Stocks rose on the Jamaica Stock Exchange Main Market on Friday, with the volume of stocks trading declining 64 percent, with 97 percent lower value than on Thursday as rising stocks exceeded those declining, but the market closed with the IC bid-offer Indicator flashing short term negative signals.
The All Jamaican Composite Index gained 2,638.98 points to settle at 442,875.20, the JSE Main Index climbed 2,141.50 to 386,327.32 and the JSE Financial Index added 0.11 points to settle at 91.51.
Trading ended with 53 securities compared to 55 on Thursday, with 24 rising, 17 declining and 12 ending unchanged.
The PE Ratio, a formula to ascertain appropriate stock values, averages 15 for the Main Market. The JSE Main and USD Market PE ratios are computed based on ICInsider.com’s forecasted earnings for companies with financial years, ending up to the close of August 2023.
Overall, 13,174,872 shares were exchanged for $66,091,370 versus 36,352,680 units at $2,054,073,702 on Thursday. Trading averages 248,582 units at $1,247,007, compared to 660,958 shares at $37,346,795 on Thursday. June closed with an average of 281,913 units at $5,309,050.
Ciboney Group led trading with 2.89 million shares for 22 percent of total volume, followed by Radio Jamaica with 2.70 million units for 20.5 percent of the day’s trade and Sagicor Select Financial Fund with 2.59 million units for 19.7 percent market share.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows nine stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 11 stocks with lower offers.
At the close, Berger Paints added 70 cents in ending at $12.20, with 337 shares crossing the market, Caribbean Cement lost $2.50 to end at $64.50, with 20,215 stocks changing hands, Eppley fell 50 cents in closing at $44.50 after trading 175 stock units. First Rock Capital declined $1.55 to close at $11.75 while exchanging 5,681 units, Guardian Holdings rallied $16.99 to $519.99, with 1,654 shares crossing the exchange, Jamaica Producers advanced 45 cents to $22.45 trading 2,595 units. JMMB Group climbed $1.90 to close at $43.65 closed at 59,098 stock units, Key Insurance dropped 52 cents to end at $3.38 with the swapping of 2,005 stocks, Massy Holdings gained $1.30 after ending at $93 in exchanging 55,872 stocks. Mayberry Jamaican Equities popped 85 cents in closing at $13.85 with an exchange of 602 shares, Palace Amusement rose $45 to $945 with 23 stock units clearing the market, PanJam Investment climbed 98 cents in closing at $65.98 in an exchange of 138,936 units. Proven Investments rose $1.27 to close at $37.29 after exchanging 22,727 units, Radio Jamaica rallied 50 cents in ending at $2.90 after 2,700,500 stock units were exchanged, Scotia Group rose 45 cents to $36.50 in switching ownership of 1,039 shares. Seprod shed 70 cents in closing at $71.25, with 4,408 stocks crossing the exchange, Supreme Ventures increased 75 cents to close at $31.45 after exchanging 327,481 units and Sygnus Real Estate Finance recovered from the sharp fall on Thursday by gaining $1.26 to end at $12.51 in switching ownership of 501 shares.
In the preference segment, Eppley 7.25% preference share popped $1.94 to $21.99 after trading 2 stock units.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.
Improved tourist arrivals boost CPJ earnings
Caribbean Producers transformed itself following the pressures posed by the closure of the hotel sector it primarily serves in 2020 and the relatively prolonged period taken to get back to normal levels.
Notably, revenues are rising again and delivering record profits even for a period when tourism numbers were 28 percent down for the March 2022 quarter from 2019. The June quarter could see 30 percent higher arrivals than the March quarter resulting in more revenues for the June quarter compared with that for the March quarter.
The above data portends more positive revenue growth for the coming fiscal year that starts in July. There will be a significant revenue hike in the first three quarters of the 2023 fiscal year, compared to the current fiscal year, with the tourism sector back to normal as indicated by preliminary June quarter arrivals. There should also be improved performance in the June quarter of 2023 compared to 2022, which enjoyed much recovery but was still not at full capacity.
According to Mark Hart and Tom Tyler, directors of the company, “the group remains optimistic for the fourth quarter of the financial year due to strong hotel bookings reported by our customers.”
