Stocks dropped to their lowest levels this past week after falling even lower than they did to close of the previous week as investors continue to shun the market, but the time is not far off that Bank of Jamaica will begin lowering interest rates and fuel a market resurgence as they sent the clearest signal that interest rates have not only peaked but will be headed downwards this past week.
The first signs of an easing of rate came this past week with BOJ CDs rates plunging 16 percent to an average of 8.85 percent from over 10 percent where it stood for several months. Importantly, the central bank cut the stock of CDS it holds from a peak of $109.5 billion on March 3, down to $82 billion at the latest auction, far less than from mid-January to the end of February, as more than $58 billion chasing after the $18 billion that was offered last week. While this happened the foreign exchange market looks very liquid with the rate falling under $152 to one US dollar from $155 earlier in February.
Performance in the past week for the Junior Market TOP10 saw only two stocks rising and seven falling, the majority of the declining stocks registering fell by 3 percent or less. General Accident jumped 20 percent to $5.98, but the bids are not there at the close, to support the price, but selling has abated for this stock currently. Everything Fresh rose 9 percent to close at $1.55 and actually traded at $1.65 during the week. Iron Rock Insurance fell 13 percent to $2 and Caribbean Assurance Brokers lost 6 percent to $1.90.
The Main Market TOP10 saw the highest gaining stock rising just 34 percent, after Key Insurance jumped to $3.50 and was followed by 138 Student Living with an 8 percent rise to $5.40, but Caribbean Producers dropped 8 percent to $9.07. All other movements were 3 percent or less.
The Junior Market has a long term pattern, with the market starting to rise around a month before quarterly results are due and declining shortly after results are released. This is a pattern worth noting that can be built into investment decisions that can improve returns.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.5, well below the market average of 13.2, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.9 compared with the market at 10.6. The differences are important indicators of the level of likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 248 percent and the Main Market TOP10 an average of 274 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The Junior Market has 9 stocks representing 19 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 24, averaging 19, well above the average of the market. The top half of the market has an average PE of 15, suggesting that this may be a logical value for junior market stocks currently.
The Main Market 16 most valued stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 100, with an average of 29 and 19 excluding the highest valued stocks and 18 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation. The above average shows the extent of potential gains for the TOP 10 stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
Trading dipped to 110,426 shares for $1,177,661 down from 144,329 stock units at $2,249,219 on Thursday. An average of 6,496 shares were traded at $69,274 compared to 7,216 shares at $112,461 on Thursday. Trading for the month to date averaged 22,190 shares at $231,441 versus 23,016 units at $239,976 on the previous day. The average trade for February was 51,996 shares at $458,520.
At the close, Ansa McAl declined 2 cents to $50.83 after trading 162 shares, First Citizens Group ended at $50 with an exchange of 1,912 stocks, FirstCaribbean International Bank popped 1 cent to end at $7.15, with 8,207 stock units clearing the market. Guardian Holdings popped 45 cents in ending at $25.50 after an exchange of 4,332 units, JMMB Group remained at $1.75 with a transfer of 6,734 shares, L.J. Williams B share fell 17 cents to close at $2.56 after investors traded 10,000 units. Massy Holdings lost 10 cents to end at $4.55 after an exchange of 5,846 stock units, National Enterprises had an exchange of 53,739 stocks in closing at $3.73, NCB Financial rose 5 cents to $3.90, with 161 stock units crossing the market. 
One Caribbean Media remained at $3.50, with 5,000 units changing hands, Point Lisas ended trading at $3.59 with the swapping of 50 stocks, Prestige Holdings remained at $7.49 in switching ownership of 362 shares. Republic Financial closed trading at $138, with 1,820 shares crossing the market, Scotiabank ended at $78 while exchanging 2,690 stock units, Trinidad & Tobago NGL ended at $20.01 while 1,330 stocks passed through the market. Unilever Caribbean dipped 15 cents to $14.50 after an exchange of 145 units and West Indian Tobacco shed 21 cents to end at $16.79 as investors traded 7,936 stocks.
At the close, 144,329 shares were exchanged for $2,249,219, versus 247,249 stock units at $8,495,104 on Wednesday.
