Is the end of king sugar nigh?

What is happening to the local sugar industry is a disaster, one made worse by the Chinese taking over the country’s two largest factories.

To read that the already ridiculously low forecast of just 100,000 tons of sugar is being lowered to 91,000, says eloquently, that the industry is in a major crisis and in urgent need of major surgery.
Frome Sugar Factory the report states, closed the crop with only 20,451 tons of sugar from 247,000 of canes, that is a yield of 12 tonnes of cane to a ton of sugar which can be considered poor. In the late 1970s and very early 1980s, Frome produced over 70,000 tonnes of sugar and Monymusk around 50,000 tonnes.
What is really happening in the industry? Long Pond in Trelawny, use to produce around 15,000 tonnes per crop and Dunkenfield just under that. Canes that went to Bernard Lodge that use to produce over 40,000 tonnes of sugar was going to Monymusk. What the data is indicating is that the three smaller factories are producing close to their historical norm, so what exactly is happening why the two big factories are dying.
Pricing maybe a problem but it appears that weak management with lack of experience is the major reason. The reality is that even if Frome continued production to the end of the crop, they cannot be profitable at roughly a third of capacity. Whatever, the factors, the government needs to pay urgent attention to the two large factories. In reality there are just not enough canes in the fields to make for a viable factory operation at either Frome or Monymusk and there are no signs that this critical aspect of the industry is being addressed in the areas close to these factories.

Paltry Jamaica Stock Exchange trades – Monday

Trading in the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed on Monday with a sharp fall in volume and value traded and a drop in the market indices. The All Jamaica Composite Index declining 1,197.69 points to close at 262,775.04, the JSE Market Index fell 1,091.23 points to 239,417.82 and the JSE US dollar market index closed at 215.54.
At the close of trading, 31 securities changed hands with 2 trading in the US dollar market, leading to 10 stocks advancing and 9 declining. Trading in the main market ended with 1,059,661 units valued at just $8,670,794 changing hands, compared to a much higher, 3,774,318 units valued at $94,412,872 at the close on Friday. Trading in the US dollar market accounted for 98,500 units valued at US$28,311.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 7 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 with lower offers.
The main market ended trading with an average of 36,540 units valued at a mere $298,993 for every security traded, compared to an average of 145,166 units valued at $3,631,264 on Friday. The average volume and value for the month to date ended at 97,758 units with an average value of $2,120,059 compared with an average of 128,368 units and $3,030,592 on the previous trading day. The average volume and value for May ended at 358,008 units and $9,037,303.
In market activity, Berger Paints closed at $18, with a loss of 64 cents exchanging 41,750 shares, Cable and Wireless closed at $1.30 trading 62,785 stock units, Caribbean Cement traded 99 cents lower to close at $29, with an exchange of 3,486 shares, Carreras lost $5 with 950 shares changing hands and closed at $84, Grace Kennedy advanced $2.01 to close at $43, trading 28,738 units, Jamaica Broilers closed at $17.96, gaining 6 cents with 38,773 shares being exchanged, Jamaica Producers lost 50 cents to close at $16 trading 43,524 units. Jamaica Stock Exchange closed at $7.39 with an exchange of 21,947 shares, JMMB Group traded 36,475 units at $20.50, Kingston Properties traded 49 cents higher to close at $11.49, with 1,224 shares changing owners, Kingston Wharves exchanged 1,108 shares at $32, Mayberry Investments lost 5 cents to close at $4.70, with an exchange of 50,700 shares, NCB Financial Group closed at $70.55, losing 44 cents after exchanging 6,431 shares, 138 Student Living exchanged 2,900 stock units at $4.49 and 1834 Investments gained 10 cents to close at $1.50 trading 16,000 shares. PanJam Investment closed at $35 trading 3,430 shares, Portland JSX lost 35 cents to close at $10.15, with 3,700 shares changing hands, Pulse Investments traded $2 lower to close at $16, with 9,313 shares, Radio Jamaica exchanged 145,825 shares at $1.70, Sagicor Group added 5 cents to close at $34.25 trading 39,824 shares and Sagicor Real Estate Fund rose 82 cents to close at $11.50, with 2,177 shares changing hands. Salada Foodsgained 55 cents, closing at $9.02, with an exchange of 350 shares, after trading at a 52 weeks’ intraday high of $10. Scotia Group dropped $2.10 and closed at $43.80, exchanging 6,424 shares, Scotia Investments traded $1.35 lower to close at $36.50, with 750 shares changing ownership, Seprod closed at $29.90, with gains of 38 cents trading 500 shares, Sterling Investments closed at $16.90, gaining $1.40 with 5,000 shares changing hands while Supreme Ventures added 29 cents to close at $7.49 exchanging 62,690 shares. Margaritaville Turks exchanged 4,500 units at 34 US cents, Proven Investments traded 94,000 ordinary shares at 28.49 US cents, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.5% preference share closed at $2 with trades of 5,984 units and JMMB Group 7.5% preference share closed at $1.15 exchanging 415,000 units.

