Remittance inflows into Jamaica, this year, continue to grow, with an increase of US$50 million or 5.6 percent in net remittances for the six months to June, over the same period in 2013, to reach US$949 million, according to information released by the country’s central bank.
“Total remittance inflows were US$1.06 billion, an increase of US$35 million while outflows declined compared with the 2013 period,” the Bank of Jamaica report states. Net remittances for June 2014, were US$154 million, an increase of US$8 million or 5.4 percent over the corresponding period of 2013, resulting from an increase in gross remittance inflows and a contraction in outflows. Gross remittance inflows for the month were US$168 million, an increase of US$2.3 million or just 1.4 percent relative to the corresponding month of 2013.
For June, total Remittance Outflows amounted to $15 million a reduction from the $20 million in June 2013 and for the six months, $106 million and $121 million in 2013.
NIR up in September
Bank of Jamaica paid back US$30 million to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during September, but the Net International Reserves (NIR) climbed from US$2.12 billion at the end of August to US$2.2 billion at the end of September, an increase of US$79 million.
Gross reserves amounts to $2.72 billion compared with $2.67 billion at the end of August.Estimated Official Gross Reserves represent 27.17 weeks of Goods Imports at the end of September, up from 26.68 weeks, in August and 19.52 weeks of Goods and Services Imports, an increase over the 19.17 weeks in August.
The reserves place the central bank in a good position to intervene in the foreign exchange market during the rest of the year, if they so desire. Importantly, it gives them the physiological advantage to keep speculators guessing as to their next move, now that the rate of the Jamaican dollar has been gaining, against the US dollar, since they had a major intervention, in the market on July 10.
Interestingly, the months of high demand and low supply commencing September, should end by Mid December has so far seen no serious dip in supply and no large demands, allowing the local dollar to appreciate. There are some indications that financial institutions who went long in their holdings of foreign exchange, have been offloading, with the absence of any serious overhang of demand that cannot be satisfied.
It does appear that the central bank will be adding to its holdings of foreign currency, as investors reduce their holdings, with the winter months not far away, a period when supply is usually higher than demand.
GOJ tax revenue continues to lag
Government of Jamaica’s tax revenues for August, fell below target, resulting in a shortfall of $2.56 billion at the end of July, climbing to $5.9 billion at the end of August. Payments were also less than planned, with underspending of $7.69 billion at the end of July, climbing to $10.26 billion to August.
The fiscal deficit came in at $27.2 billion versus a budgeted $31.6 billion, $4.4 billion over projection. At the end of July, the deficit was $18 billion or $5 billion ahead of plan.
Revenue shortfall was experienced in Company tax collection, $2.2 billion lower than the $8.8 billion forecast and is slightly worse than the $1.9 billion shortage to July. Tax on interest which was ahead at $1.6 billion is now up by $1.9 billion. Local GCT fell short, $3.5 billion to August, worse than the $1.6 billion shortfall to July. GCT and SCT on imports fell short 900 million at the end of July and $1.2 at the end of August with SCT on target to August, up a bit from the $445 million shortfall at the end of July.
Spending on capital, budgeted at $14.8 billion has had only $9.5 billion spent so far in 2014.
Jamaica’s business confidence drops
Perception of present and future conditions is down in the business sector, according to data of a survey, released by Bank of Jamaica. The survey which was done in August showed a deterioration compared to June.
In the recent survey, there was a marked moderation in both the perception of present and future business conditions among respondents relative to the previous survey. The indices showed current business conditions at 110.2 versus June’s 121.1 and 102.5 in May. The perception of future business conditions as measured by the index declined to 119.4, from 129.9 in June. The level is still ahead of the May 2014 outturn, of 117.9.
The perceptions of present and future business conditions, continue to show a general upward trend since the low of 47.5 percent in April 2013 survey, for current business condition and 93.4 for future business conditions. The indices peaked at 157.9 in December 2011 for current business conditions and 148.8 in March 2013 for future business conditions.
Jamaica’s Economy grows 1.8% in Q2
Agriculture was the star performer in Jamaica’s growth in the second quarter
The Statin report goes on to state, this performance reflects an improvement of 6.3 percent in the Goods Producing industries and a 0.5 percent increase in the Services industries.In the June quarter, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing grew 16.6 percent, Manufacture 4.1 percent and Construction 1.2 percent. Mining & Quarrying industry declined by 0.4 percent.
Manufacture benefited from a 111.9 percent increase in the production of sugar and a 26.1 percent growth in petroleum refining. Higher output levels in Construction resulted mainly from an increase in expenditure on road work activities, including the continued work on the North-South leg of Highway 2000. Lower production levels in the Mining &Quarrying industry was due to a fall in alumina production, resulting from the stoppage of activities at one of the alumina refining plant. However, crude bauxite production increased by 13.3 percent.
