Carib Cement bad news say buy
Jamaica’s sole cement manufacturing company Caribbean Cement, reported a fall in profit from $621 million in the June quarter of 2015 down to only $221 million and for the six months to June $1.05 billion versus $869 million.
Investors seemed to have focused more on the fall in the quarter than on the details of the results and the clear message sent by them. As a result, the stock was sold down to $19.25 from $23 the prior day, with very few buyers at the close, but investors who sold were making a bad decision. This is a classic case of bad news is indeed good news. For one, revenues climbed 9.6 percent in the quarter and 10.3 percent for the half-year but local sales of cement are up a very strong 27 percent. “Despite a reduction in export cement and clinker volumes by 8 percent and 77 percent respectively, total revenue increased by $777 million. This was mainly due to an increase in domestic cement volumes by 27 percent arising from increased projects and strong retail demand. Improvements in operational efficiencies, effective control of fixed costs, lower financing costs and lower energy costs, contributed to the improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, manpower restructuring costs,” the directors’ report to shareholders stated.
Importantly, the cement company took a charge for manpower restructuring, amounting to $421 million, a huge positive development and augurs well for improved profit margin and increased profits going forward. In addition there is a charge for excess inventory amounting to $400 million, this is one off and therefore unlikely to recur. Stripped of these costs, earnings would be up by 63 percent to $1.16 million before tax compared to $708 million in 2015 that includes one off income of $168 million for the quarter and pretax profit of $2.1 billion versus $996 million in 2015.
Not only will the cost for redundancy not recur for the current set of staff being severed, it should results in savings in a year, in the region of the sum expended.
During the twelve months to June, the company repaid Trinidad Cement, its parent, loans and other debt $1.6 billion leaving only $556 million more to be paid. Cash funds were left at $788 million after more than $600 million was added to fixed assets since June 2015. At the pace profits are coming in the accumulated deficit of $4.6 billion will be wiped out in 2017.
IC Insider’s forecast for full years earning form normal operations is $4.75 which excludes the one off cost leaving the stock strongly in the buy column. The stock is listed on the main market of the Jamaica Stock exchange and closed at $22 on Friday.
Profit jumps 81% for Kremi
Profit jump 81 percent to $71 million for Caribbean Cream in its latest quarter to May this year, the company reported, from a rise of 9 percent in sales to $316 million resulting in earnings per share of 19 cents.
Gross profit climbed faster than revenues by 24 percent to $138 million as production cost dipped slightly to $177.5 million from $178.4 in 2015, as the company continues to benefit from lower prices of sugar and milk based major production ingredients and from energy savings.
Administration cost declined by $2 million to $54.3 million while selling and distribution cost came in at $10.8 million from $11 million in 2015 and finance costs fell to $3 million from $4.6 million as the amount of loan funding declined from $140 million to $120 million, Gross cash flow amounted to $85 million up from $53 million in 2015. Having funded loan repayment and acquisition of fixed assets, the cash inflows helped push cash at the end of 2016 quarter to $194 million, from $50.75 million at the end of May 2015. Shareholders’ equity climbed to $509 million at the end of the quarter.
The company has declared an interim dividend of 5 cents per share or $19 million payable in September. The stock traded at $5.50 but should head higher with earnings projected by IC Insider at $1 per share for the full year.
Dolphin Cove Buy Rated again
Dolphin Cove now placed on the IC Insider’s Buy Rated list. The company is projected by IC Insider to earn $1.50 per share for 2016 after tax or 44 percent up on the earnings per share for of $1.04 for 2015. If the company achieves the above earnings the PE ratio would be 7.5 times 2016 estimated earnings, versus 8 for the average of the junior market.
As the year roles on the price is likely to increase, based on valuation of 14 times 2015 earnings, placed on the junior market, suggesting the possibility of the price doubling within a year. In addition the company pays regular dividends and this will add to returns investors will get from this stock.
First quarter results to March hit a profit after tax of $185 million for a strong increase of 39 percent above the corresponding period in 2015. The improved profit came from an increase of 11 percent in revenues to $520 million, due primarily to a 35 percent growth in ancillary revenue. Gross profit increased by 14 percent as a result of the growth in revenue and a decline in direct cost of sales while increase in operating expenses was up 5 percent over the 2015 cost to reach $297 million. There was new operating and administrative costs which the directors’ state contributed to the improved service delivery.
The company ended with cash and investments of $385 million, borrowings of $210 million and equity of $2.9 billion.
The stock last traded on the junior market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at $11.10, but has a bid to buy at $11.25, with offers starting at $12.
Buy Rated stocks set for growth
In Trinidad, the market drifted from a peak in the all T&T index at 1,956.55 on December 8, 2015 to a 2016 low of 1,758.40 on May 19. The movements the Jamaica’s junior market saw the index peaking at 2,357.20 on 12th of January and bottomed out on the 7th of April at 1,762.87 points, for a decline of 24.5 percent but have since recovered most of the decline.
