JPG ups Kingston Wharves holding, NCB out

ncb-logoNCB Capital Markets purchased 466,435,712 on behalf of a client. Shares held by the NCB group were part of the transaction. NCB Jamaica Limited had 360,807,145 or 28.27 percent of the company and NCB Capital Markets Ltd. A/C 2231 had 105,283,757 or 8.25 percent. Steven Gooden of NCB Capital Market only comment is “a release will be made after the close of the Jamaica Stock Exchange today”.
The transaction is clearly not one of a name change as that would have been done as a block transaction. As a result of the transaction, Seaboard is acquiring 21 percent and Jamaica Producers 11.59 percent of the outstanding Kingston Wharves shares. Producers will now own approximately 42 percent of the company. Jeffery Hall CEO of Jamaica Producers confirm the groups interest in the deal and advised of a release after trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, to provide the full details.
KingstonWharves280x150Jamaica Producers Group already owns 431,777,188 or 33.83 percent of the company and would end up with just over 70 percent of the company. The transaction which was mostly done at $6.50 per share or $1.49 above Tuesday closing price cost $3 billion and would effectively trigger a compulsory takeover offer to the minority shareholders if it was all purchased by Jamaica Producers. The transaction took place in three main blocks that were all done at $6.50,and include 300,345,000 units costing 1,952,242,500, 60,462,145 shares costing $393,003,943 and 105,283,757 at a cost of $684,344,421. Apparently, the largest block was sold to more than one party to the transaction and would have been the reason for the split up of it. This arrangement could mean that Jamaica Producer’s Group would not be a majority shareholder and therefore not trigger the take over clause. the increase in the price exceeds the 15 percent rule of the JSE but the stock had closed Tuesday with a bid of $5.75 which was a set up to allow for the traded at todays price.
In 2012,Jamaica Producers had increased their holdings in Kingston Wharves when they bought Three Hundred and Fifty Seven Million Five Hundred and Fifty Thousand (357,550,000) ordinary shares of KWL at a price of $5 per share to help fund the company’s expansion and modernization in pursuit of increased business expected to flow form the Panama canal expansion.
the transaction will boost NCB 2014 earnings as it comes days ahead of the bank’s year end and whatever gains there will be, will be in the incorporated into the results.

Are Jamaican stocks on the verge of a breakout?

J-stks1Stock markets can be like tsunamis, the change in the current is not seen as it moves out of site until it’s time for all to see what’s been happening. That is one reason investors are often advised to invest in stocks that enjoy good profit performances, as there is no certainty when markets will move in one direction or another.
Profit drives stock prices, one only has to wait on the pay day, which will surely come. What does this have to do with the local stock market? Many investors wrote off any chance that the local market would have any recovery after the spring decline coming against the strong demand for foreign exchange, not aware of the market’s history.
A critical point, investors in local stocks should note, is that the best times to start buying stocks is during the summer months. The Jamaican stock market bottoms and starts to move upwards in more summers than at any other time in its history, this goes back to the start of the creation of the market index, back in the early 1970s. For 2014, prices on the Jamaica stock market declined a bit from its earlier 2014 high, with several stocks hitting 52 weeks’ lows into the early summer months, with the Main market hitting a low on June 23 and the junior market on August 4.
Recent developments| The average person may look to changes in the market indices to guide them in what is happening in the market. And yet others will wait until the news headline say stocks are rising. The problem with this approach is that indices movements cloud what may be important shifts in values and prices and when the main news highlights what is happening in the market much of the gains are gone. From the end of August to September 19th this year, the all Jamaica index rose by 1 percent while for August it remained flat. The junior market index rose 3 percent in September so far, but was flat for August. But something else is happening that bode well for continuation of an upward move of the market. More importantly, upward move for some stock prices. In September up the 19th on 53 percent of trading days, the all Jamaica index rose while for the junior market it is 60 percent and with the month not ended the ratio could improve. In August the ratios are 42 percent and 48 percent respectively. The advance decline ratio tells a far better story than the indices movements. The main market had only 7 days when the advance decline ratio was negative and so far for September that number is just 4 with 7 trading days to go before the month ends.
Interest Rates| Rising interest rates drive money out of stocks into other investments, the reverse is also true falling rates drive money into stocks to position for better returns in the stock market. Interest rates on government Treasury bills have been declining since May and flows in the forex market are buoyant with the local dollar remaining stable. Technically, the main market is seeing the short term moving average on the verge of crossing the medium term moving average, a bullish sign. Importantly, many listed companies have been posted some attractive results for 2014 that is supportive of an upward push in their stock price. These are positives that will help the market.

