Jamaica’s merchandise trade deficit for 2015 continues to improve with the period to October showing a decline to US$3.1 billion, 12.6 percent or US$449 million less than the US$3.56 billion in the comparable 2014 period.
Imports stood at US$4.17 billion, a decrease of 13 percent amounting US$627 million, while earnings from exports amounted to US$1.054 billion, a decrease of 14.5 percent or US$179 million, compared to the similar 2014 period.
The main contributors to this overall decline in imports were Mineral Fuels that fell by US$668 million or 40 percent to US$1 billion in the 2015 period. “The reduction was due to lower volumes of crude oil and processed fuels as well as the fall in the prices on the international market’” the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) stated in their release of the figures.
Traditional Domestic Exports – accounted for 66.2 percent of total domestic exports during the 2015 review period with the inflows being flat with that of 2014 at US$674 million. “Non-Traditional Domestic Exports earned US$344 million to October 2015, reflecting a 31.6 percent or US$159 million fall from 2014 as all sub-groups decreased,” STATIN stated in their release of the figures.
At the end of September imports in 2015 declined by US$581 to US$3.79 billion. Earnings from exports amounted to US$970 million, a decrease of 13 percent or US$145 million compared to the similar 2014 period leading to a narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit to September to US$2.82 billion, a fall of 13.4 percent.
Archives for January 2016
Trade deficit continued to fall in 2015
Election 2016 who will win PNP or JLP?
Polling in Jamaica has gone from an exercise that a vast number of Jamaicans found to be incredible, questioning how a small sample of just 1,000 persons could be used to predict pretty accurately, the views of an entire population? Based on the accuracy over the years in forecasting election results, the vast majority, seem to have put their faith in them.
But when it comes to politics emotions run deep and there are mood swings as well. Take the polls since late 2014, the Don Anderson polls showed the following results:
The most recent poll show the PNP at 27.5% and the JLP at 23.2%, effectively the polls show that both parties lost active support since September last year. The PNP lost 2 percentage points and the JLP a much larger 6.4 percentage points, taking the latter below the core position held from 2014 to June of 25%. If the latest polls number were to hold come election day, the PNP would end up with about 54% to 46% for the JLP of the votes, on a head to head race which would put the PNP slightly ahead of the 2011 when they took 53.40% of the votes to the JLP 46.60%.
What is rather interesting is that RJR carried on their website a story of a recent canvass done buy the PNP in which Paul Burke says they are sure to win 32 seats, with 10 of the rest they have in doubt.
“RJR News has obtained a copy of the report which outlines that the Party is sure of winning 32 of the 63 Parliamentary seats. Of the remaining 10 seats from the 42 which were won by the PNP in 2011, two are deemed at risk of being lost and eight have been declared hard to win”. This information does not reflect an outcome as indicated by Anderson polls.
Analysis of the stock market show that it is a good indicator a year out from elections, for the party likely to win, in this case the market is suggesting the PNP. The recent polls are not convincingly showing that.
History is a useful guide. There is a tendency for polls to pick up incumbency support and less of opposition support. Carl Stone in an article written in 1981 stated that his polls prior to the 1980 election showed the JLP with 56% of the votes which was 3% points lower than the outcome of 59% of the votes cast that the JLP got compared to 41 % PNP. More importantly, a poll done in the summer months showed the polls narrowing from around 54% for the JLP to about 51% with the PNP seeming to have momentum with 49%. The situation between the two polls was fairly similar to late 2015 onwards where activity by one party seemed to have been more low-keyed, than the other.
A poll released by Anderson in early Oct 2002 showed the PNP with support amongst 54.4% of voters and the JLP with 45.3% but the outcome was PNP 51.5% and the JLP 46.9% a 5% point bias towards the governing party. In the last polls before the election in 2002 had the PNP at 52.3% to the JLP’s 46.9% still a slight bias towards the PNP but only marginally so. Between June 2007 and late July the poll had an incumbency bias of 4.8 percent to a low of 2.68 percent, the polls prior to the actual election ended with only a 0.30 percent bias in favour of the labour party. In the 2011 elections all Anderson polls from May up to the elections had a bias of 1.7% or less in favour of the JLP who were then in government.
