Central government of Jamaica’s fiscal operations, rack up a tidy surplus, in contrast to a sizeable deficit budgeted to July this year, data on the government’s operations, recently released show.
This development is unusual at this time of the year when deficits are usually racked up until the last fiscal quarter, the period when surplus revenues are generated.
The surplus was helped by an $11.4 billion in capital inflows showing up as divestment proceeds/other and is boosted by a near $6 billion increase in recurring revenues over forecast and a $7 billion underspending thus ensuring a healthy surplus for the 4 months period amounting to $5.4 billion, against a budgeted deficit of $7 billion. The critical primary surplus a major benchmark of the IMF agreement rest, ended at $38.6 billion versus $29 billion planned.
Also contributing to the positive outcome was a cut in non-payroll expenditure of $6 billion, reduced interest cost of $3.2 billion and positive tax revenues of $5.4 billion. Corporate taxes rose 34 percent above forecast adding $3.3 billion more than the $10 billion planned but corporations are not paying over tax withheld on dividend with only $386 million being paid versus projection of $506 million. Special Consumption Taxes on import fell $2.8 billion while the tax on local production rose by $3.5 billion, from forecast and travel taxes providing $1 billion more than planned.
US$ Demand falls sharply in Jamaica – Friday
Trading in the Jamaican foreign exchange market on Friday, resulted in a big difference between purchases and sales, with purchasing of all currencies ending at US$42.05 million and outflows at US$26.69 million.
Purchases by dealers on Thursday amounted to the equivalent of US$83.06 million while dealers sold US$59.28 million.
At the end of trading, the US dollar was sold at J$129.52 from J$129.65 previously while dealers bought the US currency at an average of J$128.42 versus J$128.87 on Thursday.
In USA dollar trading, inflows ended at US$38.63 million versus US$76.39 million on Thursday with outflows of US$24.41 million compared to US$53.52 million.
The selling rate for the Canadian dollar rose to J$104.30 from J$103.77 at the close on Thursday while the British Pound was more costly, with J$167.22 buying the British currency versus J$165.72 and the euro, gained in value against the Jamaican dollar, with it taking J$153.82 to buy the European common currency, versus J$153.55 previously.
Jamaica’s forex inflows jump – Thursday
Trading in the Jamaican foreign exchange market on Thursday resulted in a big surge in the amounts purchased and sold by dealers and a fall in the value of the local currency against the US dollar.
Trading ended with inflows of US$83.06 million compared to US$45.12 million on Wednesday. Outflows amounted to only US$59.28 million compared to US$45.80 million of all currencies on the prior trading day. Inflows for August ended at US$955 million up from US$939 million in July while outflows were almost the same in both months at US$751 million versus US$750 million in July. Interestingly while inflows for June was in the order of August and July at US$939 million outflows were far higher at US$872 million.
At the end of trading the US dollar was sold rate of J$129.65 from J$129.33 previously, even as inflows rose sharply over Wednesday’s intake. Dealers bought the US currency at an average of J$128.87 versus J$128.16 on Wednesday.
In USA dollar trading, inflows ended at US$76.39 million versus US$39.70 million on Wednesday with outflows of US$53.52 million compared to US$37.91 million.
The selling rate for the Canadian dollar rose to J$103.77 from J$103.71 at the close on Wednesday while the British Pound was less costly, with J$165.72 buying the British currency versus J$167.53 and the euro, lost value against the Jamaican dollar, with it taking J$153.55 to buy the European common currency, versus J$157.24 previously.
Jamaican$ drops to J$129.33 to US$1
Trading in the Jamaican foreign exchange market on Wednesday resulted in the Jamaican dollar declining in value against the US dollar, following Tuesday’s decline with the selling rate ending at J$129.33 from J$128.77 previously, even as inflows rose over Tuesday’s intake.
Dealers bought the US currency at an average of J$128.16, versus J$127.36 on Tuesday. Trading ended with inflows of US$45.12 million compared to US$38.41 million on Tuesday with Bank of Jamaica is entitled to approximately 25 percent of the inflows or around $10 million of Wednesday’s intake. Outflows amounted to only US$45.80 million compared to US$35.70 million of all currencies on the prior trading day.
In USA dollar trading, inflows ended at US$39.70 million versus US$31.76 million on Tuesday with outflows of US$37.91 million compared to US$26.33 million.