 

Trading volume drops for Junior stocks

Junior Market stocks closed lower on Monday.

The Junior Market closed on Monday with reduced with 997,351 units valued $7,021,540 trading, compared to 5,891,343 units valued $15,986,987 on Friday. At the close 7 stocks advanced and 7 declined with 19 securities traded, compared to 20 on Friday. The market index declined 15.37 points to 3,317.28.
At the close of trading, 4 stocks having bids higher than their last sale prices and 3 closed with lower offers.
The Junior Market ended trading with an average of 89,906 units for an average value of $369,555 compared to 294,567 units for an average value of $799,349, on the previous trading day. The average volume and value for the month to date are 217,483 units valued at $1,055,012 compared with 281,272 units valued at $1,397,740, previously, In contrast, May closed with averages of 89,339 units and $596,722.
the close of the market, Blue Power lost $2 to close at $53 with 696 units changing hands, CAC 2000 rose 2 cents and closed at $7.22 with 4,640 shares trading, Cargo Handlers eased by 10 cents and closed at $17.90 with 1,063 shares trading, Caribbean Flavours traded 1,513 units to end at $12, Caribbean Producers traded 487,000 units at $3.50, Derrimon Trading rose 50 cents and ended at record close of $9.50 with 170,374 shares changing hands, Dolphin Cove fell 2 cents and ended at $19.98 with 983 shares being swapped, General Accident closed trading with 50,000 shares to end at $2.90, Honey Bun climbed by 56 cents with just 9,225 shares changing hands to close at $6.10, Teas closed trading with 2,200 shares, at $4.50. Jetcon Corporation ended at $14.88 with 110,950 shares trading, after adding 88 cents, Knutsford Express traded 81,774 shares and gained 89 cents, in closing at a record high of $16.89, Lasco Distributors lost 30 cents and ended trading 4,127 units at $7.20, Lasco Financial fell 25 cents, with 11,325 shares changing hands to end at $4.05, Lasco Manufacturing fell 23 cents closed at $4.85 in trading 37,127 shares. Main Event lost 10 cents and ended trading 10,531 shares at $6.90, Medical Disposables ended at $6 with 1,407 units crossing the exchange, Paramount Trading rose 3 cents and ended with 12,200 shares changing hands at $3.04 and tTech had just 216 units changing hands at $8 after gaining 49 cents.

JSE main market jumps – Friday

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Carreras closed at a new high of $89 on Friday.