What is also of interest, is that the poll numbers showed that the PNP slipped to 17% in the Anderson polls in December 2014 and has made a major recovery since. The JLP had a low of 15.9 % back in May 2011 and recovered much of the lost ground in polls taken after.
The 2007 polls make for interesting reading as it is one of the times when a party trailing prior to the election actually end up winning. In February 2007 the PNP trailed the labour party by 1 percentage point at 26% to 27%, in April the PNP pulled ahead with 25% to 23% in May it was 25% each way, by June it showed the PNP with a 4 percentage points lead at 29% to 25%. A second poll in June, showed the PNP moving ahead with 30.70% and the JLP barely keeping up at 25.60%. July saw a change, with the gap closing, but with the PNP ahead with 32.8% and the JLP at 29.3 percent at the end of July the PNP garnered 38.8 percent of voters support and the JLP was at 35.3% and the last one in August placed the PNP at 40.3% and JLP with 41.3%.
Will the 2016 polls closer to the election date narrow? History seems to support that view but time will tell and by how much. What is also of interest will be the turnout of voters. In the 2011 elections, turnout was 52.76 percent, if that were to happen this time it would result in a total of 93,047 votes over the level in 2011, raising the total to 962,485. If the Anderson’s latest polls numbers are close to accurate, there would only be about 2 percentage more points that either party could pick up based on the above, but the latest voters list is 10.7 percent higher than the 2011 one with an additional 176,374 voters or 20 percent of persons who voted in 2011.
FX trading remains elevated on Friday
Trading in the Jamaican foreign exchange market ended Friday with dealers buying the equivalent of US$55,187,652 and selling US$45,669,815, in stark contrast with US$71,660,961 purchased and US$66,585,264 sold on Thursday.
In US dollars trading, dealers bought US$51,122,324 compared to US$69,317,642 on Thursday with the buying rate for the US dollar slipping by 16 cents to $120.91. A total of US$43,774,345 was sold versus US$65,470,747 on Thursday as the selling rate climbed by 3 cents to $121.37.
The Canadian dollar buying rate rose 25 cents to end at $83.21 with dealers buying C$1,161,158 and selling C$572,649, at an average rate that gained 11 cents to $85.73. The rate for buying the British Pound rose $1.23 to $170.79 for the purchase of £1,882,740, while £795,747 was sold, with the rate climbing $2.06 to $173.89. At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, ended with a gain of 86 cents at J$132.74, from Thursday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$130.46 for a rise of $1.35 on Thursday’s rate. The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded, amounts to US$606,802 being bought, while US$350,831 was sold.
Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest rates the 
currencies traded at are, a rise of $1.25 in the highest buying rate for the US dollar that ended at $122 and a hike of $2 in the lowest selling rate to $118. The highest buying rate of the Canadian dollar lost $1.70 to $86.50 and highest selling rate dropped $1.62 to $88.38. The highest buying rate for the British Pound dropped $4.65 to $174.05, the lowest buying rate dived by $3.98 to $138.86, the highest selling rate dipped $4.35 to $179.80 and the lowest selling rate was down $5.55 to $165.15.
NCB at J$45.20 on TTSE – Friday
NCB’s traded on Friday at TT$2.40 or J$45.20 on TTSE
National Commercial Bank traded at a 10 percent premium over the last traded price of $41 in Jamaica on Friday, as the stock hit a 52 weeks’ high of TT$2.40 in Trinidad, having gained 12 cents while trading 52,325 shares. The gain stems from the company posting a 12 percent increase in profit for the quarter, to December last year.
National Commercial Bank stock remains in demand with a bid of $2.35 to purchase 121,645 shares and an offer to sell 14,053 units at $2.40.
The market closed with 15 securities being active on Friday with 5 stocks gaining, 2 declining with the prices of 8 remaining unchanged as the stock prices of 3 companies hit 52 weeks’ high and one stock closed at a 52 weeks’ low. A total of 323,981 shares changed hands valued at $3,160,392.
