Four changes to ICTOP10

December 26, 2022 by

The Jamaica Stock Exchange Main Market closed the past week some 6,000 points higher than the previous week while the Junior Market ended slightly higher, resulting in four Junior Market TOP10 stocks declining between one and 5 percent as five gained between one and 31 percent while the Main Market TOP10 had six rising and three declining. 
The Junior Market Iron Rock Insurance popped 31 percent to $2.35, General Accident gained 13 percent to $5, followed by Dolphin Cove with an 11 percent rise to $14.78 and a 5 percent increase for Caribbean Cream to $3.35. Medical Disposables fell 5 percent to $4.90 and Lasco Distributors slipped 4 percent to $2.71.
In the Main Market, Guardian Holdings jumped 12 percent to $645, Scotia Group rose 9 percent to $34.90, followed by Berger Paints with a 6 percent rise to $10.61 and JMMB Group up 4 percent to $32.10. Stocks declining are 138 Student Living, that fell 12 percent to $5 and Jamaica Broilers, down 8 percent to $29.50.
After reentering the TOP10 in the previous week, the Main Market’s Scotia Group swapped places with Radio Jamaica returning to the TOP flight of stocks. The Junior Market’s CAC2000, Dolphin Cove and Medical Disposables dropped out, following lower earnings projections and were replaced by Caribbean Brokers with its price down to $1.98, Lasco Manufacturing and Tropical Battery.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.6, well below the market average of 14.4, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 6.1 versus the market at 12.6, important indicators of the level of the undervaluation of the ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 232 percent and the Main Market TOP10 by an average of 265 percent to May 2023.
The Junior Market has 14 stocks around 30 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 33, averaging 20 compared with the above average of the market. The top half of the market has an average PE of 17 and shows the extent of potential gains that lie ahead for the TOP 10 stocks. The situation in the Main Market is similar, with the 17 highest valued stocks priced at a PE of 15 to 105, with an average of 32 and 24 excluding the highest valued ones and 21 for the top half excluding the highest valued stock.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate, resulting in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Filed Under: Buy Rated Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Tropical Battery profit explodes in Q1

February 27, 2022 by

Tropical Battery reported stunning first quarter results to December, with profits surging 198 percent from just $19 million in 2020 to $56.7 million as revenues jumped 46.8 percent to $662 million and encouraging investors to react positively to the surprising numbers right out of the block by driving the price up 18 percent for the day of the release and 37 percent for the year to date.
Earnings per share climbed from 1.5 cents to 4.4 cents for the quarter.ICInsider.com forecast is for profit of $280 million, with earnings per share of 22 cents, for the year to September, more than five times 2021 full year earnings, with potential for the price to deliver gains of 153 percent.
Battery Sales jumped 52 percent from $389 million in the 2020 December quarter to $591 million while Tyre Sales rose from $6.5 million to $8 million and Accessories contributed $67 million compared to $60 million in 2020, just 11 percent more.
The big push in sales was facilitated by a recovery in the local economy but importantly, increased inventory levels that doubled from $434 million at the end of December 2021 to $873 million which is up from $609 million at the end of September last year, would have played a big role in increasing revenues. The increase in sales “was achieved through an increase in balanced inventory arrivals and a tremendous effort on the part of our sales team to surpass targets by bringing in new customers,” the company managing director and deputy managing director advised in their interim report to shareholders.
Other Income slipped 14 percent to $2.6 million and interest Income dropped 39 percent to $3.6 million.
Improvement in profit margin remained at 30 percent for both quarters and resulted in gross profit rising 44 percent to $196 million from $136 million in 2020 as cost of sales rose just ahead of the increase in revenues.
Administrative expenses rose 10 percent to $114 million in the quarter from $104 million in 2020. Depreciation charges jumped 79 percent to $16 million. Finance costs rose 13 percent, to $15 million from $13.5 million in 2020.

Tropical Battery line of products

The operation generated gross cash flow of $73 million but ended up with negative inflows of $30 million after increase in working capital and addition to fixed assets and ended with cash funds of $144 million. At the end of the quarter, current assets rose to $1.6 billion from $1.09 billion in 2020 while current liabilities moved from $343 million at the end of December 2020 to $679 million, leaving net current assets at $933 million. Payables rose to $564 million from $223 million at the end of 2020, at the same time shareholders’ equity stands at $883 billion with borrowings at $568 million.
“With our more-than-adequate levels of inventory, we see a bright year ahead. We are also currently expanding our top-selling retail store, located on Grove Road, just off Half Way Tree Road in Kingston, which will allow us to increase sales at this location even further, and achieve higher profitability, given that retail margins are better than our wholesale margins while offering greater comfort and convenience for our team members and customers with a substantial increase in square footage. We plan to increase our retail presence island-wide in the coming quarters. The company rolled out new products in the quarter and plan to launch more in the March quarter”, the company stated in a report to shareholders, jointly signed by Alexander Melville, Managing Director and Daniel Melville Deputy Managing Director.
The stock traded at $1.74 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of just 8 times 2022 earnings compared to an average of over 19 for the market and sits at the top of ICTOP10 Junior Market listing.

