Govt set to wipe out deficit

The budget presented by the Government of Jamaica to the nation in April did not paint a full picture of what was on the cards. That is, the full wiping out of the fiscal deficit in one year and laying the foundation for a reduction in the heavy debt to GDP load the country has borne for decades. The government is well on target to do this based on the performance to September with a deficit of only $6.6 billion and the heavy inflow of taxes between January and March 2014.

After faltering in August partially due to the last day’s collections not counted in the August fiscal numbers, revenues in September shot past the forecast to land the overall year to date collections right on target but for a half a billion dollar shortfall, which was more than made up for by a near $11 billion savings on the expenditure side. The fiscal deficit is well ahead of forecast at just $6.6 billion versus a target at this stage of $17 billion.

Although revenues as a whole are on track, there are areas of concern where intake is less than planned by a fair degree. Capital and non-tax revenues are up by $5 billion year to date which helped to offset fall off in other areas. Also of note, travel tax, which is up by 69 percent due what the Ministry says is past due amounts that being collected, but this is not sustainable at the same pace going forward once the arrears are cleared.

Negative inflows | International trade is down year to date by $2.6 billion; this would have been far worse but for the positive collections for travel tax. Production and consumption taxes have not performed badly although down by $388 million from a forecast of $58.5 billion as education tax is down versus budget by 8 percent to $8.6 billion. Betting and gaming tax is down 38 percent at $1.13 billion. In the area of income taxes, PAYE is down by 6 percent or $2 billion to $30.4 billion, corporate taxes are up by $800 million as tax on dividends fell by $765 million or 57 percent against forecast. As government paid out less interest on the debt, the collection for tax on interest income fell.

Less debt | Government borrowed nearly $10 billion less than budgeted and cut the interest paid for servicing the monstrous debt by $5.6 billion. Payments for other housekeeping expenses other than wages declined by $2.6 billion, in addition $1.7 billion was spent on capital items during the six months period.