The Composite Index advanced by 0.87 points to 1,163.31, the All T&T Index lost 2.10 points to 1,931.28 and the Cross Listed Index gained 0.53 points to end at 52.16.
IC bid-offer Indicator| The Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator has turned negative with only 6 stocks with bids higher than the last selling price and 9 stocks with offers that were lower.
Gains| Grace Kennedy traded 1,300 shares to gain 3 cents and closed at a 52 weeks’ high of $4.15, Guardian Holdings had 966 units changing hands and gained 2 cents to close at $14.20, Prestige Holdings contributed 103,621 shares with a value of $1,060,013 and rose 4 cents while closing at a 52 weeks’ high of $10.23 and Scotia Investments contributed 90,246 shares with an increase of 2 cents to close at $1.60.
Losses| National Flour lost 6 cents to end with 1,793 shares changing hands at $2.27 and the late 2015 listed Trinidad and Tobago NGL fell 89 cents to a new 52 weeks’ low of $19.10 with 42,256 shares valued at $807,090 changing hands as lower energy prices puts pressure on revenues.
Firm Trades| Angostura Holdings ended with 850 shares changing hands to end at $13.60, Ansa Merchant Bank traded 3,631 units at $38.96, Clico Investment Fund traded 23,550 shares valued at $529,876 to close at $22.51. First Citizens Bank had just 25 shares changing hands at $35. Republic Financial Holdings closed at $112 with 2,730 shares changing hands, Sagicor Financial added only 588 shares and closed at $6.50, Scotiabank closed with 50 shares changing hands to end at $61 and West Indian Tobacco traded 50 units to close at $126.30.
Juniors market up 21% to Friday
Junior market stocks had big gains in January.
The volume of 1,176,492 units changed hands, valued at $6,265,417. At the close, 1 security ended with no bid to buy and 9 securities had no stocks being offered for sale. Trading could end with a strong gain at the close on Friday with a total of 9 stocks closing with bids higher than their last traded prices while none closed with a lower offer.
In trading, Access Financial Services closed at $16.80 with 9,500 units changing hands, AMG Packaging jumped $1 to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $15 with 5,514 units changing hands, Blue Power closed with only 385 units changing hands at $11, C2W Music closed with 9,935 units changing hands to close at 49 cents. Caribbean Cream ended with a loss of 15 cents as 25,562 shares changed hands to close at $4.65, Caribbean Flavours traded 43,830 units to end with a loss of 5 cents at $8.95, Caribbean Producers traded 11,000 units to gain 50 cents and closed at $5.50, Consolidated Bakeries traded 21,500 shares at $1.30. Dolphin Cove traded 5,560 units but fell 31 cents to close at $15.69,
General Accident rose 8 cents while trading 47,541 shares to close at $2.15, Honey Bun ended at a 52 weeks’ high of $9 with 28,500 units trading with a gain of 30 cents. Jamaican Teas fell 10 cents with 61,245 shares trading to close at a $4.90, KLE closed with 21,800 units changing hands at $2.22, after losing 28 cents, Knutsford express ended with 700 shares changing hands at $15.20, Lasco Distributors closed with 214,200 units trading and ended at $7.20, Lasco Financial closed at $4 with 166,857 shares changing hands. Lasco Manufacturing ended trading 484,867 shares to close at $5 and tTech closed with a gain of 5 cents at $4.75 with 17,996 shares trading.
JSE up 8% for 2016 to Friday
Jamaican stock market gained 8% in January
Main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed with gains in the indices on Friday with light trading volumes. Market activities closed with 43 securities changing hands in all market segments, 15 of which gained in the combined markets and 19 declined. At the end of the January trading accounted for $2.45 billion with the combined market index rising 8 percent, since the start of the year.
Two stocks closed at 52 weeks’ highs one at a 52 weeks’ low and one traded at intraday highs as 3,047,233 units valued at only $19,756,390 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 1,176,492 units changed hands, valued at $6,265,417.
The JSE Market Index fell sharply by 2,439.44 points to 159,591.63 the all Jamaica Composite Index closed with a big decline of 2,726.20 points to end at 177,308.95 and the JSE combined index dropped 3,176.12 points to close at 169,880.83.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 19 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 1 with a lower offer.
