Perception of present and future conditions is down in the business sector, according to data of a survey, released by Bank of Jamaica. The survey which was done in August showed a deterioration compared to June.
In the recent survey, there was a marked moderation in both the perception of present and future business conditions among respondents relative to the previous survey. The indices showed current business conditions at 110.2 versus June’s 121.1 and 102.5 in May. The perception of future business conditions as measured by the index declined to 119.4, from 129.9 in June. The level is still ahead of the May 2014 outturn, of 117.9.
The perceptions of present and future business conditions, continue to show a general upward trend since the low of 47.5 percent in April 2013 survey, for current business condition and 93.4 for future business conditions. The indices peaked at 157.9 in December 2011 for current business conditions and 148.8 in March 2013 for future business conditions.
Jamaica’s Economy grows 1.8% in Q2
Agriculture was the star performer in Jamaica’s growth in the second quarter
The Statin report goes on to state, this performance reflects an improvement of 6.3 percent in the Goods Producing industries and a 0.5 percent increase in the Services industries.In the June quarter, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing grew 16.6 percent, Manufacture 4.1 percent and Construction 1.2 percent. Mining & Quarrying industry declined by 0.4 percent.
Manufacture benefited from a 111.9 percent increase in the production of sugar and a 26.1 percent growth in petroleum refining. Higher output levels in Construction resulted mainly from an increase in expenditure on road work activities, including the continued work on the North-South leg of Highway 2000. Lower production levels in the Mining &Quarrying industry was due to a fall in alumina production, resulting from the stoppage of activities at one of the alumina refining plant. However, crude bauxite production increased by 13.3 percent.
Increased output was recorded for all industries within the Services industries with the exception of the Producers of Government Services, down 0.2 percent and Electricity & Water Supply, down 1.6 percent. Higher output levels were recorded for; Hotels & Restaurants 2.3 percent, Other Services 1.1 percent, Transport, Storage & Communication 1 percent, Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities 0.6 percent. The sharp jump in sugar production in the second which is not in line with increased production with the overall 2014 sugar crop, meant that growth in the first quarter would have been negatively affected by a late take off of the cane crop in 2014 which benefited the second quarter.
Trade deficit improvement loses steam in June
Jamaica’s trade deficit declined marginally during the first six months of 2014 ending at US$2.18 billion, compared to US$2.19 billion in the 2013 period, a decline of 0.3 percent, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reported, today.
For the period up to May the trade deficit was US$125 million. Trade balance in June effectively wiped out the small positive gains to May.
For the six months period Jamaica imported goods valued at US$2.9 billion, a decrease of US$133 million or 4.4 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Total exports for the six months to June 2014, fell by US$125 million to US$729 million, down from US$854 million in the 2013 period.
The decline in imports was due mainly to a reduction in Mineral Fuels, Chemicals, Beverages & Tobacco, Animal & Vegetable Oils Fats.Imports of “Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods” decreased during the 2014 review period, and were valued at US$1.77 billion, compared to US$1.97 billion in the 2013 period, a 9.8 percent decrease.
Crude Oil imports amounted to US$413 million, moving down from US$451 million in the similar period of 2013, a decrease of 8.4 percent. Imports of Capital Goods (Excl. Motor Cars) increase from US$243 million in the 2013 period to US$264 million in the current year to June.
Little gain from NCB’s KWH sale
National Commercial Bank will collect $3 billion for the sale of its 32.59 percent investment in Kingston Wharves, which it executed today, on the Jamaica Stock exchange at $6.50 per share. But the banking group will not see a boost in its profit from the transaction although the shares were purchased at much lower price than what they have been sold at.
At the end of September last year, the investment was booked at $2,705,495 as the group accounted for their share of profit from the time the investment was made some years ago shortly after the banking was taken over by Lee Chin the majority owner of the bank. Since then Kingston Wharves reported profit of $734 million of which $240 million would be attributable to the bank’s holding. That would bring the amount booked up to June this year to $2.945 billion leaving a small difference which is less than the amounts of profit they would have booked had the sale not taken place.
