The volume of stocks traded fell 51 percent less, with the value falling by 57 percent from trading on Monday on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, but it led to rising stock beating out declining ones by a wide margin at the close on Tuesday.
A total of 35 securities trading down from 41 on Monday and ended with 19 rising, 11 declining and five closing unchanged.
The Junior Market Index slipped 4.40 points to 3,390.68. The PE Ratio, a measure used to compute appropriate stock values, averages 13.4. The PE ratio of each stock is shown in the chart below, is based on earnings forecasted by ICInsider.com for companies with the financial year ending up to August 2022.
Trading ended with 2,624,356 shares changing hands for $8,025,937 compared to 5,361,145 units at $18,729,533 on Monday. Future Energy Source led trading with 1.0 million shares for 38.3 percent of total volume, followed by Jetcon Corporation with 196,746 units for 7.5 percent of the day’s trade and Lasco Manufacturing with 176,276 units for 6.7 percent market share.
Trading averaged 74,982 shares at $229,312 versus 130,760 shares at $456,818 on Monday and for the month to date an average of 105,072 units at $352,046. October closed with an average of 162,777 units at $557,275.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows five stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and five with lower offers.
At the close, Access Financial rose $2.54 to $19.55 after exchanging 1,126 shares, Blue Power declined 16 cents to close at $3.11 in switching ownership of 4,500 stock units, Express Catering dropped 25 cents to $4.85 after 7,200 stocks crossed the market. Fontana popped 24 cents to end at $6.94 after 45,388 units changed hands, General Accident rallied 10 cents to $5.45 in trading 38,736 stocks, GWest Corporation climbed 22 cents to end at 92 cents while exchanging 38,708 stock units. Honey Bun advanced 25 cents to $9.50, with 21,498 units changing hands, iCreate dropped 9 cents to end at 86 cents, with 59,004 stock units crossing the market, KLE Group rose 35 cents to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $2.20 with the swapping of 81,775 shares, Lasco Distributors popped 6 cents in closing at $3.56 with an exchange of 8,480 units. Lasco Financial rose 6 cents to $3.15 while exchanging 4,003 stock units, Lasco Manufacturing increased 47 cents to $4.80, with 176,276 stocks clearing the market, Limners and Bards popped 6 cents in closing at $3.60 in exchanging 77,116 units, Mailpac Group increased 7 cents to close at $3.82, with 53,232 stocks crossing the market, Main Event fell 50 cents to $3.90 trading 4,240 shares, Paramount Trading declined 6 cents to close at $1.04 in an exchange of 4,988 stock units and Stationery and Office Supplies popped 29 cents to end at $5.90 in an exchange of 124 units.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.
JSE 9 months profit surge demands caution
Profit after Tax surged 156 percent for Jamaica Stock Exchange in the 2021 third quarter to $187 million over the $73 million generated in 2020, as revenues jumped 66.5 percent to $621 million, from $373 million earned in the September 2020 quarter.
Revenues and profit for the above period got a healthy injection from a significant $14 billion trade in National Financial Group in July and a sizable exchange of Barita Investments shares of 38,808,202 million units on September 28, valued at $3.99 billion that made up 47 percent of overall trading in the month.
The NCB trade pushed trading in the Main Market in July to $16 billion, well up on the over $8.5 billion regular tradings that occurred in August and up September $8.37 that benefited from the one-time Barita trade. Regardless of the one-off trades, the third quarter trading is well up on the first half of the year with an average of $2.8 billion per month. Junior Market trading for the quarter is well up on that for 2020 and is up 53 percent in dollar terms for the nine months to September, with the September quarter up a robust 114 percent over last year. Junior Market trading is $5.2 billion for the year to September and represents less than the trading in the Main Market in September alone.
Performance for the nine months was less spectacular, with total revenues rising 17 percent to $1.47 billion from $1.26 billion and profit climbing a respectable 32 percent to $378 million from $286 million.
Income from cess grew sharply to $232 million from just $57 million in the September 2020 quarter and $366 million from $232 million in the 2020 nine months. Fee Income rose from $298 million to $369 for the September quarter and from $933 million to $1.02 billion this year to September.
Total Expenses increased by 33.7 percent to $352 million from $263 million to the September 2020 quarter but increased by 11 percent in the nine months to $942 million from $839 million in 2020.in 2020. Staff Cost increased by $53 million due to salary adjustments and additional staffing, Property Expenses increased by $22 million attributed to increases in maintenance costs and licenses expense and Securities Commission Fees climbed by $23 million over the prior year.
