PNP’s solace from Johnson polls

July 18, 2020 by

According to the latest Bill Johnson polls, the Jamaica Labour Party is set to bury the Peoples National Party in the upcoming general elections. Still, the PNP can take some level of comfort in the fact Johnson’s polls are not always spot on in the past, especially far away from an election.  
The latest poll findings by Bill Johnson done for Mello TV, shows the JLP with 38 percent support and the PNP with 19 percent. The gap is vast. If achieved, it would result in a vastly worse political beating in modern times that occurred in the 1980 elections, with 58 percent of the popular votes for the JLP. The above numbers would translate to 67 percent to Labour party compared to a humiliating 33 percent for the PNP, few seats if any, would be left in the hands of the losing party. The 2020 polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percent.
In 2019, IC Insider.com made the following observation. “According to the Bill Johnson polls, the PNP headed by Peter Phillips will do a better job than Peter Bunting in the next general election. Johnson points to a factor of the majority of persons saying the country is going in the wrong direction, a sure sign the JLP should be concerned. History is not kind to Johnson words”.
In 2016, ahead of the General elections, Johnson said, “Certainly, at this stage, it is going to be an orange sky on election night rather than a green sky.” Pollster Bill Johnson commented after his then-recent national poll found the PNP four percentage points ahead of the Jamaica Labour Party, The Gleaner reported. “The movement definitely appears to be an orange movement and not a green movement,” said Johnson. “Everything seems to be pointing in the direction of a strong PNP victory,” he added. As everyone knows, no such development took place, as the election ended with a narrow defeat for the PNP.

Dr. Peter Phillips – PNP leader

ICInsider.com stated that “two factors in the Johnson polls that are questionable. Jamaica has not seen a voter turnout close to 70 percent since the 1980s so any poll with that level of likely turnout has several persons lying to the pollsters as the turnout is unlikely to exceed 55 percent. In the last election, it was under 50 percent.”
In the Eastern Portland by-elections in 2019, when the pollster, Bill Johnson asked constituents which of the two political parties they would vote for if a by-election was held today, 33 percent of respondents said they would definitely mark their ballot for the JLP. Four percent say they probably would vote JLP, while 25 percent said definitely the PNP. Two percent said they would probably vote PNP.
Assuming the JLP got no more votes than those who said they would vote for them and the PNP got the probable ballots as well as the definite obes, the results would have been, JLP 33 percent PNP 27 percent. That would translate to a popular vote count of 55 percent to 45 percent and, therefore, a comfortable victory. The final outturn was a very narrow victory of 51 percent to 49 percent and not the considerable lead the Johnson polls suggested. To be fair to Bill Johnson, the results of the Eastern Portland seat, was within the sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.
Johnson’s latest polls suggest that voter turnout at the election is likely to be 57 percent. That would be much higher than the last general elections of about 50 percent of the voters’ list, culled for dead voters. In 2007, the records show that 61.5 percent of voters list voted 2011 was slightly lower at 52.4 percent, the projected turnout suggest by the Johnson poll numbers may not be that far off. The last point to note is that polls tend to undercount opposition support and inflate that of the governing party, by two to three percentage points.

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Nigel Clarke future JLP leader

March 11, 2020 by

There is hardly anything that attracts great attention than doling out gifts, when combined with charisma, makes for a potent mix. That is precisely what Nigel Clarke did on Tuesday as he quietly set himself up as a strong candidate as a future leader of the Jamaica Labour Party.

Nigel Clarke, Jamaica’s Minister of Finance

Tuesday’s presentation was a vast improvement over his 2019 budget, one in terms of delivery. His delivery shows that he has the talent to more people on the campaign trail a considerable advantage for a politician to have. While Clarke will have competition from the likes of popular minister Tufton, minister Montique, he could also face competition from Kamina Johnson-Smith, one that few are looking at but her presentation at the last JLP conference suggests that she has the delivery skills to move people.
Whatever the position, Clarke holds a big trump card over the rest. He is bright, young, articulate and most importantly, controls the country’s purse strings. With an improving economy, he will be handing out goodies annually to voters for quite some time to come. That will cement him as the greatest Minister of Finance the country would have had as the country and people benefit from the improving tax collection and the significant cost savings of the reduction in interest cost from lower interest rates and lower debt.