The closing indices in the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed strongly higher on Friday by more than 2,000 points even as the advance decline ratio was almost one to one. The market closed with 27 securities changing hands including 1 trading in the US dollar market. At the close, 10 stocks advanced and 9 declined.
Trading levels in the main market ended at 3,774,318 units valued at $94,412,872 compared to 2,282,207 units valued at $48,598,384 at the close on Thursday. Trading in the US dollar market accounted for 27,750 units valued at US$7,906.
The All Jamaica Composite Index advanced 2,195.29 points to close at 263,972.73 the JSE Market Index climbed 2,000.15 points to finish at 240,509.05 and the JSE US dollar market index gained 0.45 points to close at 215.54.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 10 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and none with lower offers.
The main market ended trading with an average of 145,166 units valued at $3,631,264 for each security traded, compared to an average of 111,569 units valued at $2,429,919 on Thursday. The average volume and value for the month to date, are 128,368 units and $3,030,592. The average volume and value for May ended at 358,008 units and $9,037,303.
In market activity, Barita Investments traded 10 cents lower to close at$7.10, with an exchange of 82,225 shares, Berger Paints gained 10 cents, closing at $18.64 with trades of 9,642 shares, Cable and Wireless closed at $1.30, trading 541,675 shares while Caribbean Cement exchanged 4,915 shares at $29.99. Carreras jumped $4 to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $89, with 13,837 shares changing hands, Grace Kennedy lost 1 cent to close at $40.99 exchanging 1,141,371 units, Jamaica Broilers closed at $17.90, losing 10 cents with 57,091 shares traded at the same time Jamaica Producers lost 20 cents to close at $16.50, with 82,100 shares traded. Jamaica Stock Exchange gained 19 cents, closing at $7.39 with an exchange of 165,761 shares, JMMB Group closed at $20.50, with gains of 50 cents trading 79,537 units, Kingston Properties traded 50 cents lower to close at $11, with 15,277 shares, Kingston Wharves exchanged 15,524 shares at $32, Mayberry Investments lost 5 cents to close at $4.75, with an exchange of 39,790 shares, NCB Financial Group was down 1 cent to $70.99, after exchanging 69,538 shares, 138 Student Living exchanged 2,900 shares at $4.49. PanJam Investment closed at $35, with gains of 50 cents trading 5,955 shares, Portland JSX added 35 cents to close at $10.50, with 1,417 shares changing ownership, Pulse Investments traded 1,000 shares at $18, Radio Jamaica exchanged 7,216 shares at $1.70, Sagicor Group lost 40 cents to close at $34.20, with trades of 179,803 units. Scotia Group closed at $45.90, with gains of $1.91 exchanging 430,372 shares, Seprod closed at $29.52, with a loss of 48 cents trading 1,221 stock units, Sterling Investments closed at $15.50, with 350,890 shares changing hands, Supreme Ventures gained 20 cents to close at $7.20 exchanging 306,881 shares. Proven Investments traded 27,750 ordinary shares at 28 US cents, Jamaica Money Market 7.5% preference share gained 18 cents, closing at $2 with trades of 2,500 units and JMMB Group 7.5% preference share closed at $1.15, with a gain of 5 cents in exchanging 165,880 units.

