The highlights of the week for ICTOP10 stocks is the price movement of stocks, with the big moves being Dolphin Cove with a recovery of 25 percent back to $10.25 and 14 percent for Access Financial in the Junior market and 21 percent rise, with the Junior market closing over the 3,400 points level for the first time since July and is now close to a two year’s high. Caribbean Producers to $8 after it hit an all-time high of $9 on Wednesday to be up 186 percent for the year to Friday.
Sygnus Credit Investment gave back the 5 percent increase last week to end at $17.80. Berger Paints and Proven Investments both gave up 3 percent during the week, while Junior Market Lasco Financial gave up six percent at the end of the week in closing at $3.05 and Caribbean Assurance Brokers lost three percent, from $1.79 to $1.74 as Medical Disposables rose four percent to $4.95 after hitting an intraday high of $5.80 on Friday and Lumber Depot rose four percent to $2.97.
There are no additions to the ICTOP10 this week, but with company results increasingly appearing, the markets could benefit from some of them. Caribbean Cement released third quarter results and investors responded negatively to them with the third quarter profit, down sharply from bot 2020 third quarter and the previous two quarters. The stock propped higher to close the week at $114 after it fell to almost $100. This stock now looks like one for 2022 as it seems fully valued based on probable results for 2021. Jamaica Stock Exchange released third quarter numbers with higher 2021 income and profit helped considerably by two big one off type trades in August and September, as such, investors should be careful that they do not read too much into those results about exciting prospects.  Mayberry Investments released results for the year to September with profit up for the nine months from a loss of $664 million to a profit of $513 million and a profit of $224 million, down from $298 million in September 2020 quarter. Other comprehensive income that is positive for the nine months rising from a fall of $5 billion in 2020 to a surplus of $1.2 billion but a loss of $861 million for the September 2021 quarter. The company will be paying a hefty dividend of 32 cents per share. The company will be paying a hefty dividend of 32 cents per share. Lasco Manufacturing and Lasco Distributor reported second quarter results. The former enjoyed a 13 percent increase in revenues to $4.65 billion and a 6 percent rise in profit to $782 million after increased taxation in the period versus a lower rate in 2020. The distributing company enjoyed a 15 percent rise in revenues to $11.6 billion and a 14 percent fall in after tax profit to $197 million.
As 2021 slowly crawls to a close, the focus should be on 2022 and the current year’s values to determine the appropriate valuation of each stock for a hold or fold decision. Most of the top 2021 stocks will not make the top 10 in 2022, but some will. The IC 80/20 rule, with a long 40 year history, shows an average of only two of the top ten stocks in a year repeat in the following one, while 4 out of 10 of the worst performing stocks will end up as TOP 10 winners in the succeeding year.
The top seven stocks so far, with gains of 52 to 231 percent, are; Future Energy, Jamaican Teas, Fosrich, ISP Finance, Lumber Depot, Express Catering and Honey Bun. In the Main market, Caribbean Cement, Caribbean Producers, Salada Foods, Radio Jamaica and Grace.
The top three Main Market stocks are Guardian Holdings, Berger Paints and JMMB Group, with expected gains of 216 to 254 percent versus last weeks’ 238 to 264 percent.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market have undergone a metamorphose with only are Elite Diagnostic, remaining in the top three this week and is followed by General Accident and Lasco Financial, with all three having the potential to gain between 228 and 281 percent, from 238 percent and 287 percent, previously.
The average gains projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks moved from 213 percent last week to 202 percent and Main Market stocks moved from 173 percent to 169 percent.
The Junior Market closed the week with an average PE 13.2 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is currently well below the target of 20 and the historical average of 17 for the period to March this year, based on 2020 earnings. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 6.8, with a 52 percent discount to that market’s PE.