The group is diversifying their revenue stream, making more investments in stores and adding new product lines for local consumption.
Revenues for the March quarter surged 123 percent to US$28.36 million over 2021 with just $12.7 million with the nine months to March delivering revenues of $86.44 million, up 133 percent above the $37.11 million generated in 2021. Interest and other income generated $89,700 for the quarter, down from $182,000 in 2021 and $652,000 for the nine months to date, up 93 percent over 339,000 in 2021. Profit margin slipped to 31 percent in the quarter but rose to 32 percent for the year to date, with gross profit of $8.9 million from $3.5 million in 2021 and $27.6 million for the nine months to March versus $9.9 million in 2021.
Depreciation cost was steady at just over 1 million for the quarter in both years and $3.2 million for the year to date but Administrative and selling expenses jumped 63 percent in the quarter to $5.2 million from $3.19 million in 2021 and rose 57 percent to $14.7 million for the nine months from $9.4 million in 2021. Finance cost rose 80 percent to $794,810 from $441,626 for the quarter and 71 percent to $2,290,676 from $1,336,016 for the nine months.
Gross cash flow brought in $10.2 million, but growth in receivables, inventories and addition to fixed assets resulted in outflows of $2.4 million, but net loan inflows amounting to $2.4 million resulted in a slight dip in cash funds on hand at the end of the quarter. At the end of March, Current assets amounted to $53.5 million, including Inventories of $30 million, receivables of $19.3 million and cash and bank balances of $4.2million. Current liabilities ended at $25.3 million, resulting in net current assets of $28.2 million. Heavy debt is a major concern at US$43 million in borrowings with equity of just $22 million.
Earnings per share came out at 0.14 of one US cent for the quarter and 0.62 of a US cent for the nine months. IC Insider.com forecasts J$1.65 per share for the fiscal year ending June 2022, with a PE of 8.55 times the current year’s earnings based on the price of $14.11, the stock traded on the Jamaica Stock Exchange Main Market and EPS of $2.60 for 2023 with a PE of a mere 5.4 and putting the stock price in the $50 range by 2023. Net asset value is $3.14, with the stock selling at 3.5 times book value.
All currency is the US dollar unless otherwise stated.
Big gains for ICTOP10 stocks
CAC2000 and AMG Packaging each gained 21 percent this past week, on top of the 10 percent gain in the previous week, while Medical Disposables rose 19 percent and Caribbean Cream and Jetcon Corporation added 10 percent to their price in the Junior Market ICInsidert TOP10.
Former Top10 listed Dolla Financial gained 17.7 percent to close the week at $2.75 after the stock traded as high as $3.60 on Tuesday.
The week ended with one new listing in the TOP10 as the gains by AMG Packaging pushed it out of the Top 10 and is replaced by General Accident, with a fall in the price to $5.79. Elite Diagnostic fell 6 percent to close the week at $3.32 and Lasco Distributors lost 4 percent to close at $3.20.
In the TOP10 Main Market, Berger Paints climbed 11 percent to $12.18 after trading more than 52,000 shares on Thursday and Friday, an unusual amount and Sygnus Credit Investments rose 5 percent to $14.95 while Caribbean Cement lost 8 percent to $64.50 and VM Investments gained 4 percent. There were no significant losers in this market.
Keep a careful watch on Dolphin Cove and Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS) that are close to the top10 and are undervalued. Both companies reported solid gains for 2022 back to school demand. The company also shipped a container of goods recently to the Eastern Caribbean. Dolphin Cove is benefitting from cost reduction in its operations, but more importantly, the solid first quarter results occurred when tourism arrivals were only 63 percent of 2019 numbers. In the first two months of the June quarter, tourist arrivals are 95 percent of the 2019 period and this is bound to have a positive impact on pushing the second quarter numbers much higher than for the first quarter as well as for the balance of the year. A similar situation would apply to Caribbean Producers, a significant supplier to the hotel sector.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 6.2, well below the market average of 14.5, while the Junior Market PE for the Top 10 is 6.1 versus the market at 13. The Junior Market TOP10 is projected to gain an average of 230 percent by May 2023 and the Main Market 238 percent.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate, resulting in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.