Falling stock prices outnumbered rising ones by a big margin, leading the Main Market indices of the Jamaica Stock Exchange to slip moderately on Friday as the value of stocks trading surged nearly four times Thursday’s level.
At the close, JSE All Jamaican Composite Index declined by 556.70 points to 551,796.09, the JSE Market Index lost 504.45 points to close at 502,418.76 and the JSE Financial Index inched 0.06 points higher to 135.93.
The market closed with 39 securities changing hands in the main and US dollar markets with 9 advancing, 17 declining and the prices of 13 stocks closed unchanged. JSE Main Market activity ended with 37 securities accounting for 59,610,460 units for $774,571,962, in contrast to 9,942,249 units valued $213,225,571 on Thursday, from 36 securities.
Wigton Windfarm dominated trading with 33 million shares and 60 percent of volumes traded, followed by Wisynco Group with 12 million shares for 32 percent of the day’s trade and JMMB Group with 2.3 million shares for 4 percent market share.
The market closed with an average of 1,528,704 units valued at an average of $21,515,888 for each security traded, in contrast to 284,064 units valued at $6,092,159 on Thursday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to 457,043 units for $7,086,604 and previously, an average of 351,921 units for $5,507,716 for each security changing hands. The market closed out November with an average of 653,621 units valued at $8,699,916 for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 12 stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and none closed with lower offers. The PE ratio of the market ended at 19.3, with the Main Market ending at 19.1 times the current year’s earnings.
In the premier market, Caribbean Cement lost $2 to end at $74.50, with 397,460 units changing hands, Eppley climbed $1 to settle at $15, with an exchange of 100 shares, Jamaica Producers lost $1.29 in trading 31,289 stock units to end at $23.50, Kingston Wharves shed $2 to settle at $61, in trading 4,558 units. Mayberry Investments fell 69 cents to close at $8.21, after transferring 4,080 shares, Mayberry Jamaican Equities declined by 95 cents to end at $12, with 17,049 units changing hands, NCB Financial Group gained $1.10 to close at $201.10, in swapping 499,603 shares. 138 Student Living added $1.13 to end at $4.93, with 31,950 shares crossing the exchange, PanJam Investment gained $2.49 to close at $101.99, swapping 1,068,431 shares. Pulse Investments rose 39 cents to $4.69, with 100 units changing hands, Sagicor Real Estate Fund exchanged 5,100 and lost 51 cents to end at $10, Scotia Group dropped $2 to settle at $55.50, in transferring 62,328 shares. Seprod shed 25 cents in trading 10,720 stock units to close at $50.25, Supreme Ventures lost 22 cents to close at $25.28 with 119,205 units crossing the market and Sygnus Credit Investments drifted 80 cents down to $21.20 while exchanging 20,476 shares.
Trading in the US dollar market closed with 1,042,954 units valued at US$326,173 with the market index adding 3.51 points to close at 217.42. Proven Investments traded 977,693 to close with a gain of 0.5 cents at 32 US cents and Sygnus Credit Investments lost 1 cent in exchanging 65,261shares at 13 US cents.
MailPac drops out of IC TOP 10
Newly listed MailPac Group more than doubled in price, trading as high as $2.60 but closed the week at $2.22 and dropped out of the TOP Junior Market listing.
IC Insider.com has upgraded the average targeted PE to March 2020 based on the valuation of more than 22 times earnings, that the market has placed on several stocks currently.
Honey Bun also jumped ship after posting strong growth with full-year results showing profit rising 67 percent to hit $157 million from a 17 percent rise in revenues to $1.54 billion. The stock closed at $8, up from $7 last week, but traded at a record high of $9.20 on Friday. Honey Bun entered the TOP 10 in the first week in October at $6.15 and left with a gain of 30 percent, but it still has more gains ahead of it. tTech price fell to $5.35 and re-entered the TOP 10 along with Caribbean Flavours, with its price dropping from $17.90 last week to close at $15.64 to return to the TOP 10. PanJam Investment moved into the JSE Main Market Top 10 at the expense of Stanley Motta.
The past week was generally good for stocks as the JSE Main Market rose 4,691 points and the Junior Market climbed 89 points. The Junior Market movement was partially helped by the steep rise in the price of MailPac, from the IPO price of $1. Importantly, the Junior Market has made a sharp break out of a downward sloping channel that started after the market peaked in Mid-August. It now seems to be heading higher, with a healthy break out of the channel.
IC Insider.com has upgraded the target PE ratios to 25 with several stocks trading at that around 22 currently. The average projected gains for the IC TOP 10 stocks are 187 percent for Junior Market stocks and 145 percent for JSE Main market Top 10 shares.
Medical Disposables lead the top three Junior Market stocks with projected gains of 257 percent, followed by Main Event with potential profits of 246 percent and Lumber Depot with 233 percent.
Radio Jamaica is the lead stock with projected gains of 247 percent, followed by Pulse Investments in the number two spot with a projected growth of 164 percent and Carreras with a likely increase of 111percent is next.