2 consecutive down days on JSE

Tuesday’s Activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, resulted in the prices of 5 stocks rising and 7 declining, with 22 securities changing hands. A total of 4,797,725 units traded, valued at $27,746,916 in both the main and junior market.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator, showed 9 stocks with bids higher, than their last selling prices, and 4 stocks with offers that were lower.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index fell 425.48 points to 71,432.21 and the JSE All Jamaican Composite index lost 475.76 points to close at 78,582.39.
JSE sum 23-9-14 Gains| Stocks gaining with last traded prices, at the end of trading in the main market are, Grace Kennedy with 22,436 shares, with 40 cents rise to $58, Jamaica Producers with 1,000,000 shares changing hands, closed 12 cents higher at $15.20 and Radio Jamaica had 13,754 shares changing hands with a gain of 2 cents to $1.04.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in the last traded price are, Cable & Wireless contributing 186,952 shares to close at 30 cents, Caribbean Cement with 4,061 units closed at $2.55, Desnoes & Geddes closed at $4.70 with 553,461 shares trading, National Commercial Bank ended at $18 as 53,945 units changed hands and Sagicor Group accounted for 70,007 shares, to close at $9.25.
Declines| The last traded prices of stocks with losses stocks at the end of trading in the main market are, Carreras with 5,864 shares, lost 10 cents to end at $34.30, Jamaica Broilers traded just 2,330 units with a 5 cents loss and closed at $4.40, Jamaica Money Market Brokers with 56,346 ordinary shares changing hands, lost 5 cents to end at $6.95, Pan Jamaican Investment with 3,500 shares trading, ended at $49 after giving up a cent, Sagicor Real Estate Fund exchanged 29,350 units, with a loss of 34 cents to $6.80 and Scotia Group 141,730 shares helped to lop 31 cents off the price to end at $19.09.
Preference| Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.50% preference share, traded 340,600 units at $2 and Proven Investments 8% preference share traded 15,800 units at $5.05.

Advances and declines even 7:7 on JSE

Activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Monday, resulted in the prices of 7 stocks rising and 7 declining as 20 securities changed hands, resulting in 1,789,786 units trading, valued at $11,932,664.
JSE sum 22-9-14 Main Market| The JSE Market Index declined 529.66 points, to 71,857.69 and the JSE All Jamaican Composite index fell 592.25 points to close at 79,058.15.
Gains| Stocks closing with gains at their last traded price, in the main market are, Carreras with 26,708 ordinary shares trading, 5 cents higher to $34.40, Pan Jamaican Investment had 1,000 shares changing hands, one cent higher at $49.01, Proven Investments with 10,570 units, increased 0.99 US cent to 17.99 US cents, Sagicor Group put through 346,200 units with a gain of 5 cents to $9.25 and Scotia Group, had 91,798 shares changing hands, 15 cents higher at $19.40.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in the last traded price are, Cable & Wireless with 3,000 units, closing at 30 cents, Jamaica Money Market Brokers with 60,068 ordinary shares, closed at $7 and National Commercial Bank with 55,031 shares ended at $18.
Declines| The last traded prices of stocks with losses at the end of trading in the main market are, Grace Kennedy with 19,260 shares, losing 40 cents to end at $57.60, Jamaica Broilers with 10,000 shares fell 25 cents to $4.45, Mayberry Investments with 707 shares lost 5 cents to end at $1.45 and Radio Jamaica with 42,096 shares, declined 2 cents to $1.02.
Preference| Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference share traded 33,113 units with a cent increase, at $3.02, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.50% preference share traded 487,000 units at $2 and Proven Investments 8% preference share traded 371,893 units at $5.
Junior Market| The JSE Junior Market Index fell 0.50 points to close at 661.73, only 5 stocks traded, with 1 advancing and 3 declining.
Gains| Lasco Distributors was the only stock recording a gain at the end of trading in the junior market, with 49,500 units at a 1 cent gain to $1.13.
Firm Trades| C2W Music traded 15,000 units at 40 cents, to be the only stock in the junior market that traded to close without a price change.
Declines| Stocks declining in the junior market at the end of trading, are Caribbean Cream with 48,093 shares to lose 3 cents at 61 cents, General Accident with 40,000 shares, lost 4 cents to end at $1.46 and Lasco Manufacturing with 78,749 shares closed with a gain of a cent at 96 cents.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator showed 9 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 stocks with offers that were lower.

