Remittances climb in October


Remittance inflows to Jamaica climbed 3.7 percent to US$279.6 million in October 2024, from US$270.7 million in the similar 2023 period, with inflows of US$2.794 billion for year to October, slipping marginally from US$2.796 billion in the similar period 2023. 

Remittances inflows to Jamaica which ended at US$2.4 billion in 2019 surged to US$2.9 billion in 2020 peaking at US$3.497 billion in 2021 and have remained above $3.3 billion since and are on track to match the US$3.37 billion received in calendar year 2023.
“Remittances from  the United States accounted for 67.7 percent of total flows, down from 69.5 percent share recorded for October 2023. Other source countries which contributed a notable share of remittances for the month were the United Kingdom 11.0 percent, followed by Canada 10.7 percent and the Cayman Islands 6.2 percent”, data released by Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) show.

“Jamaica’s decline of 0.1 percent for the calendar year to October 2024, compares to growth of 8.6 percent, 2.3 percent and 0.8 percent recorded for Guatemala, Mexico and El Salvador, respectively, BOJ stated.

BOJ cd rate falls below 10%

Interest rate fell on Bank of Jamaica’s latest certificate of deposit offer to just 9.7 percent at an auction of $11 billion on Wednesday this week from over 10.02 percent at last week’s Wednesday regular offering, at $37 billion.
The auction attracted $33 billion from 361 applicants, with just 90 being successful. The highest bid clearing the auction was 9.98 percent. Following, the regular auction of last week, the Central Bank placed an unscheduled offer of $18 billion on the market on Thursday, attracting 245 bids for $28.46 billion, resulting in an average rate of 9.21 percent, with 140 bids being successful, with the highest successful rate being 9.74 percent.
At the close of this week’s auction, $129.5 billion in 30 days CD’s will be outstanding. This seems to be a continuation of the recent decline in CD rates that could be heralding a period of lower interest rates, following two years with rates being at an elevated level  since the second half of 2022.
Jamaica has had four straight months of high levels of deflation that seem set to continue into May and probably beyond and would demand a lowering of interest rates sooner rather than later.

Interest rates drop

Bank of Jamaica may be ushering a period of lower interest rates in Jamaica, with decline in rates on the latest certificate of deposit (CDS) when they offered a mere $7 billion in CDs to the public on Wednesday but received bids for $25 billion from 279 applications, resulting in 151 being successful with the CD rate declining from just over 10.38 percent at the previous 30 days offer to an average of a flat 10 percent.
At the end of the auction total CDs that will be outstanding for 30 days amount to $128.5 billion this is down from under $160 billion dollars in late March when the average rate was 11.13 percent.
The amount offered in the auction and the fall in rates could be interpreted as an indication that the Bank of Jamaica has started the process of interest rate reduction in light of continued deflation for the first four months of this year in the order of 2 percent per annum.
The central bank had previously offered $20 billion in CDS for 25 months on May 13 resulting in an average rate of 9.08 percent even as it was undersubscribed with the bids amounting to $19.3 billion.
Bank of Jamaica raised their overnight rate to 7 percent in November 2022 and has maintained that rate since. Inflation for the year to date suggests that the country may be in a longer period of deflation than was thought possible by the authorities who may now be signalling that the policy of high interest rates may have outlived its time from late 2024.

Jamaica’s NIR jumps another $100m

Jamaica’s Net International Reserves (NIR) rose approximately US$113 in the first 10 days of 2024 data published by the country’s central bank, the Bank of Jamaica shows. The latest increase to the total of US$770 million that was added in 2023 to over US$870 million since the beginning of 2023.
The January inflows push the total at the close last year of US$4.76 billion to US$4.87 billion and just short of the US$5 billion mark. The build-up of the NIR comes against the background of the tight monetary policy pursued by the country’s central bank that has sucked local money from the financial market, by use of certificates of deposit (CDs). Over the past year, the Bank of Jamaica’s open market instruments mainly CDs have moved up by J$74 billion to $247 billion. Apart from funds being bought from the market, the NIR would also have grown by interest earned on the funds being held as reserves which could be around US$200 million per year based on current interest rates internationally.

Mixed interest rate movements

Rates ended mixed on the latest issues of Government of Jamaica Treasury bills issued on Friday, June 9, following the auction of the two issues on Wednesday for $1.4 billion.
The 91 days issue for $700 million that matures in September this year resulted in an average yield of 7.86327 percent and the 182 days instrument has an average yield of 7.88671 percent.
The yield on the 182 days instrument is the lowest since August 2022 when it averaged 7.86, while the 91 days T-bill inched up from 7.82 percent in May but matched the rate in November last year and came against a background when the previous Bank of Jamaica CD average rate jumped to 9.30 percent, with only $21.36 billion going after the $22 billion the central bank offered.
The amounts of Treasury Bills applied for was $2.3 billion for the shorter term instrument and $3.06 billion for the other.