The Main and Junior Markets closed the week slightly lower, resulting in big gains and losses in the Junior Market while movements in the Main Market were more moderate than the Junior Market stocks and surprisingly there is only one new entrant into the top 10 listings, this week.
Scotia Group released full year results with EPS of $5.54 and announced the payments of a dividend of 40 cents per share, with the price hitting a new one year high on Friday. The dividend suggests a minimum payment of $1.60 per share over the next twelve months. Based on historical norms of 40-50 percent payout of profits it should be a higher payout. With the release of 2023 full year results, ICInsider.com switched over to 2024 earnings, with EPS at $7.50. Buying interest picked up during the week. The stock trades at an extremely low PE of 4.8 times projected 2024 earnings and still only 6.5 times based on earnings for 2023. AMG Packaging trades at 6.5 times 2024 earnings with only 58,816 shares on offer at the close on Friday and so is Jamaica Teas, with offers now generally above $2.53, with buyers mostly at $2.30, some selling came in for Access Financial this week, Caribbean Cement also has limited stocks on offer and so does Seprod.
Three Junior Market stocks gained 9 to 21 percent and three ended with 10 to 20 percent losses, while the Main Market had two stocks with worthwhile gains of 9 and 13 percent and three with sizable losses of 6 to 11 percent.
The Main Market ICTOP10 ended with, Key Insurance popping 13 percent to $2.49 and Scotia Group up 9 percent, while General Accident declined 11 percent to $4.50, Palace Amusement down 8 percent to $1.19 and 
Caribbean Producers lost 6 percent to close at $8.50.
The Junior Market ended, with Iron Rock Insurance jumping 21 percent to $2.50, followed by Lasco Distributors and Lasco Manufacturing rising 9 percent each to $3.93 and $4.63 respectively. AMG Packaging dropped 20 percent to $2.30, Caribbean Cream and Jamaica Teas fell 10 percent to $3.31 and $2.30 respectively.
Tropical Battery dropped out of the Junior Market ICTOP10 and is replaced by Elite Diagnostic. There were no changes in the IC Main Market TOP10
Indications of where stock prices could be by May 2024 can be seen from stocks with the highest values in the Main and Junior Markets.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market ICTOP 10 stands at 5.1, well below the market average of 12.8. The Main Market ICTOP10 is projected to gain an average of 299 percent by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings and now provides better values than the Junior Market with the potential to gain 204 percent over the same time frame.
In the Main Market ICTOP 10, a total of 15 of the most highly valued stocks representing 31 percent of the Main Market are priced at a PE of 15 to 108, with an average of 28 and 18 excluding the highest PE ratios and a PE of 23 for the top half and 16 excluding the stocks with overweight values.
The PE of the Junior Market TOP10 sits at 6.8, over half of the market, with an average of 13.2. There are 13 stocks, or 27 percent of the market, with PEs from b>15 to 50, averaging 21, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 18, possibly the lowest fair value for stocks.
Of great import is that the averages of both markets are now converging around a PE of 20 for close to a third of the market, as the year is coming to a close and with more information available on the full year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns on or around May 2024 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
Sunshine Palace opens June
Palace Amusement is expanding with the re-entry into the rapidly growing Portmore community with the new cinema Sunshine Palace expected to open around mid-June.
The newest cinema house when complete, will bring the number of movie houses operated by Palace to four. The new cinema has 4 auditoriums, providing seating for 674 persons. Patrons will be enjoy the best movie facilities in Jamaica with some seats equipped to recline for greater comfort and will enjoy digital screens for better quality viewing experience. The company in its 2018 annual report had stated then, “we are excited about the offerings of the four screens location to come” in Portmore. Reports reaching IC Insider.com is that the resident of the area are eagerly awaiting the opening new facility that will be located at the new Portmore Sunshine Mall, next door to the Sovereign Village Portmore.
Recliner box seats exclusively for cinema 4.
