The best way to make money in the stock market or to minimise losses is to understand what is being invested in an avoid overpriced stocks. Investors have bought heavily into the concept of tourism industry being a winner in Jamaica but they need to know that it is highly seasonal with the bulk of the income earned in the period from Christmas Eve to somewhere in April and again between July and August.
Entities involved in the hotel traded will note that earnings slump sharply for the rest of the year but cost fall much more slowly. Against this factor is not surprising to see the Sagicor Real Estate Fund’s highly inflated first quarter profit, gave way to more realistic results in the company’s second quarter, with profit of 8 cents per share in the June quarter down from 11 cents in the June 2014 quarter. Buoyed by an abnormal first quarter results, earnings ended at 46 cents per share to June versus 27 cents for the six months to June last year. As the year progresses earnings per share should fall, with the lower tourism inflows for the remainder of the year.
The fund acquired the Hilton Rose Hall in January 2015, adding 489 hotel rooms directly under its ownership. The acquisition helped the fund to report $570 million in profit after tax for the March quarter. Not disclosed to investors, is the fact that the expenses reflected in the March interim results were not the normal amount one would expect from the level of business attained. While the income in both the June and the March quarters were virtually the same, operating expenses were nearly $200 million more in the June quarter than in March. Why is this so? In all probability the former operators of the hotel would have spent on marketing and refurbishing that would have helped to generate the income without some of the attendance cost, not so in the June quarter. While profit before taxation in the first quarter was $293 million from revenues of $1.19 billion, the net position in the June quarter was only $72 million from just $37 million less income from the hotel.
What can be expected is that revenues could be down by about 30-40 percent while expenses won’t fall much, resulting in large losses for the rest of the year. With the rate of exchange of the local dollar stabilizing, appreciation from the units held in the Sagicor Unit Trust is unlikely to show much gain. What now exist is a company whose earnings, at best may have peaked and at worse, could end up being lower than the 46 cents per share reported to date, then there is 2016 when the hotel expenses will reflect a full year’s expenditure and profits from it won’t be as robust as in the March quarter. Where will the profits come from to justify the high stock price? These are questions that investor should be asking themselves and management.
The FSC and the Stock Exchange need to ask themselves if allowing companies to leave inadequate information in the market place is the best way to protect investors and the integrity of the capital market?