Following historical record haul in remittances to Jamaica, the country saw a modest 1.4 percent growth in total remittance inflows for the first month of 2022 compared to January 2021 as a total of US$244.4 million entered the financial system, data recently released by the country’s central bank show.
In January 2021 inflows jumped nearly 33 percent from US$181.5 million. In 2021 inflows for January was the second lowest month of the year, following February that brought in US$236 million. In 2021 remittance inflows grew by US$592 million to US$3.5 billion.
The USA provided the largest amount of inflows accounting for 70.3 percent, up from 69.8 percent in January 2021. The UK contributed 11.1 percent, followed by Canada and the Cayman Islands, with 9 percent and 5.7 percent respectively, the Bank of Jamaica report indicated.
Remittances inched higher for Jamaica
Bank of Jamaica inflation response worsened
Inflation in Jamaica is getting better, not worse, contrary to the recent statement by the Bank of Jamaica, to the contrary in justifying a steep hike in overnight deposit interest rates by 1.5 percent to 4 percent starting on Monday.
BOJ hikes overnight rate.
Yes, the point to point inflation rate moved up to 9.7 percent, giving the impression that inflation is getting out of hand, but that number does not tell the true story. The 4 percent interest rate will help savers get a more realistic rate on their savings.
The bank really had no significant new information that they did have when rates were raised between September and December, last year. If anything, the new information indicates clearly that inflation is moderating not worsening.
What are the facts? In January and February, last year inflation was negative 1.6 and 0.1 percent respectively and jumped to 1.1 percent in March while slipping to 0.5 percent in April, for a negative year to date inflation then, of 1.1 percent. Between May and September when BOJ moved rates up by 100 basis points inflation was the worse for the year at 1.32 percent per month or annualized 16 percent that is well up from 0.48 percent per month or 5.76 percent. The high rate of inflation suggests the bank should have moved earlier to raise rates than in September.
Inflation since the first interest rate move in September, is running at 0.6 percent per month or 7.2 percent per annum just slightly above the BOJ range of 4-6 percent. The average for the last three months is running at an average of 0.47 percent or 5.64 percent annualized, well below the 16 percent per annum for the period indicated above.
Negative inflation in January 2021 was due to a steep decline in the prices of vegetables and tubers a development that was not sustainable, as such the underlying inflation was more likely positive than negative as such the 0.6 percent increase in January this year is not out of line and is better than the December rate of 0.8 percent. The question to be answered is what can justify a sharp interest rate increase to tame much more moderate inflation over the past three months compared to when the rates were initially raised in September and on two other occasions last year by much smaller amounts that that starting on Monday?
Time for Byles to go
In the 1990s, the then government of Jamaica appointed a failed central banker in an African country as governor of Bank of Jamaica in combination with a failed Minster of Finance they collectively destroyed the Jamaican economy and the financial sector by maintaining stiflingly high interest rates that have set back this country for decades.
Now that the country is recovering from those calamitous years, the country employed what is in effect a retired non practicing economist as head of the central bank. No major country in the world has placed such a person as head of their central bank.
In a letter to the Minister of Finance around April last year Byles advised the MOF why rates had to be kept at levels well below inflation. According, to the central bank that was to facilitate growth and any increase, would trim the growth level quite a bit.
In reality, GOJ was the major beneficiary of the low interest rates and lenders to banks were subsidizing the goverment by getting little interest on their money.
This publication had repeated disagreed with the BOJ policy of abnormally low interest rates as having disastrous consequences for the economy. The chickens are now rooting and the central bank is panicking with the latest measured knee-jerk 1.5 percent in its overnight rate to 4 percent.
Up to June last year Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) held the policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50 percent per annum. According to the Central Bank, the decisions taken then by Bank of Jamaica are aimed at ensuring that the annual increase in the prices of consumer goods and services remains within the Bank’s inflation target of 4 to 6 percent.
The decision to hold the policy rate unchanged was made by a unanimous vote by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (The Committee/MPC). This decision was based on the MPC’s assessment that, despite recent increases in international commodity prices, the existing stance of monetary policy remains appropriate to support inflation within the target range over the next two years. The Bank’s accommodative monetary policy posture is also aimed at supporting a recovery in economic activity in Jamaica.
