Business confidence drops 24%

Confidence level, which was at its highest for 2013 in September at 87.4 versus a low of 47.5 in April, dropped sharply in October to 66.5, a 24 percent fall.

Persons in the business sector were asked, “In general, do you think business conditions are better or worse than they were a year ago in Jamaica?” The survey was carried out on behalf of Bank of Jamaica.

Perceptions about future business conditions also fell but not as badly as for current conditions. The responses in September saw the highest reading for the year at 116.6 but it fell sharply to 98.6 in October a 15.5 percent fall. The findings are in response to the question “Do you think that in a year from now business conditions will get better or get worse than they are at present?” Although the survey did not give reasons for the decline, it seems to coincide with the falling rate of exchange of the local dollar and high inflation as well as the view that there is likely to be a 6 percent fall in the value of the Jamaican dollar a year from October this year.

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) undertakes surveys of businesses on behalf of the Bank of Jamaica to ascertain the expectations of economic agents about variables which are likely to have an impact on inflation in the near-term. In this regard, the survey captures the perception of Chief Executive Officers, Managing Directors and Financial Controllers about the future movement of prices, current and future business conditions and the expected rate of increase in wages/salaries. The most recent survey was conducted in October 2013 and had 300 respondents.