Junior stocks trade at new highs

The Junior Market enjoyed a day with a positive index move on Thursday as two stocks traded at intraday highs but with closing prices mostly down as 4 advanced and 8 declined as a total of 19 securities traded compared to 20 on Wednesday.
The market index rose 12.13 points to close at 3,344.03 as 5,091,552 units valued $37,926,494 traded compared to 1,267,600 units valued $7,528,786 changing hands on Wednesday. At the close of trading, 7 stocks having bids higher than their last sale prices and 2 with lower offers.
The Junior Market ended trading with an average of 267,976 units for an average value of $1,996,131 compared to 63,380 units for an average value of $376,439, on the previous trading day. May ended with averages of 89,339 units and $596,722.
At the close of the market, Access Financial traded at a new high of $52 but ended at $50 with 13,657 units changing hands, Cargo Handlers lost $1.01 and closed at $18 with 1,000 shares trading,Caribbean Producers lost 19 cents with 258,000 units changing hands at $3.60, Consolidated Bakeries rose 15 cents trading 107,844 shares to close at $2.90, Derrimon Trading rose 25 cents and ended at $9 with 10,000 shares changing hands, Dolphin Cove ended at $20 with 8,555 shares trading, Eppley had 24,915 units changing hands to close of $12, after trading at a new high of $13, General Accident closed trading with 46,733 shares to end at $2.90, Jamaican Teas dropped 33 cents and closed trading with 11,484 shares, at $3.67. Jetcon Corporation lost 80 cents to end at $14 with 1,001,600 shares trading, KLE Group closed with 25,676 shares trading at $1.80 with a loss of 22 cents. Lasco Distributors lost 20 cents and ended with 1,169,175, units trading at $7, Lasco Financial fell 3 cents, with 30,050 shares changing hands, to end at $4.37, Lasco Manufacturing shed 12 cents and closed at $5.08 in trading 2,114,373 shares. Main Event ended trading of 106,775 shares at $6.50, Medical Disposables jumped 85 cents and ended at $6 with 12,393 units trading, Paramount Trading ended with 988 shares changed hands at $3.10, tTech had 126,334 units changing hands at $7.50 and Eppley 10% preference share, ended with 22,000 units changing hands at $6.60 after rising 10 cents.

Juniors slip but Knutsford at new high

Knutsford Express traded at a new high of $15 on Wednesday after the 5 for 11 stock split took effect.

The Junior Market index declined moderately on Wednesday but after Knutsford Express hit a new all-time high of $15 after the stock started trading ex split with investors now having 5 units where they had 1 before.
The market index slipped 12.77 points to close at 3,331.90 to be up 28.5 percent for 2017 to date. A total of 20 securities traded of which 7 advanced and only 4 declined as 1,267,600 units valued $7,528,786 traded compared to 22 securities trading on Tuesday with 2,377,774 units valued $14,077,973 changing hands.
At the close of trading, 8 stocks having bids higher than their last sale prices and 3 with lower offers.
The Junior Market ended trading with an average of 63,380 units for an average value of $376,439 compared to 108,081 units for an average value of $639,908, on the previous trading day. The average volume and value for the month to date are 89,339 units and $596,722 while at the close of the prior trading day it was 90,467 units and $607,211, well below the levels for April with averages of 502,597 units and $2,768,003.
At the close of the market, AMG Packaging fell 44 cents and ended at $4.55 with 2,111 units changing hands, Blue Power closed at $53.50 with 1,330 units changing hands, after climbing $1.50, CAC 2000 lost 80 cents and closed at $7.20 with 3,000 shares trading, Caribbean Cream closed trading with 413,469 units to end at $7.50, after dropping 90 cents, Caribbean Flavours ended trading 1,355 units to end at $12, Caribbean Producers rose 29 cents with 100,407 units changing hands at $3.79, Consolidated Bakeries rose 30 cents trading 6,000 shares to close at $2.75, Eppley had 69,369 units changing hands to close of $12, General Accident closed trading with 19,600 shares to end at $2.90, Honey Bun had just 260 shares changing hands and closed at $6.93 after falling 57 cents, Iron Rock Insurance gained 5 cents in trading 61,538 shares to end at $3.20, Jamaican Teas dropped 69 cents and closed trading with 50,567 shares, at $4. Jetcon Corporation climbed $1.30 to end at $14.80 with 44,161 shares trading, Knutsford Express started trading for the first time after the 5 for 1 stock split and closed with 5,262 shares trading at $15 with a gain of $1.40. Lasco Distributors rose 24 cents and ended with 1,150 units trading at $7.20, Lasco Manufacturing closed at $5.20 in trading 81,983 shares. Main Event fell 70 cents and ended trading of 42,690 shares at $6.50, Medical Disposables dropped 65 cents after posting earnings of 38 cents per share compared to 37 cents in 2016 and ended at $5.15 with 24,215 units trading, Paramount Trading ended with a fall of 20 cents as 344,936 shares changed hands at $3.10 and tTech had 3,665 units changing hands at $7.50.

