Treasury bill rates fall
At the latest auction for the issue of Treasury bills held today, rates on the 28 days, the 91 days and 182 days bills declined from ay auction, continuing the decent starting March last year.
The latest rate on the 91 days instrument is now at 6.48 down from 6.57 percent at the May auction and the 182 days is now at 6.63 percent, a fall from 6.7 percent. The 28 days instrument ended with a rate of 6.23 percent down from 6.27 percent in May. The rates are far off from the BOJ CD rate of 5.25 percent.
A total of $1.2 billion was available for the public to bid on, split equally between the three issues. The 28 days offering attracted $475 million the 91 days attracted $602 million and the 182 days instrument attracted $828 million. With the interest rates on some of the Jamaican government’s bonds tied to Treasury bill rates, the latest development of lower rates will mean lower cost for the variable rate bonds.
With inflation looking as if it could end 2015 around 3.5 percent Bank of Jamaica may have to intervene by lowering the CD rate to speed up the fall in Treasury bill rates.
Jamaica’s Inflation flat May up 0.5%
Price increases in Jamaica since the start of this year is zero, measured by the All Jamaica Consumer Price Index but it increased by 0.5 percent for May over April this year, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica report shows.
Inflation since May last year is put at 4 percent and was helped by declines in the price of petroleum late in 2014, resulting in just 0.1 percent inflation in October and negative inflation from November to February.
The divisions contributing significantly to the upward movement in the index were Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages influenced by mainly by higher prices for vegetables and starchy foods increased with a 0.5 percent increase.
Increased fuel prices added to inflation in May[/caption]Other divisions recording increases were: Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco 0.7 percent Clothing and Footwear 0.2 percent, Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance 0.2 percent, Health 0.2 percent, Recreation and Culture 0.1 percent, Restaurants and Accommodation Services 0.1 percent, Miscellaneous Goods and Services 0.3 percent.
Tempering the categories with increases was a fall of 1.7 percent in the index for the group Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling.
Remittances dip in February
Remittances flows into Jamaica declined for February this year, with total remittances coming up short of the inflows into the system in 2014 by a marginal decline of just $500,000 from the corresponding month last year.
Gross remittance inflows for the month amounted to US$167.8 million while net remittances were US$146.7 million, a decline of US$5 million or 3.4 percent relative to the corresponding period of 2014. The decline is the first such since December 2013.
For the first two months of the year total remittance inflows were US$334 million, representing an increase of US$7.6 million or 2.3 percent while net remittances for 2015 were US$294 million, a growth of US$4.4 million or 1.5 percent compared to the corresponding period of 2014.
Interest rates slip slightly
The lastest issue of Treasury bills saw a slight slippage in the rates investors will be getting from the government over the next three to six months.
The 6 months issue of Treasury bills maturing in November this year attracted $656.586 million and yielding an average of 6.714 percent, compared with 6.787 percent in April. The the 3 months’ bills are yeilding 6.568 percent versus 6.61 percent in April, the latter auction attracted bids of $655,977,500. Both issues offered bills of $400 million each.
Rates have been sliding on Treasury bills since March last year, there was a slight uptick in the rate out turn at the February auction. The pace of decline of the rates seems to have slowed, in this auction compared with earlier declines. Bank of Jamaica will probably have to lower CD rates to induce a faster decline with inflation for the year still subdued.
BOJ may ease monetary policy
Bank of Jamaica may ease monetary policy in the context of a slower rate of depreciation of the Jamaican dollar, the precipitous fall in oil prices and with inflation expectations fallen sharply.
The bank stated that notwithstanding the sharp fall in inflation, expectations by the business community were above the inflation outturn at end-March 2015, as well as the Bank’s projections for the near-term. The bank went on to state that with the downward adjustment in inflation expectation, in conjunction with favourable developments in the macro financial environment, will allow the Bank to pursue an even more accommodative stance than they have done so far. Notably, developments in the international economy including a faster than projected reversal of oil prices and the timing of tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies will increasingly influence the direction of domestic monetary policy.
“For the March quarter, the Bank’s monetary policy stance remained generally accommodative while being consistent with achieving the monetary targets under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) supported programme”, the governor reported. In particular, the Bank purchased net amounts of foreign exchange from the market and introduced a 3-month lending facility (Occasional Term Repo Operation), which enhanced liquidity assurance. In the context of the outturns for these
Macro-economic variables and the outlook for inflation over the near-term, the Bank lowered its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.50 per cent on 17 April 2015. This policy action was also consistent with declines in inflation expectations and the country’s risk premium.
Growth of possible 1% in Q1
Real growth in the Jamaican economy (GDP) is estimated to have increased in the March 2015 quarter between 0.0 to 1.0 percent, following two consecutive quarters of contraction, Bank of Jamaica’s governor, Brian Wynter disclosed at the bank’s quarterly press briefing today.
The estimated outturn for the quarter mainly reflected increases in tourism activity, domestic agriculture and Transport, Storage & Communication.
For Fiscal year 2015/16, real GDP is forecasted to expand between 1.0 to 2.0 percent. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Hotels & Restaurants and Transport,
Jamaica’s 2015 inflation remains tame
The inflation rate, increased by a mere 0.2 percent in April 2015 while the year-to-date inflation rate for April 2015 is minus 0.5 percent, the point-to-point 4.4 percent.
Statin said the lower increase for April is due mainly to upward movements in the index for the divisions of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 0.5 percent, Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco 1.3 percent and Transport 1.1 percent. The fall in prices the group Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ which fell by 4.6 percent. This resulted mainly from lower fuel rates, as well as an appreciation of the Jamaican dollar.
The calendar The other divisions that recorded increases in the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ index were: ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.4 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.4 percent, ‘Health’ 0.2 percent, percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.3 percent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.2 percent, and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.3 percent.