The Jamaican dollar recorded gains against all three main currencies it normally trades in, on Monday. Authorized dealers purchased the equivalent of US$41,860,767 versus US$35,659,548 on Friday, and sold the equivalent of US$35,129,589 compared with US$29,494,019 on Friday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$36,285,855 compared to US$32,605,602 on Friday. The buying rate for the US dollar dropped 13 cents to $112.53 and US$32,952,884 was sold versus US$27,680,260 on Friday. The selling rate inched down 2 cents to end at $113.16. The Canadian dollar buying rate fell 19 cents t0 $97.27 with dealers buying C$1,989,565 and selling C$902,623, at an average selling rate that slipped 3 cents, to $99.34. The rate for buying the British Pound increased 76 cents to $175.75, for the purchase of £2,281,857, while £758,614 was sold, at $176.81, a fall of 41 cents. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$291,320, while the equivalent of US$199,043, was sold.
Highs & Lows| The highest buying rate for the US dollar, closed 5 cents up to $113.45, the lowest buying and lowest selling rates were unchanged at $92.52 and $92.01 respectively and the highest selling rate rose 21 cents to $118.77. The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar rose 25 cents, to $101, the lowest buying rate fell 29 cents to $79.10, the highest selling rate closed 40 cents higher at $102.35. The lowest selling rate rose 9 cents to $95.30. The highest buying rate for the British Pound, jumped $2.20 to $180. The lowest buying rate dipped $1.12 to $141.76, the highest selling rate moved up by $1.37 to $182.76 and the lowest selling rate, fell $1.35 to $170.80.
J$ gains against all on Monday
Market interest picking up on JSE
In Monday’s activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, Cable & Wireless was the dominant trade by volume, but Carreras that attracted $22.6 million and National Commercial Bank with $13.7 million chasing the companies’ stocks, were the entities that stole the spotlight on the main market, as interest picks up in the market, ahead of year end.
Market activity resulted in the prices of 8 stocks rising and 4 declining, as 20 securities changed hands, ending in 9,884,489 units trading, valued at $75,309,835 in all market segments.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 4 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 8 stocks with offers that were lower.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index gained 702.26 points to 74,207.12, the JSE All Jamaican Composite index rose 785.23 points to close at 81,685.18 and the JSE combined index gained 778.06 points to close at 76,030.22.
Gains| Stocks gaining with last traded prices, at the end of trading in the main market are, National Commercial Bank contributing 739,021 shares as the price jumped 34 cents to $18.50, Pan Jamaican Investment ended trading with 10,920 shares, the price climbed 11 cents to $50.26. Proven Investments closed with 13,000 units and put on 0.79 cent to 18 US cents, Sagicor Group finished trading with 10,300 shares to end with an increase of 30 cents to $10 and Scotia Investments saw trading in 1,300 units to close with a rise of 50 cents to $22.51.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in the last traded prices are, Carreras trading with 614,778 shares changing hands at $37, Desnoes & Geddes finished trading with 1,850 shares at $4.90, followed by Jamaica Broilers trading 500 shares at $4. Jamaica Money Market Brokers exchanged 2,421 shares trading at $6.50, Scotia Group had dealing in 5,000 shares at $19.40 and Seprod contributed 133,472 shares changing hands at $11.88.
Declines| The last traded prices of stocks with losses at the end of trading in the main market are, Cable & Wireless ended with 1,364,200 units to close 3 cents lower at 49 cents Caribbean Cement closed with 68,000 units as the price slipped 4 cents to $2.41, Grace Kennedy finished with 33,640 shares trading 50 cents lower at $61.
Preference| Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference share traded 824,100 units with a 1 cents loss to end at$2.99.
Knutsford Express top juniors
Knutsford Express Services traded over 5 million shares at a new high of $5.85 on the Junior Market. Trading ended with 6,061,987 units valued at $30,930,731. The JSE Junior Market Index rose 12.60 points to close at 669.22, only 5 securities traded, with the price of 4 advancing.
At the close of the market, there were 2 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 2 stocks with offers that were lower. The junior market continues to exhibit weakness with 8 securities closing with no bids to buy. There were 5 securities that had no stocks being offered for sale.
