Inflation moderates in September

Price fallPrices in Jamaica rose 0.4 percent on average in September compared to August 2015, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), reported. Inflation in August recorded an increase of 0.8 percent. According to the Statin report. The All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ Consumer Price Index increased, with the index moving from 229 to 230.
The calendar year-to-date movement was 2.6 percent, while for the last 12 months, year over year inflation stood at 1.8 percent.
Increases in cost in the Education category, amounted to 5.3 percent due to the increase in tuition fees, the second highest movement was for the division Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages which moved up by 1.1 percent. Two divisions recorded declines which moderated the overall movement in inflation with Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and other fuels fell by 1.2 percent and the Transport division is down by 1 percent.
The other divisions that recorded increases are: Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco 0.1 percent, Clothing and Footwear 0.6 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance 0.1 percent, Health 0.2 percent, Recreation and Culture 0.5 percent and Miscellaneous Goods and Services 0.2 percent while the divisions of Restaurants and Accommodation Services and Communication each recorded negligible movements.

Jamaica’s business confidence rebounds

Grhp Crrt B con 8-15Business confidence levels rebounded in August according to the latest survey of the perception of present and future business conditions relative to the previous survey a report from Bank of Jamaica shows.
Persons in the business sector were responding to the questions “In general do you think business conditions are better or worse than they were a year ago in Jamaica” and in response to the future, “Do you think that in a year from now business conditions will get better or get worse than they are at present”?
Grph fut BCon 8-15The index of present business conditions increased to 158.4 from 130.3 and the index of future business conditions rose to 150.7 from 135.2 in the previous survey. The survey is conducted by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica on behalf of Bank of Jamaica amongst Chief Executive Officers, Managing Directors and Financial Controllers. The most recent survey was conducted in August 2015 and had 319 respondents.

Major gains in Jamaica’s current account

Petroleum imports help cut trade deficit to June

Petroleum imports help cut trade deficit to June

There was major improvement in Jamaica’s current account deficit, provisional data for the June 2015 quarter show, relative to the similar quarter in 2014. The deficit came in at US$86 million, an improvement of US$185 million compared to US$271 million for the corresponding period in 2014.
For the March 2015 quarter, the Current Account enjoyed a surplus of US$39.4 million, an improvement of US$149.5 million over the similar period in 2014 as a result the current account for the year to June is negative US$45 million versus a deficit of US$398 million in the first half year in 2014.
The outturn for the June quarter reflected improvements on all sub-accounts except the Income sub-account which was almost unchanged. Net private and official capital inflows were, however, insufficient to finance the deficits on the current and capital accounts. As a result, there was a drawdown of US$177 million in the Net International Reserves of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ).
There was a reduction of US$80 million in the deficit on the merchandise trade largely associated with a decline of US$133 million in imports and a reduction of US$53 million in exports. “The reduction in payments for imports mainly reflected lower expenditure for fuel and raw materials. Consumer and capital goods imports rose. The decline in exports mainly reflected lower earnings from non-traditional exports and sugar. Notwithstanding the overall fall in exports, there were higher earnings from alumina exports for the quarter” the BOJ report states.
Hilton Rose Hall -Sagicor X Fund recent acquisition

Hilton Rose Hall -Sagicor X Fund recent acquisition

Services enjoyed the increased surplus US$65 million, reflecting improvements in travel, transportation and other services. Regarding transportation, there was a decline in freight payments associated with the reduction in imports while the improvement in other services was due principally to reduced payments for insurance services. Within the current transfers sub-account, the increased surplus mainly reflected growth of 4.6 per cent in gross private remittance inflows. There was a marginal increase in the deficit on the income sub-account stemming primarily from a reduction in inflows associated with compensation of employees.

Jamaica’s remittance up sharply

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US$ bungleRemittance inflows into Jamaica for June this year marked the fastest increase in any one month so far in 2015 with inflows jumping 11.9 percent for June to end at US$188.4 million, an increase of US$20 million above the inflows of June 2014, Bank of Jamaica remittance report shows.
Net remittances were US$173.3 million, an increase of US$19.7 million or 12.8 per cent over the similar period of 2014. The previous best monthly inflow was a 4.4 percent increase in January with $166 million came into the country. While June was the month with the highest percentage gain the best months for actual inflows are March with $194 million, April $187 and May $190 million.
For the six months to June a total of US$1,093 billion, were received into the system, an increase of US$40.8 million or 3.9 percent while inflows net of outflows amounted to US$985.7 million, a growth of US$38.4 million or 4.1 percent relative to the corresponding period of 2014.
Remittances make up a major part of Jamaica’s foreign exchange inflows with only gross inflows from tourism being better.

