Trading plunged to start the second quarter on a negative note following a big surge in the market index last week, with the All Jamaican Composite Index plunging 12,007.10 points to 371,750.11 and the JSE Main Index dived 8,768.59 points to 331,767.29 at the close of the Jamaica Stock Exchange Main Market on Monday.
At the close of trading, after a 26 percent fall in the volume of stocks traded with an 82 percent lower value than on Friday, resulting from trading in 57 securities compared to 60 on Friday, with 13 rising, 29 declining and 15 ending unchanged and ended with the JSE Financial Index losing 2.65 points to close at 76.48.
A total of 18,209,479 shares were traded for $105,140,128, down from 24,564,536 units at $579,763,758 on Friday.
Trading averaged 319,465 shares at $1,844,564, compared with 409,409 shares at $9,662,729 on Friday, compared to trading in March, with an average of 356,137 units at $3,015,416.
Transjamaican Highway led trading with 6.88 million shares for 37.8 percent of total volume, followed by QWI Investments with 4.42 million units for 24.3 percent of the day’s trade, Wigton Windfarm with 1.83 million units for 10.1 percent market share, Sagicor Select Financial Fund with 1.19 million units for 6.5 percent market share and Supreme Ventures with 1.09 million units for 6 percent market share.
The PE Ratio, a formula used to compute appropriate stock values, averages 13.8 for the Main Market. The JSE Main and USD Market PE ratios incorporate earnings forecasted by ICInsider.com for companies with the financial year ending between November 2022 and August 2023.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows eight stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and two with lower offers.
At the close, Barita Investments climbed 78 cents to close at $79.98 after an exchange of 147,819 shares, Berger Paints rallied 49 cents to end at $8.69 with a transfer of 27,694 stocks, but only after hitting an intraday 52 weeks’ low of $7.50, Caribbean Cement dropped $4 after finishing at $56 in an exchange of 31,574 stock units. Eppley shed 50 cents in closing at $37 after an exchange of 1,475 units, Eppley Caribbean Property Fund fell 50 cents to $44.50 with 1,074 stocks crossing the market, First Rock Real Estate dipped 93 cents after ending at $11.05 and closed with 59 units being traded. GraceKennedy popped $3.50 to close at $82.50 in switching ownership of 10,025 stock units, Guardian Holdings lost $9.99 to end at $485 after exchanging 63 shares, JMMB Group declined $1.42 in closing at $31.83, with 88,481 units crossing the market. Key Insurance shed 49 cents to end at $3 in trading 5,110 stocks, Margaritaville lost $2.64 to close at a 52 weeks’ low of $14.97 with 979 shares clearing the market, Massy Holdings dropped $3.75 to end at $85.20 after a transfer of 5,985 stock units. Mayberry Jamaican Equities fell 77 cents in closing at $12.23 while exchanging 40,327 stocks, Pan Jamaica Group, with an expanded portfolio of companies following the acquisition of companies that were part of Jamaica Producers, declined $2 to $52 with an exchange of 5,731 units, Proven Investments dipped 99 cents after ending at $26.50 with investors transferring 22,769 stock units. Sagicor Group dropped $2.10 in closing at $50.90, with 373,953 shares crossing the market, Scotia Group declined 98 cents to close at $34 in trading 12,149 stocks, Seprod dipped $10 to $67.50 as investors exchanged 1,928 units. Stanley Motta lost $1 after ending at $5 after 25,109 stock units passed through the market, Supreme Ventures shed $4.50 to end at $26 with the swapping of 1,094,398 shares and Sygnus Real Estate Finance gained 70 cents to close at $10, with 20,009 stocks changing hands.
In the preference segment, Productive Business 10.50% preference share fell $8 to end at $1250 in an exchange of two stock units and Jamaica Public Service 7% shed $35.11 to $128.99 with a transfer of 434 shares.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.
ICTOP10 rides big weekly JSE rally
While the Main and Junior Markets rebounded sharply during last week, ICTOP10 stocks ended with varying movements, with gains and losses in both markets hitting 16 percent. It was an interesting week in which the main market gained over 18,000 points for the week with all days closing with gains including the Friday of the previous week, but it sits at a resistance level and is a signal worth watching.