In 2004 fiscal year, the then Portmore cinema brought in just over $15 million in revenue, with segment profit of $1.2 million. In 2004, the population was around 160,000 persons and is now around 200,000, but the cinema can pull support from the wider environs including the parish capital, Spanish Town. IC Insider.com estimates that the new cinema could generate revenues of more than $350 million per year, assuming that at least just one person on average from the area attends the cinema annually. The estimated revenue would be just ahead of that is generated in the Montego Bay. With Portmore so close to Kingston, it could result in a switch in some of the existing business to the new one.
The plaza that will house Palace latest movie house.
Palace share last traded on the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at $1,300.
Top 5 record first 100% gain
Paramount Trading closed at an all-time high of $29 last week and gained 107% since early september.
With the stock to be split into 10 units for each one now in issue by mid November, the price seems set to go higher with the expansion into lubricant manufacturing expected to boost profit in the next full fiscal year.
There is no new entry to the Top 5 list this week for either the junior market or the main market list but price movements resulted in changes in positions.
A number of companies released results for the third quarter with some not providing figures that could help to improve the prices of the relevant stocks. One such is Caribbean Cement that reported a loss in the September quarter, the result of closure of the factory for 45 days for refurbishing of the kiln. This does not affect the strong prospects for 2017 that will benefit from lower cost resulting from a reduced work force and a more efficient plant and increase demand for cement to flow from a growing economy.
AMG Packaging reported slightly better full year results to August with profit of $83 million versus $80 million but profit for the last quarter declined to $17 million from $27 million in 2015, the company incurred a loss of $41 million for the year from sales of just $2 million in the new tissue operation. Gross profit margin climbed to $177 million compared to $149 million with sales declining from $633 million down to $629 million but other cost rose from $72 million to $100 million.The next in line to the Top 5 in the junior market are tTECH, Caribbean Producers, Jamaican Teas, Eppley and Medical Associates and in the main market are Palace, JMMB Group, National Commercial Bank, Pan Jamaican and Sterling Investments.
Caribbean Cement tops Top 5
Jetcon Corporation and Caribbean Cement sit atop the IC Insider’s Top 5 stocks with the best chance of rising on junior market and main market of the Jamaican Stock Exchange at the end of last week. Both stocks just edging out the number 2 by just a few points.
There were no new entrants in either lists but Caribbean Flavours swapped place with Medical Disposables that now sits at the number 5 spot. In the main market selections Caribbean Cement changed spots with Berger Paints with the latter enjoying a slight price gain while Cement suffered a mild decline in price. AMG Packaging last traded at $21 and seems a candidate for a stock split with limited supply and inadequate liquidity of the stock. 
Blue Power that last traded at $24.50 and is outside the Top 5, is also in category of a potential stock split.
Derrimon Trading sits just below the Top 5 junior market stocks followed by Dolphin Cove CAC 2000, tTech and Caribbean Cream that dropped sharply this past week to $7.
Sitting below the Top 5 in the main market are, Palace, JMMB Group, National Commercial Bank, (NCB) Sterling Investments and Pan Jamaican Investments. Feedback from the market, is that NCB is in strong demand against a background of very limited supply and the price being severely undervalued.
Paramount best Top 5 performer
Paramount Trading having closed on Friday at $23.95 ended up as to top performing stock since IC Insider started the Top 5 selection list. 
All selections recorded gains since they were identified as top stocks.
For the week ended on October 14, Jetcon Corporation emerged as the leader of the list of junior market stocks with the greatest potential gains followed by Access Financial Services, Derrimon Trading rose to over $4 and slipped off the list at the end of the week. Knocking at the door of the list are tTech and Dolphin Cove followed by Derrimon Trading.
Main market stocks all remained in the Top 5 but with changes in position with Barita Investments moving down to number 3 with the price moving to $4.65 and Berger Paints holding the top spot. Sitting just below the Top 5 are Palace Amusements. 
JMMB Group, National Commercial Bank, Mayberry Investments and Sterling Investments all with potential gains over 100 percent.