Interest saved cuts Phillips’ cost by $10B

Peter PhillipsPeter Phillips’ assertion that there will be a near $9 billion cut in the 2015/16 budget might have come as a shock to the country already reeling from the pains of severe economic adjustments but much of the work has already be done with a sharp $4.7 billion cut in interest payments to August.
The savings works out at more than $10 billion for the full year and might be even more with Treasury bill rate continuing to fall as such the Minister’s work seems a mere formality of recognizing that interest cost was over estimated in the first place and not for the first time.
Up to August, apart from the big drop in interest cost capital expenditure was underspent buy $4 billion with just spent out of the $16.3 billion budgeted for the 5 months period. The wages bill was underspent by $3.4 billion with just $$67.9 billion spent out of $71.3 planned. Other areas of recurrent expenditure saw arise of $1.4 billion above budget.

Collector of Taxes office, Constant Spring, Kingston.

Collector of Taxes office, Constant Spring, Kingston.

Tax revenues that were almost $3 billion ahead of target to July saw an erosion to August to an increase of $1.66 billion while overall revenues were off by $1.33 billion due mainly to $1 billion shortfall in grants. Corporate taxes jumped sharply by 27 percent over budget to contribute to the increase revenues while PAYE is down by 2 percent from budget.
Government borrowed $14 billion less in the local market than budgeted taking only $5.8 billion in new funds as opposed to almost $20 billion planned. But they borrowed $255 billion on the foreign side versus $59 billion planned but paid out $180 billion more than budgeted.

Imports & exports down to June

Petroleum imports help cut trade deficit to June

Petroleum imports help cut trade deficit to June

Jamaica continues to see gains from the fall in the price of petroleum on the world market but the country is not yet seeing the improvement in exports that is expected from the economic measures being pursued by the country. Thanks to a sharp drop in the country’s oil bill the trade deficit drop sharply by 11 percent in the first six months of this year.The merchandise trade deficit for January to June 2015 stood at US$1.9 billion, a fall of 10.9 percent compared to US$2.13 billion recorded in 2014. Imports decreased by 11 percent or US$316 million to US$2.55 billion. Total exports fell 11.4 percent or US$85 million to US$655 million compared to the similar 2014 period.
Traditional domestic exports during the 2015 review period grew 3.6 percent over 2014 to US$407 million, while Non-Traditional exports earned declined by a large 29.4 percent or US$92 million to US$220 million in 2015.
Import of buses for JUTC added to the Jamaica's imports to June.

Import of buses for JUTC added to the Jamaica’s imports to June.

The reduction in imports “was as a result of significantly lower imports of crude oil and processed fuels, primarily Bunker C grade fuel oil, gasoline, Automotive Diesel Oil, Propane and Butane”, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica said.
Excluding motor cars there was an increase in Consumer Goods of 8.7 percent or US$67 million to US$839 million during January to June 2015 compared to the same period in 2014. Expenditure on Capital Goods accounted for US$273 million of imports, up from US$256 million in 2014.

Jamaica ekes out 0.6% growth in Q2

The Mining sector grew the most in Q2

The Mining sector grew the most in Q2

Jamaica’s economy increased by 0.6 percent in the second quarter this year, over the similar quarter of 2014 in real terms an represents an improvement over the performance in the first quarter over that of 2014.
This growth in the June quarter was attributed to improved performance in both the Goods Producing industries and Services industries of 0.8 percent and 0.5 percent respectively, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) said in its report on the economy release at the end of September.
During the first quarter this year, the Jamaican economy grew by 0.4 percent when compared to the similar quarter of 2014. This growth was due mainly to a 0.6 percent increase in the Services industries” Statin said when they released the first quarter numbers in July. The reports are preliminary as Statin will revise them when more data becomes available.
According to Statin “all industries within the Goods Producing industries recorded higher levels of output: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (0.3 percent), Mining and Quarrying (4.1 percent) Manufacturing (0.2 percent) and Construction (0.9 percent).
Agriculture was negatively affected by drought conditions

Agriculture was negatively affected by drought conditions

The performance of the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry was constrained by drought conditions which continued to affect the island. The Mining and Quarrying industry benefited from higher production levels at the alumina plants. Increased output from the Manufacturing industry was due largely to higher production levels from the Food, Beverages and Tobacco group. Growth in the Construction industry was due mainly to increased activities in civil engineering”.
“The Services industries recorded higher levels of output with the exception of the Producers of Government Services industry which declined by 0.2 percent. Increased output was recorded for: Electricity & Water Supply (0.7 percent), Hotels and Restaurants (1.4 percent), Transport, Storage and Communication (1.4 percent), Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery and Equipment (0.3 percent), Finance and Insurance Services (0.4 percent), Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities (0.5 percent) and Other Services (0.5 percent).The Hotels & Restaurants industry was positively impacted by higher tourist arrivals from two of the main markets; the United States of America (USA) and Europe. Growth in Electricity & Water Supply was tempered by drought conditions which affected water production during the review period. Compared with the first quarter of 2015, the economy grew by 1.5 percent. This was largely attributed to an increase in the Goods Producing industries (2.8 percent) and the Services industries (1.1 percent)” the report stated.

Economy estimated to fall 2% to June.

