JSE now at 40 months’ high
Trading resulted in the prices of 15 stocks rising, 4 declining as 22 securities changed hands, ending in 2,104,274 units trading, valued at $19,545,760, in all market segments.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index gained 1,419.14 points to 91,277.21, the JSE All Jamaican Composite Index rose 1,586.66 points to close at 100,770.45 and the JSE Combined Index gained 1,533.53 points to close at 92,909.60. The market is at its highest since January 5, 2012 when it closed then at 101,108.42 on the all Jamaican Composite index.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows 16 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 2 with offers that were lower.
Wednesday session closed with, Caribbean Cement gained 30 cents in trading 91,665 units at $3.30, Carreras having 4,200 units changing hands to end with a gain of $2, at a new 52 weeks’ high of $47, Gleaner closed with 295,600 shares being active to end at 95 cents, up by 5 cents. Grace Kennedy put on 51 cents with 198,238 shares traded, at $63.50, Jamaica Broilers traded 14,200 units at a new 52 weeks’ high of $5.10,for a 30 cents increase, JMMB Group traded 151,000 units at $7.50, Kingston Wharves
traded 66,666 shares at $6.51,as the price fell 46 cents. Mayberry Investments traded 200,000 units at a new 52 weeks’ high of $2.55, after putting on 30 cents on the price. National Commercial Bank had 17,584 units changing hands for 50 cents higher to end at a new 52 weeks’ high of $28.50. Sagicor Group traded 6,755 shares at a new 52 weeks’ high of $10.80, after gaining 14 cents, Scotia Group exchanged 10,923 shares for a new 52 weeks’ high of $23, with an increase of 28 cents, Supreme Ventures gained 30 cents in trading 20,000 units, at a new 52 weeks’ high of $3.50. Proven Investments traded 55,171 ordinary shares at 20 US cents, for a 2 cents increase, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.50% preference share, traded 185,000 units at $2.10 and Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference share traded 54,700 units at $3.20.
JSE breaks resistance & heading higher
Main Market| The JSE Market Index gained 1,387.58 points to 89,858.07, the JSE All Jamaican Composite index rose 1,551.38 points to close at 99,183.79 and the JSE combined index climbed by 1,275.93 points to close at 91,376.07. At the close the market had pierced the resistance just under 99,000 points on the all Jamaica composite Index and seems poised to test the next major level of 109,000 points.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows 17 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and just 2 with offers that were lower.
Cable & Wireless traded 1,365,296 shares at 52 cents, Caribbean Cement traded 9,060 units at $3, up by 30 cents, there was an attempt to trade at $3.30 but that trade was cancelled as it exceeded the level permitted at that time of the trade. The stock was responding to a big jump in the company’s first quarter results for 2015 with profit after tax of $248 million versus just $35 million the year before, these results suggest that full year earnings could rise to $1 per share, as such the stock has much more room to run. Jamaica Broilers ended with 39,344shares at $4.80, Jamaica Producers gained 50 cents with 12,000 units changing hands at $17.50, the Jamaica Stock Exchange had 150,000 units changing hands at $2.90. National Commercial Bank traded 13,860 shares to close at $28, for a gain of 99 cents. At the close there was a bid for 10,000 units at $28.10 and 600,000 units at $28. Pan Jamaican Investment climbed $3.97 to $60 with 6,550 shares, Sagicor Real Estate X Fund had a large trade of 873,309 units at $6.55,Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference share traded 246,146 units at $3.20 after gaining 13 cents. Scotia Group traded only 27,306 shares to close at $22.72 with a gain of 5 cents, Seprod traded only 353 units as the price jumped $2 to $18 and Supreme Ventures closed at a new 52 weeks’ high of $3.20 by gaining 10 cents with 49,476 shares trading.
Positive end to strong week – JSE
Main Market| The JSE Market Index gained 768.58 points on Friday to end at 87,414.75, for the week 2,324.62 points were added. The JSE All Jamaican Composite index rose 859.30 points to close at 96,452.04, for the week the index gained 2,599.03 points and the JSE combined index gained 739.54 points to close at 89,146.88 and put on 2,209.08 for the week.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows 14 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and only 2 with offers that were lower, a very strong indication of a robust day for gains on Monday.