IC Insider started the Top 5 selection as of September 9 and with just over a month having passed IC Insider looked at the performance of all the selections. Paramount Trading topped the list with a gain of 71 percent followed by 31 percent for Derrimon Trading and 27 percent for Medical Disposables in the junior market and a 48 percent gain for Barita Investments followed by a gain of 35 percent for JMMB Group.
Kremi leads them
Caribbean Cream is leading trading with 1.3 million units 
trading out of a total of 2.46 million units of that have traded with an hour and a half of trading. Investors were responding to the company’s audited accounts showing a 62 percent increase in profit versus 40 percent shown in the preliminary interim report earlier. The Jamaica Stock Exchange had 22 securities trading at 11 on Thursday accounting for 2.5 million units. The All Jamaican Composite Index is up 465.03 points 109,293.92, the JSE index is at 98,731.22 gained 416.04 points and the junior market index rose 2.16 to 872.56 so far 7 stocks recorded gains versus 3 that are down including Palace which fell 20 to $60 with small volume. There were 6 securities traded in the junior market and 16 in the main and US dollar market
In trading, Carreras traded 48,324 with the price rising to $50 from $49 on Thursday after the company announced a $2 dividend, there is currently a bid to buy at $50.11. Barita Investments traded 134,024 shares at $2.50, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.50% preference share traded 429,000 units at $2.30, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference shares 370,000 units at $3.02.
CWJ trade at 37C cancelled on JSE
In Friday’s Jamaica Stock Exchange activity, Cable & Wireless (C&W) that is now in hot pursuit by just about all the brokers, flowing from the release of the announced acquisition of Flows operation worldwide and news of continued strong growth in new cell customers, traded at 37 cents, but did not trade in the end, as the trades were cancelled, having exceeded the maximum level permitted in a day and no sellers prepared to sell below, before trading closed.
At the end of trading, C&W had 9,997,276 units to buy at 36 cents and just under 232,000 units to sell at 50 cents. The market ended with the prices of 7 stocks rising and 7 declining as 23 securities changed hands and 5,811,093 units trading, valued at $41,708,849, in all market segments.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 10 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 4 stocks with offers that were lower. This positive indicator is in keeping with the technical signal from the main market, showing the short term moving average, crossing over the medium term moving average, amongst other positive indicators.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index lost 59.52 points to 72,842.87, the JSE All Jamaican Composite index fell 66.55 points to close at 80,159.75 and the JSE combined index declined 67.63 points to close at 74,661.51.
Gains| Stocks gaining at the last traded prices, at the close of the main market are, Grace Kennedy ending with 75,798 shares, 50 cents higher at $60, Kingston Wharves closing with 1,345 shares while gaining 15 cents to $5.30, Mayberry Investments saw trading in 106,028 shares while rising 1 cent to $1.51 and Supreme Ventures ended with 48,800 units and put on 3 cents to $1.73.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in the last traded prices are, Berger Paints, finishing trading with 36,700 shares, changing hands at $1.60, Desnoes & Geddes concluded trading with 1,984,085 shares at $4.60, but closed with the bid at $4.80, to buy $20,600 shares.There was dealing in 35,462, Jamaica Broilers shares at $4, Jamaica Money Market Brokers contributed 2,158 ordinary shares in closing at $7, Palace Amusement concluded trading with 27,970 shares at $90 and Sagicor Group exchanged 392,771 shares at $9.65.
Declines| The last traded prices of stocks with losses at the end of trading in the main market are, Caribbean Cement, closed with 10,000 shares, to end 20 cents lower at $2.40, Carreras saw trading in 45,173 units, to end with a decline of 2 cents at $34.48, National Commercial Bank closed with 742,177 shares traded, with a loss of 80 cents to $17 and Proven Investments finished trading with 3,240 units to fall 0.01 cent at 17.99 US cents.
Preference| Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference share traded 241,000 units at $3.
Palace triples profit
Palace Amusement Company has reported profits that has more than tripled the results for the June quarter last year. Profit after tax came in at $26.6 million in the latest quarter versus $9 million in June 2012.