Something seems to have blinded the eyes of the MPC who met again in August but only move rates by a huge 100 basis point then and now 1.5 percent. All talk of growth has completely gone from the justification for keeping rates well below inflation.
The message seems clear, the central bankers and the MPC are clueless as to what they are dealing with.
Bank of Jamaica jacks up interest rate 1.5%
Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) jacks up its policy interest rate offered to deposit-taking institutions on overnight placements by 150 basis points to 4 percent per annum, effective 21 February 2022 and brings to four the number of increases implemented since September 2021.
BOJ interest cuts overnight rate.
According to a release from BOJ the bank also decided to pursue stronger measures to contain Jamaican dollar liquidity expansion and to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market. Finally, consistent with meeting its inflation target sustainably in the medium term, the MPC agreed to consider maintaining or expanding its suite of policy measures at subsequent policy meetings. This position is subject to inflation, inflation expectations and other macroeconomic data evolving as projected.
In general, monetary policy decisions taken by Bank of Jamaica are aimed at ensuring that the annual increase in the prices of consumer goods and services (i.e. inflation) remains within the Bank’s inflation target of 4 percent to 6 percent, the bank stated.
Jamaica’s remittances hit US$3.5B in 2021
Total remittance inflows for December last year rose 6.7 percent to US$321.6 million compared to US$301 million generated in 2020 as total inflows for 2021 ended at $3.5 billion an increase of 20.4 percent or $600 million more than the $2.9 billion in 2020 bank of Jamaica report shows.
Total inflows are up by $1.09 billion over the inflows of $2.4 billion in 2020. The growth in the last two years has been the best since going back to 2007. The rate of increase in the last seven months of 2021 grew at an average of 9.5 percent over the same period in 2020 an indication that growth in 2022 is unlikely to be the average of 20.4 percent for 2021 or the 20.8 percent in 2020 over 2019. If the rate falls to say seven percent which is slightly above the increase in last year’s December total inflows would be in the order of $3.75 billion or $250 million more than for 2021.
Remittances on track to exceed US$3.5B
Remittances inflows to Jamaica surged to US$3.18 billion for the first 11 months of 2021 after pulling in US$274.5 million in November, an increase of 15.6 percent or US$37 million over the comparative period in 2020, data out of the Bank of Jamaica shows.
The performance for November puts the total intake for 2021 above the US$2.9 billion hauled in for January to December 2020. The outturn for 2021 seems set to exceed $3.5 billion for the year when the final numbers are tallied for December.
Based on the performance to date and the consistency of the monthly increase the 2021 inflows seem set to exceed by $1.1 billion the inflows of US$2.406 billion the country received in 2019 and just over $600 million more than the total for over 2020.
Data show Jamaica receiving around $2 billion more inflows in the last two years over and above the trend up to 2019. Between 2007 and 2019 inflows grew around US$1 00 million per annum, with no growth in inflows in 2015, 2017 and 2018. The increase in 2020 and 2021 broke the trend of low growth experienced since 2007.
Persons within the financial sector attribute the increased flows to a number of factors including many Jamaica who lives abroad buying real estate and contributing to the building boom in Jamaica others are of the view that the transfer of funds by the government’s fiscal stimulus to individuals, primarily in the United States is also a big contributor.
Jamaica’s NIR jumps $104m in December
One signal of the health of a country’s international trade can be viewed from the performance of its net international reserves, based on this, the Jamaican economy could be in a pretty decent shape.
Jamaica has seen a bounce in remittances in the country climbing from just $2.4 billion in 2019 to $2.9 billion in 2020 and is expected to touch US$3.6 billion last year. In addition, tourism inflows have bounced back well in 2021, with preliminary data indicating that in December last year arrivals could be down 24 percent against that of 2019 before the disruptions in 2020 started, with all of 2021 down 45 percent on 2019. Bank of Jamaica reported that the country’s net international reserves rose US$104 million in December over November 2021 to close the year at $$4 billion and is up from US$3.1 billion at the end of 2020.
