Polling in Jamaica has gone from an exercise that a vast number of Jamaicans found to be incredible, questioning how a small sample of just 1,000 persons could be used to predict pretty accurately, the views of an entire population? Based on the accuracy over the years in forecasting election results, the vast majority, seem to have put their faith in them.
But when it comes to politics emotions run deep and there are mood swings as well. Take the polls since late 2014, the Don Anderson polls showed the following results:
The most recent poll show the PNP at 27.5% and the JLP at 23.2%, effectively the polls show that both parties lost active support since September last year. The PNP lost 2 percentage points and the JLP a much larger 6.4 percentage points, taking the latter below the core position held from 2014 to June of 25%. If the latest polls number were to hold come election day, the PNP would end up with about 54% to 46% for the JLP of the votes, on a head to head race which would put the PNP slightly ahead of the 2011 when they took 53.40% of the votes to the JLP 46.60%.
What is rather interesting is that RJR carried on their website a story of a recent canvass done buy the PNP in which Paul Burke says they are sure to win 32 seats, with 10 of the rest they have in doubt.
“RJR News has obtained a copy of the report which outlines that the Party is sure of winning 32 of the 63 Parliamentary seats. Of the remaining 10 seats from the 42 which were won by the PNP in 2011, two are deemed at risk of being lost and eight have been declared hard to win”. This information does not reflect an outcome as indicated by Anderson polls.
Analysis of the stock market show that it is a good indicator a year out from elections, for the party likely to win, in this case the market is suggesting the PNP. The recent polls are not convincingly showing that.
History is a useful guide. There is a tendency for polls to pick up incumbency support and less of opposition support. Carl Stone in an article written in 1981 stated that his polls prior to the 1980 election showed the JLP with 56% of the votes which was 3% points lower than the outcome of 59% of the votes cast that the JLP got compared to 41 % PNP. More importantly, a poll done in the summer months showed the polls narrowing from around 54% for the JLP to about 51% with the PNP seeming to have momentum with 49%. The situation between the two polls was fairly similar to late 2015 onwards where activity by one party seemed to have been more low-keyed, than the other.
A poll released by Anderson in early Oct 2002 showed the PNP with support amongst 54.4% of voters and the JLP with 45.3% but the outcome was PNP 51.5% and the JLP 46.9% a 5% point bias towards the governing party. In the last polls before the election in 2002 had the PNP at 52.3% to the JLP’s 46.9% still a slight bias towards the PNP but only marginally so. Between June 2007 and late July the poll had an incumbency bias of 4.8 percent to a low of 2.68 percent, the polls prior to the actual election ended with only a 0.30 percent bias in favour of the labour party. In the 2011 elections all Anderson polls from May up to the elections had a bias of 1.7% or less in favour of the JLP who were then in government.
What is also of interest, is that the poll numbers showed that the PNP slipped to 17% in the Anderson polls in December 2014 and has made a major recovery since. The JLP had a low of 15.9 % back in May 2011 and recovered much of the lost ground in polls taken after.
The 2007 polls make for interesting reading as it is one of the times when a party trailing prior to the election actually end up winning. In February 2007 the PNP trailed the labour party by 1 percentage point at 26% to 27%, in April the PNP pulled ahead with 25% to 23% in May it was 25% each way, by June it showed the PNP with a 4 percentage points lead at 29% to 25%. A second poll in June, showed the PNP moving ahead with 30.70% and the JLP barely keeping up at 25.60%. July saw a change, with the gap closing, but with the PNP ahead with 32.8% and the JLP at 29.3 percent at the end of July the PNP garnered 38.8 percent of voters support and the JLP was at 35.3% and the last one in August placed the PNP at 40.3% and JLP with 41.3%.
Will the 2016 polls closer to the election date narrow? History seems to support that view but time will tell and by how much. What is also of interest will be the turnout of voters. In the 2011 elections, turnout was 52.76 percent, if that were to happen this time it would result in a total of 93,047 votes over the level in 2011, raising the total to 962,485. If the Anderson’s latest polls numbers are close to accurate, there would only be about 2 percentage more points that either party could pick up based on the above, but the latest voters list is 10.7 percent higher than the 2011 one with an additional 176,374 voters or 20 percent of persons who voted in 2011.