Caribbean Producers finished trading with 185,826 shares, and closed with a gain of 26 cents at $2.26, Jamaican Teas concluded trading with 100 shares to end 10 cents higher, at $3.40, Knutsford Express exchanged 5,020,011 shares with a gain of 40 cents to a new 52 weeks’ high of $5.85. The company will benefit from lower fuel prices with the fall in the price of oil on the world market. Lasco Distributors had dealing in 819,050 shares as the price ended 4 cents higher, to $1.36. Consolidated Bakeries with 37,000 shares trading, closed at 82 cents.
NCB jumps 15% on TTSE
National Commercial Bank stock closed up 15 percent, on the Trinidad Stock Exchange on Monday, following the company’s release of year end results, and announcement of an increased dividend payment.
At the end of trading, 10 securities changed hands of which 3 advanced, 3 declined and 4 traded firm, with a total of 760,585 units, valued at $6,993,114.
At the close of the market, the Composite Index rose 3.60 points to close at 1,141.34, the All T&T Index fell by just 0.22 points to close at 1,961.52 and the Cross Listed Index increased by a mere 0.99 points to end at 42.07.
Gains| Stocks increasing in price, at the close are, Angostura Holdings that added 26,387 shares valued at $336,684 and closed, 1 cent higher at $12.76, Clico Investment Fund with 234,824 shares valued at $5,283,640, advanced by 1 cent to end at $22.51 and National Commercial Bank with a volume of 143,877 shares traded for $166,709 and gained 15 cents to end at $1.16.
Declines| The stocks declining at the end of trading are, Guardian Holdings, falling 2 cents, in trading 17,706 units, to close at $13.49, Jamaica Money Market Brokers with 207,891 shares changing hands, for a value of $93,643, lost 1 cent to 45 cents and National Enterprises trading 5,000 shares to close at $17.48 and losing 1 cent to end at a 52 weeks low.
Firm Trades| Stocks closing with prices unchanged at the end of trading are, First Citizens Bank traded 1,400 shares to close at $36.76, Grace Kennedy traded 500 shares at $3.84, Praetorian Property Mutual Fund traded 2,000 units at $3.40 and Sagicor Financial Corporation contributed 121,000 shares with a value of $726,000 to close at $6.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 2 stocks with the bid higher than their last selling prices and 2 stocks with offers that were lower.
Gleaner awaiting economic up turn
Profit at Gleaner Company, for the three months to September is up strongly, but that’s coming from a low level for 2013. Most of the improved figures came from a big upswing in finance income and not from the main activity of media.
Profit after tax rose 271 percent, to $16 million, up from just $4 million in 2013, and for the six months, growth was up 301 percent to reach $58.6 million from $14.6 million, but that is just 5 cents per share. Profit margins improved in 2014 over 2013 rising only 4 percent for the nine months and 11 percent in the quarter, but administration and other cost rose 11 percent in the quarter and a lesser 5 percent in the year to date period.
The other good news is the vast improvement in the results of the subsidiaries, for the year so far, having produced a profit of $10.5 million in the September quarter from a loss of $19 million last year and a reduced loss of $2 million for the year to September compared with a loss of $31 million in 2013.
Sales revenue remains flat, at just over $813 million for the 2014 and 2013 quarters and up a mere 2 percent for the nine months to September, at $2.43 billion. The economic conditions the country is in, coupled with stringent fiscal policies being pursued by the government, is not the environment that the media house relishes. The situation has been made worse by Claro mobile exiting the system, a few years ago. The acquisition of Flow by Cable & Wireless could well put more pressure on revenues down the road, depending on how the acquisition is handled. In the end, the acquisition will mean less advertising spend, nationally by the telecom sector if the acquisition goes through. Another negative, is that newspapers are not the in thing anymore, with newer readers preferring the internet, but they are not yet prepared to buy news on line the same way that news was sold in the past. Although, the Gleaner owns a radio station its profitability is at best small and can’t deliver much to the bottom line.
The company’s stock price is low compared to its historical norm, but compared with others in the market, it can be considered overpriced at a PE that is around 10 times current year’s earnings, with no sign of a major turnaround in its operations soon.
Carreras profit up margin squeezed
Profit at Carreras for the three months to September, is up 26 percent to $614 million, from $485 million in 2013, for the six months growth was less robust, at 20 percent to reach $1.17 billion from $9,71 million.
