Murders in Jamaica have been on the increase since 1962, the year of independence and surged sharply after, averaging just under 1,000 per year between 1996 and 2003, peaking between 2004 to 2010 with an average of 1,545 per annum, followed by a substantially lower average of 1,136 between 2011 and 2016 with the average climbing back to 1,415 since then.
Close analysis suggests that murders in the country may have peaked but that there has been a steady decline since, with more to come. The decline this year is a continuation of the new downward trend.
In 1962, the year of independence for Jamaica, there were 63 murders which jumped by 153 percent over the 351 in 1979 to 889 in the politically charged murderous 1980. Murders have gotten out of control since, with respective governments unable to tackle this chronic problem and bring resolution to it.
From a surge in 1980, murders fell back to the 400 level but it gradually started to rise at the start of 1990 and broke the 1,000 mark in 1997 when there were 1,038 murders and remained elevated, hitting 1,471 in 2004 and then 1,674 the following year before hitting a new high of 1,683 in 2009.
In 2011, there were 1,133 murders down from 1,447 in 2010 following the incursion into Western Kingston by the security forces that seemed to have disrupted some of the criminal activities in certain areas in the country.
The accompanying chart shows murders peaking with a downward trajectory even before an 11 percent decline in 2023 to August. The data also shows that the upward trend was broken in 2010, with murders falling back below the red line, although it spiked higher for a few years, that has not really changed the downward drift as can be seen from the black line that is sloping downward after peaking in 2005. Barring some extraordinary developments murders are set to be lower than the 2023 figure and likely to be the in the range of 2018 to 2020 with an average of 1,316 murders.
The chart shows annual murder in Jamaica from 1962 onwards and reflects a scenario where the trend line in the early years put the country with a murder rate around 600 per annum assuming there were no developments to reduce the rate below that level.
Huge 44% drop in Jamaicans murdered
Murders in Jamaica have plummeted by a huge 44 percent in the first 14 days of 2019, compared to the similar period in 2018.
According to Radio Jamaica murders for the first 14 days of 2018 is 37. In 2018, Television Jamaica reported in 2018, that Police Crime Statistics reported that Jamaica recorded 61 murders between January 1 and 13, last year. When the data is adjusted to reflect similar number of days, the rate of decline over last year is an incredible 44 percent and now places murders below 1,000 per annum if the trend should hold. The data is for just a few days of the year and may or may not hold but the dramatic decline is worth watching.
RJR was reporting on an increase in murders in Trinidad and Tobago, with homicides hitting 20 as of Wednesday morning and compares to Jamaica with a population twice the size of Trinidad and Tobago that recorded 37 murders as at January 14.