The selling rate for the Canadian dollar fell to J$103.71 from J$104.44 at the close on Tuesday while the British Pound was more costly, with J$167.53 buying the British currency versus J$167.23 and the euro, rose in value against the Jamaican dollar, with it jumping to J$157.24 to buy the European common currency, versus J$156.41 previously.
US$65m slated for sale by BOJ
The Bank will be offering USD65 million over the next four weeks in its foreign exchange auction to eligible Authorised Dealers and Cambios.
The amount represents an increase over the quantity offered in August of US$35 million prior to the amount to be auctioned on Wednesday, 30 August.
September is usually a period when inflows tend to dip below normal levels and may be the reason why the amounts to be offered have been increased.
The weekly schedule outlined by the BOJ is: US$5 million on Wednesday, 30 August, the same amount as last week, US$10 million on Wednesday, September 6, US$20 million on September 13 and US$30 million on September 20.
The central bank is only returning to the market amounts it would have taken under the compulsory surrender of 25 percent from Authorised Dealers and Cambios during the month. It is unclear as to the reasons why Bank of Jamaica has not reduced their compulsory take from the market. In 200 the central bank hiked the amount when the price of oil was around US$100 a barrel as the amount to fund Petrojam was being provided by BOJ. Now that the price is around U$50 why is the weekly take not reduced?
In 2009, Bank of Jamaica established the Foreign Exchange Surrender Facility for public sector entities (PSE Facility). 
The aim of the facility is to centralize foreign currency demand of the public sector, especially Port Authority of Jamaica, National Water Commission and Petrojam. Under this facility Commercial Banks agreed to surrender fifteen percent (15%) of foreign currency purchases daily. The pre-existing requirement where Authorized Dealers and Cambios surrender within range of five percent (5%) to ten percent (10%) of their gross foreign currency purchases from commercial clients remains in effect. Therefore commercial banks are to surrender, in total between twenty percent (20%) to twenty-five percent (25%) of foreign currency purchases daily. At the start of 2015, the surrender requirements were increased thirty percent to thirty-five percent for Authorised dealers and twenty-five percent for cambios.
Jamaican$ falls again – Tuesday
Trading in the Jamaican foreign exchange market on Tuesday resulted in the Jamaican dollar declining in value against the US dollar, following Monday’s decline with the selling rate ending at J$128.77 from J$128.68 previously.
Dealers bought the US currency at an average of J$127.36, versus J$127.23 on Monday. Trading ended with inflows of US$38.41 million compared to US$45.59 million on Monday with Bank of Jamaica is entitled to approximately 25 percent of the inflows or around $10 million of Tuesday’s intake. Outflows amounted to only US$35.70 million compared to US$30.40 million of all currencies on the prior trading day.
In USA dollar trading, inflows ended at US$ 31.76 million versus US$41.64 million on Monday with outflows of US$26.33 million compared to US$28.38 million.
The selling rate for the Canadian dollar climbed to J$104.44 from J$103.82 at the close on Monday while the British Pound was more costly, with J$167.23 buying the British currency versus J$166.02 and the euro, rose in value against the Jamaican dollar, with it jumping to J$156.41 to buy the European common currency, versus J$151.81 previously.
Lower interest rates ahead
Treasury bill rates on the decline and heading lower.
Investors chased $1.8 billion in Government of Jamaica Treasury Bills on offer on August 16 and pushed down the rates lower than in July, in the process.
The fall in rates helped the country’s central bank to lower its new benchmark overnight rate, by 25 basis points to 3.5 percent effective Friday August 25. The Treasury bill offerings, in tranches of $600 million each, replace $1.32 billion that matured in August. The offers with maturities of 91 days, 182 days and 273 days, resulted in average rates of 5.49 percent for the 91 days instrument, down from 5.63 percent in July, 5.99 percent for the 182 days bill down from 6.13 percent, with the 273 days bill, clearing at an average of 6.32 percent down from 6.5 percent in May.
The trend in interest rates is clear, with the downward drift resuming and needs to break below 5.8 percent for a sustained decline to take hold. It will only be a while, for Treasury bill rates to hit 4.5 percent but that is unlikely to happen until 2018. The accompanying chart shows the movement in the 182 days Treasury bill rate in red within a downward sloping channel pointing to lower rates ahead.
Construction boosting Montego Bay economy
The official data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica show that activity in the construction sector grew 0.4 percent in the December 2016 quarter and 0.2 percent in the March 2017 quarter.
New NCB Financial centre being built in Fair View Montego Bay
IC Insider.com took a tour of Jamaica’s two cities to get a glimpse of what was taking place in the sector and we have the pictures to show.