The overall Junior Market can gain 51 percent to March next year, based on an average PE of 20 and 29 percent based on an average PE of 17. Seven stocks representing 15 percent of all Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, down from nine last week, indicating that many others will rise above the 17 mark in the weeks ahead.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 15.6, which is 22 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 28 percent below the target of 20 to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 7.8, representing a 50 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. A total of 12 stocks or 25 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average PE of 25.5, suggesting that the accepted multiple maybe around 25 times the current year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. The TOP10 is a selection of stocks that are most likely to deliver the largest gains within fifteen months. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on possible increases for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Developments during the week for ICTOP10 Main Market stocks saw Sygnus Credit Investment adding another 5 percent to its value this past week on top of the 5 percent rise in the previous week to close at $18.65 from $17.80, to be up 17 percent for October. Sterling Investments rose 9 percent from $2.76 to $3 and Berger Paints gained 3 percent during the week. Caribbean Producers lost 2 percent, Guardian Holding fell 6 percent from $550 to $515 and Proven

Sygnus Credit Investments is up 17% in October.

Investments lost 7 percent to round out the main movements in ICTOP10 for the week. There were no additions to the ICTOP10 this week, but volatility continued, with Junior Market stocks bouncing up and down. Elite Diagnostic gained 3 percent to $3.10, Caribbean Assurance Brokers rallied 2 percent, from $1.75 to $1.79, Lumber Depot rose 2 percent to $2.89, with persistent selling above keeping a lid on price movement. Access Financial lost 7 percent to close at $17.25 from $18.50, AMG Packaging fell 7 percent to close at $1.80 from $1.93 after the company released full year results. Dolphin Cove dived 20 percent from $10.25 to $8.20, Medical Disposables with bright prospects for the future fell 10 percent to $4.74 and Stationery and Office Supplies slipped 2 percent to $6.40 from $6.50.
As 2021 slowly crawls to a close, the focus should be switching to 2022 along with the current year’s values to determine the appropriate valuation of each stock and the hold or fold decision. Most of the top 2021 stocks will not make the top 10 in 2022. The IC 80/20 rule, with a long 40 year history, shows an average of only two of the top ten stocks in a year repeat in the following one, while 4 out of 10 of the worst performing stocks will end up as TOP 10 winners in the succeeding year. The top seven stocks so far, with gains of 52 to 231 percent and three others gaining more than 100 percent are; Future Energy, Jamaican Teas, Fosrich, ISP Finance, Lumber Depot, Express Catering and Honey Bun. In the Main market, Caribbean Producers is 136 percent to date and is expected to deliver much more gains into 2022, Salada Foods rose 107 percent, Radio Jamaica has an increase of 103 percent, but investors can expect much more from this one but a lot is expected after the release of the September quarter results, Caribbean Cement is scheduled to release third quarter results next weekend, with the stock price up 88 percent for the year to date and Grace up 55 percent.
Elsewhere, Supreme Ventures released nine months results with 22 percent increased sales to $19.3 billion for the nine months but virtually flat third quarter sales of $6.3 billion with nine months profit slipping marginally from $1.55 billion to $1.54 billion and the third quarter falling from $596 million down to $311 million. Earnings per share ended at 57.7 cents and 11.8 cents for the quarter.  AMG Packaging released full year results, with profits of $62.6 million, up from $56 million in 2020 with earnings per share of 12 cents. The quarterly profit was $20 after tax and, in 2020, $18.4 million after a tax credit. Construction of the new facility is complete, and machinery and equipment are ordered and is expected to be installed during the November quarter.
The top three Main Market stocks are, Caribbean Producers currently consolidating around $7, but closed the week at $6.60, followed by Guardian Holdings and Berger Paints with expected gains of 238 to 264 percent versus last weeks’ 235 to 256 percent.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market are Elite Diagnostic, followed by Access Financial and Medical Disposables. All three have the potential to gain between 238 and 287 percent, from 220 percent and 300 percent previously.
The average gains projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks moved from 200 percent last week to 213 percent and Main Market stocks remain at 173 percent.
The Junior Market closed the week with an average PE 13.2 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is currently well below the target of 20 and the historical average of 17 for the period to March this year, based on 2020 earnings. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 6.5, with a 52 percent discount to that market’s PE.