Sweet River starts trading with small gain

Swt Riv logo Friday’s activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, resulted in the prices of 5 stocks rising and 8 declining, as 19 securities changed hands, with 4,358,188 units trading, valued at $120,793,953. Sweet River Abattoir, the latest junior market listing, traded for the first time, having been listed today, with 1,000 shares trading, slightly above the IPO price of $3.86.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index lost 295.47 points to 72,387.35 and the JSE All Jamaican Composite index fell 330.39 points, to close at 79,650.40.
Gains| The stocks gaining with last traded prices, at the end of trading in the main market are, Jamaica Money Market Brokers with 19,179 ordinary shares, rising 5 cents to $7, National Commercial Bank had 27,560 shares changing hands, 14 cents higher at $18, Scotia Group put through 153,187 units with a gain of 5 cents to $19.25 and Seprod, had 141,300 shares changing hands, 28 cents higher at $10.80.
JSE 19-9-14 Firm| The stock in the main market to close without a price change at the last traded prices is Sagicor Real Estate Fund with 26,530 units at $7.14
Declines| The last traded prices of stocks with losses at the at the end of trading in the main market are Carreras with 565,400 shares, lost 30 cents to end at $34.35, Grace Kennedy traded 1,514,078 units for $2 loss, to end at $58, Mayberry Investments with 20,000 shares, closed 20 cents lower at $1.50, Proven Investments ordinary stock, traded 49,418 shares and lost 0.99 cents to end at 17US cents and Sagicor Group traded 391,700 shares and lost 55 cents at $9.20.
Preference| Access Financial 9% debenture note, traded 102,000 units at $5 and Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.50% preference share, traded 1,093,000 units at $2.
Junior Market| The JSE Junior Market Index fell 5.84 points to close at 662.23, as 6 stocks traded with 1 advancing and 3 declining.
Gains| Newly listed Sweet River Abattoir, closed with 1,000 shares trading at $3.90 for a 4 cents gain, on the IPO price and is the only stock gaining at the end of trading, in the junior market.
Firm Trades| Stocks in the junior market that traded to close at the same price as the day before are, General Accident with 150,000 shares, ending at $1.50, C2W Music 2,300 units trading at 40 cents and Jamaican Teas with 11,734 shares at $3.30.
Declines| Stocks declining in the junior market at the end of trading, are Honey Bun with 25,802 shares, lost 22 cents to end at $2.12, a 52 weeks’ Low, Lasco Financial with 39,000 shares changing hands, lost 3 cents to end at 95 cents and Lasco Manufacturing with 25,000 shares lost 5 cents to end up at 97 cents.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 6 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 stocks with offers that were lower.

