1% growth in 2015 for Jamaica

January 1, 2016 by

Manufacturing grew sharply

Manufacturing grew sharply

The Jamaican economy should record growth of about 1 percent for 2015 based on an increase of 1.5 percent in the September quarter last year over the similar quarter in 2014. The performance albeit small, would be an improvement over 2014 when the Jamaican economy eked out growth of 0.4 percent compared to the previous year.
In the first half of 2014, the Jamaican economy enjoyed growth 1.75 percent with negative growth in the latter half. Growth in 2015 will be the third year of increased output for the economy with very moderate growth for 2013 around 0.2 percent. Importantly, the latest data may be indicating that growth may be picking up pace and could be above 1.5 percent from now onwards, from very low levels, for the past three years.
Preliminary data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) shows the 2015 performance in the latest quarter contrasting with an increase of just 0.6 percent in the second quarter, over the similar quarter of 2014 in real terms. Statin had earlier in the year reported that the Jamaican economy grew by 0.4 percent in the first quarter compared to the similar quarter of 2014.
The 2015 September’s quarter performance “was due to 3.9 percent increase in the
Goods Producing industries and 0.7 percent in the Services industries. All industries within the Goods Producing industries recorded increased output except Mining & Quarrying which declined by 0.9 percent,” Statin stated.
FuelAgriculture, Forestry & Fishing grew by 4.2 percent, Manufacturing grew by 7.9 percent resulting from higher output levels in the Food, Beverages & Tobacco by 3.3 percent and Other Manufacturing 14.8 percent, due to an 82 percent increase in petroleum refining. This reflected a return to normal productive activity at the petroleum refinery during this quarter, as the plant was closed for operational maintenance in August and September 2014.
Construction increased by 0.7 percent, due mainly Statin said “to increased output from non-residential projects, which includes the continued expansion in hotels as activities in civil engineering works declined for the period”. Output from the Mining & quarrying industry was constrained by mechanical problems at one of the plants as well as the quality of bauxite mined, the report stated.
Improved performance in the Services industries resulted from increased output in all industries except the producers of Government services which declined by 0.1 percent. Increased value added was recorded for: Electricity & Water Supply up by 3.1 percent, Hotels & Restaurants 1.3 percent, Transport, Storage & Communication 1.5 percent, Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment 0.5 percent, Finance & Insurance Services 0.6 percent, Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities and Other Services 0.5 percent.
The Hotels & Restaurants industry continues to benefit from higher tourist arrivals from two of the main markets; the United States of America (USA) and Europe.

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Jamaica’s Unemployed down slightly in June

November 7, 2015 by

theGoodNewsJamaica’s unemployment rate for June 2015 saw an improvement over the similar period of 2014. According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), 13.1 percent of the labour force were out of work when their Labour Force Survey was carried out, a reduction from the 13.8 percent level in the 2014 period.
Over the period, “the unemployment rate for males declined from 9.9 percent to 9.3 percent and for females from a very high 18.4 percent to 17.7 percent”, STATIN stated.
The number of unemployed persons decreased by 6,300 or 3.5 percent, moving from 179,300 persons in June 2014 to 173,000 in June this year. A total of 1,147,500 persons were employed at the time of the survey, 23,200 more than the 1,124,300 in June 2014. The Labour Force increased by 16,800 or 1.3 percent over the 1,303,700 recorded in June 2014, to 1,320,500 in 2015.In June 2015, the number of persons who were classified as being Outside the Labour Force fell by 12,700 or1.6 percent to 765,400 from 778,100 in June 2014.
Employment_jobsThe Occupation group, Clerks, saw 9,400 more persons or 9.1 percent being employment, raising the numbers employed from 103,000 in June 2014 to 112,400 at the middle of this year. Increases in employment were also observed in Craft and Related Trades Workers with an increase of 3.4 percent from 136,200 persons in June 2014 to 140,900. Employment in the group, Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities increased by 14,400 persons or 22.4 percent while the group Hotels and Restaurants Services increased by 8.8 percent or 7,300 persons.

