The performance this past week in the Junior and the Main Market diverged significantly the Junior Market recorded gains in the week and put it back at early March levels this year while the main market declined further continuing negative performance since the beginning of June and is now back at August 2018 levels and is providing investors with a great opportunity to add some of these stocks to their early Christmas shopping at bargain prices.
The Junior Market has broken through the downward-sloping resistance line of the wedge. The Junior Market reclaimed the 3,800 handle last week and is close to retaking the 3,900 level shortly, with the market set for a big rally in the second half of the year a position supported by technical analysis of the market. The Main Market seems to be weighed down by concerns relating to inflation and interest rates, if so the reading is wrong as inflation is well under control and interest rates will start dropping before the year ends.
Against the background, the Junior Market recorded gains for six stocks during the week with iCreate jumping 26 percent to $1.20, Caribbean Cream moving up 22 percent to $3.89 and Edufocal putting on 6 percent to end the week at $1.89 hey worst performer was Iron Rock Insurance down 7 percent to $2 and General Accident fell 5 percent to $5, while One and One lost 3 percent to close the week at $1.04.
The Main Market had one price movement of note with Transjamaican rising 13 percent to close the week at $2.39. Declining are 138 Student Living down 11 percent to $4.60, Guardian Holdings, with a loss of 7 percent to $450.01 and Caribbean Producers lost 5 percent to end the week at $9.48.
Transjamaican moved out of the Main Market TOP10, with a gain of 27 percent since entering the TOP10 and 35 percent since it was added to Stocks to Watch at $1.77 in April, is replaced by Caribbean Cement, with projected earnings of $6.50 notwithstanding for the first quarter profit and in the Junior Market, Edufocal moved out while Everything Fresh returns after a brief absence to the TOP10 with the price having fallen to $1.50.
Transjamaican, although out of the top 10 has much more room to grow with the potential for an additional 200% increase in the stock price. A look at the order book for Transjamaican suggests that demand is likely to overwhelm supply over the next two to three weeks with a likely price target then of $3. Even then the potential dividend yield that could be 8 percent at that price could result in the price going higher.
Recent developments for some stocks – Lasco Distributors and Lasco Manufacturing increased dividends to 10 cents and 12 cents respectively, with both to be paid in July, while Stationery and Office Supplies hit a record high in the week at $24 but closed the week at $20 for a 17 percent gain for the year. The stock is now a prime candidate for a stock split. Earnings for Berger Paints were adjusted down to $1 per share for 2023.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.8, well below the market average of 13.1. The Main Market TOP10 is projected to have an average of 254 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The 15 most highly valued Main Market stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 98, with an average of 29 and 20 excluding the highest PE stocks, 23 for the top half and 18 excluding the stocks with the highest PEs.
The Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.8 compared with the market at 11.1. There are 11 stocks representing 23 percent of the market, with PE from 15 to 42, averaging 21 that are well above the average of the market. The top half of the market has an average PE of 16, possibly the lowest fair value for Junior Market stocks currently. Junior Market is projected to rise by 270 percent to May 2024.
The divergence between the average PE ratio of the Main and Junior Markets and the overall market valuation is an important indicator of the level of likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks.
In the market generally, Investors continue to nibble away at a number of stocks and in the process gradually reducing the supply of several stocks that are attractively priced as the market moves toward the summer months, the start of the stock market year.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
ICTOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.