Lumber Depot buys 35% of Atlantic Hardware

Lumber Depot announced the acquisition of a 35  percent in Atlantic Hardware & Plumbing Company Limited, a 30 year old Jamaican company, engaged in the wholesaling and distribution of hardware, building materials, plumbing, electrical, tools, and supplies to hardware stores, contractors, and developers across Jamaica.

Lumber Depot acquisition announcement.

The business located on “Ashenheim Road in Kingston is led by Managing Director, Deanall Barnes, an experienced business leader in the trading and distribution of building materials”, the release from Lumber Depot states.
There will be no change to the business strategy of Atlantic. Accordingly, it will continue to operate as a dedicated hardware wholesaler and distributor. The acquisition’s purchase price is $210 million and was funded with internal funds.
The investment will account for from May 1, 2024 by Lumber Depot. The majority shareholder of Atlantic is Construct Group, a private investment company.
Lumber Depot did not disclose either revenues nor profitability of the company in which the shares were acquired. ICInsider.com projects the company to get a boost in profits as a result of the investment, that should exceed the returns they were getting on the liquid funds they held. The Lumber Depot netted a 25 percent per annum return on equity up to the February quarter as such, it is unlikely that they did not pay much more than 4 time earnings for the 35 percent acquired and that would boost profit for Lumber Depot around $70 million and earnings per share in the region of 36 cents for the current fiscal year. There are also prospects for economies of scale, particularly in the purchase and importation of goods for resale that could result in cost savings, in the future.

BOJ’s overnight rate held at 7%

Following the May meetings that concluded Monday of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Bank of Jamaica held its overnight policy rate at 7 percent, although sighting lower inflation than projected, the rate has been at this level since November 2022, but the bank maybe signalling rate reduction in late summer.
According to the Central Bank Jamaica, the “headline inflation rate at April 2024 was 5.3 percent, which was within the Bank’s target of 4 to 6 percent and 0.3 percentage point lower than the rate recorded at March 2024. It was also lower than the Bank’s most recent forecast, mainly due to a faster-than-projected deceleration in agricultural food inflation. Core inflation (which excludes food and fuel prices from the Consumer Price Index (CPI)) was 5.7 percent in April 2024, marginally lower than the 5.9 percent in March 2024.”
BOJ cautioned that ‘while some key drivers of headline inflation, such as international grain prices and inflation expectations, continued to decline, international oil prices have increased. Inflation in the economies of Jamaica’s main trading partners has continued to moderate albeit at a slower-than-projected pace. The exchange rate has remained generally stable, given Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) monetary policy actions as well as strong tourism and remittance inflows.”

Jamaica’s Central Bank

BOJ went to further state, “the moderation in inflation is expected to be interrupted temporarily as inflation is projected to breach the upper end of the target range towards the end of the June 2024 quarter, mainly reflecting seasonally higher agricultural food inflation, a normalisation in electricity rates following significant declines in the same quarter of 2023, as well as higher transport costs due to an uptick in international oil prices. Inflation thereafter is projected to return to the target range and generally remain there over the next eight quarters except for a few months in 2025. The projected breaches in 2025 largely reflect a normalisation of agricultural prices following sharp declines in March 2024, which are not projected to re-occur.”

Interest rates drop

Bank of Jamaica may be ushering a period of lower interest rates in Jamaica, with decline in rates on the latest certificate of deposit (CDS) when they offered a mere $7 billion in CDs to the public on Wednesday but received bids for $25 billion from 279 applications, resulting in 151 being successful with the CD rate declining from just over 10.38 percent at the previous 30 days offer to an average of a flat 10 percent.
At the end of the auction total CDs that will be outstanding for 30 days amount to $128.5 billion this is down from under $160 billion dollars in late March when the average rate was 11.13 percent.
The amount offered in the auction and the fall in rates could be interpreted as an indication that the Bank of Jamaica has started the process of interest rate reduction in light of continued deflation for the first four months of this year in the order of 2 percent per annum.
The central bank had previously offered $20 billion in CDS for 25 months on May 13 resulting in an average rate of 9.08 percent even as it was undersubscribed with the bids amounting to $19.3 billion.
Bank of Jamaica raised their overnight rate to 7 percent in November 2022 and has maintained that rate since. Inflation for the year to date suggests that the country may be in a longer period of deflation than was thought possible by the authorities who may now be signalling that the policy of high interest rates may have outlived its time from late 2024.