At the end of the market activities, Berger Paints lost 5 cents to end at $3.70 as 106,008 units traded, Cable and Wireless ended with 1,116,925 units changing hands to close 1 cent lower at $1.59, Caribbean Cement climbed $1.65 to close at $26.65, with 9,011 shares changing hands. Grace Kennedy fell 49 cents and closed at $83, with 1,378 units changing hands. Jamaica Broilers gained 39 cents to $14.49 with 37,753 shares changing hands, Jamaica Producers gained 3 cents to $29.15 with 100,420 units trading, JMMB Group traded 47,742 units but fell by 10 cents to end at $10.90, Kingston Wharves traded 9,700 units to close with the loss of 5 cents at $11.09. Mayberry Investments had 20,000 shares changing hands and fell 16 cents to $4.35, National Commercial Bank traded only 1,200 shares but rose $1.10 to close at $41.10 after the banking group released interim results to December, last year with a 12 percent increase in aftertax profit to $2.4 billion, up from $2.1 billion. Pan 
Jamaican Investment gained $1.50 with just 100 units changing hands to close at $98, Pulse Investments traded 29,583 shares with a rise of 25 cents to close at $3.25. Sagicor Group lost 55 cents to close at $22.90 with 40,900 units changing hands, Scotia Group had 9,70 shares changing hands to close with a rise of 30 cents at $31, Scotia Investments had 150,000 shares trading to close with a loss of $2 at $28. Supreme Ventures closed at $6.20 and gained of 20 cents with 105,730 units changing hands, JMMB 7.5% preference share traded 75,000 units at $2.10 after slipping 15 cents and 138 Student Living preference share traded at a 52 weeks’ low of $4.90 while trading 1,000 shares with a loss of 10 cents.
JSE make gains on Friday morning
The Jamaica Stock Exchange is recording gains after it retreated on Thursday but with varying price movements with declining stocks in the supremacy over advancing ones. AMG Packaging traded at a new high of $15, Caribbean Cement jumped $5 back to $30 but with only 7,500 units trading, Honey Bun trading at a new high of $9, Lasco Manufacturing was pulling back 46 cents to $4.54.
After 90 minutes of trading, the all Jamaica Composite Index climbed 954.95 points to 178,263.90, the JSE Market Index rose 854.50 points to 160,446.13, the JSE combined index gained 999.13 points to 170,879.96 and the junior market index fell 21.42 points to 2,169.12. In trading, 35 securities were active and accounted for 2,203,876 units changed hands with 11 stocks rising and 15 falling.
JSE in big pull back on Thursday
Main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed with sharp fall in the indices on Thursday with trading volumes being relatively light. Market activities closed with 42 securities changing hands in all market segments, 16 of which gained in the combined markets and 11 declined.
Two stocks closed at 52 weeks’ highs and one traded at intraday highs as 8,147,718 units valued at $82,326,591 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 2,952,252 units changed hands, valued at $17,175,945.
The JSE Market Index fell sharply by 2,439.44 points to 159,591.63 the all Jamaica Composite Index closed with a big decline of 2,726.20 points to end at 177,308.95 and the JSE combined index dropped 3,176.12 points to close at 169,880.83.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 16 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 3 with lower offers.