Within the Montego Bay area, the region of Jamaica that is said to be the fastest growing in the country, most buildings are taking place around the 
Fairview area that is next door to Bogue. Commercial activity continues to attract more entities to the western region and they seem to be heading to this location. Building of NCB Financial Centre for the region is in full flight and could be finished very soon, based on where the construction of building reached. Sited two blocks just south west of the Scotiabank centre the building occupies two stories.
Two new buildings going up at Farview, the one to the right is said to be a shopping cenre and a warehiouse to the left
Also going up close by was what is said to be a shopping centre, but that seems to be more like offices that should be ready for occupancy shortly, based on the painting of the exterior. And next to that building is another, that IC Insider.com was advised is a warehouse.Lands have been cleared and marled for what looks like another building or two one of which is a site for Victoria Building Society.
Other the other side of town on the way to adjoin the Pye River cemetery are two new commercial buildings,
New bidong going up at Bogue in Montgo Bay
one fairy advanced and another just going up, and across from what seems a BPO operations.
On the return leg to Kingston, IC Insider.com spotted advanced construction at what is commonly known as Puerto Seco Beach. This is said to be a Guardsman development and seems to be a resort type facility, with restaurants and cabanas in addition to the beach and represents a major upgrading of the popular
Pueto Seco Beach main building
Puerto Seco Beach facilities. This development is set to generate increased business for the Discovery Bay, a town that has been undergoing increased business activities in recent years with more commercial activities and business.
Increased activity within the sector has a number of positives, including increased employment during the construction phase for both skilled and unskilled workers and for workers who are going to be employed in the commercial entities after the constructions are completed. The wider Montego Bay economy will benefit from the business that will be conducted by the increased number of persons who will be employed. Entities such as taxis, buses, shops, restaurants and of course the government who will be collecting more taxes will all benefit for the increase economic activities to be generated.
Wider afield cement producer Caribbean Cement and paint manufactures as well as suppliers of other construction goods, will benefit from the continuing growth in the construction sectors in the region
Inflation eases in July
Inflation in Jamaica eased a bit in July to 0.6 percent compared to June 0.07 percent, according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin).
“For the second consecutive month the division Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages recorded the highest movement of 1.2 per cent. This was primarily due to an upward movement in the class ‘Vegetable and Starchy Foods up by 3.8 per cent,” Statin stated and the Transport division rose 0.3 percent. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels decreased by 0.3 percent a result of lower electricity rates.
Inflation for the calendar July come out at 2.7 percent, while the movement over the last twelve months runs at 4.5 percent, slightly more than the 4.4 percent at June.
Jamaican economy throwing up goodies
The Jamaican economy seems to be humming along pretty well, based on a number of critical measures that are available as well a physical evidence seen elsewhere.
There seems to be increased traffic around the corporate area at various times of the day, even when school is closed, thus reducing much of the normal peak hours traffic. Information from the Tourism sector is that visitor arrivals have climbed sharply since the winter months. There is strong evidence of increased construction activities with buildings be constructed across the length and breathe of Kingston and elsewhere in the country for commercial and residential purposes.
An examination of government’s statistical data is confirming some of these developments. Corporate taxes are up 33 percent over 2016 for the first 3 months of the fiscal year, an indication of higher sales and profit being generated. 
Education tax is running 7.7 percent ahead of projections and 13 percent above last year’s intake. Contractors levy is up over 2016 by 27.5 percent ahead of forecast, to reach $391 million and some 33 percent ahead of the intake for 2016 of $293 million, a good indicator of the health of the construction sector.
Traditional Exports are holding their own but with a slight fall in earnings for January to April 2017 of 1.5 per cent or US$3.4 million below the comparable 2016 period to US$216 million, but Non–Traditional Exports in the same period grew 36.2 percent or US$51 million above the US$140.9 million earned in the 2016 to reach US$192 million. Traditional exports should get a boost in the second half of the year with the resumption of alumina production at Alpart. Another critical indicator of increased health of the local economy is the second largest number of persons employed within a one year period of 35,500, for the twelve months to March 2017, only bettered by increased employment of 40,500 more persons between March 2015 and 2016,
The Hampshire Apartments complex being built by Guardian Life.
Of course, business confidence is at record levels, as investors pump more investments into the local stock market, driving it to new record highs on the last day of July, with increases expected in the months ahead.
Recent data in the forex market shows it generating strong net inflows with the local currency enjoying some revaluation after a slight fall earlier in the year.