The JSE Main Market closed the week, with an overall PE of 21.5 and the Junior Market at 14.6, an improvement over the previous week’s 14.2, based on current year’s earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 8.9 from 8.7 last week with the Main Market PE at 10.5.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 39 percent to the average for Junior Market stocks and JSE Main Market stocks trade at a discount of 51 percent to the overall market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year, are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Possible values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.
This report is compiled by persons who may have an interest in the securities commented on.
Scotia Group aiming to up profits
The 2019 fiscal year is turning out to be one of the best in recent times for the number 2 banking group in Jamaica – Scotia Group. The current year was not the best performing, but it delivered on many counts for the majority Canadian owned banking group.
Critically, the primary engine driving profits – loans, grew 12.6 percent, or $23 billion to $206 billion. According to the Managing Director, David Noel, “total loan growth remained strong throughout the period with a year over year increase of 13 percent. Highlights from our Retail Banking portfolio include a 17 percent year over year growth in our Scotia Plan loan portfolio. Our mortgage portfolio continued to perform well and grew 13 percent year over year as we continue to boast one of the most competitive mortgage rates in the market. Our total commercial loan book increased by 14 percent over the prior year. Of note, commercial loans to the private sector increased by 27 percent when compared to the same period last year.”
The group reports a net profit of $13.19 billion for the year to October, an increase of $419 million or 3.28 percent over the prior year. In 2018, the group booked gains on the sale of a subsidiary of $753 million, when this gain is excluded, net profit from ongoing operations increased by stronger 9.75 percent amounting to $1.17 billion.
Performance for the year was affected by lower net interest income due to declining interest rates and higher loan loss provision, following the adoption of a new accounting standard. Net interest income after expected credit losses for the year totaled $22.5 billion, down $767 million or 3.3 percent, compared to the prior year. Importantly, the group’s final quarter numbers show marked improvement in net interest income compared to the 2018 quarter. Net interest income delivered $6.4 million to the quarterly results compared to just $6 billion in 2018, while Net interest income after expected credit losses rose from $5.35 billion in the October 2018 quarter to $5.75 billion in 2019.
Scotia reports that “our credit quality remains strong and actual delinquency is down year over year, with loans on which there is no interest being booked for representing 1.77 percent of gross loans compared to 2 percent in the prior year.”
The Group reports, “operating expenses were also higher than the prior-year due partially to increased fraud-related expenses, as well as increased investments in technology and business optimization which we believe are necessary investments for the future.”
“We will continue to make investments in our infrastructure, including a $500 million investment to create a state of the art branch. Renovations have also begun at our head office building, where we are investing $1 billion to upgrade and modernize our facilities to create a more efficient and collaborative environment.”
Operating expenses for the year amounted to $24 billion for the period, an increase of $2 billion, or 9.54 percent compared to the prior year. Salaries and staff benefit costs increased by $697 million or 6.76 percent primarily due to increased incentives to the sales team resulting in the growth of in the loan portfolio, while other operating expenses grew by $1.37 billion. The growth in other operating expenses was attributable to increased technology investments such as ATM software, online banking enhancements, security chips for credit cards and network upgrade to support our digital strategy. Tax on assets increased by $45 million to $1.13 billion.
Segment results saw Treasury generating revenues of $8.2 billion up from $7 billion in 2018 with a profit of compared to $4.1 billion in 2018. Retail revenues grew to $18.9 billion up from $18.3 billion in 2018, with a profit of $3.6 billion compared to $4.9 billion in 2018. Corporate and Commercial banking saw revenues rise from $7.8 billion to $8 billion and profit hitting $1.4 billion in 2019 versus $2.75 billion in 2018. Insurance services grew revenues from $5 billion to $5.1 billion and generated a slightly higher profit of $3.97 billion from $3.8 billion in 2018. Investment Management generated revenues of $3.5 million and a profit of $2.3 billion in 2019 compared to $3 billion in revenues and profit of $1.8 billion in 2018. Other operations raked in revenues of $1.54 in 2019 with a profit of $1.5 billion, in 2018, revenues were just $1 billion with a profit of $965 million.
Other income for the year, other than interest income, increased by $3 billion or 17.97 percent over 2018. Net fee and commission income amounted to $8 billion, marginal declining of $22 million. Insurance revenues increased by $371 million or 12.64 percent to $3.30 billion due mainly to higher premium income year over year, partially offset by lower actuarial reserve releases, the group reported.
Net gains on foreign currency activities and financial assets amounted to $8.43 billion, up by $3.3 billion or 63 percent above last year due to increased market and trading activities. Deposits by the public grew to $313 billion, up from $288 billion in the previous year.
The Group’s shareholders’ equity stands at $118 billion from which the Board of Directors approved a final dividend of 55 cents per stock unit, or $1.7 billion, up from 51 cents per share in 2018. The current dividend is payable on January 15, 2020, to stockholders of record on December 24. The January 2020 dividend brings the total payment for the year to $4.76 after the group made two special dividend payments during the year.
The group reported earnings per share of $1.09 for the final quarter and $4.24 for the full year, earnings per share for 2020 should hit the $5 mark.
Scotia Group is a good stock for income and long-term growth.