Increased output was recorded for all industries within the Services industries with the exception of the Producers of Government Services, down 0.2 percent and Electricity & Water Supply, down 1.6 percent. Higher output levels were recorded for; Hotels & Restaurants 2.3 percent, Other Services 1.1 percent, Transport, Storage & Communication 1 percent, Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities 0.6 percent. The sharp jump in sugar production in the second which is not in line with increased production with the overall 2014 sugar crop, meant that growth in the first quarter would have been negatively affected by a late take off of the cane crop in 2014 which benefited the second quarter.
Trade deficit improvement loses steam in June
Jamaica’s trade deficit declined marginally during the first six months of 2014 ending at US$2.18 billion, compared to US$2.19 billion in the 2013 period, a decline of 0.3 percent, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reported, today.
For the period up to May the trade deficit was US$125 million. Trade balance in June effectively wiped out the small positive gains to May.
For the six months period Jamaica imported goods valued at US$2.9 billion, a decrease of US$133 million or 4.4 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Total exports for the six months to June 2014, fell by US$125 million to US$729 million, down from US$854 million in the 2013 period.
The decline in imports was due mainly to a reduction in Mineral Fuels, Chemicals, Beverages & Tobacco, Animal & Vegetable Oils Fats.Imports of “Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods” decreased during the 2014 review period, and were valued at US$1.77 billion, compared to US$1.97 billion in the 2013 period, a 9.8 percent decrease.
Crude Oil imports amounted to US$413 million, moving down from US$451 million in the similar period of 2013, a decrease of 8.4 percent. Imports of Capital Goods (Excl. Motor Cars) increase from US$243 million in the 2013 period to US$264 million in the current year to June.
T-bills chased in September, push down rate
Government of Jamaica Treasury bill sample
Investors are clearly seeing a continuing trend of lower rates into the future, and moved their focus to the longer end of the Treasury bill spectrum and less so on the shorter term ones. The offer of 182 days duration, matures on March 20 next year, will generate an average interest rate yield of 7.99887 percent, down from 8.11578 percent in August, 8.21982 percent at the July’s auction and 8.36502 percent for the June issue, of the same duration. At the May Treasury bill auction, the rate came out at 8.932 percent.
The Treasury bill for the period Friday, September 19, maturing on Friday, December 19 this year, for the duration of 91 days, attracted bids of $641,904,600 (August $639,068,500 and July $732,981,900) for the $400,000,000 on offer. The average yield came out at 7.46952 percent, slightly up on the 7.46767 percent average rate out turn in August. The rate for the June issue was 7.65893 percent and 8.2 percent in May, for the Treasury bill of same duration.
Jamaica’s inflation up 5% year to August
The inflation rate for Jamaica based on Consumer Price Index was 1.1 percent In August 2014 which is better that the 1.4 percent out turn in July and for the year to August is 5 percent.
This inflation rate for the month was chiefly the result of a 2.7 percent upward movement in the index for the division of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages.” The index for the group ‘Food’ increased by 2.8 per cent as production levels of some agricultural crops declined due to the continued drought conditions across the island, This resulted in higher prices for the classes ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ and ‘Fruit’ which rose by 9.8 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively,” Statin Said in their release on the inflation data.
Jamaica’s remittances upward climb
Jamaica net remittances for May this year, grew US$10 million or 6 percent, to US$172 million, versus May 2013. The increase resulted from gross inflows growing by US$7 million to US$189 million, and a contraction in outflows.
Remittance Companies accounted for an increases of US$13 million in inflows, while Other Remittances saw a reduction of US$5.5 million, Bank of Jamaica stated in their report on remittances.
Net remittances for the year to May, amounts to US$795 million, representing growth of US$42 million or 5.6 percent, compared to 2013 period. The outturn for the review period, reflected an increase in gross inflows, and a reduction in outflows. For the period total remittance inflows were US$887 million, representing an increase of US$33 million or 3.8 percent.
NIR slips with IMF pay back
Bank of Jamaica paid back US$83.75 million to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during August, helping to reduce the Net International Reserves (NIR) from US$2.18 billion down to US$2.12 billion at the end of August.
Estimated Official Gross Reserves represent 26.68 weeks of Goods Imports at the end of August down from 28.12 weeks in July and 19.17 weeks of Goods and Servics Imports, a decline form 20.21 weeks in July.
The reserves place the central bank in a good position to intervene in the Foreign exchange market, during the rest of the year if they so desire. Importantly, it gives them the physiological advantage, to keep speculators guessing as to their next move, now that the rate of the Jamaican dollar has been holding steady, against the US dollar, since they made a major intervention into the market, on July 10.
The months of high demand and low supply is here, with the commencement of September, and should end by Mid December. Whatever, the level of intervention is, it should be relatively small, ahead of the winters months, when supply tends to be greater than demand.