At the close, Agostini’s rose $1.25 to end at $59.75 in an exchange of 200 shares, Ansa Merchant Bank shed 20 cents in closing at $45.80 after 100 stocks were traded, First Citizens Group ended trading at $50 after 3,403 units changed hands. FirstCaribbean International Bank had trading in 120 stock units at $7.14, GraceKennedy dipped 10 cents to close at $4.60, with an exchange of 13,814 units, Guardian Holdings closed at $25.05 in trading 204 shares. JMMB Group fell 10 cents in closing at $1.75 while exchanging 7,660 stock units, L.J. Williams B share remained at $2.73 with the swapping of 20 stocks, Massy Holdings rallied 15 cents to $4.65 as investors exchanged 24,361 stocks. National Enterprises ended trading at $3.73 with an exchange of 23,940 shares, National Flour Mills remained at $1.50 after a transfer of 10 stock units, NCB Financial advanced 45 cents to $3.85 in switching ownership of 6,215 units.
Point Lisas popped 1 cent to end at $3.59, with 187 shares crossing the exchange, Prestige Holdings closed trading at $7.49, with 703 stocks crossing the market, Republic Financial remained at $138 after exchanging 3,102 units. Scotiabank lost 15 cents to end at $78 with investors transferring 4,864 stock units, Trinidad & Tobago NGL had an exchange of 5,000 stocks after ending at $20.01, Trinidad Cement popped 3 cents in ending at $3.54, with 20 stock units crossing the market. Unilever Caribbean remained at $14.65 after trading 1,031 units and West Indian Tobacco declined 5 cents to close at $17 with a transfer of 49,375 shares.
Investors traded 247,249 shares in exchange for $8,495,104 compared with 309,122 units at $2,736,260 on Tuesday.
At the close, Agostini’s fell 1 cent in closing at $58.50 after a transfer of 3,645 shares, Angostura Holdings dipped 45 cents to $23.12, with 1,980 stocks changing hands, Ansa McAl remained at $50.85 with investors transferring 276 stock units. Calypso Macro Investment Fund popped 25 cents to close at $22 in an exchange of 530 units, First Citizens Group slipped 1 cent to $50, with 128,511 units passing through the market, FirstCaribbean International Bank dipped 1 cent to $7.14 while exchanging 11 stocks. GraceKennedy had an exchange of 2,711 shares at $4.70, Guardian Holdings shed 1 cent in closing at $25.05 after trading 23,097 stock units, JMMB Group rose 10 cents to $1.85, with 1,500 stock units crossing the exchange. L.J. Williams B share increased 17 cents in ending at $2.73 after trading 293 stocks, Massy Holdings lost 5 cents to close at $4.50 in an exchange of 4,070 units, National Enterprises remained at $3.73 in switching ownership of 55,881 shares. 
NCB Financial lost 50 cents to end at $3.40 with 3,752 stock units clearing the market, One Caribbean Media declined 20 cents in closing at $3.50 after 5,000 shares were traded, Prestige Holdings dipped 1 cent to $7.49, with 160 stocks changing hands. Republic Financial had an exchange of 4,672 units at $138, Scotiabank shed 2 cents to end at $78.15, with 1,069 shares crossing the market and Trinidad & Tobago NGL dipped 4 cents ending at $20.01 as investors exchanged 10,091 stock units.
Investors exchanged 309,122 shares for $2,736,260, up from 129,513 stock units at $2,172,869 on Monday.
First Citizens Group rose 1 cent to end at $50.01 with a transfer of 6,067 stock units. FirstCaribbean International Bank popped 10 cents to $7.15 with the swapping of 16,501 shares, Guardian Holdings remained at $25.06 after an exchange of 44,732 stock units, Guardian Media remained at $2.20 with 1,000 stocks changing hands. L.J. Williams B share fell 17 cents to $2.56 after trading 10,000 units, Massy Holdings climbed 5 cents to close at $4.55 in an exchange of 141,781 shares, National Enterprises saw trading in 7,234 units at $3.73. National Flour Mills remained at $1.50 in an exchange of 31,552 stocks, One Caribbean Media closed at $3.70, with 2,010 shares crossing the exchange, Point Lisas dropped 2 cents to $3.58, with 40,731 stock units crossing the market. 