Total current assets amount to $980,975, with cash and investments standing at $642 million and receivables of $335 million. Total current liabilities stood at $336 million. The group has long term investments of $221 million.
Shareholders’ Equity rose to $1.72 billion from $1.39 billion at the end of September 2020 and $1.53 at the end of December last year.
The company paid a dividend of $191 million during the year compared to $365 million in 2020.
Operating cash flow before movements in working capital brought in $601 million, but the group ended up with $430 million from operating activities after paying corporate taxes of $195 million.
Looking forward earnings per share that are up to 54 cents for the nine months from 41 cents in 2020 could end the year at 70 cents, but the signs are not very good with main market trading less than half of trading in August and September, but trading could pick up in the two remaining months of the year, helping to improve the company’s fortunes.
For 2021, there are positives and negatives with the expected rebound in the economy with tourism number rapidly growing BPO expansion and hopefully more new listing on the exchange. On the negative side, increased interest rates that are now in place could crimp trading activity they move much high in 2022. If confidence returns that could boost trading and generate more revenues and profits for the exchange currently at $17.50, the stock trades at a rich PE of 25, not excessively rich, but there is no room for growth presently, with the market average at 15.5.
Trading picks up for JSE USD market
Trading closed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange US dollar market on Monday as investors exchanged 63 percent more shares valued 51 percent more than Friday, resulting in an even number of stocks rising and falling and slippage in the index declining.
Trading ended with five securities changing hands, compared to six on Friday, with prices of two rising, two declining and one ending unchanged.
The JSE US Denominated Equities Index fell 4.36 points to end at 194.90. The PE Ratio, a measure used in computing appropriate stock values, averages 12.2. The PE ratio is based on earnings forecasts done by ICInsider.com for each company, with the financial year ending during the current year up to August 2022.
Overall, 931,949 shares traded for US$28,540up from 570,773 units at US$18,913 on Friday. Trading averaged 186,390 units at US$5,708 compared to 95,129 shares at US$3,152 on Friday compared to October that ended with an average of 48,646 units for US$4,160.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows one stock ending with a bid higher than its last selling price and two with lower offers.
At the close, First Rock Capital US share remained unchanged at 7 US cents with a transfer of 808 shares, Proven Investments rallied 1.69 cents to 23.9 US cents with 83,508 stock units traded, Sygnus Credit Investments USD share rose 0.19 of a cent to end at 12.99 US cents with investors switching ownership of 17,171 stocks. Sygnus Real Estate Finance USD share dropped 2.3 cents to 14 US cents with 1,300 units changing hands and Transjamaican Highway shed 0.15 of a cent to close at 0.8 of US cents with 829,162 shares crossing the exchange.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.
ICTOP10 Dolphin Cove jumps 25%
The highlights of the week for ICTOP10 stocks is the price movement of stocks, with the big moves being Dolphin Cove with a recovery of 25 percent back to $10.25 and 14 percent for Access Financial in the Junior market and 21 percent rise, with the Junior market closing over the 3,400 points level for the first time since July and is now close to a two year’s high. Caribbean Producers to $8 after it hit an all-time high of $9 on Wednesday to be up 186 percent for the year to Friday.
Sygnus Credit Investment gave back the 5 percent increase last week to end at $17.80. Berger Paints and Proven Investments both gave up 3 percent during the week, while Junior Market Lasco Financial gave up six percent at the end of the week in closing at $3.05 and Caribbean Assurance Brokers lost three percent, from $1.79 to $1.74 as Medical Disposables rose four percent to $4.95 after hitting an intraday high of $5.80 on Friday and Lumber Depot rose four percent to $2.97.
There are no additions to the ICTOP10 this week, but with company results increasingly appearing, the markets could benefit from some of them. Caribbean Cement released third quarter results and investors responded negatively to them with the third quarter profit, down sharply from bot 2020 third quarter and the previous two quarters. The stock propped higher to close the week at $114 after it fell to almost $100. This stock now looks like one for 2022 as it seems fully valued based on probable results for 2021. Jamaica Stock Exchange released third quarter numbers with higher 2021 income and profit helped considerably by two big one off type trades in August and September, as such, investors should be careful that they do not read too much into those results about exciting prospects. Mayberry Investments released results for the year to September with profit up for the nine months from a loss of $664 million to a profit of $513 million and a profit of $224 million, down from $298 million in September 2020 quarter. Other comprehensive income that is positive for the nine months rising from a fall of $5 billion in 2020 to a surplus of $1.2 billion but a loss of $861 million for the September 2021 quarter. The company will be paying a hefty dividend of 32 cents per share. The company will be paying a hefty dividend of 32 cents per share. Lasco Manufacturing and Lasco Distributor reported second quarter results. The former enjoyed a 13 percent increase in revenues to $4.65 billion and a 6 percent rise in profit to $782 million after increased taxation in the period versus a lower rate in 2020. The distributing company enjoyed a 15 percent rise in revenues to $11.6 billion and a 14 percent fall in after tax profit to $197 million.