Stocks continue upward move on JSE

Thursday’s activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, resulted in the prices of 9 stocks rising and 3 declining as 24 securities changed hands, resulting in 6,462,363 units trading, valued at $54,606,207.
Main Market| At the close of the market the JSE Market Index gained 321.86 points to 72,682.82 and the JSE All Jamaican Composite index rose 359.90 points to close at 79,980.79.
JSE -18-9-14 Gains| Stocks gaining, with the last traded prices, at the close in the main market are, Jamaica Broilers with 10,500 shares, rising 5 cents to $4.70, Kingston Wharves with 5,250 shares changing hands, lost a cent at $5.01, Sagicor Real Estate Fund had 17,000 shares changing hands, 3 cents higher at $7.14 and Scotia Investments 22,050 shares at 20 cents more at $21.70.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in last traded price are, Cable & Wireless with 3,317 units at 30 cents, Carreras 275,340 shares at $34.65, Jamaica Money Market Brokers with 4,525,000 ordinary shares, closed at $6.95, Jamaica Producers with 788 units ended at $15.08, Proven Investments 5,350 ordinary shares closed at 17.99 US cents, Sagicor Group 570,000 shares closed at $9.75 and Supreme Ventures with 31,000 units at $1.95.
Declines| The last traded prices of stocks with losses, at the at the end of trading in the main market are, Grace Kennedy with 1,623 shares, lost $1 to end at $60, National Commercial Bank traded 256,643 units at $17.86, a loss of 4 cents and Scotia Group with 65,819 shares, closed 6 cents lower at $19.20.
Preference| Eppley 9.5% preference share traded units 12,167 at $6.10, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference share put through 30,000 units at $3.01 and Proven Investments 8% preference share, traded 43,500 units at $5.
Junior Market| The JSE Junior Market Index increased 4.01 points to close at 668.07 as 8 stocks traded with 5 advancing and none declining.
Gains| Stocks recording gains at the end of trading in the junior market are, Blue Power traded 121 units 5 cents higher at $9.05, Dolphin Cove 348 shares closed 30 higher at $8.80, General Accident closed with 239,024 shares and gained 5 cents to $1.50, Lasco Financial 172,400 units, increased 1 cent to 98 cents and Lasco Manufacturing had 16,000 units trading 1 cent higher at $1.02.
Firm Trades| Stocks in the junior market that traded to close at the same price as the day before are, KLE with 127,123 shares at $1 and Lasco Distributors with 32,000 shares changing hands at $1.12.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 7 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 7 stocks with offers that were lower.

Advancing stocks in ascendancy in September

Activity on Wednesday on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, resulted in the prices of 8 stocks rising and 5 declining as 25 securities changed hands, resulting in 2,998,340 units trading, valued at $18,427,427. Stocks advancing were in the ascendancy for the second day in a row and continuing a trend since the start of September when there were only three days when declining stocks were just slightly more than advancing ones and in these case the difference was only one stock.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index gained 281.47 points to 72,360.96 and the JSE All Jamaican Composite index rose 314.73 points to close at 79,620.89.
JSE 17-9-14 Gains| The volume and last traded prices of stocks with gains, at the end of trading in the main market are, Carreras with 2,800 shares trading and rose 5 cents to $34.65, Grace Kennedy had 34,500 shares changing hands, $2 higher at $61, Jamaica Broilers put through 1,562,540 units with a gain of 15 cents to $4.65, Mayberry Investments had 28,620 units trading to close 10 cents higher at $1.70, National Commercial Bank had 4,600 shares changing hands 5 cents higher at $17.90, Scotia Group added 265,860 units, with the price increasing 11 cents to $19.26 and Supreme Ventures 35,665 shares traded with a gain of 15 cents at $1.95.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in price and last traded prices are, Gleaner with 188,597 units to close at $1.05, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 32,015 ordinary shares ended at $6.95, Kingston Wharves 1,252 units traded at $5, Proven Investments with 65,100 share closed at 17.99 US cents, Radio Jamaica with 10,102 shares, closed at $1.04, Sagicor Group with 57,130 shares closed at $9.75 and Scotia Investments had 8,020 units trading at $21.50.
Declines| The volume and last traded prices of stocks with losses at the at the end of trading in the main market are, Desnoes & Geddes with 26,200 shares, lost 10 cents to end at $4.70, Jamaica Producers traded just 2,607 units, lost 32 cents to end at $15.08, a new 52 weeks’ low and Sagicor Real Estate Fund with 22,054 shares, closed with a cent loss at $7.11.
Preference| Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.50% preference share traded 145,700 units at $2 and Proven Investments 8% preference share traded 15,800 at $5.
Junior Market| The JSE Junior Market Index increased 0.36 points to close at 664.06 as 6 stocks traded with 1 advancing and 3 declining.
Gains| The only stock with a gain at the end of trading in the junior market, is Lasco Financial with 254,000 units to gain 2 cents at 97 cents.
Firm Trades| Stocks in the junior market that traded to close at the same price as the day before are Caribbean Producers with 6,145 shares at $2.50 and General Accident 65,000 units at $1.45.
Declines| Stocks declining in the junior market at the end of trading, are Caribbean Cream with 90,000 shares changing hands, lost 1 cent to end at 64 cents, Lasco Distributors with 43,050 shares, the price lost 2 cents to end at $1.12 and Lasco Manufacturing with 30,983 shares closed with a decline of 2 cents at $1.01.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 6 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 8 stocks with offers that were lower.