JSE majors jump again on Wednesday

The main indices of the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange surged again on Wednesday pushing them within striking distance from the record high reached recently. At the close 27 securities changed hands in the main market with 3 trading in the US dollar market with 9 stocks advancing and 6 declining.
Trading levels in the main market ended at 1,782,575 units valued at $37,905,161 compared to 7,796,244 units valued at $62,297,173 at the close on Tuesday. Trading in the US dollar market accounted for 37,630 units valued at US$13,624.
The All Jamaica Composite Index advanced 2,152.18 points to close at 262,458.74, the JSE Market Index rose 1,960.88 points to finish at 239,129.62 and the JSE US dollar market index gained 9.71 points to close at 215.66.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 6 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and none with lower offers.
The main market ended trading with an average of 66,021 units valued at $1,403,895 for each security traded, compared to an average of 311,850 units valued at $2,491,887 on Tuesday. The average volume and value for the month to date ended at 358,008 units with an average value of $9,037,303 compared with an average of 371,912 units with an average value of $7,355,047 on the previous trading day. The average volume and value for April ended at 382,748 units with an average value of $5,254,387In market activity, Barita Investments closed at $7.20 trading 809 shares,Berger Paints gained 2 cents to close at $18.54 exchanging 1,118 shares, Cable and Wireless closed at $1.34, with trades of 111,000 shares, Caribbean Cement traded 1,879 shares at $29.99. Carreras lost $1 and closed at $83, with 16,045 shares changing hands, Grace Kennedy gained 10 cents to close at $41 trading 72,235 units, Jamaica Broilers exchanged 80,541 shares at $18, Jamaica Producers traded $1.39 cents higher to close at $16.99, with 36,431 shares trading, Jamaica Stock Exchange closed at $7.20, with 7,880 shares changing ownership. JMMB Group advanced $1.15 to $20 exchanging 1,028,499 units, Kingston Wharves lost 40 cents to close at $31.60, with 11,066 shares traded, Mayberry Investments exchanged 10,695 shares at $4.80, with a loss of 70 cents. NCB Financial Group closed at $71, with gains of 40 cents after exchanging 29,295 shares, 1834 Investments traded 3,304 shares at $1.40,138 Student Living exchanged 3,772 shares at $4.49. PanJam Investment closed at $34.90, after a loss of 10 cents with 41,600 shares traded, Portland JSX exchanged 600 shares at $10.15, Pulse Investments traded 15,460 shares at $14.50, Radio Jamaica closed at $1.70, while 44,844 shares traded, Sagicor Group exchanged 36,564 shares at $34, Sagicor Real Estate fund closed at $11, with 14,795 units changing hands. Scotia Group jumped $2.50 and closed at $45, in exchanging 93,110 units, Scotia Investments gained $1.35 to close at $37.85 trading 600 shares, Seprod exchanged 15,669 shares at $30, Supreme Ventures added 25 cents to close at $7.50 trading 93,457 shares. Margaritaville Turks closed at 34 US cents exchanging 730 units, Proven Investments traded at 28.50 US cents, with an exchange of 33,500 ordinary shares, JMMB 7.5% preference share lost 18 cents to close at $1.82 trading 8,507 units and JMMB Group USD 6% preference share gained 0.01 US cent, closing at $1.13 with 3,400 units changing hands.