In trading, Carreras has fully recovered from the sell off when the Government announced new taxes on cigarettes in February and traded 12,000 shares to close at new 52 weeks’ high of $46 by rising 95 cents, Grace Kennedy closed with 5,300 shares changing hands at $62.56 by gaining 36 cents. Jamaica Producers continues to trade in heavy volume, this week and closed the week with 753,915 units trading at $17, for a gain of 20 cents, JMMB Group had heavy trading amounting 10,617,440 ordinary shares valued at $79,623,408 to end at a new 52 weeks’ high of $7.50 after posting a 44 cents rise. Kingston Wharves’ 13,714 that traded led to a new 52 weeks’ high of $7, after putting on 10 cents, National Commercial Bank traded 21364 units to close at a new 52 weeks’ high of 26.72 and gained 2 cents but closed with the offer at $26.99. Pan Jamaican Investment traded 24,900 shares at $55.28 to record a 22 cents decline. Sagicor Group traded 882,127 shares ending at $10.50, Scotia Investments traded 113,900 units and gained 20 cents to end at $23.80 and Supreme Ventures traded 200,000 units at $2.85, down 10 cents but the bid ended at $3 to purchase 10,131 shares
Prices up in March down for year
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reports that for March 2015 that inflation rose by 0.5 percent over the February which had a fall of 0.7 percent. The calendar year-to-date inflation rate is minus 0.6 percent. This is the first increase in the index after recording four consecutive months of decline”, Statin said.
Contributing significantly to this advance in the index was a 2.9 percent increase in the index for the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels due mainly higher rates for electricity. Lower prices for vegetables and starchy foods helped in moderating the increase with a small reduction in prices.
The divisions that recorded increases in prices are, ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.3 percent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.4 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.3 percent, ‘Health’ 0.2 percent, ‘Transportation 0.7 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.1 percent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.3 percent ‘, ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 1.3 percent, while ‘Education’, and ‘Communication’ each remained unchanged.
BOJ cut interest rate
The Bank of Jamaica’s 30-day Certificate of Deposit interest rate was reduced on Friday, 17 April 2015 Thursday to 5.50 percent from 5.75 percent, the central bank announced on Thursday. This is the first such reduction since February 2013, when the rate was cut by 50 basis points from 6.25 percent to 5.75 percent.
BOJ in its release stated, “this adjustment to the BOJ policy rate, reflects the Bank’s expectation that the rate of increase in consumer prices is likely to remain low in the coming year”.
“The recently announced inflation rate of 4 per cent for FY 2014/15 is the lowest in 48 years. The sharper than expected decline in inflation for the fiscal year was due in part to the fall in oil prices but also to the moderation in price increases that has resulted from fiscal consolidation and economic reforms. The impact of these changes will help to moderate inflation impulses over the medium term” the central bank concluded.
The reduction is also in line with a decline in Treasury bill rates over the past year, coupled with increased inflows of foreign exchange into the system that led to some amount of revaluation of the Jamaican dollar.
GOJ should report 2015 deficit
Government of Jamaica is reporting a deficit of $39 billion on its operation to February, this year, just below the $40 billion projected and a primary surplus of $79 billion versus forecast of $83 billion.
With the budget for March this year indicating expectations for a surplus of $29 billion, the country should be seeing an overall deficit close to the $11 billion reflected in the 2014/15 budget. The primary surplus budgeted at $121 billion could end up around $116 billion unless there are extraordinary inflows or sharp cut in expenditure.
Overall revenues fell $12 billion for the 11 months while there were cuts of $9 billion in capital expenditure, wages $3 billion and interest cost almost $6 billion. PAYE delivered $3 billion more inflows than forecast and withholding tax performed better than forecast by $2.5 billion. Pulling down the revenues were Local GCT $7 billion, corporation taxes $7.5 billion.
Jamaica’s 2014 trade deficit falls
Jamaica’s expenditure on merchandise imports during January to November 2014 fell by US$280 million or 5 percent to US$5,287 million when compared to the same period in 2013. Earnings from total exports fell by US$109 million or 7.5 percent to US$1.35 billion. The trade deficit a narrowed to by 4.1 percent or US$171 million to US$3.94 billion, compared to the similar 2013 period.