BOJ’s policy pushes Jamaica into deflation

The inflation continues to moderate at a rapid pace, with the latest report out of the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reflecting a fall of 0.7 percent for April, following the decline in March 2024 of 0.5 percent bringing the year over year inflation to around 4.8 percent from 5.6 percent in March, still within the BOJ target of 4-6 percent but to the lower end of the target.
The 2024 calendar year inflation is now negative 1.9 percent and seems set to push inflation to zero by the end of summer after the months when inflation tends to rise above norms.
According to Statin, downward movement in the CPI for April was due mainly to a 2.3 per cent decline in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division as a result of lower electricity, water and sewage rates. Also contributing to the fall in the inflation rate was a 0.6 per cent fall in the index for the division, ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’.
Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) based there focus wrongly on past inflation rather than currently what is happening is placing the country into dire straits as month by month inflation has cooled from several months ago and deflation is what appears to be taking place now.

April’s Jamaica Tourist arrivals drop

Visitor arrivals dropped 7.7 percent at Kingston’s Norman Manley to 135,100 in April this year from 146,500 in 2023 and down 2.6 percent to 526,500 from 540,600 for the first four months of the year.
Montego Bay Sangster International Airport had a 4.2 percent reduction to 435,500 from 454,500 for the similar period in 2023 and rose 4.8 percent to 1.8928 million from 1.8055 million.
The data was taken from a report on airport traffic during April published by Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacifico operators of Jamaica’s two major airports.
The monthly decline may be due to a shift in the Easter holiday period to the close of March this year would have pushed stopover traffic with March compared with 2023 with Easter coming at the end of the first week in April.
Note that the numbers represent incoming and outgoing traffic as such actual arrivals would approximate half of the amounts reported above.

Jamaica’s NIR drops

Jamaica’s Net International Reserves declined by US$35 million in April moving from US$5.137 billion at the end of March this year to US$5.102 billion at the end of April 2024, data recently released by Bank of Jamaica show.
The balance at the end of April which exceeds the balance of US$4.76 billion at the end of December last year represents 25.78 weeks of Goods & Services Imports and 37.51 weeks of imports of goods, the Bank of Jamaica report stated.

Remittance inflows to Jamaica recover

Total remittance inflows into Jamaica, a major source of foreign exchange earnings for the country, rose 1.3 percent to US$254 million for February 2024, up from $250 million in February 2023, reversing months of decline since May 2023, data released by the country’s central bank show.
The moderately improved inflows pushed the year to date performance above 2023 with a marginal increase to $499.6 million from $499 million.
For February, the United States of America accounted for the bulk of the inflows at 69.6 percent, down from 71.7 percent in January. The UK followed with 10.8 percent, Canada with 8.5 percent and Cayman Island with 6.8 percent.

Omni Industries latest IPO

Omni Industries Limited and existing shareholders will offer up to 500 million ordinary shares to the public with the offer opening Friday May 17, with Friday, May 31 being the scheduled closing.
Half of the total issue or 250 million shares are new with an equal number to be sold by existing shareholders, bringing the total issued shares to 2.5 billion units and the shareholders’ equity capital to over $900 million.
Profit before tax was $180 million for 2023, up from $174 million in 2022 and $121 million in 2021. The first quarter interim results to March this year, show flat revenues and slightly lower profits at $103 million pretax versus $123 million in 2023. The earnings come out at 8 cents per share based on 2023 figures, putting the PE at just over 12, a shade below the junior Market average of 12 3 and an indication of minimal upside in the short run.
At least 120,931,383 participating ordinary shares are available for subscription by the public and up to 379,068,617 shares are for Reserve Share Applicants.
The company is based in Spanish Town the principal activities are the manufacturing and sale of PVC pipes, conduits, horses, fittings and plastic warehouse items.
The stock is slated for the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange and if listed will partially restore the total listings on that market but only to 47, after three companies migrated to the main Market this year.
NCB Capital Markets is the brokers for the issue.