Trading sinks in Jamaican stocks – Monday

Trading in the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed on Monday with main indices rising as 24 securities changed hands and with 2 trading in the US dollar market. At the close, 8 stocks advanced and 6 declined with very low level of trading.
Trading in the main market ended at 836,055 units valued at $14,784,987 compared to 4,417,748 units valued at $73,092,399 at the close on Friday. Trading in the US dollar market accounted for 6,430 units valued at US$6,926.
The All Jamaica Composite Index advanced 922.05 points to close at 258,211.03, the JSE Market Index rose 840.09 points to finish at 235,259.48 and the JSE US dollar market index closed unchanged at 215.59.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and US dollar markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 9 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 2 with lower offers.
The main market ended trading with an average of 34,836 units valued at $616,041 per security traded, compared to an average of 152,336 units valued at $2,520,428 on Tuesday. The average volume and value for the month to date ended at 374,915 units with an average value of $5,236,889 compared with an average of 392,814 units with an average value of $5,480,092 on the previous trading day. The average volume and value for April ended at 382,748 units with an average value of $5,254,387.
In market activity, Berger Paints closed at $20, gaining $1 while exchanging 49,814 shares, Cable and Wireless closed at $1.30, with 268,988 shares changing hands, Caribbean Cement traded 25 cents lower to close at $28 with 17,316 shares. Carreras closed at $80, with 10,397 shares changing hands and closed with the bid at $81, Grace Kennedy closed at $41 trading 49,831 units, Jamaica Broilers traded 23,833 shares at $18, Jamaica Producers gained 1 cent to close at $16.01, with trades of 22,355 shares, Jamaica Stock Exchange closed at $7.30, with gains of 30 cents while trading 1,602 shares. JMMB Group lost 20 cents to close at $19.80 with 20,100 units, Kingston Wharves gained $1.50 to close at $32, with 7,444 units trading, Mayberry Investments traded 40,050 shares at $4.90, with a loss of 40 cents. NCB Financial Group closed at $71 after gaining 1 cent in exchanging 61,352 shares, 1834 Investments closed at $1.40, with 25,232 shares changing owners, 138 Student Living exchanged 43,375 shares at $4.49, PanJam Investment closed at $35.50, losing 12 cents trading 65,096 shares. Pulse Investments traded 10,614 shares at $14.50, Radio Jamaica gained 5 cents to close at $1.70, with trades of 18,582 shares, Sagicor Group added 48 cents to close at $33.50 exchanging 14,500 shares, Sagicor Real Estate Fund lost 20 cents, closing at $10.60, with 9,981 units changing hands. Salada Foods closed at $8.50 trading 4,000 shares, Scotia Group closed at $42, with an exchange of 1,700 units, Sterling Investments closed at $15.50 trading 30,000 shares, Supreme Ventures lost 24 cents to close at $7.25 exchanging 10,893 shares. Proven Investments 8.25% preference share traded 29,000 units and rose 79 cents to $6, Proven Investments ordinary shares closed at 29 US cents, with 330 shares and JMMB Group USD 6% preference share gained 0.01 US cent to close at US$1.12, with 6,100 units changing hands.

Lower trading clips Juniors on Monday

Junior Market stocks closed lower on Monday.

The Junior Market closed down on Monday, with the index slipping 9.31 points compared to a dive of 71.37 points on Friday and ended at 3,284.26 with 19 securities trading, compared to 22 on Friday with reduced volume and value of stocks trading.
At the close of trading, 6 stocks advanced and 7 declined with 903,666 units valued at $5,900,159 changed hands, compared to 2,514,401 units valued at $21,351,143 on Friday. Trading ended with 7 stocks having bids higher than their last sale prices and 4 with lower offers.
The Junior Market ended trading with an average of 47,561 units for an average value of $310,535 compared to 114,291 units for an average value of $970,507, on the previous trading day. The average volume and value for the month to date are 89,667 units and $605,576 while at the close of the prior trading day it was 91,672 units and $621,105, well below the levels for April with averages of 502,597 units and $2,768,003.
At the close of the market, Access Financial climbed $2 and closed at $44 with 7,950 units changing hands, Blue Power ended at $52 with 1,097 units changing hands, CAC 2000 traded only 269 shares to close with a rise of 30 cents at $8, Caribbean Cream closed trading with 8,370 units to end at $8, after falling 40 cents, Caribbean Producers had 119,253 units changing hands, compared more than 3 million units each on Wednesday and Thursday, the price remained at $3.50 at the close, Consolidated Bakeries dropped 48 cents trading 107,952 shares to close at $2.52, strong> Derrimon Trading ended at $8.75 with 12,000 shares changing hands, Eppley had 51,213 units changing hands to close of $12, General Accident fell 10 cents and closed trading with 27,562 shares to end at $2.90 after attempts were made to trade the stock at $1.48 as demand thinned out, the trade was cancelled after the market closed. ISP Finance ended back at $28 with 450 units changing hands, after rising $1.50. Jamaican Teas rose 13 cents and closed trading with 8,000 shares, at $4.65. Jetcon Corporation ended at $14.90 with 30,149 shares trading, Knutsford Express fell $2 and closed with 9,938 shares trading at $68. Lasco Distributors added 5 cents and ended with 90,745 units trading at $7.10, Lasco Financial gained 5 cents to end with 2,881 shares changing hands at $4.05, Lasco Manufacturing lost 20 cents to close at $5 while trading 68,897 shares, Main Event lost 80 cents and ended trading of 48,063 shares at $7.20, Paramount Trading ended with a fall of 25 cents as 200,000 shares changed hands at $2.80 and tTech had 108,877 units changing hands at $7.50.