Major contributors to the fall in imports were declines of Mineral Fuels with a decline of US$154 million or 7.9 per cent, food declined by US$51 million or 5.8 per cent, to US$837 million. Chemicals fell by US$130 million or 18.6 per cent, lower imports of ethanol products were the primary contributor to this decline. Beverages & Tobacco decreased by US$66 million, US$4 million or 6.1 percent below the US$71 million recorded in the similar 2013 period.
Increased imports took place in Machinery and Transport Equipment valued at US$847 million, which grew by US$14 million or 1.7 percent and Manufactured Goods grew by US$17 million or 3.1 percent to US$561 million.
Exports|Earnings from traditional exports increased up by US$19 million or 2.7 percent to US$739 million, due to increases in Mining and Quarrying but Non-Traditional domestic exports valued at US$549 million, fell 16.9 percent or US$111 million.
Remittances top $2.16b in 2014
Remittance inflows for 2014 exceeded the amount earned by Jamaica in 2013 by US$95 million or 4.6 percent, according to data released by Jamaica’s Central Bank.
The country saw total inflows of US$2.16 billion for the January to December period. The total flows are likely to be just under the $2.2 billion estimated inflows from the tourism sector for 2014.
Net remittances for 2014 were US$1.93 billion, representing a growth of US$102 million or 5.6 percent compared to 2013 and emanated from an increase in gross inflows and a reduction of outflows.
The increase in total remittance inflows reflected an increase of US$95 million in inflows through Remittance Companies. This increase was however partly offset by a decline of US$0.5 million in inflows from the Other Remittances sub-category.
Treasury bills rates mostly fall
Interest rates are down on the latest issue of treasury bills compared with the out turn in February, for the three and six months instruments but the 28 days instrument enjoyed a slight increase compared with the rate at the February auction.
The 182 days bill ended with an average rate of 6.99 percent and is back to the level at the January auction. The highest rate allotted for the latest issue is 7.16 percent, while $948 million chased after the amount offered.
The 91 days instrument attracted bids for $720 million and resulted in an average rate of 6.3 percent with 6.8 percent being the highest rate allotted. The average rate for the February auction came in at 6.88 percent.
The 28 days instrument attracted bids for $655 million and resulted in the average rate being 6.7278 percent with the highest rate allotted being 6.9 percent. The average rate for the February auction was 6.417 percent.
All three auctions had $400 million each on offer to the public.
GOJ has $15 billion hole in budget
Notwithstanding the good news for January, Phillips budget has a $15 billion gap between the revenues and recurrent and non-debt capital expenditure to be filled, if the government is to have another year of balanced fiscal operations. The situation can get worse if Phillips aggressive take on GCT and PAYE inflows don’t materialize. These two areas seem likely to underperform forecast, while corporate taxes could do far better that projections.
The government is projecting to collect around 5.5 percent more in revenues than for the year ending in March on the assumption that the short fall in revenues to January will be maintained at those levels. The 2014-15 budget projected revenues at $428 billion but it should end around $420 billion when the numbers are all in. the next fiscal year projection is for revenues of $448 billion. The projection for tax revenues is an increase of 7.5 percent to reach $402 billion from around $374 billion.
PAYE is to make a big jump of 13 percent to get to $76 billion from around $67 billion, for the March 2015 fiscal year. But while the government is projecting a huge increase in PAYE there is slower growth for education of tax, projected at $21 billion, up from $19 billion or 10.5 percent. Under normal circumstances education taxes should grow faster than PAYE in this fiscal year. The threshold for Income tax has been increased and would therefore mean that the PAYE would be paid on a smaller sum than for Education tax. GCT is projected to jump by $17 billion to $139 billion, a high 14 percent increase. Surprisingly, Corporation taxes are projected to enjoy no increase. That is a big surprise with a large portion of cost input this year having fallen significantly and should help improve companies bottom-line. The other element is that those lower energy cost for fuel and electricity will boost consumer spending somewhat and that will feed back into corporate profits, as such businesses should benefit in two ways.
Banking on a sharp increase in GCT and PAYE are inconsistent with an economy that projected to grow at no more than 2 percent in real terms and nominally, possibly 5-6 percent and an assumption that corporate taxes will be fall is inconsistent with the impact of the falling prices of electricity, gasoline and interest rates on profits.
Projected payments on recurrent expenditure is for $433 billion and capital expenditure of $29 billion and leaves a shortfall of $15 billion.
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