The overall Junior Market can gain 49 percent to March next year, based on an average PE of 20 and 29 percent based on an average PE of 17. Nine stocks representing 25 percent of all Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, up from five last week, indicating that many others will rise above the 17 mark in the weeks ahead.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 15.6, which is 22 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 28 percent below the target of 20 to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 7.7, representing a 50 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. A total of 10 stocks or 22 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average PE of 25.5, suggesting that the accepted multiple maybe around 25 times the current year’s earnings.
The TOP10 is a selection of stocks that are most likely to deliver the largest gains within fifteen months. ICTOP10 focuses on potential yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Caribbean Cream, with its Kremi brand of ice cream, reported disappointing second quarter results and fell out of the TOP 10 with full year earnings down to 65 cents, allowing Lumber Depot to return to the Junior Market ICTOP10. No other company moved in or out of the ICTOP10 stocks, valued at half that of the two overall markets.
Caribbean Cream half year’s results saw a modest 5 percent increase in sales in the second quarter, well below the first quarter increase of 28 percent, but cost rose above that of 2020, leaving a small profit of $7 million for the August quarter. The company’s management attributed the performance primarily to the no-movement days in operation during the quarter that curtailed sales. Knutsford Express returned to profit in the quarter of $9.2 million, from a loss in 2020 for the August quarter on improved revenues of $233 million from $122 million in 2020 but well off the $325 million in 2019. Paramount Trading had marginal movement in revenues for the August quarter of $369 million from $362 million in 2020, with a profit of $19 million versus $15 million in 2020.
Now that we are in the final quarter for 2021, many companies valuations will climb between now and early next year to further discount the current year’s earnings. Some stocks may therefore appear fully priced or close.  Investors should keep eyes on both this and next year’s earnings to determine the appropriate valuation of each stock and whether to hold or fold. The 80/20 rule of trading stocks should be ever present as the long 40 year history of the local market shows that only two out of each of the top ten stocks in a year repeat in the following while 4 out of 10 of the worst performing stocks end up as winners in the succeeding year. The lesson is that many of the top stocks for 2021 will not make it in 2022.
Elsewhere, in the Junior Market, AMG Packaging price bounced around in the week but closed at $1.93, Caribbean Assurance Brokers rallied 7 percent, from $1.63 to $1.75, Dolphin Cove rose from $9.69 to $10.25 and Stationery and Office Supplies moved up by 8 percent from $6 to $6.50.
In the Main Market, Guardian Holding fell from $577 to $550, Sygnus Credit Investment popped 5 percent from $16.96 to $17.80, to be up 11 percent in two weeks and Sterling Investments slipped 8 percent from $3.01 to $2.76. The latter two are flashing strong signals of higher prices ahead as active supplies on the sell side in the market are moderate.
The top three Main Market stocks are Caribbean Producers which is consolidating around $7, followed by Berger Paints and Guardian Holdings, with expected gains of 235 to 256 percent versus last weeks’ 219 to 264 percent.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market are Elite Diagnostic, followed by General Accident and Access Financial. All three have the potential to gain between 220 and 300 percent, down from 230 percent and 304 percent previously.
The average gains projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks moved from 210 percent to 200 percent and Main Market stocks from 170 percent to 173 percent.
The Junior Market closed the week, with an average PE 13.4 based on ICInsider.com’s updated 2021-22 earnings and currently well below the target of 20 and the historical average of 17, for the period to March this year, based on 2020 earnings. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 6.8, with a 51 percent discount to that market’s PE.
The overall Junior Market can gain 49 percent to March next year, based on an average PE of 20 and 27 percent based on an average PE of 17. Nine stocks representing 25 percent of all Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, up from five last week, indicating that many others will rise above the 17 mark in the weeks ahead.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 15.4, 23 percent less than PE of 19 at the ended of March and 30 percent below the targeted PE of 20 to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 7.7, representing a 50 percent discount to the market and  well below the potential of 20.  A total of 10 stocks or 22 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average PE of 25.5, suggesting that the accepted multiple may be around 25 times the current year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 is not intended to select the best stocks in the market but ones that are most likely to be the largest winners within a fifteen month period. ICInsider.com ranks stocks to highlight the winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winners, helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.