The Exuberant 10

The JSE stock traded at an outlandish $13.50 & dropped 47% since.

It is not nice to watch one’s investment lose value while others grow delivering big gains at the same time. Many investors plunge into investments that will result in just that happening, as they err and refuse to let go and reinvest, to recover their loss, from gains elsewhere.
A look back at prices in 2005, reveals shocking results of costly ill-timed investments. In June 2005, investors in a bout of excess exuberance, pushed Mayberry Investments to $8.40 from a listed price of $5.05, weeks after it listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, 12 years later it is still to reach back to that level. That is a huge blow to investors who held on to the shares from then.
The sad thing is that many investors who wanted to sell could not, as attempts were made to control the price from a big drop as selling started to overwhelm buying a few days after nearly 40 million shares were traded around the $7-8 level. Mayberry is an outstanding example of investors making huge errors based on inadequate information and paying dearly for it.
But Mayberry’s stock is not the only one that investors underwent a long period of suffering from, they have a number of top notch companies as their friends that that performed poorly until fairly recently. Scotia Group was pushed to $33.50 in March 2005 based on results that were not sustainable as the bank benefited by a poor decision of the Central Bank to push interest rates on CDS paying interest at elevated levels for about two to three years. The banks of course made a killing when rates fell back. Added to that, Scotia effected a stock split that sent the stock flying. Well it was not until late 2016 that the price exceeded the 2005 high. JMMB Group’s shareholders saw the price of the stock peaking at $22 in April 2004 only to see it fall away and not getting back to that level until recently this year. That is not great for a stock that is not a great dividend payer.
Grace Kennedy hit a high of $123 (Now $41 after stock split in 2016), in January 2005, it has taken nearly 12 years to recover the loss and it has still not delivered much more in gains since its full recovery.
Markets tend to repeat past behaviors, over and over but sometimes they take a break from the norm. PE ratios are the end product of investors’ perception of values for stocks. There are other measures but the PE is the most widely used. When PEs are pushed well beyond where the majority of investors thing the value ought to be, they induce added buying or selling. Investors who buy when the market has pushed valuation well above what is considered the norm, usually pay a steep price for so doing. The 2005 examples are cases in point. An accepted concept is that the PE ratio should be line with profit growth. One year’s growth cannot be used by itself but investors have to try and determine that themselves.
Most of the stocks in the IC Insider’s Exuberant 10, were pushed in 2017 by excessive enthusiasm and in some cases wrong information. Stock splits helped to fuel some of the excess as well. The attached table shows the stocks that were pushed well above their appropriate values and the levels of correction since. Some may fall even more than their latest price as they can be considered overvalued based on known earnings for the current period. A few that are not on the list could see a decent fall as well, included in this latter list are Knutsford Express and Kingston Properties.