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Food prices push inflation in August

September 22, 2015 by

‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ had the strongest impact on the division moving up by 8.5%

‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ had the strongest impact on the division moving up by 8.5%

Sharp price movement in the prices for Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ had a major impact on inflation in August with an increase of 0.8 percent resulting in Inflation climbing 3.5 percent since August last year to August this year and by 2.2 percent, for 2015 to August, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported.
‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ recorded the highest movement for the month of 2.1 percent. ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ had the strongest impact on the division moving up by 8.5 percent as drought conditions persisted in the growing areas. The upward overall movement was, however, tempered by declines of 2.3 percent and 0.5 percent in the divisions ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ and ‘Transport’ due to lower petrol prices and reduction in air fares.
Other divisions that recorded increases are: ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.2 percent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.3 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.2 percent, ‘Health’ 0.1 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.4 percent, ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 1.3 percent, while ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ recorded a 0.2 percent increase. ‘Education’ and ‘Communication’ remained unchanged.

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Jamaica economy crawls slowly

August 26, 2015 by

BOJ 3Real GDP is assessed to have expanded within the range of 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent for the June 2015 quarter by Bank of Jamaica, Governor of the bank, Bryan Wynter, said today.
The bank said the estimated outturn for the review quarter, “mainly reflects continued expansion in Mining & Quarrying, Hotels & Restaurants, Transport, Storage & Communication, Construction and Wholesale & Retail Trade”. There were estimated declines in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing reflecting the impact of the intensification of dry conditions which started in the March 2015 quarter.
Given the anticipated impact of drought conditions, for FY2015/16 real GDP is forecasted to expand within the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent. This projection is contingent on recovery in the mining and manufacturing sectors, assuming there is no recurrence of the production disruptions which occurred in the previous fiscal year. In addition, the economy is projected to continue to benefit from improvements in the business environment, consumer and business confidence as well as continued gains in external competitiveness.

New units being built at Montego Freeport in Montego Bay this year.

New units being built at Montego Freeport in Montego Bay this year.

The Jamaican economy squeezed out a small increase of 0.4 percent in the March quarter over the similar quarter of 2014, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the official body tasked with the responsibility of collating such data. STATIN said then “growth was due mainly to a 0.6 percent increase in the Services industries” with all industries within the Services industries recording increased levels of output with the exception of Electricity & Water Supply and Producers of Government Services which fell by 2.8 percent and 0.1 percent respectively.

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Inflation jump in July

August 18, 2015 by

Cost of food jumped sharply in July

Cost of food jumped sharply in July

Prices increases of 2.2 percent in the division of ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’, Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ which moved up by 9.7 percent, ‘Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ an increase of 1 percent offset by declines in other areas, helped push inflation by 0.9 percent in July this year, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported.
Higher rates for electricity, water and sewage were items helping in the inflationary push but the division of ‘Transport’, recorded a decrease of 2.7 per cent, which tempered the upward movement of the overall index. This decline was due largely to 16.7 per cent decrease in adult bus fares for passengers in the Greater Kingston JUTC busMetropolitan Area taking Jamaica Urban Transit Company (JUTC) buses.
Inflation in a calendar year-to-date inflation rate of 1.4 per cent, while the rate since last year July is 3.8 percent. With the price of oil on the world market at US$42 per barrel and the announcement of reduction in electricity cost locally, will have a moderating effect on inflation going forward for a while.

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Jamaica’s Inflation flat May up 0.5%

June 17, 2015 by

inflationahead280x150Price increases in Jamaica since the start of this year is zero, measured by the All Jamaica Consumer Price Index but it increased by 0.5 percent for May over April this year, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica report shows.
Inflation since May last year is put at 4 percent and was helped by declines in the price of petroleum late in 2014, resulting in just 0.1 percent inflation in October and negative inflation from November to February.
The divisions contributing significantly to the upward movement in the index were Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages influenced by mainly by higher prices for vegetables and starchy foods increased with a 0.5 percent increase.

Increased fuel prices added to inflation in May

Increased fuel prices added to inflation in May

The category of Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels which rose by 2.1 percent helped push the overall inflation by rise in the index for the group by 0.9 percent and Transport by 0.8 percent mainly due to an increase in price of fuels.
Increased fuel prices added to inflation in May[/caption]Other divisions recording increases were: Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco 0.7 percent Clothing and Footwear 0.2 percent, Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance 0.2 percent, Health 0.2 percent, Recreation and Culture 0.1 percent, Restaurants and Accommodation Services 0.1 percent, Miscellaneous Goods and Services 0.3 percent.
Tempering the categories with increases was a fall of 1.7 percent in the index for the group Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling.