Advancing stocks beat declining ones 10 to 5

Activity on Tuesday on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, resulted in the prices of 10 stocks rising and 5 declining as 22 securities changed hands, resulting in 2,709,606 units trading, valued at $13,735,300.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index gained 281.11 points to 72,079.49 and the JSE All Jamaican Composite index rose 314.34 points to close at 79,306.16.
JSE 16-9-14 Gains| The volume and last traded prices of stocks with gains, at the end of trading in the main market are, Carreras with 36,263 shares trading, with a 10 cents rise to $34.60, Desnoes & Geddes had 300 shares changing hands, 10 cents higher at $4.80, Proven Investments put through 1,000 units with a gain of 0.74 US cents to 17.99 US cents, Sagicor Group had 965,175 shares changing hands at 45 cents higher to $9.75, Sagicor Real Estate Fund with 11,715 units, increased 2 cents to $7.12 and Scotia Group 36,455 shares traded with a gain of 5 cents at $19.15.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in price, with volume and last traded prices are, Gleaner with 500 units closed at $1.05, Grace Kennedy 3,348 shares ended at $59, Jamaica Broilers had 2,000 units trading at $4.50, Jamaica Money Market Brokers ordinary share closed with 15,330 shares at $6.95 and Jamaica Producers closed with 500 shares at $15.40.
Declines| The volume and last traded prices of stocks with losses at the at the end of trading in the main market are, Kingston Wharves with 24,915 shares, lost 25 cents to end at $5, Mayberry Investments traded just 500 units at $1.60 for a 10 cents loss and National Commercial Bank with only 1,200 shares, closed with a 15 cents loss at $17.85.
Preference| Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference share traded 103,000 units, for a cent increase at $3.01.
Junior Market| The JSE Junior Market Index increased 1.54 points to close at 663.70 as 7 stocks traded with 3 advancing and 2 declining.
Gains| Stocks recording gains at the end of trading in the junior market are, Caribbean Producers traded 3,855 units with a gain of 14 cents to $2.50, Consolidated Bakeries with 910,840 units, closed 5 cents higher at 85 cents and Lasco Distributors had 177,798 units trading with a 1 cent gain at $1.14.
Firm Trades| Stocks in the junior market that traded to close at the same price as the day before are Caribbean Cream traded 22,760 shares at 65 cents and General Accident 320,000 units at $1.45.
Declines| Stocks declining in the junior market at the end of trading, are Lasco Financial with 37,000 shares changing hands lost 3 cents to end at 95 cents and Lasco Manufacturing with 35,152 shares 1 cents to end at $1.03.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 6 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 6 stocks with offers that were lower.

