The Jamaica Stock Exchange main market dropped sharply on Wednesday with increased market activity but with rising stocks outpacing falling ones by 80 percent.
At the end of trading, All Jamaica Composite Index dropped 3,927.81 points to 412,448.36 and the JSE Index declined by 3,578.68 points to close at 375,787.14.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 5 stocks ending with bids higher than the last selling prices and 2 closing with lower offers, suggesting a fairly even match, between rising and declining stocks on Thursday.
A total of 32 securities traded, including 3 in the US dollar market, compared to 31 trading on Tuesday with the prices of 14 securities rising, 8 declining and 10 holding firm.
Jamaica Producers traded at 52 weeks’ high during the day, of $33 and Jamaica Stock Exchange traded at an intraday high of $9.20, but both fell back by the close, while Mayberry Investments closed at an all-time high of $10. Barita Investments ended at a 52 weeks’ closing high of $19.50, Salada Foods closed at a 52 weeks’ high of $26 and Radio Jamaica traded at a 52 weeks’ intraday low of 80 cents.
Trading ended with major contraction in the value of trades in the main market, compared to Tuesday’s levels, with 16,795,459 units valued at $285,223,377 versus 9,264,518 units valued at $430,892,380 changing hands on Tuesday.
Trading closed with Wisynco Group leading with 10,860,918 units accounting for 64.67 percent of the day’s volume, followed by Grace Kennedy with 1,515,091 units or 9 percent of total volume traded and Supreme Ventures with 1,278,248 units and 7.6 percent of the day’s volume.
Trading resulted in an average of 559,849 units valued at $9,507,446, in contrast to 330,876 shares valued at $15,389,014 on Tuesday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to 406,855 shares, valued $7,710,282 and previously, 386,273 shares, valued $7,433,795. September closed, with an average of 1,022,243 shares valued $15,752,876, for each security traded.
In the main market activity, Barita Investments rose 70 cents to end at a 52 weeks’ close at $19.50, trading 8,100 shares, Caribbean Cement rose 86 cents to finish at $49.95, in exchanging 34,400 shares, Grace Kennedy lost 55 cents and ended trading 1,515,091 shares at $60.95, Jamaica Broilers declined by 41 cents in trading 63,380 stock units to close at $32, JMMB Group rose $1 and ended at $37, with 395,580 shares, Kingston Wharves jumped $8 in exchanging 1,670 stock units, to close at $83, Mayberry Investments rose 80 cents to finish at a record $10, trading 101,446 stock units, NCB Financial Group lost $2 and settled at $128, with 159,788 units, 138 Student Living fell 40 cents and closed at $4.60, with 279 stock units trading, Salada Foods jumped $5.29 to a record close of $26 in trading just 200 shares, Sagicor Real Estate Fund fell 80 cents to end at $14.20, trading 155,029 shares, Sterling Investments dropped $4.30 and closed at $23.30 with 29,383 shares changing hands, Supreme Ventures dived $5.40 to end at $15.50, with 1,278,248 shares changing hands and Wisynco Group rose 40 cents to $10, trading 10,860,918 shares.
Trading in the US dollar market closed with 50,462 units valued at $10,394, changing hands, Proven Investments traded 45,387 shares to close at 22 US cents and Sygnus Credit 5,075 units and rose 0.5 cents to end at 11.5 US cents. The JSE USD Equities Index lost 1.02 points to 170.72.
Review of 2018 stock market forecast
“ Assessment of the market, suggests that 2018 could be a grand year, with overall price gains likely to be in excess of 40 percent”, a quote from IC Insider.com in February, this year.
“Based on projected earnings for 2018, the average PE ratio suggests that main market stocks should grow by 26 percent. Falling interest rates could add another 20 percent to gains during the year, bringing overall gains in excess of 40 percent.”
“Technical readings of the market have the main market heading initially to around 390,000 points or 23 percent ahead of the December close, for the all Jamaica Index, before resistance sets in and then moving much higher, later on’ the IC Insider.com forecast for 2018 stated.
With almost three more months to go, before the year ends, the main market is broken through the 390,000 points mark to be up 31.7 percent for the year to date, there seems no stopping it for now.
The report in February stated that the main market was caught in a wedge formation, trading just below the upper end of channel that can be traced to late 2015. The wedge could hold the market in consolidation mode for a short time, a month or two, before breaking out, most likely to the upside.