The group will benefit going forward, from funds that it can either lend or invest in other areas. Jamaica will benefit from some foreign exchange inflows, as a result of the sale.
JPG ups Kingston Wharves holding, NCB out
NCB Capital Markets purchased 466,435,712 on behalf of a client. Shares held by the NCB group were part of the transaction. NCB Jamaica Limited had 360,807,145 or 28.27 percent of the company and NCB Capital Markets Ltd. A/C 2231 had 105,283,757 or 8.25 percent. Steven Gooden of NCB Capital Market only comment is “a release will be made after the close of the Jamaica Stock Exchange today”.
The transaction is clearly not one of a name change as that would have been done as a block transaction. As a result of the transaction, Seaboard is acquiring 21 percent and Jamaica Producers 11.59 percent of the outstanding Kingston Wharves shares. Producers will now own approximately 42 percent of the company. Jeffery Hall CEO of Jamaica Producers confirm the groups interest in the deal and advised of a release after trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, to provide the full details.
Jamaica Producers Group already owns 431,777,188 or 33.83 percent of the company and would end up with just over 70 percent of the company. The transaction which was mostly done at $6.50 per share or $1.49 above Tuesday closing price cost $3 billion and would effectively trigger a compulsory takeover offer to the minority shareholders if it was all purchased by Jamaica Producers. The transaction took place in three main blocks that were all done at $6.50,and include 300,345,000 units costing 1,952,242,500, 60,462,145 shares costing $393,003,943 and 105,283,757 at a cost of $684,344,421. Apparently, the largest block was sold to more than one party to the transaction and would have been the reason for the split up of it. This arrangement could mean that Jamaica Producer’s Group would not be a majority shareholder and therefore not trigger the take over clause. the increase in the price exceeds the 15 percent rule of the JSE but the stock had closed Tuesday with a bid of $5.75 which was a set up to allow for the traded at todays price.
In 2012,Jamaica Producers had increased their holdings in Kingston Wharves when they bought Three Hundred and Fifty Seven Million Five Hundred and Fifty Thousand (357,550,000) ordinary shares of KWL at a price of $5 per share to help fund the company’s expansion and modernization in pursuit of increased business expected to flow form the Panama canal expansion.
the transaction will boost NCB 2014 earnings as it comes days ahead of the bank’s year end and whatever gains there will be, will be in the incorporated into the results.
Are Jamaican stocks on the verge of a breakout?
Stock markets can be like tsunamis, the change in the current is not seen as it moves out of site until it’s time for all to see what’s been happening. That is one reason investors are often advised to invest in stocks that enjoy good profit performances, as there is no certainty when markets will move in one direction or another.
Profit drives stock prices, one only has to wait on the pay day, which will surely come. What does this have to do with the local stock market? Many investors wrote off any chance that the local market would have any recovery after the spring decline coming against the strong demand for foreign exchange, not aware of the market’s history.
A critical point, investors in local stocks should note, is that the best times to start buying stocks is during the summer months. The Jamaican stock market bottoms and starts to move upwards in more summers than at any other time in its history, this goes back to the start of the creation of the market index, back in the early 1970s. For 2014, prices on the Jamaica stock market declined a bit from its earlier 2014 high, with several stocks hitting 52 weeks’ lows into the early summer months, with the Main market hitting a low on June 23 and the junior market on August 4.