The company made $18.5 million for the 12 months to June 2013, up from the $14.7 million made for the year to June 2012, a 26 percent increase. The results completely erased the poor March quarter when revenues fell sharply and took profits with it. Year to date revenues are up to $862 million coming from $842 million in 2012 and in the last quarter revenues were $278 million versus $243 million in the same quarter in 2012 for a 14 percent increase, much better than the 2 percent increase for the entire year.
March quarter | Profit for the March quarter fell sharply compared to the March 2012 quarter to a loss of $22 million from $2.66 million in 2012. IC Insider reported in our analysis of the first quarter, that the fall in revenues was due primarily to a shift in a particular brand of film, which would normally be shown in the March quarter, but was shifted to the June quarter. The latest results are confirmation of this.
In the three months to March, operating cost fell by $16 million or 10 percent, while administrative cost was up 11 percent to $34 million. In the 2012 quarter, Palace generated income of $193.5 million, this was down 21 percent or $41 million to $152.3 million in the 2013 quarter. The fall-off in 2013 comes against the background of the company introducing a new product, the showing of live operas on screen and an encore season of opera’s best in the summer. Without them, revenues would have been lower.
June quarter | Gross margin climbed in the June quarter compared with 2012, but year to date, it just barely moved. Administrative cost was kept under raps for the year, moving from $138 million to $147 million, less than 6 percent but for the latest quarter it is up by a much larger 23 percent.
Palace had cash funds and investments of $124 million million at the end of the financial year, which is up from $80 million last year. Working capital would appear to be tight with current assets at $195 million and current liabilities of $173 million. Loans amount to $40 million with equity of $300 million.
Related posts | Palace’s $22m 3rd Qtr hit
Photo via: www.PalaceAmusement.com
Palace’s $22m 3rd Qtr hit
While many local companies suffered from the negative effects of reduced profit due to costs associated with the write off of unrealised capital gains on government bonds, Palace had a totally different experience. Net results for the March quarter fell sharply to a loss of $22 million from a profit of $2.65 million in 2012. Nevertheless, thanks to a strong first half, the company reported a $8.2 million loss compared to a profit of $5.3 million earned for the nine months of the previous year.
Operating cost fell by $16 million or 10 percent for the quarter while administrative cost was up 11 percent to $34 million but it was the slide in income that was noticeable and probably worrying. Admittedly, the March quarter is usually the worse quarter the company faces. But it is the sharpness of the drop that is surprising. In the 2012 quarter, Palace generated income of $193.5 million, this fell 21 percent or a whopping $41 million to $152.3 million.
Interestingly, the 2013 revenue performance is only 8 percent better than the 2011 quarterly income even as inflation would have affected cost and the price for goods and services sold by Palace would have gone up since 2011. The fall off in 2013 comes against the background of the company introducing a new product, the showing of live operas on screen and an encore season of opera’s best in the summer. Without them, revenues would have been lower. Year to March, the company recorded revenues of $584.7 million that is lower than the $599.5 million generated up to March 2012.
Data on the individual cinemas indicates that the sharp fall in revenues was across all locations except Palace Cineplex. Carib revenues fell $13 million, Cineplex was up $1 million, Palace Multiplex in Montego Bay dropped $13 million and Odeon in Mandeville fell by $4 million. The falloff in the two rural cinemas was far worse than for Carib, in relation to the income for the 2012 March quarter.
The picture up to the December results suggested that 2012/13 would have been by far the company’s best year, but the poor third quarter results have changed the outlook for full year’s profits completely, as it will be nigh impossible to overcome the negative impact of the loss made in the latest quarter. ICInsider understands that the fall in revenues is due primarily to a shift in a particular brand of film which would normally be shown in the March quarter but will be shown in the June quarter.
In spite of the quarterly loss, Palace had cash funds of $60 million at the end of March, while current assets exceed current liabilities by $36 million. Loans amount to $42 million with equity of $271 million.
Photo via: www.PalaceAmusement.com