The Junior Market put on 200 points since Thursday, March 23 and had one minor negative trading day during the period, however, the last day accounted for nearly half of the above gains.
While Bank of Jamaica held their overnight rates at 7 percent, their CD rate that fell 16 percent in the previous week to an average of 8.85 percent from over 10 percent where it stood for several months, BOJ offered a huge $35 billion this past week, but the average rate fell to 8.49 percent after $70 billion chased the amount offered. Importantly, the central bank cut the stock of CDS it holds from a peak of $109.5 billion on March 3, but at the latest auction, it amounted to $88.85 billion, marginally up from $82 billion on the 17th.
At the end of the past week, in the Junior Market TOP10 four stocks gained and five declined. KLE Group jumped 16 percent to $1.69 and Tropical Battery rose 7 percent to close at $2.08. General Accident dropped 16 percent to $5 and Everything Fresh fell 6 percent to close at $1.45.
The Main Market TOP10 JMMB Group climbed 15 percent to $33.25, Jamaica Broilers gained 12 percent to $37.10, Caribbean Producers popped 7 percent to $9.70 and NCB Financial with a rise of 6 percent to $75. Berger Paints fell 10 percent to $8.20 and 138 Student Living with a fall of 6 percent to $5.05.
The Junior Market has a long term pattern, with the market starting to rise around a month before quarterly results are due and declining shortly after results are released. This is a pattern worth noting that can be built into investment decisions that can improve returns.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.6, well below the market average of 14.2, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.8 compared with the market at 11.4. The differences are important indicators of the level of likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 248 percent and the Main MarketTOP10 by an average of 267 percent, by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The Junior Market has 11 stocks representing 23 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 28, averaging 20.4, well above the average of the market. The top half of the market has an average PE of 16, suggesting that this may be a logical value for junior market stocks currently.
The Main Market 19 highest valued stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 115, with an average of 29 and 21 excluding the most valued stocks and 20.5 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation.
The above average shows the extent of potential gains for the TOP 10 stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
Key Insurance highest ICTOP10 jumps 37%
Stocks dropped to their lowest levels this past week after falling even lower than they did to close of the previous week as investors continue to shun the market, but the time is not far off that Bank of Jamaica will begin lowering interest rates and fuel a market resurgence as they sent the clearest signal that interest rates have not only peaked but will be headed downwards this past week.
The first signs of an easing of rate came this past week with BOJ CDs rates plunging 16 percent to an average of 8.85 percent from over 10 percent where it stood for several months. Importantly, the central bank cut the stock of CDS it holds from a peak of $109.5 billion on March 3, down to $82 billion at the latest auction, far less than from mid-January to the end of February, as more than $58 billion chasing after the $18 billion that was offered last week. While this happened the foreign exchange market looks very liquid with the rate falling under $152 to one US dollar from $155 earlier in February.
Performance in the past week for the Junior Market TOP10 saw only two stocks rising and seven falling, the majority of the declining stocks registering fell by 3 percent or less. General Accident jumped 20 percent to $5.98, but the bids are not there at the close, to support the price, but selling has abated for this stock currently. Everything Fresh rose 9 percent to close at $1.55 and actually traded at $1.65 during the week. Iron Rock Insurance fell 13 percent to $2 and Caribbean Assurance Brokers lost 6 percent to $1.90.
The Main Market TOP10 saw the highest gaining stock rising just 34 percent, after Key Insurance jumped to $3.50 and was followed by 138 Student Living with an 8 percent rise to $5.40, but Caribbean Producers dropped 8 percent to $9.07. All other movements were 3 percent or less.
The Junior Market has a long term pattern, with the market starting to rise around a month before quarterly results are due and declining shortly after results are released. This is a pattern worth noting that can be built into investment decisions that can improve returns.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.5, well below the market average of 13.2, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.9 compared with the market at 10.6. The differences are important indicators of the level of likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks. The Junior Market is projected to rise by 248 percent and the Main Market TOP10 an average of 274 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The Junior Market has 9 stocks representing 19 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 24, averaging 19, well above the average of the market. The top half of the market has an average PE of 15, suggesting that this may be a logical value for junior market stocks currently.
The Main Market 16 most valued stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 100, with an average of 29 and 19 excluding the highest valued stocks and 18 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation. The above average shows the extent of potential gains for the TOP 10 stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.