hands at $3.30, tTech closed with a loss of 48 cents at $5.01 with 280,595 units changing hands and Eppley cumulative preference share 2019, ended with 25,000 units changing hands at $6.10.