Three 7s clashed Monday on the JSE

What will happen when the three 7s clash? Whatever, the facts are that three 7s did clash at the end of trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, on Monday, as the prices of 7 stocks rose, 7 declined and 7 held firm, as 21 securities changed hands, resulting in 8,573,262 units valued at $6,218,041 being exchanged. Trading activity left the two main indices sharply down, at the close of the market.
JSE sum 15-9-14 Main Market| The JSE Market Index dived 1,027.02 points to 71,798.38 and the JSE All Jamaican Index fell 1,148.40 points to 78,991.82, with Scotia Group falling by 90 cents and Grace Kennedy by $1.50.
Gains| The volume and last traded prices of stocks with gains, at the end of trading in the main market are, Berger Paints trading 1,800 shares to close with a gain of 2 cents at $1.62, Cable & Wireless with 5,975,977 shares, gained 2 cents to 30 cents, Kingston Wharves with 18,475 units changing hands, gained 24 cents at $5.25 and Proven Investments ordinary, traded 16,900 units to gain 0.15 US cent to end at 17.25 US cents.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a price change are, Desnoes & Geddes with 5,000 shares changing hands and closed at $4.70, Sagicor Group 7,000 shares ending up closing at $9.30 and Supreme Ventures 2,500 shares closed at $1.80.
Declines| The volume and last traded prices of stocks with losses at the at the end of trading in the main market are, Caribbean Cement 13,423 shares, closed down 15 cents at $2.55, Carreras 20,318 shares changing hands resulted in 25 cents lost, to $34.50, Grace Kennedy had a mere 250 units trading but the price dropped, $1.50 to $59, Jamaica Broilers put through 100,571 shares while losing 2 cents, to end at $4.50, Jamaica Money Market Brokers had 49,782 ordinary shares closing 5 cents down at $6.95 and Scotia Group with 11,600 shares, closed down 90 cents to $19.10.
Preference| Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference share, traded 20,000 units at $3 and their 8.50% preference share put in 25,000 units, 5 cents lower at $3.45.
Junior Market| The JSE Junior Market Index rose 1.67 points to close at 662.16, as 6 securities traded, with 3 advancing and none declining.
Gains| Stocks recording gains at the end of trading in the junior market are, Consolidated Bakeries with 1,816,000 units changing hands, 5 cents higher to close at 80 cents, General Accident with 200,000 shares changing hands and closed with a gain of 5 cents to $1.45 and Lasco Distributors in trading 210,690 units put on a cent to $1.13.
Firm Trades| Stocks in the junior market that traded to close at the same price as the day before are, Jamaican Teas that had 11,143 shares trading at $3.30 at the close, Knutsford Express with 1,812 shares, ended at $5 and Lasco Manufacturing ended up with 65,021 units at $1.04 at the close.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 5 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 8 stocks with offers that were lower.

The best time to buy & sell stocks

J-stks1The best times to sell stocks, is generally, in late April to mid-May and the best times to start buying is during the summer months. The Jamaican stock market bottoms and starts to move upwards in more summers than at any other time in its history and this goes back to the start of the creation of the market index, back in the early 1970s.
The above two periods have been very visible when the market movements are analyzed from the start of the local stock market. No wonder the simple adage, “sell in May and go away” has been bandied around as what appears a casual investment comment, there is more than just talk as the facts support it. History suggests that it really should read, sell in May rest awhile but start your buying in July. For 2014 prices on the Jamaica stock market declined a bit from its earlier 2014 high, with several stocks hitting 52 weeks’ lows into the early summer months. The decline was taking place against the back ground of an increase in interest rates and slippage in the value of the Jamaican dollar, encouraging some investors to exist the local stock market for US dollar based investments. At a glance to the casual observer it may appear that this is a negative trend that would take the market much lower, it did not do happen. The history of the market as well as technical assessment of it suggest, otherwise. The local bear market has gone on for as long as any other and much more than what has been a 4-6 cycle of decline before a bull market sets in. When markets go through long periods of hibernation, investors lose interest, as they don’t see the market turning anytime soon, but that usually is the genesis of a new bull run. Demand declines but so is supply. If companies report improving results then the smart investors quietly picks up stocks cheaply waiting for the inevitable up turn.