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Barita’s unit trust leads this year

October 24, 2019 by

Many investors in the growing pool of equity-linked managed Funds are losing out on good returns being enjoyed by others in the Unit Trust industry because they fail to focus regularly eyes on their investment and compare the performance of their investment against others.
Investors wanting to enjoy stock market-like gains with reduced risk have several options, but paying attention to past performance can make a big difference between ordinary or excellent returns.
Investors should review the performance of their investment regularly at least once per year to see how well theirs stack up with similar forms of investment. This applies to stocks, Unit Trusts, money market instruments or any other forms of investment.
A good example is the long-term top unit trust performer Barita’s Capital Growth Fund that gained the most for the year to September, with an increase of 43.15 percent, outperforming by far the 23.69 percent posted in the corresponding period in 2018. The Fund’s twelve-month growth was an attractive 52.67 percent, the highest of all the local equity Funds.
New kid on the block JN Mutual Funds Global Equity Fund holds the number 2 spot with growth of 35.91 percent to October 2 and gained just over 31 percent for the last twelve months, followed by Sagicor Investments’ Sigma Equity Fund with, growth of 31.31 percent and sits at number 3 for 2019 to date but that is lower than the 36.47 percent at the similar point in 2018. VM’s Wealth Classic Equity Growth portfolio is the fourth-best performing Fund in 2019 with a gain of 29.78 percent and is significantly up on the 16.42 percent increase in the 2018 period. NCB’s E Fund is next with 29.26 percent for 2019, a huge turnaround compared to last year’s mere 2.96 percent gain.
Barita’s Capital Growth Fund that led the pack with growth for the twelve-month period is followed by Sagicor’s Sigma Equity Fund with 39.84 percent and in third place, VMWealth Classic Equity with 33.96 percent.
Scotia Premium Growth Fund delivered a 23.14 percent growth while JMMB Income & Growth Fund had gains of 22.64 percent for the nine months to September. Sigma Global Venture Equity Fund delivered gains of 18.22 percent for the year to September and 17.60 percent for the 12 months.
The bottom three performing equity Funds for the year to September are JN Global Diversified Income with 11.26 percent growth and a twelve-month growth of 9.10 percent as of October 2, JMMB Optimum Capital generated just 15.7 percent gains for the nine months, and 11.44 percent for the past 12 months.
The three best performing Funds, Sagicor’s Sigma Equity, Scotia’s Premium Growth and Barita’s Capital Growth, have been and continue to outperform the other players in the market over the long term, despite encountering periodic blips in their performance due to local and external economic conditions.
For the past 5 years to the end of 2018, the three best performing Funds were Sagicor’s Sigma Equity, Scotia’s Premium Growth and Barita’s Capital Growth, and for the 10 years to 2018, the same three Funds have been the top performers.

Filed Under: General News, JSE Combined, Stock Market Tagged With: , , , , ,

BOJ sold US$30m to FX market on Friday

October 20, 2019 by
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BOJ interest cuts overnight rate.

Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) intervened in the foreign exchange market on Friday, October 18, the first time since July by selling US$30 million at a weighted average rate of $138.87 by means of a flash intervention.
Bank of Jamaica introduced a bidding system when they intervene in the foreign exchange market officially called “Foreign Exchange Intervention and Trading Tool (BFXITT).” The system was introduced in 2017 with the central bank buying and selling funds in the market whereby authorized dealers and Cambios had bid for the amounts on offer.
Friday’s intervention was to address temporary demand and supply imbalances in the market Jamaica’s central bank stated. Friday’s intervention is the first being made since the central bank intervened with two flash sales on July 18 and 19th this year with a total sale of US$35 million and prior to, US$30 million on July 11. In 2017 and 2018 the central bank had regular weekly scheduled interventions in the market from August to October and November, but there has been none in 2019 after BOJ lowered the amount dealers had to surrender to the central bank from amounts they bought weekly.
The amount offered for sale on Friday attracted 42 bids amounting to US$72.6 million but just 17 were accepted with the highest bid at $139.15 and the lowest at $137. Bids at $138.65 got 33.33 percent of the amount applied for.
The intervention comes against the background of the country’s Net International Reserves climbing US$162 million, from US$2.936 billion at the end of August to US$ 3.098 billion at the end of September.

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PNP polling mirage

August 13, 2019 by

Dr. Peter Phillips – former Minister of Finance

The PNP rise united and one PNP team are in a desert and seeing a massive mirage but tell their supporters that the prize is at hand, nothing could be further from the truth, as they can’t tell them of the Tsunami ahead.
According to the Bill Johnson polls, the PNP headed by Peter Phillips will do a better job than Bunting in the next general election. Johnson points to a factor of the majority of persons saying the country is going in the wrong direction, a sure sign the JLP should be concerned. History is not kind to Johnson’s words. In 2016, ahead of the General election, “Certainly, at this stage, it is going to be an orange sky on election night rather than a green sky,” pollster Bill Johnson commented after his recent national poll found the PNP four percentage points ahead of the Jamaica Labour Party, The Gleaner reported. “The movement definitely appears to be an orange movement and not a green movement,” said Johnson. “Everything seems to be pointing in the direction of a strong PNP victory,” he added.
No such development took place, as the election ended with a narrow defeat for the PNP. But Johnson is not alone, poll results posted on February 22 showed, “the party standings in the latest RJR Group/Don Anderson polls show the governing People’s National Party (PNP) still ahead of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) but by only three percent, as against four percent one month ago.”
Polls taken well ahead of an election is not a very accurate indicator of the outcome. Polls taken when one party is very active and the other is not will be highly biased towards the active one.
Two factors in the Johnson polls that are questionable. Jamaica has not seen a voter turnout close to 70 percent since the 1980s so any poll with that level of likely turnout has several persons lying to the pollsters as the turnout is unlikely to exceed 55 percent. In the last general election, it was under 50 percent. The other error is that the feedback that the country is going in the wrong direction is a variance with several other factors in the country. It does not accord with business and consumer confidence levels that are at record levels. It does not conform to record levels of employment and record low levels of unemployment and most importantly, it is at a huge variable with the best predictor of election a year out, the Jamaica Stock Exchange performance. The latter is calling the next general election with its robust performance.
By the way, with both the Anderson and Johnson polls showing the JLP ahead how will the PNP heal the wound created by the leadership challenge before Prime Minister Holness takes advantage of it?

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How the east was won?

April 6, 2019 by

Annmarie Vaz winner of the East Portland seat.

Anne Marie Vaz increased her party’s support by a stunning 58 percent, over the JLP’s haul in the 2016 General Election to win the East Portland by-election on Thursday with just 11 votes less than 10,000.
At the same time, Damion Crawford only pulled out 5 percent more votes than was polled for the PNP, in 2016. The story gets increasing bad for the PNP and it is not just in this election. The writing was on the wall for years but poor candidature, by the JLP lent the view to many onlookers, that East Portland was safe PNP territory. The 2007, results with the PNP winning by less than 800 votes, should have sent a clear warning to them that things were changing rapidly.
In this latest election, the number of new voters on the list, grew by 5.6 percent, but Crawford’s increase of 4.8 percent was less than the rise in registered voters. Looked at differently, he picked up just 354 votes more than in the 2011 elections or only 3.8 percent more. On a net basis, he garnered only approximately 25 percent of new voters, while Vaz got 75 percent. This is consistent with a pattern seen island wide since 1993 and is one that is not likely to change, anytime soon.
The Labour party was able to get out their 8,000 voters of 2011 and add 24 percent more voters to it, in addition to commandeering the vast majority of new voters, the vote tally at the end of the preliminary count suggests.
The results on the surface is a major about turn for the seat. Closer examination of the numbers for a longer period tells a clear tale. The huge 2019 increase is due to a below performance for the JLP in the 2016 elections, when the votes by the party sank by a hefty 22 percent and  well against the national trend. The trend since the 1993 elections, suggests that the natural growth in party support should have seen them polling over 9,700 votes, just below the numbers she got in the latest polls.
The data also points out that the trend is indicating that the JLP should have polled around 2,000 more votes than they did, this time around.  Those voters are there in their corner based on the growth in support, reflected in the average gains in votes cast in prior elections. This bit of information is also reflected in public opinion voting survey data.