Recent developments| The average person may look to changes in the market indices to guide them in what is happening in the market. And yet others will wait until the news headline say stocks are rising. The problem with this approach is that indices movements cloud what may be important shifts in values and prices and when the main news highlights what is happening in the market much of the gains are gone. From the end of August to September 19th this year, the all Jamaica index rose by 1 percent while for August it remained flat. The junior market index rose 3 percent in September so far, but was flat for August. But something else is happening that bode well for continuation of an upward move of the market. More importantly, upward move for some stock prices. In September up the 19th on 53 percent of trading days, the all Jamaica index rose while for the junior market it is 60 percent and with the month not ended the ratio could improve. In August the ratios are 42 percent and 48 percent respectively. The advance decline ratio tells a far better story than the indices movements. The main market had only 7 days when the advance decline ratio was negative and so far for September that number is just 4 with 7 trading days to go before the month ends.
Interest Rates| Rising interest rates drive money out of stocks into other investments, the reverse is also true falling rates drive money into stocks to position for better returns in the stock market. Interest rates on government Treasury bills have been declining since May and flows in the forex market are buoyant with the local dollar remaining stable. Technically, the main market is seeing the short term moving average on the verge of crossing the medium term moving average, a bullish sign. Importantly, many listed companies have been posted some attractive results for 2014 that is supportive of an upward push in their stock price. These are positives that will help the market.
Jamaica’s inflation up 5% year to August
The inflation rate for Jamaica based on Consumer Price Index was 1.1 percent In August 2014 which is better that the 1.4 percent out turn in July and for the year to August is 5 percent.
This inflation rate for the month was chiefly the result of a 2.7 percent upward movement in the index for the division of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages.” The index for the group ‘Food’ increased by 2.8 per cent as production levels of some agricultural crops declined due to the continued drought conditions across the island, This resulted in higher prices for the classes ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ and ‘Fruit’ which rose by 9.8 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively,” Statin Said in their release on the inflation data.
Jamaica’s trade deficit falls, March’s better
Jamaica enjoyed a reduction in its trade for the first four months of this year, compared with the same period in 2013. The trade deficit amounted to US$1.34 billion, down from US$1.46 billion in 2013.
The country imported goods valued at US$1.86 billion for the January to April 2014 period, a decrease of US$199 million or 9.7 percent and exported US$77 million or 12.9 percent less for the January to April 2014 period, representing a big improvement over the change to March. Total exports for the 4 months came in at S$521 million, down from US$598 million in the similar period in 2013.
For the three months to March this year, imports fell by US$281 million and exports were down US$111 million to US$358 million, down from US$469 million in the 2013.
11 stocks rose as Market index jumps
Broker house, Scotia Investments was the only buyer of the 875,724 Scotia Group shares that change hands in Friday’s trading, on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. The prices of the stock rose, to close at $20, but traded as high as $20.99.
In the overall market, the prices of 11 stocks rose and 8 declined, as 26 securities changed hands, resulting in 5,240,852 shares trading, valued at $35,553,505.
Main Market| The main indices closed sharply higher in Friday’s trading as heavily weighted Scotia Group jumped to close higher by the end of trading. The JSE Market Index jumped by 1,598.01 points to 71,711.80 and the JSE All Jamaican Composite index climbed 1,786.85 points to close at 78,895.01.
Gains| Stocks with gains, volume and last traded prices, at the end of trading in the main market, are Cable & Wireless with 210,772 shares up 4 cents to 30 cents, Carreras 317,256 units, gaining 15 cents to $34, Jamaica Broilers 308 units, up 4 cents to $4.61, Jamaica Money Market Brokers with 10,000 ordinary shares, up by 5 cents to $7, National Commercial Bank that released results after trading on Thursday, closed up by 6 cents at $18.06 while trading 51,599 shares. The stock closed with the bid of $18.11 to buy 116,978 units. Pan Jamaican Investment with 1,313 stock units, gained 8 cents to $48.10, Sagicor Real Estate Fund traded 10,000 units and gained 1 cent to $6.36 and Scotia Group gained $1.30 to $20.
Firm| The stocks with volume and last traded prices in the main market to close without a price change, are Caribbean Cement with 1,600 shares at $2.50, Desnoes & Geddes 646 shares at $4, Jamaica Producers with 5,367 shares at $17.51, Sagicor Group 121,247 units at $9, Seprod 1,276 shares at $10.50 and Supreme Ventures 12,020 units at $1.95.