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Jamaica’s 2015 inflation remains tame

May 18, 2015 by

Price fallThe inflation rate, increased by a mere 0.2 percent in April 2015 while the year-to-date inflation rate for April 2015 is minus 0.5 percent, the point-to-point 4.4 percent.
Statin said the lower increase for April is due mainly to upward movements in the index for the divisions of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 0.5 percent, Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco 1.3 percent and Transport 1.1 percent. The fall in prices the group Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ which fell by 4.6 percent. This resulted mainly from lower fuel rates, as well as an appreciation of the Jamaican dollar.
The calendar The other divisions that recorded increases in the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ index were: ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.4 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.4 percent, ‘Health’ 0.2 percent, percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.3 percent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.2 percent, and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.3 percent.

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5 months of deflation for Jamaica

March 16, 2015 by

Price fallJamaica is enjoying a respite in upward price movements since October last year with the price of oil on the world market having collapsed from US$100 per barrel to hover around US$50. The country had a 0.1 percent inflation in October, but declined in each of the following months, with the latest data showing February 2015 with a 0.7 percent decline in the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ Consumer Price Index. This followed the fall of 0.5 percent in January. Year-to-date inflation to February 2015, is -1.1 percent and since November last year the decline is 2 percent.
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) indicated that the “main contributor to the decline, was a 3.6 percent decrease in the index for the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ resulting from lower rates for electricity and water. The reduction was tempered by an upward movement in the wages for carpenters, masons, plumbers, painters and electricians during the month. Also contributing to the decline was a 0.6 percent fall in ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’, the heaviest weighted division. All other divisions recorded movements of below 0.5 percent.”
Increase were experienced by certain categories with ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ increasing by 0.3 percent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.2 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.3 percent ‘Health’ 0.4 percent, ‘Transport’ 0.1 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.3 percent and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.2 percent. ‘Communication’, ‘Education’ and ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ recorded negligible movement for the period under review, Statin stated.

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Inflation drops again says Statin

February 16, 2015 by

PriceBalloons_KittisakFREEIMAGE280x150pxThe Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reports that the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ Consumer Price Index fell by 0.5 percent in January this year, the third consecutive monthly decline in the inflation rate for Jamaica. The inflation rate was 0.1 percent in October, November was negative 0.5 percent and December negative 0.3 percent. The downward movement in inflation for January was mainly attributable to a fall in the index for the three highest weighted divisions. The index ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ fell by 0.2 percent, followed by the division ‘Housing Water, Electricity,

Gas & other fuels fell 3.4% in january

Gas & other fuels fell 3.4% in january

Gas and Other Fuels’ falling by 3.4 percent and the ‘Transport’ division declining by 1.6 percent. Contributing to these decreases were lower prices for ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’, lower rates for water, sewage and electricity, as well as a fall in the international price of crude oil, which impacted the local price for petrol, Statin stated in their release on price movements for January on Monday.
The release went on to state that the divisions that recorded increases in the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ index were: ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.4 percent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.9 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.3 percent, ‘Health’ 0.1 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.1 percent, ‘and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.6 percent, while Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 2.5 percent, ‘Education’, and ‘Communication’ each remained unchanged.

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Jamaica’s economy barely delivering jobs

February 14, 2015 by

Image courtesy of koko-tewan/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Image courtesy of koko-tewan/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Jamaica unemployment rate eased in September, according to Data put out by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Satin) but remained at elevated levels at 14.2 percent compared to 14.9 percent in October 2013. The number of unemployed persons declined by 7,800 (4.0 percent) moving from 194,000 in October 2013 to 186,200 in October 2014.
The slow growth in the numbers on newly employed is a direct result of the low growth performance in the local economy as current government policy drives down demand for many goods and services in the country as government maintains the target of a balance fiscal operation.
Statin said the unemployment rate for males declined from 10.6 percent to 9.9 percent and for females from 20.0 percent to 19.4 percent.
EmploymentChairVacancy280x150“The number of persons in the Labour Force was 1,310,700, an increase of 6,200 (0.5 percent) above the 1,304,500 recorded in September 2013” Statin said.
The number of persons employed according to the latest data for 2014 is 1,124,500 persons, 14,000 (1.3 percent) more than the 1,110,500 recorded in September 2013, the report indicated. The composition continues to show much more male employment than female, with 645,900 males and 478,600.
According to the report the largest increases in the number of employed persons occurred in the groups ‘Wholesale & Retail, Repair of Motor Vehicle & Equipment’ and ‘Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing’. The number of persons employed in the group ‘Wholesale & Retail, Repair of Motor Vehicle & Equipment’ increased by 11,700 (5.5 percent) while the group ‘Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing’ increased by 7,800 (3.9 percent).

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