IC Insider.com projects that many of the main market heavy weights will find it tough to repeat the strong gains they enjoyed in 2017, if that is the case, their impact on the market index is likely to be less than for 2017. Another factor that could make a repeat of 2017 tough, is the movement of interest rates. Last year, Treasury bill rates fell 29 percent from 6.56 percent to 4.83 percent, that level of decline, is unlikely to happen in 2018, even as some of the decline in the latter part of 2017 is yet to be fully reflected in the prices of stocks to date and should positively affect prices in 2018. IC Insider.com is forecasting rates on 182 days Treasury bill hitting 3 percent by the end of the 2018 first quarter. Treasury bill rates in 2018 at 1.7 percent, have fallen more sharply than in 2017.
The original piece stated that “there are a number of other factors at play that are set to impact the market. Increasing employment is taking place with the highest number of persons employed in the country’s history. Attendant with that is the sharp fall in unemployment from more than 16.3 percent in 2013, to just over 10 percent in 2017. The annual net employment is growing around 30,000 persons per year and that could rise as the economy gains steam. This will mean more spending and increased tax collection for government. Alpart resumption of Alumina production is a big positive for the overall economy, for increased government revenues and more demand for local goods and services, some of which are provided by listed companies. The tourism sector is enjoying strong growth, apart from increasing foreign exchange intake for the country, will have direct impact on Jamaica Producers and Sagicor X Fund. Jamaica seems to be going through a construction boom with several new buildings under construction, Caribbean Cement and Berger Paints should benefit considerably from such developments.”
“More listings on the stock market will result in increased fee income for JSE and brokerage houses, from increased trading volumes.”
The TOP 10 stocks include a few surprises while there are others that sit just outside the top stocks that investors may still want to keep a keen eye on. Investors should be looking beyond 2018 as medium term gains beyond 2018 could be strong for stocks that will benefit from current developments, long term.
The TOP 10 selection is selling well below the average PE of the Main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at just over 6.3 versus nearly 12 at the end of 2017.
Barita Investments moved more into fee based income and that is working well for them, with sharp growth, while net interest income stagnates. The prospects for continued strong growth in fee income continues with more investors seeking better returns than in the fixed interest market. The company should see a change in ownership soon and that could see a more aggressive approach to management that could optimize returns from exiting business and newer lines. Unrealized gains on investment ought to be factored into its earnings in valuing the stocks and that would boost its value considerably, the market is not paying attention.
Berger Paints is set to be a big winner with increasing sales coming from a buoyant construction sector resulting in increased profit and what IC Insider.com expects to be a healthy dose of dividend payments. It could become the next Carreras from a dividend yield standpoint but with growing profits. The company will benefit from lowering of overhead cost which was evident in 2017.
Jamaica Broilers continues to grow organically and from new business being acquired. Growth will continue as the Haitian market deliver greater returns form a growing market while the poultry demand in Jamaica continues to grow.
Caribbean Cement will benefit from lower operating cost, increased sales and a planned cut in financing of the lease which is said will cut hundreds of millions of dollars out of it cost that could come close to $2 per share per annum.
Palace Amusement Company, currently enjoying sell out cinemas with block buster hit, is one of those unusual choices. It enjoys minimal trading but it could surprise on the upside if all goes well. Growth in the economy and increased employment will help to boost patronage going forward and will aid in profit growth as well.
JMMB Group put out outstanding Q3 results with a 39 percent increase in profit and strong gains in revenues, auguring well for 2019 outcome.
The growth potential remains strong and investors in the stock will reap rich rewards down the road. Just one stock that requires patience. By the way fees and commission income jumped an impressive 71 percent to $512 million in the quarter and 53 percent in the nine months, over the similar period in 2016 and should continue to do so going forward.
Radio Jamaica continues to disappoint with below expected revenues and profit. It could return to favour but needs to generate more income from advertising. This is one to accumulate for a payoff down the road.
The other three stocks, Sterling Investments, Grace Kennedy and Sagicor Group are undervalued and could deliver some decent returns to patient investors.
Below the TOP 10 are strong candidates to deliver decent returns this year and beyond, the list includes NCB Financial that is on a strong growth trajectory and recently listed Wisynco Group that should generate earnings around $1.10 for the 2019 fiscal year that starts in July.