Revenues recovered considerable grounds, from the lost sales in 2013, from the front loading by merchants of inventories ahead of a pending price increase of cigarettes that the company implemented in March 2013. For the quarter, sales revenues rose 18.5 percent over that of 2013 and 19.3 percent for the six months to September. During last year September quarter, revenues fell 16 percent, so there is still a fall out, but that is usually the case whenever there is sizeable price increase, is effected.
Profit margins got squeezed, rising only 13 percent for the six months and 10 percent in the quarter, no doubt, due to the devaluation of the local dollar and the lack of a price increase so far. Carreras was able to hold cost well below the increased sales revenues for the quarter and year to date. The company is on track to earn somewhere in the region of $6 per share, for the current year and that will help move the price up. The stock remains IC Insider BUY RATED.
Carreras will pay a special capital cash distribution, on December 18, following an interim dividend of $1.20 per stock unit, to be paid on December 11, 2014. The payments will bring to total distribution for 2014 to $8.09.
The stock closed trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, at $37 on Friday, putting the PE ratio, at 6 times the current fiscal year earnings.
Dolphin Cove Profit up 14%
Dolphin Cove’s profit for the September quarter, rose 14 percent to $109 million and for the nine months to September, its up a strong 25 percent to $397 million. Cost generally rose slightly faster than revenues, but that did not impair the results by much.
Direct cost 16 percent for the quarter and 18 percent year to date, administrative and other costs were up 18 percent for quarter, but was in line with revenues, at 15 percent for the nine months, to September. Margins were held for the quarter and rose for the nine months period. Revenues climbed 16 percent for the quarter, and 15 percent year to date. At the end of the financial year to December, earnings should be just over $1.20, for this major tourist attraction.
Attendant with the growth in profit, the company increase the amount paid out in dividend in 2014 over 2013.
Stocks cast doubt on 2012 confidence surge
Business and consumer confidence levels, hit the roof in the latest surveys conducted between February and March of 2012. But the actions of investors on the local stock market suggest that they do not buy into the surge or the main reasons for the optimism.
Based on the data, business confidence levels are at a near all-time high with the change in the latest indices showing an all-time jump of 29 percent reaching 123.70 but still below the all-time high of 134.2 in the 2007 September quarter. Consumer confidence in the review period leaped an astounding 54 percent to reach 160.1, all this after a new political party was installed in power with slim popular majority support at the polls in December last year.
The numbers grew in 2007 with consumer confidence rising by 12 percent for an all-time
high then of 154.9 in the June 2007 quarter, shortly before the general election of that year. There were no surveys done in the December quarter last year.
Jeep Boost Confidence Interestingly, a great deal of the boost in confidence hinges on the expectation of a programme that is yet to show any major signs of delivering meaningful fruit, that is the JEEP employment initiative. The only problem is that smart money is not buying it, at least not now.
The confidence levels and the stock market tend to move closely together as indicated by the graph, which plots the percentage changes in both the business survey and the All Jamaica stock market index. There are two periods—late 2002 to mid-2004 and again since March last year—when the two deviated widely. The stock market is not buying the increase in confidence. The market, which trades daily, more quickly reflects the major changes in economic development than either the consumer or business surveys that are conducted quarterly.
Firms Gets Boost Too “The change in government policies did cause firms to anticipate much more favorable economic conditions and expected their firm to benefit from added demand. Firms, unlike consumers, had already noticed some strengthening in the Jamaican
economy in early 2012. Jamaica’s main trading partners still face challenges, although the U.S. economy is expected to continue to improve during 2012. Overall, the data point toward an improving economy with the financial condition of firms strengthening and a cautious expansion of investments”, the survey indicated.
Hope For Benefits “When Jamaicans were asked to describe in their own words why they viewed conditions more favorably, more than half mentioned the new government and the new jobs programme. When specifically asked about future jobs prospects, 57 percent expected jobs to be more plentiful, twice the 23 percent recorded in last year’s 1st quarter survey. This was the highest proportion to hold favorable
job expectations, eclipsing the 42 percent recorded after the 2007 election. Just 19 percent expected jobs to be harder to get during the year ahead, well below the 50 percent plus levels recorded in every survey during the past three years.”
