Jamaica could wipe out its fiscal deficit for the 2013/14 fiscal year if measures announced by the Government achieve the targets set. A primary surplus, the target that has been set, will translate to a surplus before interest cost of around $100 billion. The Minister of Finance spoke of a potential $17 billion savings from the swap out of old loans into loans with lower interest rates that would reduce interest cost to around $100-120 billion.

According to the Minister of Finance, the first debt exchange in 2009 saw the average coupon on outstanding domestic debt decline by an average of 650 basis points to 12.5 per cent. The JDX resulted in $700 billion domestic debt refinanced from an average of 18 per cent to 12 per cent; 25 new benchmark securities replaced 350 illiquid bonds; and 99.2 per cent participation — the highest on record world-wide.

The estimated annual interest cost savings for the Government was projected at $41 billion. In fact the government saved vastly more in the first full year as interest rates fell sharply afterwards.

The new debt exchange earlier in February of this year (JDX2) along with the tax package should see interest rates across the system fall as more funds are taken out of the economy with limited need to borrow new funds. This won’t happen immediately but over the course of the year. This will mean lower borrowing cost but also lower withholding taxes for government. The wiping out or virtual wiping out of the fiscal deficit will mean government will be borrowing no new funds from the local economy and could well repay some to the system.

Pressure will be eased off the Jamaican dollar and people should not be surprised if there is some revaluation of the dollar. The JDX2 debt exchange will not have the same impact as the first one on the business sector. For one, interest rates were in the mid-teens to mid-twenties when the first one was implemented. JDX2 is expected to save $17 million less than the $41 million estimated back in 2009 and is worth far less in real terms as inflation has made the savings worth about 50 percent or so less. Banks are less dependent on government paper for income as they have aggressively expanded their loan portfolio.

The tax package is a poor commentary on the government’s views on increased production and productivity. To add taxes on businesses that our main trading partners don’t have to bear is a direct hit on the country’s competitiveness. Increasing cost on production is clearly not the way to go but that is exactly what’s been done.

All in all, the main objectives of cutting the fiscal deficit quickly are right but many of the methods being implemented are the wrong medicine.

Related posts | Fiscal deficit target exceeded again | Gov’t raking in taxes | GOJ: Deficit cut

Image courtesy of StuartMiles/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

The rate of inflation as computed by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica seems well under control especially in light of the impact of the movement of the Jamaican dollar which would have had impacted on prices as well as the increase in the price of oil on the world market. The calendar year–to-date inflation rate was 4.4 per cent up to July. The fiscal year-to-date since April 1st and point-to-point rates were 1.6 per cent and 9.7 per cent respectively.

The All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ Consumer Price Index for July was 200.9. The rate of inflation was 0.5 per cent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point above the 0.2 per cent rate recorded for June 2013. The index for the heaviest weighted division ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ moved upward by 0.6 per cent mainly due to higher prices for ‘Fruit’ and Vegetables and Starchy Foods’. The index for the group ‘Fruit’ rose by 2.4 per cent, while ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ went up by 1.2 per cent. There were also upward movements of 0.2 per cent in the index for ‘Transport’ and 0.8 per cent for ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’, which are the second and third heaviest weighted divisions respectively.

‘Communications’ was the only division with a decline in its index. The 3.7 per cent decline resulted from reduced call rates following the decision of the Offices of Utilities Regulation to lower termination rates for telephone calls.

The other divisions that recorded increases were ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.3 per cent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 1.3 per cent, ‘Furnishings Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.5 per cent, ‘Health’ 0.1 per cent,  ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.6 per cent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.3 per cent, and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.7 per cent. There was no movement recorded for ‘Education.

There were increases in all three regions Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA) up by 0.8 per cent, Other Urban Centres (OUC) up by 0.5 per cent, and Rural areas increased by 0.3 per cent

Related posts | Business inflation expectations | Inflation slows to a crawl | Inflation up in May

Jamaica’s trade deficit narrowed for the first 4 months of this year by US$80 million as non-traditional exports jump by US$32 million to exceed traditional exports as traditional exports fell during the period and imports dropped. The overall traded deficit fell to US$1,522 million, down from US$1,602 million in 2012.

Domestic Exports | For the year to April, non-traditional exports increased by US$32 million or 12.4 percent to reach US$294 million. Its contribution to total domestic exports increased from 44.1 per cent in the January to April 2012 period to 50.7 per cent in the 2013 period, while traditional domestic exports fell to US$287 million by 13.6 percent or US$45 million when compared to the same period in 2012. The fall of traditional exports was impacted largely by the decline in “Mining and Quarrying” and “Manufacture”. Total export of goods is valued at US$605 million and is down from US$611 million in the 2012 period, a decrease of $6.6 million. The Jamaica Free Zone accounted for US$92 million of total exports during the 2013 period.

Imports | The country imported goods valued at US$2,127 million during the period, a decrease of US$87 million or 3.9 percent.  The value of imports, for all but three commodity groups declined. “Mineral Fuels, etcetera” despite its decline, had the largest share of imports representing 34.5 percent valued at US$733 million, “Machinery and Transport Equipment” valued at US$280 million, declined from the US$294 million recorded in 2012 by US$13 million or 4.5 per cent.  “Manufactured Goods” valued at US$175 million also decreased, moving downwards by US$27 million or 13.2 per cent.

Caricom| Imports from CARICOM for the first four months of 2013, fell by US$99 million or 28.4 per cent compared with 2012 and accounts for 11.7 percent of total imports with a value of US$249 million compared to US$347 million recorded for the 2012 period. “Mineral Fuels, etcetera” decreased during the 2013 review period, by US$111 million or 42.7 per cent and was valued at US149 million. Other notable commodity groups imported from the region included “Food”, valued at US$60 million, “Beverages and Tobacco” US$14 million, “Chemicals”, US$10 million, and “Manufactured Goods”, US$8 million.

Total exports to CARICOM for the January to April 2013 period was valued at US$21 million, representing a decline of US$2 million or 8.8 per cent. Domestic exports to CARICOM decreased to US$17.8 million and accounted for 3.1 percent. Re-export for the period decreased and was valued at US$3.2 million, a fall of US$0.6 million or 16.2 per cent.

For the first four months of 2013, Jamaica incurred a trade deficit with her CARICOM partners of US$227.8 million when compared to the US$324.4 million recorded for the first four months of 2012.

USA deficit big drop | During the month of April 2013, the United States of America (USA) remained Jamaica’s main trading partner with imports worth US$744 million and total exports of US$322.9 million. Jamaica’s trade deficit with USA was US$421.5 million, compared to US$565.5 million in the January to April 2012 period.

The trade gap narrowed by US$96.6 million or 29.8 per cent, due mainly to lower imports of “Mineral Fuels, etcetera”.