At the end of the market activities, Berger Paints gained 35 cents to end at $3.75 as 403,923 units traded, Cable and Wireless ended with 1,768,646 units changing hands to close at $1.60, Caribbean Cement dropped $3 to close at $25, with 176,469 shares changing hands. Ciboney traded 502,865 units but fell 3 cents to 24 cents, Grace Kennedy jumped $2.69 and closed at $83.49, with 20,140 units changing hands. Jamaica Broilers dropped $1.45 to $14.10 with 186,932 shares changing hands, JMMB Group traded 80,650 units to end at $11. Kingston Wharves traded 27,407 units to close with the loss of 1 cent at $11.14, Margaritaville Turks traded 151,100 shares at 11.05 US cents. Mayberry Investments traded 24,568 shares at $4.51 with a rise of 1 cent, National Commercial Bank traded with a fall of $1 to close at $40, 
with 654,604 units changing hands, Pan Jamaican Investment gained $2.50 with 3,346 units changing hands to close at $96.50, Pulse Investments traded 102,235 shares with a rise of 40 cents to close at $3. Sagicor Group gained 45 cents to close at $23.45 with 4,170 units changing hands, Sagicor Real Estate Fund traded 40,881 shares at $11.60, Scotia Group had 8,387 shares changing hands to close with a loss of $1.30 at $30.70, Scotia Investments had 1,920 shares changing hands to close with a gain of $3.50 at $30. Supreme Ventures closed at $6 to record a loss of 55 cents with 221,810 units changing hands, Proven Investments ordinary share gained 2.98 US cents in trading 691,400 units to close at 22.98 US cents, JMMB 7.5% preference share traded 70,222 units at $2.25 and Proven Investments preference share traded 49,000 units at $5.
FX trading jumps sharply on Thursday
Trading in the Jamaican foreign exchange market ended on Thursday at levels that is usually occurs on days when the Bank of Jamaica intervenes in the market. Trading ended with dealers buying the equivalent of US$71,660,961 and selling US$66,585,264, in stark contrast with US$33,911,551 purchased and US$32,180,833 sold on Wednesday.
In US dollars trading, dealers bought US$69,317,642 compared to US$30,531,051 on Wednesday with the buying rate for the US dollar rising 50 cents to $121.07. A total of US$65,470,747 was sold versus US$28,521,777 on Wednesday as the selling rate climbed by 3 cents to $121.34. The Canadian dollar buying rate dropped $1.80 to end at $82.96 with dealers buying C$1,004,415 and selling C$661,128, 
at an average rate that fell $2.37 to $85.62. The rate for buying the British Pound slipped 82 cents to $169.56 for the purchase of £1,117,479, while £359,952 was sold, with the rate falling 29 cents to $171.83. At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, ended with a gain of 38 cents at J$131.88, from Wednesday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$129.10 for a rise of 39 cents from Wednesday’s rate. The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded, amounts to US$90,020 being bought, while US$138,299 was sold.
Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest rates the currencies traded at are, a fall of $1.25 in the highest buying rate for the US dollar that ended at $120.75 and a hike of $16.97 in the lowest selling rate to $116. The highest buying rate of the Canadian dollar rose $1.50 to $88.20, the lowest buying rate rose $1 and ended at $68.81 and lowest selling rate climbed $1.50 to $80.50. The highest buying rate for the British Pound jumped $4.80 to $178.70, the lowest buying rate jumped by $4.64 to $142.84, the highest selling rate leapt $7.16 to $184.15 and the lowest selling rate was up $5.50 to $170.70.
Moderate TTSE trading on Thursday
Activity on the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange continued to reflect moderate trading with 10 securities being active on Thursday. The market closed with 1 stock gaining, 2 declining with the prices of 7 remaining unchanged. A total of 214,069 shares changed hands valued at $1,814,892.
The Composite Index closed unchanged at 1,162.44, the All T&T Index lost 0.01 points to 1,933.38 and the Cross Listed Index remained at 51.63.
IC bid-offer Indicator| The Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator has turned negative with only 6 stocks with bids higher than the last selling price and 9 stocks with offers that were lower.
Gains| Guardian Holdings had 760 units changing hands and gained 1 cent to close at $14.18.
Losses| Angostura Holdings ended with 110 shares changing hands but lost 2 cents to end at $13.60 and National Flour lost 2 cents to end with 100 shares changing hands at $2.33.
Firm Trades| Calypso Macro Index Fund had 1,207,633 shares changing hands for a value of $30,190,825 to close at $25, Clico Investment Fund traded 15,450 shares to close at $22.51. JMMB Group with 308,559 shares changing hands, closed at 55 cents, Massy Holdings ended with 20,000 shares changing hands to close at $59.89, Prestige Holdings contributed 147,379 shares with a value of $1,501,792 while closing at $10.19. Sagicor Financial Corporation added 41,290 shares valued at $268,385 and closed at $6.50 and West Indian Tobacco traded 100 units to close at $126.
