Jamaica’s inflation moderates but elevated

November 25, 2017 by

Inflation in Jamaica remains at an elevated level with the Consumer Price Index for October 2017 registering an increase rate of 0.4 percent, down from 0.7 percent in September.
The rate of inflation for the calendar year-to-date is 4 percent and for the past twelve months is running at 4.7 percent. The fiscal year-to-date inflation is 3 percent.
According to data released by Statin, the division of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels mainly impacted the movement as it increased by 1.7 percent. This was due chiefly to a 2.2 percent increase in the group, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels. Additionally, there was a 2.7 percent increase for the group Water,

Increased fuel prices added to inflation.

Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling, due to higher water and sewage rates. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages advanced by 0.3 percent influenced mainly by increased prices for items in the class ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco division recorded the second highest movement, 0.7 percent for the month.
The other divisions that recorded increases in the All Jamaica Clothing and Footwear’ 0.1 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.2 percent, ‘Health’ 0.2 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.2 percent, Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.1 percent and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.1 percent. There were no movement for each of the divisions ‘Communication’ and ‘Education’.

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Inflation eases again in August

September 18, 2017 by

The rate that consumer prices rose by, moderated further in “August with an increase in the inflation rate of 0.3 percent,” according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), coming down from 0.6 percent in July and 0.7 percent in June.
“The rate of inflation for the calendar year-to-date was 3 percent,” Statin stated. Inflation rate over the last twelve months is up 4.4 percent and the fiscal year-to-date 2 percent.
“Prices for Recreation and Culture rose 1.3 percent in August” and was “due to mainly to increased prices for books and other school equipment,” Statin said. Higher prices for produce such as cabbage, potato and yam, pushed the index for Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages by 0.6 percent, the report stated.

Prices of food increased in August.

Other divisions that recorded increases in prices are: Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco at 0.4 percent, Clothing and Footwear at 0.2 percent, Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance at 0.1 per cent, Health at 0.2 per cent, Restaurants and Accommodation Services at 0.1 percent, Miscellaneous Goods and Services at 0.1 percent. There were no movement for the divisions Communication, Education and Transport.

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Inflation eases in July

August 17, 2017 by

Inflation in Jamaica eased a bit in July to 0.6 percent compared to June 0.07 percent, according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin).
“For the second consecutive month the division Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages recorded the highest movement of 1.2 per cent. This was primarily due to an upward movement in the class ‘Vegetable and Starchy Foods up by 3.8 per cent,” Statin stated and the Transport division rose 0.3 percent. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels decreased by 0.3 percent a result of lower electricity rates.
Inflation for the calendar July come out at 2.7 percent, while the movement over the last twelve months runs at 4.5 percent, slightly more than the 4.4 percent at June.

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Jamaica’s Inflation spikes in June

July 24, 2017 by

‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ had a strong impact on price movement in June.

The Consumer Price Index for June 2017 increased by 0.7 percent, represented the highest monthly movement for the 2017 to date, a release from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) stated.
The rate of inflation for the calendar year-to-date is 2.1 percent, 4.4 percent over June last year, while the fiscal year-to-date rate is 1.1 percent.
According to Statin, the sharp increase in June was due mainly to increases in the index for the three heaviest weighted divisions: Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages up by 1.1 per cent, Transport 0.4 percent and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels up by 0.4 percent. The Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division was impacted by the flood rains in mid-May, which disrupted the supplies of agricultural products and resulted in a 3. 7 percent rise in Vegetables and Starchy Foods. The increase in the Transport division was influenced by higher prices for petrol. Increased electricity rates was chiefly responsible for the upward movement in the division Housing, Water, Electricity Gas and Other Fuels, as the class Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels rose by 1.1 per cent. However, the overall movement of the division was tempered by the 1.3 percent decline in the class Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling. Other notable increases were recorded for Restaurants and Accommodation Services, 0.6 percent and Recreation and Culture, 0.4 percent.