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IC Insider spot on for Portland by-election

April 4, 2019 by

Annmarie Vaz winner of the East Portland seat.

In an article published March 10, IC insider.com had this to say about polls, “observation of public polls for individual constituencies published in the past, show them to be unreliable, although they may well point in the right direction in some cases.”
The articles concluded, “historical trend suggests the likelihood of a close result, for the East Portland seat, but whichever party can mobilize voters to get the out turn back to the traditional level of 60 percent, will win.”
The results are now in, ending with a 51 to 49 percent split of the votes, with around 55 percent turnout.
The article stated that in the 2016 general election, the East Portland seat, had just 44 percent of registered voters casting votes, ranking it as one of the lowest rural area voter turnout. The low out turn suggests a high level of dissatisfaction with the parties’ representatives. The PNP picked up 57 percent of the votes to the JLP’s 42 percent in that election, a wider gap than in 2011 that moved contrary to the swing in overall general elections. The article was commenting on the results of two sets of polls that were carried in the Jamaica Observer, showing incredible substantial leads for both parties.
The results of the elections show the pollsters to be off the mark, but the results of the election, confirms that there is a continuing swing for the governing JLP, well over the level that saw them winning the 2016 elections.

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Filed Under: Breaking News, General News Tagged With:

Be a sceptic of constituency polls

March 10, 2019 by

Damion Crawford propective PNP Candidate

Ann Marie Vaz JLP propective Candidate

Observation of public polls for individual constituencies published in the past, show them to be unreliable, although they may well point in the right direction in some cases.
In the 2016 general election, the East Portland seat, had just 44 percent of registered voters casting votes, ranking it as one of the lowest rural area voter turnout. The low out turn suggests a high level of dissatisfaction with the parties’ representatives. The PNP picked up 57 percent of the votes to the JLP’s 42 percent in that election, a wider gap than in 2011 that move contrary to the swing in overall general elections.
There is no way that there will be a voter turnout near 100 percent. The St Mary by-election in 2017 saw a 3 percent swing away from the PNP to the JLP with 61.4 voter turn-out up from 60 percent in the general elections. With much focus placed by both political parties on the Portland seat, a turned out 60 percent is not unexpected, although that may be a tough target to reach.
Two polls have been put out, one showing a PNP victory and one a JLP victory but both can’t be right. In the 2016 general elections, some public political commentators rubbished the polls done by the Trinidadian firm showing a JLP victory while all local polls projected a PNP victory. One would be foolish to disregard the polls done by the Barbados entity showing a massive PNP victory. The data put out in the Jamaica Observer Sunday edition, suggests some major flaws in the date reported on. The numbers for Crawford at 53 percent and Vaz at 27 percent will not happen. That would result in a 80 percent voter turn-out, assuming that none of those persons who did not respond to the pollster, in fact vote. If the assumption is that no more than 60 percent of the electorate will vote then the turn out will be approximately 21,000. A 53 percent take would result in the PNP garnering 11,100 votes with the JLP having just under 10,000. The historical voting pattern suggests that Crawford is very unlikely to pick up that level of support. A 53 to 27 percent support for both parties would result in the winner getting 66 percent of the votes and the loser 34 percent and would represent a massive swing to the PNP of 8 percent and signal major trouble for the JLP and a solidification of Peter Phillips as head of the PNP. When all the issues are factored in, it looks like the support for the PNP is no more than 33 percent or just over 11,000 electorates if the turn out can rise to 60 percent, which is consistent with the results of the last two General elections.
The Jamaica Observer Polls commissioned polls show the JLP with a lead of 37 percent to the PNP’s 27. Such results would translate to a margin of victory of 58 percent to 42 percent and a major about turn in the constituency. Assuming a 60 percent voters turnout it would mean that the JLP would pick up 12,100 votes and the PNP 9,000 votes or just a tad more than they gained in 2016.
Data shows the JLP doing a far better job of getting out voters after the 1993 elections, except for 2016 when their vote numbers fell by 22 percent to a decline of 8 percent for the PNP and in 2011 when the PNP voter rate was higher than the JLP’s. From a gap of 3,300 in 1997, the Labour party reduced it to just 795 in 2007 and 1,246 in 2011 but saw the gap widen, with much less votes in 2016, with a margin of 2,276 votes. This change was opposite to general trend of a swing to the Labour party in 2016 island wide.
Historical trend suggests the likelihood of a close result, but whichever party can mobilize voters to get the out turn back to the traditional level of 60 percent, will win.