Carib Beer brewed in Trinidad by  Ansa McAl Group

Carib Beer brewed in Trinidad by Ansa McAl Group

The domestic economy is provisionally estimated to have contracted by close to 2 percent in the first half of 2015 in Trinidad and Tobago. Domestic economic outlook has deteriorated the country’s central bank says in a recent release on the economy.
The report went on to state, “continued shortfalls in natural gas production saw the energy sector decline by an estimated 3 ½ percent in the first six months of 2015. The non-energy sector, which has provided support to the overall economy for the past few years lost momentum, declining by around 1 percent in the first half of 2015. This decline was mainly due to a slowdown in construction, distribution and manufacturing. Early indicators point to continued sluggish economic performance in the third quarter of 2015.”
Trinidad and Tobago’s economy is highly dependent on the petro chemical industries and has suffered from a sharp fall in the world market prices of produce from the sector. This decline was mainly due to a slowdown in construction, distribution and manufacturing. Government revenues are highly dependent on inflows from the sector. The expectation is for lower government spending going forward and the possibility of a devaluation of the country’s currency that has undergone an appreciation with the local dollar being stable for several years while inflation climbed sharply, leading to a possible overvalued Trinidad dollar. The country just changed governments and that could bring major shift in economic policies against the back ground of falling export earnings and the possibility that oil prices could fall some more on the world market.
This decline was mainly due to a slowdown in construction, distribution and manufacturing.

This decline was mainly due to a slowdown in construction, distribution and manufacturing.

With excess liquidity remaining at a comfortable daily average of $3.3 billion over the past three months (July – September 21, 2015), the MPC also decided to maintain an aggressive liquidity management programme so as to strengthen the impact of rising interest rates throughout the financial system. As at mid-September 2015, the median commercial bank prime lending rate had increased to 8 ½ percent from 8 ¼ percent in July 2015.
Domestic inflationary pressures have not materialized as initially expected. On a year-on-year basis to August 2015, headline inflation slowed to 4 percent from just over 5 ½ percent in July 2015. Core inflation was stable at just over 1 ½ percent, while food inflation decelerated to around 8 percent from double-digit territory of 11 ½ percent in July 2015. Although current price pressures seem contained, disruptions to domestic agricultural supply and higher production costs facing select food industries could lead to rising food inflation. Increased consumer spending driven in part by recently concluded public sector wage agreements, as well as robust consumer borrowing, could also push up inflationary pressures.

Repo rate hiked

UpIncreasegraphRepo rates moved up by 25 basis points to 4 ½ percent in Trinidad & Tobago. At its September 2015 meeting, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to increase the ‘Repo’ rate for a seventh consecutive time to 4.5 percent.
According to the central bank, the most influential factor behind the MPC’s decision remains the normalization of US monetary policy which could reduce capital flows to many emerging market economies, including Trinidad and Tobago, which is already adjusting to persistently low energy prices. The MPC also judged the domestic monetary policy stance as still very accommodative in the context of a contracting non-energy sector and moderate inflationary pressures.
The central bank last increased repo rates in July by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent, then the bankers stated apart from similar reasons as above that locally, rising inflationary pressures remain a concern for the MPC. Headline inflation held steady at just over 5 ½ percent in June 2015, while core inflation slowed marginally to just below 2 percent. However, the MPC expects inflationary pressures to pick up in the remaining months of 2015 due to a number of factors.
The central bankers stated that domestic inflationary pressures have not materialized as initially expected. On a year-on-year basis to August 2015, headline inflation slowed to 4 percent from just over 5 ½ percent in July 2015. Core inflation was stable at just over 1 ½ percent, while food inflation decelerated to around 8 percent from double-digit territory of 11 ½ percent in July 2015. Although current price pressures seem contained, disruptions to domestic agricultural supply and higher production costs facing select food industries could lead to rising food inflation. Increased consumer spending driven in part by recently concluded public sector wage agreements, as well as robust consumer borrowing, could also push up inflationary pressures.

Food prices push inflation in August

‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ had the strongest impact on the division moving up by 8.5%

‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ had the strongest impact on the division moving up by 8.5%

Sharp price movement in the prices for Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ had a major impact on inflation in August with an increase of 0.8 percent resulting in Inflation climbing 3.5 percent since August last year to August this year and by 2.2 percent, for 2015 to August, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported.
‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ recorded the highest movement for the month of 2.1 percent. ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ had the strongest impact on the division moving up by 8.5 percent as drought conditions persisted in the growing areas. The upward overall movement was, however, tempered by declines of 2.3 percent and 0.5 percent in the divisions ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ and ‘Transport’ due to lower petrol prices and reduction in air fares.
Other divisions that recorded increases are: ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.2 percent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.3 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.2 percent, ‘Health’ 0.1 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.4 percent, ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 1.3 percent, while ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ recorded a 0.2 percent increase. ‘Education’ and ‘Communication’ remained unchanged.

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