PNM is now predicted to take 23 of the 41 seats in the Trinidad and Tobago in today’s general elections. They are leading in 23 seats at 12 pm in the twin island state with more than 50 percent of the votes counted.
Most pollsters predicted the PNM would take the elections within the range of victory now that seems likely. A few pollster called it wrong for the winner. The election outcome is essentially based on racial origin of the population with the PNM winning mostly in areas with black population and the UNC winning in the centre of the country with mostly Indian population. The outgoing government in 2010 won 29 out of the 41 seats that make up the parliament.
PNM wins T&T elections with 23 seats
September 7, 2015 by
Remittance inflows flat in May
September 7, 2015 by
Total remittance inflows for Jamaica for May this year was just barely up over May 2014, increasing by less than a million dollars to end the month at US$190 million over the corresponding month last year.
Net remittance flows did better, with US$175 million realized, an increase of US$4 million or 2 percent over the corresponding period of 2014. For the first five months of 2015, total remittance inflows amounted to US$905 million, an increase of US$18 million or 2 percent over the similar 2014 period. Net remittances for the first 5 months of the year were US$812 million, an increase of US$16 million or 2 percent over the 2014 period, Bank of Jamaica reported.
Confused T&T poll findings
September 6, 2015 by
The latest information out of the twin island state of Trinidad and Tobago, show a mixed picture for the general election outcome on Monday. The only consensus is that the results will be close. That contrast with poll findings from a survey conducted by H.H.B. & Associates carried out on behalf of Guardian Media and published last week Sunday.
According to that poll, the People’s National Movement (PNM) is leading the race in voter support with just eight days to go before the election, with 37 per cent of respondents said the PNM, while 30 per cent said the PP/UNC. The undecided respondents accounted for 31 per cent, while two per cent said Independent Liberal Party. These findings are exactly in line with recent election turn out which is just under 70 percent, with the undecided not ending up voting.
According to a report by the Guardian today, H.H.B & Associates, which conducted the Guardian Media Ltd (GML) poll, is projecting a PNM victory, with the opposition party taking 22 seats and the PP capturing 19. 
The newspaper did not say if the forecast was based on new data. The poll numbers of last week is unlikely to result in such a close race. IC Insider, last week forecasted that based on the above support, the PNM would win with 31 seats, if the poll numbers held up.
The Guardian is also stating that the latest, Nigel Henry/Solution by Simulation (SBS) pre-election tracking poll suggests a close race between the ruling People’s Partnership and the opposition People’s National Movement (PNM) in the general election tomorrow. The poll suggests that both parties are capable of winning 18 seats with five constituencies still too close to call. Poll results project that the winning party is likely to capture 21 or 22 seats.
This finding contrasted with the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (Nacta) poll by Dr Vishnu Bisram, which predicted yesterday that the PP would win 21 seats, the PNM 18 seats, with two marginal seats up in the air. The UWI Constitutional Affairs and Parliamentary Studies Unit (Capsu) poll released last week also found that the PP is leading in five marginal seats in the election race. 
Solution by Simulation tracking poll by Nigel Henry projected yesterday that the PP was leading by 38 per cent, the PNM had 36 per cent, and 25 per cent were undecided. That would result in a voter turnout of 74 percent, a level that Trinidad and Tobago has not seen since 1961.
In the 2010 elections, the turnout was 69.45 percent, 66.03 percent in 2007 and 69.64 percent in 2002, next closet to these was 1991 with 65.76 percent. Based on the pattern of recent years it would be surprising if the turnout exceeded 70 percent and that could make a huge difference to the final election results.
Dr Vishnu Bisram, in his Nacta poll, said the percentage of undecided voters had shrunk considerably from a month ago, from “a high of 31 per cent to just six percent now,” and they could very well decide the outcome of the election.
GOJ collects more spends less
September 1, 2015 by
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The government of Jamaica spent less on interest, capital projects and collected more tax revenues but received less grants from April to July this year.
This development resulted in the actual deficit being $8 billion less than budgeted.
Tax revenues were $3 billion more than planned and grants $1.5 billion less than expected but interest cost mainly of foreign debt resulted in savings of $4 billion while $4.3 billion less was expended on the capital projects. The critical primary surplus was $4 billion ahead of forecast of $23.7 billion.
31 seats for PNM poll suggests
August 31, 2015 by
The voters in the twin island state of Trinidad and Tobago go to the polls on Monday, September 7 in general election to elect a new government with polls showing a possible massive victory for the main opposition party, the PNM. The incumbent, the People’s Party Coalition – United National Congress (PP/UNC) won the last election with 29 out of the 41 seats that makes up the parliament. A recent opinion poll shows the governing party trailing the main opposition party by a large percentage.
If the actual results of the elections are close to what the poll indicates, it would amount to a massive victory for the PNM, with approximately 54 percent to the (PP/UNC) 43 percent of the popular votes. The PNM is likely to garner 31 or 76 percent of the 41 seats up for grabs, IC Insider calculations show. Two of the 31 seats are very marginal and could go either way.