Filed Under: Buy Rated, Company News, Company Results Tagged With: , , , ,

Earnings projections wanted for all IPOs

February 21, 2021 by

FESCO may have computed the projection of income and profit to 2025 incorrectly by overstating some expenses but they are on the right track and must be commended for including the forecast in their prospectus, a very useful addition.
This publication has been rightly calling for all prospectuses to include forecasts of income and profits for three years at a minimum, but prior to the FESCO issue only new companies have been doing so. The lack of forecast is a disservice to the investing public.
The Alliance Financial Services prospectus released to the public in December does not contain any forecast of revenues and profit so was the case for Tropical Battery in late 2020 as such, FESCO decision to include a forecast maybe just a voluntary exercise rather than a standard for the industry that investors can look forward to.
Management who are responsible for the contents of prospectuses has much more information about a company’s future than the investing public. Since markets depend on good and timely information to thrive, the lack of forecast in all prospectuses is a disservice to the capital market and investors. To ask new starts up companies to provide a forecast of the future and not more mature companies who are in a better position to do so defiles logic.
Stockbrokers taking companies public should help to raise the standard by putting forecast in all prospectuses for the benefit of the market development and the Jamaica Stock Exchange should insist on it and so raise the standard of information going to the public.

Filed Under: Initial Public Offers Tagged With: , , , , ,

Lumber Depot weekly IC TOP10 winner

January 24, 2021 by

Lumber Depot is IC TOP10 best performing stock in the past week with the price surging to $2 from $1.46 at the end of the previous week to close at $1.95 on Friday with a 32 percent rise. Jamaican Teas was next moving from $2.48, scaling a number of record highs to close with a gain of 16.5 percent for the week with the price closing at $2.89 on Friday.

Lumber Depot is the JSE stock gaining the most in the past week.

Caribbean Cream is the other Junior Market stock to post good gains for the week, with the price closing at $4.95 from $4.70 at the end of the previous week.
The Junior Market is up 4 percent since the 2020 close, that may not appear to be much, but if the gains continue at this pace for the rest of the year, the market will gain 67 percent get to more than 4,400 points. The market is currently powered by a bullish golden cross, setting to take the market beyond 3,000 points. The release of December results will play a big role in the next few weeks that will add fuel to the current gains.
The Main Market continues to slip in January, but technical indicator points to it heading towards the 460,000 points level on the All Jamaica Composite Index, in months.
The current TOP 10 report is based on earnings for 2020/21 as there are substantial gains ahead, for many stocks in the listings.
This week’s focus: Tropical Battery released audited accounts that saw profit dropping well below the $73 million initially reported by the company to just $29 million with the stock selling off to a low of 95 cents but bounced a bit thereafter.
Increase in taxation, depreciation and finance cost, were the main reasons for the decline in profit. ICInsider.com projects 8 cents per share earnings for the current year.
The audited accounts state that 1.3 billion shares are issued by the company, but further on in the note on share capital, it reports that a resolution was passed to increase the share capital by subdividing 250,000 the then issued shares by 4,550, resulting in 1.130 billion shares, instead of 1.1375 billion units that were issued. The note also suggests that the company issued 325 million shares to the public but omits to state that a portion was sold on behalf of existing shareholders.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 208 to 363 percent are Caribbean Producers followed by Elite Diagnostic and Lasco Financial. With expected gains of 124 to 331 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are, Berger Paints followed by Scotia Group and Carreras.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, from now to the second quarter in 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 17.1 and the Junior Market 15, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 7.9 at just 53 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 9.3 or 55 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 174 percent and 127 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Filed Under: Buy Rated Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

5 hot summer IPOs

June 13, 2019 by

Initial public offers have been extremely popular amongst investors who have made good money from the vast majority of them. Come this summer investors will get five more opportunities to invest in IPOS.
The last issue, Wigton Windfarm made several thousands investors happy, with the price rising as high as 90 percent over the IPO price of 50 cents. Even now that it is trading lower than the peak, investors are still more than 40 percent up on the initial price. Investors in the year’s first IPO, iCreate are not that lucky as the $1.01 they paid for the stock fell as low as 70 cents since and remains well below the IPO price.
Coming this summer are, The Lab that styles itself as a fully integrated 100 percent Jamaican born and bred advertising agency with global reach and an island swagger.

Kimala Bennett, Managing Director of The Lab.

Kimala Bennett is the company’s Managing Director. NCB Capital Markets are the brokers for The Lab, that could be looking at regional expansion. Clients include National Commercial Bank, JPS. Wendy’s Dominos, Supreme Ventures, Wray and Nephew, Grace Kennedy, Caribbean Broilers, Digicel. Persons in the know say this is one of those IPOs to plan for, as it is unique and profitable. NCB Capital Markets is also taking Eppley Property Fund, a company that owns property across the Caribbean, to market this summer as well as QWI Investments, a new company that invests in listed shares.
NCB Capital Markets is also brokers to Tropical Battery Company. The company expects to come to market in July, to raise around $200 million in an IPO our sources state. The company was founded in 1950 and later purchased by John Melville and remains in the  family, since. The company’s core business is the sale of automotive batteries, complemented by the distribution of several local and world renowned automotive consumer brands. Tropical Battery’s headquarters is located in Kingston, with distribution centres in Kingston and Montego Bay.
Another that will be coming to market is Sagicor Select Funds Limited an Exchange Traded Fund that is going to market in June to raise $5 billion. The fund according to Sagicor Investment CEO, Kevin Donaldson, will track the JSE Financial Index and will be rebalanced if needed, monthly. Donaldson indicates that the fund currently has assets of $1.2 billion already. Sagicor Investments could have 2 to 3 additional listings before the year ends.
When completed, the new listings on the Jamaica Stock Exchange will raise the listed ordinary shares to more than 80 and total listings to more than 100 securities.

Filed Under: Initial Public Offers Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,