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Huge 44% drop in Jamaicans murdered

January 16, 2019 by

Murders in Jamaica have plummeted by a huge 44 percent in the first 14 days of 2019, compared to the similar period in 2018.
According to Radio Jamaica murders for the first 14 days of 2018 is 37. In 2018, Television Jamaica reported in 2018, that Police Crime Statistics reported that Jamaica recorded 61 murders between January 1 and 13, last year. When the data is adjusted to reflect similar number of days, the rate of decline  over last year is an incredible 44 percent and now places murders below 1,000 per annum if the trend should hold. The data is for just a few days of the year and may or may not hold but the dramatic decline is worth watching.
RJR was reporting on an increase in murders in Trinidad and Tobago, with homicides hitting 20 as of Wednesday morning and compares to Jamaica with a population twice the size of Trinidad and Tobago that recorded 37 murders as at January 14.

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Sterling must change rights deadline

January 4, 2019 by

Sterling Investments

Jamaicans have the view that the local capital market is regulated but developments taking place in the country, suggest that they may be dead wrong.
Fontana goes to the market with an IPO and raises funds but the prospectus sates what will happen with multiple applications from one person or company, but the release from the broker handling the issue announces an allocation that is at variance with the terms of the prospectus. Almost two weeks have passed but there is no correction of the error, even as the JSE listing committee is expected to meet on Friday to approve the listing on the market, expected to take place on the January 9.
Sterling Investments is offering shareholders rights to subscribe for more shares at $3.08 with the opening date being January 4, 2019 with the last date for renunciation of rights and closing for existing shareholders being January 11.
On the surface that seems fine but shareholders are yet to receive their offer document and many will not get tit by the deadline date. The company should take the proper action and extend the deadline date. What is unfortunate is that the company is putting shareholders at a disadvantage to non-shareholders by given the latter a much longer time to apply for shares while shareholders are given very little time. It should be the other way around.
Thankfully, the matter of Barita Investments attempting to issue rights based purely on terms determined by directors has been withdrawn and is to go before shareholders at a general meeting. There should never be any doubt that shareholders must determine changes in the capital of a public company. After all, issuing of new shares can mean dilution of ownership interest. Some lawyers state that section 65 of the Company’s Act requiring a general meeting of shareholders for changes in share capital does not apply to the increase issue of new share but to the authorised share capital is incredible when the former has no impact on shareholders’ interest but the latter does.

