IC Insider spot on for Portland by-election

Annmarie Vaz winner of the East Portland seat.

In an article published March 10, IC insider.com had this to say about polls, “observation of public polls for individual constituencies published in the past, show them to be unreliable, although they may well point in the right direction in some cases.”
The articles concluded, “historical trend suggests the likelihood of a close result, for the East Portland seat, but whichever party can mobilize voters to get the out turn back to the traditional level of 60 percent, will win.”
The results are now in, ending with a 51 to 49 percent split of the votes, with around 55 percent turnout.
The article stated that in the 2016 general election, the East Portland seat, had just 44 percent of registered voters casting votes, ranking it as one of the lowest rural area voter turnout. The low out turn suggests a high level of dissatisfaction with the parties’ representatives. The PNP picked up 57 percent of the votes to the JLP’s 42 percent in that election, a wider gap than in 2011 that moved contrary to the swing in overall general elections. The article was commenting on the results of two sets of polls that were carried in the Jamaica Observer, showing incredible substantial leads for both parties.
The results of the elections show the pollsters to be off the mark, but the results of the election, confirms that there is a continuing swing for the governing JLP, well over the level that saw them winning the 2016 elections.

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