Stocks to watch with explosive potentials

Better than expected reported profits compared with the prior period has been the driver of local stock prices since last year into the current year. Late last year, Transjamaican Highway and Scotia Group reported a surge in profits over the previous year and investors rewarded them with a jump in their price and they did that for Caribbean Cement that released results early last week.  
Last week, investors drove up General Accident shares to a new 52 weeks’ high and so too Caribbean Cement. The above are clear messages that profit growth outweighs interest rates as the driver of stock prices.
Three companies reported above average profits that should help lift prices over the coming days or weeks and are worth watching.
Caribbean Cement rose from $58 last week to trade as high as a new 52 weeks’ high of $69.90 in response to profits in the first quarter to March this year, from an increase of nearly 12 percent in revenues to $7.6 billion from $6.8 billion in 2023 with profits jumping 546 percent to $1.9 billion compared to a mere $289 million in last year first quarter.
Based on closing quotes buying interest is at the $60 level with a few shares at $61 but offers are at $69 to $70 levels and above. The gap could result in a standoff for a few days, with the stock popped strongly already.
General Accident reported earnings of $0.39 per share in its interim financial report for 2023 but released audited accounts with $0.52 per share earnings instead. The audited accounts show profit revised to $0.71 from $0.53 previously reported in 2022, based on the new accounting standard – IAS17 which requires insurance companies to report income and expenses dramatically differently from the previously used format.
ICInsider.com forecast earnings of $1.10 for the 2024 fiscal year. In the past two months, there was heavy buying in the stock, with 223,053 traded on Friday with the price closing at $6.50. A total of 1,026,154 units were traded during the week. In April, trading amounted to 19.77 million units and 23.8 million shares in March. These numbers suggest that Mayberry Investment disposed of the majority of shares they previously owned. At the close on Friday, there were only 8 offers on the board, amounting to less than 20,000 shares, up to a price of $9.57. There are 300,000 units on the bid over $5.95.

Caribbean Assurance Brokers selling at a PE of just 3 based on current year’s earnings.

Caribbean Assurance Brokers reported solid gains in profit for 2023 compared to 2022. The latest audited results show the company earning $0.47 per share, in line with ICInsdier.com’s projection before the release of the third quarter results that showed a fall in revenues and profit. The company reported earnings of $0.30 per share in the previous year. ICInsdier.com projects earnings of $0.65, for 2024.
Buying is strong at the $2-2.20 level but with the results, many of these bids will move up to meet supply, mostly at $2.55 and above. With the latest results, released after trading on Friday, there should be major adjustments to bid and offer prices at the start of trading on Monday.
Dolphin Cove closed at a 52 weeks’ high of $20.03 and seems to be grudgingly moving higher, with bids mostly under $20 for small amounts. Offers are drying up with just 14 on the board, between $21 and $25, amounting to 144,000 shares. The trendline indicates the price slowly moving towards $23 in the weeks ahead. With the first quarter results due in days, the trajectory could accelerate with tourist traffic and the recently increased dividend payment suggests that profit should be seeing a bounce.
Also to be watched is Caribbean Producers with just 4 bids at the close on Friday, but sellers are overwhelming buyers at the close. The price looks set to fall below $8, before too long.
JMMB Group is another stock under pressure with more sellers than buyers. NCB Financial releases results on Thursday and is expected to declare an interim dividend.

Caribbean Cement blockbuster Q1 profits

Caribbean Cement reported blockbuster profits in the first quarter to March this year from an increase of nearly 12 percent in revenues of $7.6 billion versus $6.8 billion in 2023 with profits jumping by 546 percent to $1.9 billion compared to just $289 million in last year first quarter.
Helping with the surge in profits was a sharp drop in the cost of sales from $5.5 billion to just $4 billion in the current quarter as the cost of raw materials fell sharply in the first quarter from $1.3 billion to $505 million.
Total operating expenses remained fairly stable at $673 million in 2024 versus $670 million last year with other operating expenses coming out at $311 million compared with $319 million in the previous year. Taxation jumped to $701 million versus a tax credit of $133 million last year.
Earnings per share ended at $2.27 for the quarter, up sharply from just 34 cents in the 2023 first quarter with full year’s earnings likely to exceed $8 per share.
The company generated $2.2 billion in cash inflows, bringing first quarter balance to $6.3 billion.
Shareholders’ equity climbed to $26 billion from $20 billion at the end of March 2023 and there is just a small amount of long term debt on the books.
Caribbean Cement stock is trading currently around $58 at a PE of just over 7 times this year’s earnings compared with an average of 13 for the Main Market. The company reported that the 30 percent expansion is expected to be completed in 2025. That will allowed for increased sales on the local and the overseas markets and making the stock an attractive investment for the immediate future and longer term.