Prestige Holdings increased 5 cents to $7.50 as investors exchanged 70 stock units, Republic Financial ended at $138 after an exchange of 1,078 stocks, Scotiabank rallied 2 cents to close at $78.17 while exchanging 161 shares. Trinidad & Tobago NGL advanced 3 cents to close at $20.05 with a transfer of 791 units, Trinidad Cement lost 4 cents to end at $3.51 in switching ownership of 1,500 shares, Unilever Caribbean remained at $14.65 in trading 489 stock units and West Indian Tobacco gained 3 cents in ending at $17.05, with 2,000 units changing hands.
Investors traded 129,513 shares for $2,172,869 versus 250,020 stocks at $2,461,630 on Friday.
At the close, Angostura Holdings shed $1.22 to end at $23.57, with 1,994 shares crossing the exchange, Ansa McAl dipped 15 cents to close at $50.85 in trading 59 stock units, Calypso Macro Investment Fund declined $1.25 in closing at $21.75 after an exchange of 150 stocks. First Citizens Group slipped 5 cents to $50 after 6,169 units changed hands, FirstCaribbean International Bank dropped 10 cents to $7.05 as 6,414 units passed through the market, GraceKennedy fell 4 cents to $4.70 with 60 stocks changing hands. Guardian Holdings remained at $25.06 while exchanging 18,105 shares, JMMB Group increased 4 cents to $1.75 after 3,800 stock units were traded, Massy Holdings ended at $4.50 after an exchange of 41,050 shares. 
National Enterprises remained at $3.73 after investors swapped 25,930 stocks, NCB Financial shed 10 cents to close at a 52 weeks’ low of $3.90 with an exchange of 4,660 units, Prestige Holdings lost 5 cents to close at $7.45 with investors transferring 1,750 stock units. Republic Financial ended at $138 after a transfer of 5,168 shares, Scotiabank fell 15 cents to $78.15 with an exchange of 871 units, Trinidad & Tobago NGL declined 66 cents in closing at $20.02 in switching ownership of 1,100 stocks. Trinidad Cement rose 4 cents to end at $3.55 as investors exchanged 1,384 stock units, Unilever Caribbean dipped 14 cents in closing at $14.65 after 743 stock units were exchanged and West Indian Tobacco dipped 1 cent ending at $17.02, with 10,106 shares crossing the market.
Stationery and Office Supplies is said to continue to enjoy buoyant business into 2023, rose 3 percent to $15 and dropped out of the Junior Market ICTOP10 along with AMG Packaging as Main Event and KLE Group replaced those that fell out, with the former posting strong first quarter results that point to earnings of $1.80 for the year. KLE is now in, based on the fall in the stock price, but investment in the stock is not without above average risk. They are yet to release 2022 earnings, but they should benefit from pick up in business in their associated restaurant business in which they hold a 49 percent interest, with exposure in Montego Bay that will see added inflows from the considerable pick up in tourist patronage and should have income generated from managing the Bessa apartments in Oracabessa on the north coast of Jamaica.
The Junior Market is projected to rise by 245 percent and the Main Market TOP10 by an average of 282 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
Investors exchanged 250,020 shares for $2,461,630 versus 351,460 stocks at $4,432,169 on Thursday.
At the close, Angostura Holdings shed 1 cent to end at $24.79 and closed with an exchange of 82 shares, Ansa McAl gained 19 cents to close at $51, with 38 units changing hands, Ansa Merchant Bank ended at $46 with the swapping of 15 stock units. Calypso Macro Investment Fund rallied $1.50 to end at a 52 weeks’ high of $23 after an exchange of 100 stocks, First Citizens Group increased 5 cents to $50.05 with investors transferring 2,272 units, FirstCaribbean International Bank remained at $7.15 in trading 520 shares. Guardian Holdings lost 14 cents in closing at $25.06, with 55 units clearing the market, Guardian Media advanced 5 cents to end at $2.20 in an exchange of 965 stock units, L.J. Williams B share declined 2 cents to $2.73 while exchanging 720 stocks. Massy Holdings remained at $4.50 in an exchange of 40,100 stock units, National Enterprises ended at $3.73 as investors exchanged 151,024 units, National Flour Mills remained at $1.50 as 1,712 shares passed through the market. 