Declines| The stocks with losses, volume and last traded prices at the end of trading in the main market, are Gleaner with 10,300 shares, down a cent at $1.11, Grace Kennedy with 5,000 shares, lost $1.05 to end at $55, Hardware & Lumber 800 units, down 15 cents at $9, Mayberry Investments 4,080 units at $1.55, for a 1 cent fall.
Preference| Jamaica Public Service 5% C preference share traded 42,102 units and was up by a cent to $3.
Junior Market| The JSE Junior Market Index declined by 21.99 points to close at 627.28 as 7 stocks traded with 2 advancing and 4 declining.
Gains| Stocks recording gains at the end of trading in the junior market, with the closing prices, are Blue Power 5,320 shares and the price was up by 5 cents to $9.10 and Lasco Manufacturing with 3,091,640 shares the price gained 10 cents to $1 but it traded at a 52 weeks low of 85 cents before recovering by the end of trading.
Firm Trades| The stock in the junior market that traded to close at the same price as the day before is General Accident with 99,982 shares at $1.46.
Declines| Stocks declining in the junior market at the end of trading with the closing prices are, Caribbean Producers with 430,000 shares with a 5 cents loss to $2.45, Honey Bun with only 100 shares to fall by 60 cents to $2.30. This stock was poised to fall sharply after it released disappointing third quarter results and the offer gradually melted away, as bids were at very low levels. Lasco Distributors with 25,000 shares lost 9 cents to end at a new 52 weeks low of $1.10 and Lasco Financial with 7,400 units was down 8 cent to 92 cents, after the company posted a 20 percent increase in its first quarter results to June.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 7 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 5 stocks with offers that were lower.
NCB Profit grows set for $4.80 EPS for year
National Commercial Bank reported impressive results for the nine months ended June 2014 compared with the nine months ended June last year. Net profit reported is $8.8 billion, an increase of 29 percent, or $2 billion for the nine months. For the latest quarter, net profit of $2.9 billion was made, an increase of 29 percent, from $2.27 billion in June 2013.
Earnings per stock unit amounted $3.56 and is set to get to $4.80 per share for the full year. Gross revenues of $42 billion increased 17 percent, or $6 billion from $36 billion generated in 2013.
As impressive as the results may appear two things have to be borne in mind, one is that in 2013 a large charge was incurred flowing from government of Jamaica debt swap, and the segment accounts show a mixed picture with just four out of the seven segments contributed to the improvement, as the others, recorded declines for the nine months. On the plus, was a $550 million reduction in loan loss provision, from $1.78 billion to $1.24 billion, with this year’s June quarter being $357 million or roughly half of what it was in 2013.
Staff cost a bit item, is up a bit, year over year, but part of that was due to the general insurance company coming into the group, for a part of the year. A more telling picture is seen form the quarter over quarter figures of $2.86 billion versus $2.7 billion for June 2013 quarter, which was marginally up.
Loans| Loans and advances, totaling $152 billion net of provision for credit losses at June 2014, grew by 12 percent, or $16.8 billion, compared to the loan portfolio as at June 30, 2013. Non-performing loans totaled $7.8 billion as at June 2014 ($6.6 billion at June 2013) and represented 5 percent of the gross loans compared to 4.8 percent as at June last year.
Deposits| Customer deposits were $205 billion, up 19 percent or $33 billion over the prior year. The increase was driven by growth in fixed deposits and savings portfolios, which increased by 65 percent and 10 percent respectively, over the prior year.
Capital| The Group’s stockholders’ equity stood at $78 billion, up 12 percent over the prior year.
The stock traded last at $18 and puts the PE ratio, at just 3.7 times the current year’s results. NCB declared another dividend of 35 cents per share, bringing the total in the last twelve months to $1.18. NCB remains a strong IC Insider buy rated stock.