As 2021 slowly crawls to a close, the focus should be on 2022 and the current year’s values to determine the appropriate valuation of each stock for a hold or fold decision. Most of the top 2021 stocks will not make the top 10 in 2022, but some will. The IC 80/20 rule, with a long 40 year history, shows an average of only two of the top ten stocks in a year repeat in the following one, while 4 out of 10 of the worst performing stocks will end up as TOP 10 winners in the succeeding year.
The top seven stocks so far, with gains of 52 to 231 percent, are; Future Energy, Jamaican Teas, Fosrich, ISP Finance, Lumber Depot, Express Catering and Honey Bun. In the Main market, Caribbean Cement, Caribbean Producers, Salada Foods, Radio Jamaica and Grace.
The top three Main Market stocks are Guardian Holdings, Berger Paints and JMMB Group, with expected gains of 216 to 254 percent versus last weeks’ 238 to 264 percent.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market have undergone a metamorphose with only are Elite Diagnostic, remaining in the top three this week and is followed by General Accident and Lasco Financial, with all three having the potential to gain between 228 and 281 percent, from 238 percent and 287 percent, previously.
The average gains projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks moved from 213 percent last week to 202 percent and Main Market stocks moved from 173 percent to 169 percent.
The Junior Market closed the week with an average PE 13.2 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is currently well below the target of 20 and the historical average of 17 for the period to March this year, based on 2020 earnings. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 6.8, with a 52 percent discount to that market’s PE.
The overall Junior Market can gain 51 percent to March next year, based on an average PE of 20 and 29 percent based on an average PE of 17. Seven stocks representing 15 percent of all Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, down from nine last week, indicating that many others will rise above the 17 mark in the weeks ahead.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 15.6, which is 22 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 28 percent below the target of 20 to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 7.8, representing a 50 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. A total of 12 stocks or 25 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average PE of 25.5, suggesting that the accepted multiple maybe around 25 times the current year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. The TOP10 is a selection of stocks that are most likely to deliver the largest gains within fifteen months. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on possible increases for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
JSE US dollar market surges on Friday
The JSE US Denominated Equities Index rebounded firmly, with 14.33 points to end at 199.26 and more than recovered the near 11 points fall on Thursday as trading ended on the JSE US dollar market Friday, after investors transferred 270 percent more shares than on Thursday, resulting in more stocks rising than falling.
Trading ended with six securities changing hands, down from nine on Thursday with prices of five rising and one declining.
PE Ratios, are measures used in computing appropriate stock values, averages 12.4. The PE ratio is based on earnings forecast done by ICInsider.com for each company with the financial year ending during the current year up to August 2022.
Overall, 570,773 shares traded for US$18,913 compared with 154,268 units versus US$24,039 on Thursday. Trading averaged 95,129 units at US$3,152, 17,141 shares at US$2,671 on Thursday and month to date averaging 48,646 at US$4,160 versus 46,415 units at US$4,208 on Thursday. September ended with an average of 853,681 units for US$132,197. Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows no stock ending with a bid higher than the last selling price and one with a lower offer.
At the close, First Rock Capital US advanced 0.1 of a cent to 7 US cents with an exchange of 142,050 shares, Productive Business Solutions rallied 21 cents to 95 US cents with 338 stock units changing hands, Proven Investments fell 0.79 of a cent to finish at 22.21 US cents with 19,800 stocks traded. Sygnus Credit Investments USD climbed 0.8 of a cent to close at 12.8 US cents with investors switching ownership of 2,053 units, Sygnus Real Estate Finance USD rose 0.3 of a cent to 16.3 US cents with a transfer of 501 stock units and Transjamaican Highway gained 0.08 of a cent to close at 0.95 of a US cent with 406,031 shares crossing the exchange.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.