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Jamaica just eked out Q1 growth

July 7, 2017 by

Economic activity in Jamaican in the March 2017 quarter was virtually zero, according the data put out by Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin), the government body charged to collating economic data on the country. The results are subject to revision with the final out turn likely to be arrived at more than a year from now.
Statin stated that weather conditions affected production in both agricultural and the mining sector in the quarter leading to declines in those sectors.
According to the release by Statin, the economy grew by a mere “0.1 percent in real terms for the first quarter of 2017 when compared to the similar quarter of 2016. This growth was due mainly to a 0.4 percent increase in the Services industries. While there were improved performances in both the Manufacturing and Construction industries.” “The overall goods producing industries declined by 0.9 percent,” the report stated.
All industries within the Services industries recorded higher levels of output with the exception of Producers of Government Services which remained relatively unchanged.

Growth in Manufacturing grew 2.7%.

Increased output was recorded for: Electricity & Water (0.5 percent), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (0.3 percent), Hotels & Restaurants (1.1 percent), Transport, Storage & Communication (0.4 percent), Finance & Insurance Services (1.0 percent), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (0.3 percent) and Other Services (0.4 percent). Increase in visitor arrivals and increased activities in the restaurant group positively impacted the Hotels & Restaurants industry. Output of the Goods Producing industries declined by 0.9 percent due largely to a 3.6 percent reduction in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and a 9.9 percent decline in Mining & Quarrying.
“The performance of the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry was negatively affected by drought conditions in the south central parishes and heavy rainfall in the North Eastern parishes. The Mining & Quarrying industry was affected by operational problems at one of the factories, heavy rainfall and a loss in the market share from the United States of America for crude bauxite. The Manufacturing industry grew by 2.7 percent and Construction by 0.6 percent. Increased output from the Manufacturing industry was influenced mainly by a 5 percent increase in the Food, Beverages & Tobacco sub-industry. The overall growth in the Manufacturing industry was however, tempered by a 3.4 percent fall in petroleum output. The performance of the Construction industry reflected increased activities in the building construction and building installation sub-groups. The industry continued to benefit from the expansion and renovation in the hotel sector,” Statin said.

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Q1 non-traditional exports surge

July 4, 2017 by

Jamaica’s Non–Traditional Domestic Exports jumped sharply in the March 2017 quarter to almost equal Traditional Domestic Exports with just US$9 million separating the two.
The non-traditional exports was one of the bright spots in the country’s external trade performance which saw the trade deficit widening in the quarter as oil imports almost doubled in the quarter growing by 81 percent.
Non–Traditional Domestic Exports earned US$146 million, a stunning 42 percent or US$43 million increase over the similar 2016 period, this compares with Traditional Domestic Exports during the first quarter which were valued at US$155 million, a mere increase of US$7.7 million or 5.2 per cent over the first quarter of 2016.
The merchandise trade deficit worsened to US$996 million compared to US$795 million in the similar quarter of 2016, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reported.
The second half of 2017 should see an improvement in traditional exports as the Alpart alumina plant is now back in production.

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Inflation rate drops in May

June 16, 2017 by

Inflation in Jamaica after rising 0.4 percent in January and March and 0.3 percent in April has now fallen to just 0.1 percent for May this year, half of the 0.2 percent rise in February.
The increase for May brings the year to date 1.4 percent and the fiscal year-to-date to 0.4 percent. The inflation rate over the last twelve months rose to 4.6 percent. With the price of oil on the world market slipping recently, a low level of inflation can be expected for some time to come and could result in the year over year rate declining form the above level.
According to Statistical Institute of Jamaica the inflation for May is due to an increase of 0.1 percent in the index for the heaviest weighted division, Food, Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco. Within this division the group Food rose by 0.1 percent while other notable increases were recorded in the following divisions: Transport 0.2 percent, Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco 1.6 percent and Restaurants and Accommodation Services 0.3 percent. The upward movement in the index was tempered by a 0.2 percent fall in the division Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels due to lower rates for electricity, water and sewage.