Much have happened with companies releasing results since with a number of the results in Trinidad being flat to declining, while most in Jamaica show good increased profit, while interest rates have declined in Jamaica and been static in Trinidad. Added to the profit out turn, a few companies in Jamaica announced stocks splits which have driven the respective prices of all the companies up strongly. Grace Kennedy, one of IC Insider Buy Rated stocks that has been lagging in performance, came to life as the company reported strong increase in the March quarter results, with the price jumping to $115 and seems to have more room to grow, based on the improved results. Pan Jamaican Investment gained 42.5 percent since it was last reported on at the end of April, helped by a 5 for 1 stock split and is up 82 percent since selected to the BUY RATED list. The company has good long term growth prospect but may have plateaued at the current price, around $26.50. The stock has been moved to a watch from BUY RATED.
Honey Bun added to the BUY RATED list in November 2015, gained 112 percent since April and 387 percent since being added to the list. Strong growth in profits and a 5 for 1 stock split helped in moving the value of the stock. ISP Finance added in April, is up 20 percent but there is little supply to be obtained, a recipe for a strong rally in the price ahead. Knutsford Express was put on hold when last reported on and has slipped 20.5 percent, is now restored to a buy below $20 while Lasco Distributors placed on a Watch list last time, is up 52.6 percent and is now placed on watch list at current price at $7.60, supply seems to be drying up for this stock, following release of full year’s results. While investors have priced in a potential big inflows from their law suit claim with Pfizer, at a PE ratio around 20 times fiscal 2017 operating profit, investing at the levels could result in an investment that may underperform the market in the medium term.
Cable & Wireless is up 22.5 percent since April and 332 percent since it debuted on the list in February 2014. The company reported a small profit from operation, for this year to March, and seems headed for earnings around 20 cents per share for 2017. The price should be heading higher before too long, but demand is not electric currently.
General Accident and Honey Bun are placed on the watch list with the former unable to get profit to rise outside the range of 30 cents per share and the latter now being priced at a PE of 18, well ahead of the average for the junior market. Honey Bun supply notwithstanding the 5 for 1 stock split, is scarce but profit growth could continue to be strong thus lending support to the stock going forward.
Companies in Trinidad are not doing well but their performance is not disastrous in the main with the price of a number of stocks have pulled back sharply and will offer good entry points when it is time to buy into that market. The time may not be right to enter that recession affected market just yet. Technical reading of this market shows it peaking at 2,032 points and have lost 13.5 percent since then and could fall another 9 percent from the May 2016 levels to reach 1,600 points before the decline is over. A look at the trading report shows that the prices of some major companies remain under pressure and is likely to fall as demand remains weak.
Technical and fundamental assessments suggest that Access Financial, Caribbean Cream, Medical Disposables and National Commercial Bank are due for a break out sooner than later, with Caribbean Cement to follow.
Flour pressed into more profit
Profit after tax grew to TT$9.2 million up marginally from $9 million for the March quarter, this year at Trinidad’s National Flour Mills, from declining revenues of $111.2 million compared with $121.5 million in the 2015 quarter.
The company enjoyed earnings per share of 8 cents, compared with 7 cents in the 2015 quarter and 28 cents for the full year, in 2015 and could end up around 32 cents for the 2016 if the current trend continues.
The lower revenues “reflect the contraction in demand locally, and some timing differences with respect to large export orders which the company now pursues vigorously. Cost containment measures continue to provide the cash cushion to execute planned capital projects. Thus, growth in the regional export markets and more local content are priority strategies to improve both our sales revenues and foreign currency position” says Chairman Mike Bazle in his commentary accompanying the company’s quarterly results.
“It is thus important to note that the current economic environment continues to challenge the Company, particularly with respect to the timely supply of foreign exchange which is central to the financing of NFM’s grain purchases. When taken together with the cost implications of declining TT currency values, the company’s intention is to manage these additional costs, as key priorities, in order to ameliorate the impact on our customers,” the Chairman went on to say.
Despite the falling revenue, gross profit rose from $29.8 million to $31 million while Selling and distribution expenses were static at $7.8 million and Administrative expense declined to $10.74 million from $11.85 million.
Borrowing funds jumped to $122.78 million from $94 million compared to shareholders equity of $204 million.
The company is listed on the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange and last traded at $2.20, with a PE around 7 times this year’s earnings and is priced below the average stock on the TTSE market. With recession and devaluation of the Trinidad currency investors are not aggressive in picking up stocks.
JSE first quarter results jump
Jamaica Stock Exchange reported a 44 percent jump in the first quarter profit to $126 million, from $87 million in 2015 for the three months ending March. The growth in profit flowed from revenues of $327 million, a 29 percent increase over the $253 million in 2015. The increase this year comes against the background that the quarter in 2015 results came from a loss position of $2.3 million.
Earnings per share ended at 89 cents in 2016 versus 62 cents in 2015. Profit before tax, grew from $130 million in 2015 to $187 million, with tax taking $61 million in the 2016 first quarter from $43 million.
Revenues growth benefited from increased trading activities this year over 2015, new business from the handling of repo business and from a big trade in the shares of Desnoes and Geddes, in 2015 there was a large trade in the shares of Scotia Group.
Expenses climbed at a slower pace than income, with an increase of 16 percent to end at $150 million. Wages climbed from $46 million to $57 million due to salary increases and additional staffing. Advertising and amortization is up from $14 million to $20.7 million, while other operating cost rose by $10.6 million from $5 million.
At the end of the quarter, cash and equivalent stood at $589 million and equity capital climbed to $751 million up from $649 million at the end of March 2015.
JSE’s stock traded on the Jamaica Stock Exchange with the price closing at $21 on Thursday.