As it pertained to the strengthening of the economy, just 10 percent of Jamaicans
were of the view that the economy improved during the past year, while 47 percent
expected economic gains during the current year. This was the most favorable
outlook for the economy ever recorded, predicated on the new government.
Examination of the data historically indicates that consumer confidence levels
are the least reliable of the two surveys.
Rich year for Carreras’ shareholders
Carreras declared yet another dividend payable to shareholder in December, with the latest being $1 per stock unit to be paid out of proceeds received from the liquidation of a subsidiary. The payment is pending the granting of a transfer tax exemption pursuant to the Transfer Tax Act.
The interim special capital cash distribution will be paid on December 18, to stockholders on record as at December 1, 2014. The ex-dividend date is November 27. The distribution follows the interim dividend of $1.20 per stock unit due for payment on December 11, 2014, to stockholders on record at November 20. The payment will bring to total for 2014 to $8.09 for a return of 22 percent for the year based on the stock price of $36.75 at the end of 2013. The stock closed at $37 on Friday on the Jamaica Stock Exchange.
In September, Carreras paid an interim dividend of $1.20 per stock unit, the company also paid an interim dividend of $1.75 per stock unit on June 26. On March 13 they paid $1.62 per share.
A special capital cash distribution of $1.34 per stock unit was paid on July 31 and a special capital cash distribution of $1.18 was last paid on January 30, this year.
Profit up|Carreras just announced results for the six months to September, with an 18.5 percent increase in revenues for the quarter, over that of 2013 and 19.3 percent for the six months, to September.
Profit after tax, rose 28 percent in the quarter, to reach $614 million, up from $485 million in 2013, and for the six months, growth was less robust, at 12 percent, to reach $1.22 billion from $970 million.
Profit margins got squeezed, rising only 13 percent for the six months and 9 percent in the quarter, no doubt due to the devaluation of the local dollar and the lack of a price increase so far. Revenues are recovering from the 2013 price increase, and from the front loading by merchant of inventories ahead of the increase. The company is on track to earn somewhere in the region of $6 per share for the current year, that will help move the price up. The stock remains IC Insider BUY RATED.
NCB pushes market as year-end rally continues
Friday’s activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, resulted in the prices of 5 stocks rising and 6 declining as 18 securities changed hands, ending in 3,496,586 units trading, valued at $32,700,014, in all market segments.
National Commercial Bank stole the spotlight trading nearly 600,000 units , with the price closing, $1.05 higher than the previous days close, as investor signal their approval of the details of results for the 2014 fiscal year.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator showed 4 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 7 stocks with offers that were lower.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index gained 268.30 points to 73,504.86, the JSE All Jamaican Composite index rose 300.00 points to close at 80,899.95 and the JSE combined index gained 195.54 points to close at 75,252.16.
Gains| Stocks gaining with last traded prices, at the end of trading in the main market are, Cable & Wireless concluded trading with 1,618,096 shares changing hands, as the price gained 2 cents to 52 cents, Carreras ended trading with 411,367 shares trading, $1.45 higher to $37, Kingston Wharves closed with 50,000 shares traded, while gaining 59 cents to $6. National Commercial Bank finished trading with 591,178 units, to close with a gain of $1.05 at $18.16, as investors responded positively to the bank’s year-end results, showing earnings of $4.73 per share and increase dividend of 96 cents to be paid in December. NCB traded as high as $19 before settling at the lower figure and Scotia Investments saw trading in 12,036 shares, with the price rising 1 cent to $22.01.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in the last traded price are, Jamaica Broilers that ended trading with 9,601 shares changing hands at $4, Mayberry Investments ended with 444,013 shares at $1.50 and Scotia Group finished trading with 212,541 shares changing hands at $19.40.
Declines| The last traded prices of stocks with losses, at the end of trading in the main market are, Desnoes & Geddes ending with 3,100 units, the price slipped 5 cents, to $4.90, Grace Kennedy closed with 5,165 shares trading, 50 cents lower, to $61.50, Jamaica Money Market Brokers finished with 16,213 ordinary shares trading, with a loss of 30 cents to $6.50, Proven Investments ended with 12,000 units as the price slipped 0.79 cents to 17.2 US cents and Sagicor Group closed with 56,340 shares, trading 1 cents lower at $9.70.
Preference| Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference share traded 15,400 shares at $3.