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Discovery

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jak u babci: sekret idealnego ciasta na bułeczki Sekretny dressing zamieni ją w arcydzieło: wiosenna sałatka z boczkiem Idealne śniadanie dla całej rodziny – przepis na naleśniki na mleku Soczyste, smaczne: przepis na proste roladki rybne – pyszna przekąska w 5 minut Dekorowanie talerza serów: podstawowe zasady dla amatorów Chrupiące i mniej kaloryczne: gotowanie cukinii derunes Przepis na naleśniki bez mąki i nabiału: tylko 2 składniki – gotowe w 10 minut Najlepszy przepis na sylwestrowy stół: przygotowanie ciasta 'Broken Glass’ bez pieczenia Ani grama mięsa, ale nadal świetnie smakuje: niesamowity przepis na szybkie kotlety 7 ruokaa, jotka sisältävät runsaasti rautaa: syö ehkäistäksesi anemiaa Kuinka säästää ruoassa vahingoittamatta terveyttäsi: 10 vinkkiä ukrainalaisille Miten tehdä wc dachassa: suosituimmat menetelmät Parhaat tomaatin taimet: miten kasvattaa terveitä ja vahvoja taimia Kuinka keittää pastaa niin, ettei se tartu: vain yksi sääntö Miten poistaa kellastuminen paidan 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Miten päästä eroon kärpäsistä folk korjaustoimenpiteillä: 5 tehokasta menetelmää Paistan kalaa vain näin: se ei pala eikä hajoa 6 puuta, jotka kannattaa istuttaa pihallesi: puutarhan hyödyt ja hyvä energia Räjähdyksen räjäyttämä lasi: miten kerätä sirpaleet nopeasti ja millä peittää ikkuna Mitä sieniä voi korjata nyt: 5 syyskuun syötävää yksilöä Milloin kaivaa perunoita syyskuussa: vinkit ja onnenpäivät kuukalenterin mukaan 2 lusikallista tätä tuotetta ja hana kiiltää: kätevä hakkerointi kotiäideille Virhe voi maksaa ihmishenkiä: salaisuus turvallisimmasta kissan kuivikkeesta on paljastunut Suuret ja makeat: mitä vadelmia kannattaa ruokkia keväällä hyvän sadon saamiseksi Kuinka pakastaa ja sulattaa lihaa: salaisuudet ja vinkit Miljoona tulipunaista ruusua: lisää tämä kimppuusi, jotta se kestää kauemmin Salaisuus siitä, miten laihtua nopeasti ilman ruokavalioita ja urheilua: heti miinus 5kg Älä koskaan osta sitä: haitallisin juusto on nimetty Kuinka pestä keittiöpyyhkeet: Toimiva kätevä hakkerointi on nimetty Sato kaksinkertaistuu: miten paprikapensas muotoillaan oikein Näin avaat paketit helposti: ei enää tuskailua kaupassa Älä heitä pesukoneeseen: Levi’n toimitusjohtaja kertoi, miten farkut pestään oikein Mitä on ehdottomasti kiellettyä pestä koneessa: 6 ei-selvää asiaa Myytit ja todellisuus: mitä tarkoittaa, jos koira kaivaa kuoppaa Hiivalannoite kurkkujen kasteluun: vihannesviljelijöiden jaettu rezetas Tuoreen kalan 5 merkkiä, joista myyjät eivät kerro: Näin valitset maukkaan silakan Miten käyttää retkeilykaasukeitintä: vinkkejä ja turvallisuussääntöjä Tomaattien ruiskuttaminen ja käsittely tuholaisten varalta: 6 tärkeää asiaa heinäkuussa Tee tämä ennen älypuhelimen lataamista: akku ”kestää” 2 kertaa pidempään Miksi lisätä kanelia kukkaruukkuun: kokeneiden emäntien salainen elämänohje Miksi vessanpöntön kansi kannattaa sulkea huuhtelun yhteydessä: Muista elämää varten Valojen sammuminen Ukrainassa: vinkkejä kynttilän korvaamiseen talossa Unohda phytophthora tomaateilla: kansanhoito 100 % tuloksin