Get the most from credit cards
The Christmas season is here and persons will be spending above the normal levels in the earlier part of the year. The use of Credit cards will rise sharply and many will feel the pain of their spending when they face credit card payment in the first two months of 2022, yet there are ways to have your cake and eat it when it comes to the use of credit cards if some simple rules are followed.
Credit cards are extremely useful if managed properly, but the number of Jamaicans with credit cards is relatively small, with just under four hundred thousand according to data from the Bank of Jamaica. The same data shows debit cards numbering 4.34 million. Many persons seem to fear using credit cards that carry extremely high interest rates and penalties for missed payments. A number of persons have gotten into financial difficulties because of how they misuse them or just fail to manage them well.
How many persons know how to use these instruments to their advantage, with the possibility of nearly two months interest free credit.
Individuals should get to know all the terms of each card they hold. These include interest rates applicable, the date that interest will start to accrue if the amounts incurred are not paid within the time frame the statement indicates. Know the dates when statements are cut off as this can allow one to max out on the credit received without incurring charges. Both dates are shown on monthly statements but may vary from one statement to another. While the payment date will vary by a few days from month to month the date statements are printed are usually fixed. This latter date is most important if cardholders are to get the most out of their cards.
NCB Financial Montego Bay branch
Credit cards should be used to avoid paying the prohibited high interest rates. Rule one, do not use the cards unless the user knows where money will come from when the payment is due so it can be paid in full and on time thus avoiding the heavy interest cost.
Do not be lulled into paying just 10 percent per month that the banks entice cardholders to do, if you don’t pay in full when due there will be unnecessary expensive interest charges to bear. Get a regular bank loan instead. Remember that banks loan cost about 80 percent less than credit card interest.
The dates for the statement is of focal point for when the card is to be used. A few days before the cutoff date and the credit received is cut sharply to a few days compared to using them the day after the statements are printed. Where there is more than one card, alternate them to use the one that has the longest time to go before the cut off for printing statements, with the other to be used after the next cut off time. This way users will max out on the credit terms and save cash.
A card cut off for printing is say the 20th of the month, if the card is used on the following day a payment would not be due until the middle of the second month following the use of the card. Say the bank cuts off transactions and prints the statement on December 20 and the cardholder effects a charge on the 21st, payment will not due until mid-February resulting in almost two months of interest free credit. If the cardholder incurred the charge on the 20th, that amount would appear on the next statement normally due for payment by January next year, one full month ahead of a charge that was incurred just one day later.
If persons have the option to put off paying a bill before the statement date or a few days after the statement date such action will afford them one more month of interest free debt.
Jamaica’s remittances up again in October
Total remittance inflows climbed a respectable 8.8 percent for an increase of US$24 million to US$296 million, up from US$272 million in 2020.
The increase continues the robust growth remittance inflows enjoyed since May last year. It puts the total inflows for the year to date at US44 million short of the total intake for 2020, when US$2.905 billion was taken in for the year to the end of December. At the pace inflows have grown, the take for the current year could hit a record US$3.5 billion, data released by the Bank of Jamaica is suggesting.
Remittances jump 17% in September
Total remittance inflows in Jamaica jumped 17.2 per cent or US$44.8 million in September 2021 over the $260 million inflows for September 2020 and lifting the gross inflows for the year to date to US$2.6 billion, just US$300 million less than US$2.9 billion inflows for the 2020 calendar year.
The increase for the month is highly positive, in light of a strong 34.5 percent jump in September 2020 over the 2019 inflows for that month.
The total inflows for last year could be equalled or exceeded with the October numbers and could put the inflows for the year at US$3.6 billion by the end of the year. The numbers for September continues the robust monthly increase since last year May, except for a small decline of 2.4 percent in August this year. For the January to August 2021 period, remittance inflows to Jamaica grew by 25.4 percent to US2.3 billion, up from US$1.836 billion in 2020. Prior to August, inflows grew by 30.4 percent, with June and July being up 10 percent, well below 42 percent increase to May.
The data was obtained from the Bank of jamaica.
