Big gains push TTSE index – Monday
Market activity on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange ended on Monday with trading in 17 securities against 13 on Friday, with 4 advancing, 4 declining and 9 remaining unchanged.
At close of the market, the Composite Index gained 8.62 points to close at 1,301.07, the All T&T Index climbed 22.32 points to 1,697.73, while the Cross Listed Index declined 0.75 points to close at 122.22. Trading ended with 199,899 shares at a value of $3,145,094 compared to 113,059 shares at a value of $1,694,615 on Friday.
IC bid-offer Indicator| The Investor’s Choice bid-offer ended with 2 stocks with bids higher than the last selling price and 1 with a lower offer.
Stocks closing with gains|Agostini’s rose 40 cents to $23.40, after exchanging 300 shares, Angostura Holdings added 20 cents to settle at $16, with 100 stock units changing hands, Ansa Mcal increased by 45 cents to $55.45, with 71 units trading and Massy Holdings rose 95 cents and completed trading at $47, after exchanging 182 shares.
Stocks closing with Losses| Clico Investments fell 2 cents and settled at $20.18, with 117,121 stock units changing hands, Guardian Holdings closed with a loss of 5 cents at $16.95, with an exchange of 4,007 units, NCB Financial Group shed 10 cents and ended at $8.50, after exchanging 1,175 shares and Sagicor Financial lost 5 cents and settled at $9.45, with 850 stock units changing hands.
Stocks closing firm| First Citizens ended at $33.15, after exchanging 289 shares, Grace Kennedy settled at $3.05, with 2,740 stock units changing hands, JMMB Group completed trading at $1.77, after exchanging 40,300 shares, National Enterprises settled at $8, with 70 stock units changing hands, National Flour concluded trading of 17,352 units at $1.65, Prestige Holdings concluded at $7.50, with 250 units trading, Republic Financial Holdings completed trading at $107, after exchanging 1,443 shares, Trinidad & Tobago NGL ended at $29.24, in exchanging 13,449 shares and Unilever Caribbean settled at $22.95, with 200 stock units changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.
Relative stability descends on IC Top 10
The volatility in the Jamaican stock market seems to have ended with the closure of the very popular Fontana IPO.
The main market rose towards the end of the week while the junior market declines have slowed sharply. IC Insider.com expects the usual Christmas rally to take hold and drive prices higher, ahead of 2019.
The attractively underpriced Fontana would be a sure pick for the TOP 10 list but it seems unlikely to be listed before January.
Lasco Financial came re-entered the TOP 10 last week is out having risen from $4.15 to $4.90 at week end. Replacing it is Jamaican Teas that could get a boost from gains in their equity portfolio. In the main market TOP 10, Sagicor Group that came into the list this past week, is now out and is replaced by Sterling Investments that fell in price at the end of the week to $4 from $4.49 the week before.
The main market closed the week with the overall PE remains at 15.7, the PE of the Junior Market remains at 15.8. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 8.8 and the main market PE is now 9.8. The top Junior Market stocks are selling at a discount of 13 percent to those of the main market stocks even as the overall average PE for both markets are almost equal. This is an indication that there may be more gains to be had from these Junior market stocks than those in the main market.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 44 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings. The main market stocks trade at a discount of 37 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.
No inflation
Fall in the price of fuel and appreciation of the Jamaica dollar helped in pushing inflation down in November with data out of Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) showing zero inflation.
According to Statin, the result was influenced by a 0.3 percent increase in the index for the division Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages. This was as a result of higher prices for vegetables, starchy foods and fruits but was tempered by a 0.8 percent decline in the division Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels due mainly to reduced rates for electricity despite the increased rates for water and sewage. The Transport division declined by 0.7 percent as a result of a decrease in the price for petrol. The calendar year-to-date inflation was 3.5 percent while the movement in the index for the fiscal year-to-date was 3.8 percent and the movement for the past 12 months comes out at 4.1 percent.
Scotia hikes dividend
Scotia Group delivered below par performance in that final quarter of the 2018 fiscal year, with profit falling to just $1.6 billion from $3.36 billion in 2017.
The quarterly results, however, is not an indication for what can be expected for the 2019 fiscal year as one time fall in revenues and in some cases, expenses are unlikely to be reflected for the full year to come. In keeping with expected pick up in profit the banking group hiked their dividend from the usual 48 cents per share to 51 cents in their latest announcement. Based on Scotia’s long held policy, when dividends are raised it is usually an indication that future dividend payments will continue at the elevated level for the ensuing period. Investors in the stock can therefore look forward to at least $2.04 cents for all of 2019. That will be a return on the latest stock price of $54.01 of 3.8 percent. Dividends paid in 2018 amounted to $1.92 per share. The total amount of dividends to be paid in January will be $1.59 billion which is alomost all the profit reported for teh quarter. The dividend will be paid on January 18, 2019, with the ex-dividend date set for December 24.