GOJ Treasury bill heading to 4%

Government of Jamaica Treasury bill rates seems headed to 4 percent by early 2018 if current trends on inflation, exchange rate stability and world oil prices hold.
Treasuries hit just over nine percent for the 182 days instrument in 2014. The rates declined thereafter, falling to a low just below six percent in late 2015 and moved sideways to October last year and then rose to six and half percent by December. Rates at the January and February auctions fell.
In contrast to falling rates for the 182 days T-bills, rates on the short-term bills rose at the February auction. The 91 days T-bill closed at 5.92%, up from 5.62% in January while the 30 days ended at 6.08% up from 5.64% in December.
The trend seems clear with inflation falling to 1.7 percent last year and running at 2.6 percent to January compared to same period in 2016 signalling room for much lower rates. The chart of Treasury rate trends, points to a declining trend with the two blue lines indicating the upper and lower band.
During 2016 inflation was negatively affected b a 7 percent decline in the value of the Jamaican dollar against the United States currency, that would have contributed to most of the inflation except the portion relating to increased taxes, imposed last year. Devaluation if any, should be more moderate in 2017, as foreign exchange flows continue to be strong, therefore inflation should moderate with the absence of devaluation of the local dollar.
The trendline suggests rates on T bills falling to 4 percent by late 2017 or early 2018. The chart is also showing that rates could sit at resistance around the 5.7 percent level for awhile but the downward slopping trend lines are pointing to lower rates by the latest August, with softening world oil prices and little or no devaluation of the Jamaican dolllar to spike inflation.

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