RJR Communications Group heads the 2020 Main Market IC TOP 10, with potential gains over the next twelve months of 200 percent at a PE ratio of 20 times projected earnings per share for 2021 of 20 cents that could rise to 25 cents or more. IC Insider.com projects earnings for the year to March 2020 to end at 10 cents per share for a PE ratio of 12.5.
Results for the media group for the nine months to December 2019, was vastly better than for the similar period in 2018, resulting in the stock price rebounding from its yearly low of 80 cents by more than doubling the December 2018 price. For the rest of the 2021 fiscal year, not all things may go well with the level of dislocation to the local economy arising from business closures currently in place.
Revenue growth for the nine months to December increased 3 percent over a similar period last year, with the group recording profit of $141 million compared with just $36 million for the same period in 2018. Importantly, television brought in 11 percent more revenues in the critical December quarter than for the similar period in 2018 while radio and newsprint brought in just two percent more. The 2019 results are the best they have been, going back to 2014. Improvement in revenues is better than it appears income for the previous year included advertising revenues related to the broadcasting of World Cup football.
Importantly, while many may associate the company with old media, the group is forging ahead with new media offerings and they are slowly building out their international offerings that will bring in added revenues going forward. RJR Group will benefit from the spending on the country’s upcoming general election due by the first quarter of 2021. The continued growth in the local economy is a major factor behind the recovery, with revenues growing as demand increased for the group’s products.
RJR shareholders at the 2019 AGM at the Jamaica Pegasus
While the current period will be challenging for some of their advertisers who may cut back on spending, the future is positive for the group as they grow their product offerings locally and overseas and increase revenues. On the cost side, the group has been chipping away at excess cost, but there is still more room for further enhanced efficiency.
One advantage that the group has is the low marginal cost of generating income that allows most of the added revenue generated, to flow to the bottom-line as an of the high degree of fixed cost.
The group’s gross cash flow amounted to $430 million for the nine months, with depreciation contributing $211 million. On a negative front, receivables grew by $426 million for the year to December and $300 million in the December quarter. Both are well above the growth in revenues for the year and the December quarter. In March, a related party, a senior manager and a director bought shares in the group, although not very large volumes.
Major uncertainties abound about the local and global economy and how each company may be affected. It is not possible to determine the exact fall out from the crisis and the impact on company earnings. Accordingly, actual earnings could vary materially from IC Insider.com’s forecast. In this regard, investors need to be alert to new information that will come to the fore on an ongoing basis and be prepared to adjust their investment decisions as time passes.
The Jamaica stock market suffered sustained pressure during March, leading to one of the most rapid falls in stock prices in the history of the market. In the past week, prices have bounced with the Main Market putting in strong gains on Thursday and Friday, but the market index is down by a sizeable 29.5 percent year to date.
The current year has changed markedly as the Corona Virus impact on countries worldwide has been significantly disruptive, inflicting significant damage to the individuals, businesses and economies. With the wipeout of fiscal deficits and debt to GDP set to be below 90 percent, the Jamaican economy is in a far better place than at the time of the 2008 crisis that severely tested the country and led to many measures that severely affected the economy from then until 2016.
The Group consists of Caribbean Producers, Dolphin Cove, Everything Fresh and Express Catering. Entertainment company Main Event and restaurant operator KLE Group will be hurt from patrons staying home as well as fewer tourists visiting Montego Bay and patronizing the restaurant in that town. Some major contributors to the tourism market are Grace, Jamaica Broilers and Wisynco. The results for some companies are hit by falling stock and bond prices. The results for the 2020 first quarter will show the impact of the recent market decline. The latter includes JMMB Group, Proven, NCB Financial Group, Barita Investments, VMBS Investments, Jamaican Teas, QWI Investments and Sagicor Group. Banks may have to increase loan loss provisions as businesses encounter cash flow problems and defaulting on loan payments.
The past week saw significant fluctuations in prices of several stocks, leading to notable declines in the market indices of the Junior and Main Market and resulting in some changes in the TOP 10 stocks.
During the week, Jamaican Teas announced a three for one stock split, subject to approval by shareholders.
Forecasted earnings and PE ratio for the current fiscal year are in determining potential gains. The stocks are ranked in the order of likely increases, with the highest-ranked, being the most attractive. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.
Pulse Investments announced expansion into residential real estate development for sales and the retention of some units. The stock was added to the Main Market TOP 10 in 2019 and is on the verge of moving out, with increased buying interest. KLE Group announced the buy-out of the Tacks and Records restaurant in Montego Bay that will add significantly to revenues and boost profitability. KLE is one to watch. Proven Investments announced another stock offering, this time to the wider public. The move with help to boost broader interest in the stock as it pulls in new shareholders.
The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 21.2 and the Junior Market 14.6, based on current 2019 earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 9.4 with the Main Market 10.2.
The average projected gain for the IC TOP 10 stocks is 177 percent for the Junior Market and 132 percent for JSE Main Market based mostly on 2019 earnings.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March next year. Forecasted earnings and PE ratio for the current fiscal year are in determining potential gains. The projected increase for each stock is ranked, with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.
Still, they were replaced this week, by Honey Bun and tTech, in at number 9 and 10 positions, respectively. There were no changes to the TOP 10 listing for Main Market stocks.
Forecasted earnings and PE ratio for the current fiscal year are in determining potential gains. Possible gains for each stock are ranked in descending order, with the highest-ranked being the most attractive. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.
The JSE Main Market TOP 10 had just stock leaving with 
Radio Jamaica still holds on to the lead for Main Market stocks, with an expected increase of 236 percent, followed by Pulse Investments in the number two spot with projected growth of 205 percent and Sygnus US dollar-denominated stock with likely gains of 186 percent, is next.
Projected earnings, along with the PE ratio for each company’s current fiscal year, are used in determining potential gains with the likely gains ranked in descending order with highest-ranked being the most attractive. Future values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.
the Junior Market has made a sharp break out of a downward sloping channel that started after the market peaked in Mid-August. It now seems to be heading higher, with a healthy break out of the channel.