NCB Financial dipped 6 cents after ending at $4 in switching ownership of 18,836 stock units, One Caribbean Media climbed 18 cents to close at $3.70, with 4,000 units crossing the market, Prestige Holdings ended at $7.50 trading 403 shares. Republic Financial remained at $138 after 7,696 stocks passed through the exchange, Scotiabank ended at $78.30 after a transfer of 1,379 stock units, Trinidad & Tobago NGL popped 67 cents to end at $20.68 after exchanging 132 shares. Trinidad Cement dipped 4 cents to $3.51 with an exchange of 100 units, Unilever Caribbean fell 1 cent to close at $14.79, with 9,562 stocks crossing the market and West Indian Tobacco rose 3 cents in closing at $17.03 with a transfer of 10,309 stock units.
Investors traded 351,460 shares for $4,432,169 compared with 210,273 units at $7,118,445 on Wednesday.
At the close, Agostini’s popped $1.49 in closing at $59.99, as 8 shares passed through the market, Angostura Holdings gained 30 cents to end at $24.80 in an exchange of 25 stocks, Calypso Macro Investment Fund remained at $21.50, with 109 units crossing the market. First Citizens Group declined 11 cents to $50 in switching ownership of 20,955 stock units, FirstCaribbean International Bank ended at $7.15 in an exchange of 3,000 stock units, Guardian Holdings advanced 14 cents to close at $25.20 in trading 1,441 units. JMMB Group ended at $1.71 after exchanging 265 stocks, Massy Holdings rose 1 cent to $4.50 with the swapping of 172,966 shares, National Enterprises remained at $3.73 and closed with 33,000 stock units changing hands. 
National Flour Mills ended at $1.50 after an exchange of 200 units, NCB Financial fell 3 cents to end at $4.06 after 12,655 stocks changed hands, Prestige Holdings remained at $7.50 in trading 4,394 shares. Republic Financial ended at $138, with 1,671 stocks crossing the market, Scotiabank shed 9 cents after ending at $78.30 while exchanging 3,694 stock units, Trinidad & Tobago NGL dipped 69 cents to $20.01 with investors transferring 59,853 units. Trinidad Cement increased 4 cents to $3.55 after 4,174 shares crossed the exchange, Unilever Caribbean remained at $14.80 with an exchange of 1,032 units and West Indian Tobacco lost $1.25 to close at a 52 weeks’ low of $17 with a transfer of 32,018 stock units.
Investors exchanged 210,273 shares for $7,118,445 compared with 149,510 stock units at $2,710,520 on Tuesday. An average of 12,369 units were traded at $418,732 compared with 7,869 shares at $142,659 on Tuesday, with trading month to date averaging 28,720 shares at $262,991 versus 30,167 units at $249,203 on the previous day. The average trade for February amounts to 51,996 shares at $458,520.
At the close, Agostini’s declined $1.49 to $58.50 in an exchange of 10,500 shares, Angostura Holdings gained 60 cents after ending at $24.50 and closed with 228 stocks changing hands, Ansa McAl ended at $50.81 in switching ownership of 2,000 units. First Citizens Group fell 19 cents to close at $50.11 with the swapping of 158 stock units, FirstCaribbean International Bank rallied 10 cents to end at $7.15 while exchanging 2,500 stocks, GraceKennedy remained at $4.74 in trading 10,503 shares. Guardian Holdings shed 1 cent to end at $25.06 after a transfer of 9,564 stock units, JMMB Group dipped 14 cents in closing at $1.71 after an exchange of 43,500 units, Massy Holdings lost 1 cent in ending at $4.49 as investors exchanged 15,455 stocks. 
National Enterprises rose 2 cents to $3.73 with 52,000 stock units clearing the market, NCB Financial dropped 1 cent to $4.09 after an exchange of 725 shares, Point Lisas remained at $3.60 in an exchange of 1,493 units. Prestige Holdings ended at $7.50 after 160 stocks passed through the market, Republic Financial advanced $1 to close at $138 with a transfer of 38,051 units, Trinidad & Tobago NGL shed 4 cents to end at $20.70, with 21,993 stock units crossing the market. Unilever Caribbean popped 30 cents to $14.80 with 970 shares crossing the market and West Indian Tobacco lost 25 cents to close at $18.25 with an exchange of 473 stock units.