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1.4% GDP growth for Jamaica in 2016

April 4, 2017 by

The Jamaican economy grew 1.4 percent for 2016, preliminary estimates by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, (STATIN) the government body charged with gathering and reporting on economic data shows.
The Jamaican economy grew by 1 percent in 2015, recent data from STATIN shows. Since 2004, the closest economic growth came close to the 2016 pace, is in 2007 with 1.45 percent and 2011 with 1.7 percent.
Growth was 1.1 percent for the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to the corresponding period in 2015, representing eighth consecutive quarters of economic growth. “Increased output levels of 0.5 percent in the Services and 3.1 percent in the Goods Producing Industries contributed to the overall growth,” STATIN stated.
Growth was achieved in seven of the eight Services Industries: Electricity & Water (2.0 percent); Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (0.2 percent); Hotels & Restaurants (2.5 percent); Transport, Storage & Communication (0.5 percent); Finance & Insurance Services (1.0 percent); Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (0.3 percent) and Other Services (0.7 percent).
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, increased by a strong 17.1 percent and Construction by just 0.6 percent. STATIN said “the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry was positively impacted by favourable weather conditions which resulted in higher crop yields, while the Construction industry benefitted from hotel expansion and renovation as well as the construction of office spaces to facilitate the expansion of Business Process Outsourcing activities.
Decreased output was recorded in Manufacturing by 0.2 percent and Mining & Quarrying by 11.9 percent. Manufacturing decline was influenced by a 5.3 percent fall in Other Manufacturing, due largely to lower output levels in petroleum refining. The effect of the decline was tempered by a 4.9 percent rise in Food, Beverages & Tobacco sub – industry. Mining & Quarrying industry continued to be negatively affected by reduced demand for bauxite from the overseas refineries.”

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Jamaica’s 2017 inflation to beat 2016 – 1.7%?

January 18, 2017 by

Fuel prices at the pumps in May 2015.

Inflation in Jamaica for 2016, fell to the lowest level in decades, with the Consumer Price Index showing inflation rate at just 1.72 percent for the year. The findings were released by Statistical Institute of Jamaica.
The inflation rate for 2017 could be even lower than that of 2016, if the historical patterns repeat. The 2016 out turn compares with 3.7 percent recorded for 2015. The rate for December 2016 was 0.3 percent and is just below the average of fiscal year-to-date movement of 3.1 percent to December 2016.
The rate for 2016 would have been even less, had it not been for increased taxes imposed by the government on a series of items in the first half of the year. The added increase from taxes should not recur in 2017 as revenues are running well ahead of target for the 2017 fiscal year and a pickup in growth should see a healthy increase in revenues for the new fiscal year.
In 2016, inflation in Jamaica, benefited from a continuation in tight fiscal policies, pursued by the government, but it would have been negatively affected by slippage in the exchange rate of the Jamaican dollar versus the US dollar. Moderation in energy prices helped as well.
Going forward, the country should continue to benefit from relatively low energy prices a more stable exchange rate of the Jamaican dollar as foreign exchange inflows remain strong.
Data going back to 2002 suggests that the first two months of the year tend to have flat to negative inflation. In 2015 inflation remained below the December 2014 level until April and just inching ahead in May. In 2016 it remained below the December 2015 level until July.

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Doubts cast on employment rate

December 5, 2016 by

The Unemployment Rate for June 2016 fell to 12.9 percent, the lowest level since it hit a post 2007 high of 15.4 percent, in June 2013. It is the first time it is breaking below the 13 per cent level that it was stuck at for years. One aspect of the data raises questions about the findings.
Ja Unemply -2011-6-16.According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica the government body charged with collecting and collating economic data on the country. ”There were 1,186,900 employed persons in July 2016 which was 39,400 more than the 1,147,500, recorded in July 2015. The industry group Wholesale & Retail, Repair of Motor Vehicle & Equipment had the largest gain (13,300) in employment moving from 220,200 in July 2015 to 233,500 in July 2016. For the same period the industry group Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing had the largest decline (14,000), moving from 205,200 to 191,200. The industry group Construction had the largest increase in the number of males (10,200) and the groups Manufacturing (7,100) and Other Community, Social and Personal Service Activities (7,100) accounted for the largest increase in the number of females in the period.”
The big question is how is it possible for agriculture to have grown by a massive 38 percent, according to data from the Planning Institute of Jamaica and for there to be a major fall in employment in that category? The more likely situation is that employment grew sharply in the agricultural sector, resulting in a much greater fall in unemployment, assuming the estimate for growth in agriculture is correct.

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