The recent poll was conducted by H.H.B. & Associates was carried out on behalf of Guardian Media Ltd. According to the poll results, the People’s National Movement (PNM) is leading the race in voter support with just eight days to go before the election with 37 per cent of respondents said the PNM, while 30 per cent said the PP/UNC. The undecided respondents accounted for 31 per cent, while two per cent said Independent Liberal Party.
The poll was conducted between August 22 and 28, through the regional corporations in Trinidad. A random sample of 1,000 persons were surveyed.
Polls suggest big win for T&T PNM
August 30, 2015 by
The voters in the twin island state of Trinidad and Tobago go to the polls on Monday, September 7 in general election to elect a new government. The incumbent, the People’s Party Coalition – United National Congress (PP/UNC) has been in government since May 2010 is said to be trailing in recent public opinion polls conducted by H.H.B. & Associates Ltd for Guardian Media Ltd.
According to the poll results, the People’s National Movement (PNM) is leading the race in voter support with just eight days to go before the election, with 37 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the PNM, while 30 per cent said they will vote PP/UNC. The undecided respondents accounted for 31 per cent, while two per cent said they supported the Independent Liberal Party.
The poll was conducted between August 22 and 28 using a random sample of 1,000 person.
If the actual results of the elections are close to what the polls indicate it would amount to a massive victory for the PNM with approximately 54 percent of the to the (PP/UNC) 43 percent of the popular votes.
Big drop in Business Confidence
August 28, 2015 by
The perception of present and future business conditions fell sharply in the latest survey conduction on behalf of Bank of Jamaica in July. Deterioration was registered in both surveys among respondents relative to the previous survey.
Notably, the index of present business conditions fell sharply to 130.3 from 166.9 in the previous survey. The index of future business conditions declined to 135.2 from 148.3 in the previous survey.
The result for July is the worse since September 2014 at 123.6 for current conditions and August 2014 for future business conditions at 119.4. Both confidence levels have broken the upward movement by breaking the trend line going back to October 2013, a negative sign, suggesting the likelihood of further declines ahead. The negative development seems to be showing up in the performance of the local stock market which has stagnated over the 108,000 points on the all Jamaica Index, in spite of a fall in interest rates initiated by the country’s central bank.
Notwithstanding, the declines in the recent indices of perceptions of present and future business conditions, they have displayed a general upward trend since the April 2013 survey, bank of Jamaica stated in the report. Of course that upward trend is now broken as indicated above.
The drop in the confidence levels is probably tied in with the depreciation of the Jamaican dollar in during June and July. At the start of June the exchange between the Jamaican dollar and the US was $116.13 reaching $116.98 at the end of the month and closed out July at $117.42.
Treasury bill rates continue slide
August 20, 2015 by
Interest rates fell in the latest issues of Treasury bill that were on offer on Wednesday continuing a slow decent since the start of 2015 but a much steeper decline form March last year. The two offerings for $400m each, attracted bids for over $940 million each with a total of 1.93 billion.
The 91 days instrument cleared at an average of 6.352 percent down from July’s average of 6.44 percent with bids between 5.93 percent to 6.4304 percent were fully accepted while the 182 days yielded an average 6.49 percent a decline from July’s average of 6.60 percent with bids between 6.2 to 6.55 percent being fully allotted.
The declines come against the back ground of Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) 0.25 percent cut in its 30 days CD rates effective on Tuesday. There is no indication in the Treasury bill average rate that the BOJ move had any noticeable impact, although the rate of decline this time around is steeper than the previous three.
Bank of Jamaica cuts interest rate
August 18, 2015 by
The interest rate offered by Bank of Jamaica on its benchmark 30-day Certificate of Deposit will be reduced to 5.25 per cent from 5.50 per cent effective 18 August, Bank of Jamaica announced on Monday.
According to the central bank, “macroeconomic vulnerabilities continue to be reduced in the context of the strong implementation of reforms under the Economic Reform Programme. Annual inflation is expected to be within the 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent target range by the end of the fiscal year and is projected to decline in the medium term. This assessment is supported by continuation of low international oil prices, a post-drought recovery in agriculture output and continued reduction in inflation expectations. In addition, the current account of the balance of payments is improving, net international reserves are rising, the Government’s debt ratios have improved markedly, and the Government has demonstrated commitment to a strong fiscal stance”. The rates applicable to the Bank’s lending facilities that are linked to this policy rate will correspondingly fall by 25 basis points.
Inflation jump in July
August 18, 2015 by
Cost of food jumped sharply in July
Higher rates for electricity, water and sewage were items helping in the inflationary push but the division of ‘Transport’, recorded a decrease of 2.7 per cent, which tempered the upward movement of the overall index. This decline was due largely to 16.7 per cent decrease in adult bus fares for passengers in the Greater Kingston
Metropolitan Area taking Jamaica Urban Transit Company (JUTC) buses.Inflation in a calendar year-to-date inflation rate of 1.4 per cent, while the rate since last year July is 3.8 percent. With the price of oil on the world market at US$42 per barrel and the announcement of reduction in electricity cost locally, will have a moderating effect on inflation going forward for a while.
