Activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange was low, resulting in the prices of 5 stocks rising and 7 declining as 18 securities changed hands, ending in 3,633,602 units trading, valued at $6,595,479, in all market segments.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator was reflecting a very strong signal, showing 13 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and only 1 stock with the offer lower.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index lost 552.75 points to 75,560.44, the JSE All Jamaican Composite index fell 618.05 points to close at 83,198.39 and the JSE combined index declined by 406.69 points to close at 77,394.93.
Gains| Stocks gaining with last traded prices, at the end of trading in the main market are, Caribbean Cement ended trading with 1,650 shares 10 cents higher to $2.50, Kingston Properties reached a new 52 weeks’ high in trading 8,300 shares to close 92 cents up at $6.90, at the close there was a bid to buy 191,700 units at $6.90 and an order to purchase 914,000 units at $6. Mayberry Investments ended trading with 187,117 units 7 cent higher to $1.52.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in the last traded prices are, Jamaica Money Market Brokers ending trading with 3,002 ordinary shares at $7. Jamaica Producers closed trading with 5,718 shares at $17.50, Kingston Wharves finished with 65,667 units at $6 and Pan Jamaican Investment ended trading with 34,067 shares changing hands at $60.
Declines| The last traded prices of stocks with losses at the end of trading in the main market are, Cable & Wireless closing with 2,927,292 units trading with the price slipping 3 cents, to 47 cents. Carreras finished with 4,936 shares trading lower by $1.05 at $36.20. Grace Kennedy ended trading with 3,098 shares changing hands to close down $2.50, at $60.50, Sagicor Group closed with 9,000 shares, 9 cents lower at $10, Salada Foods had 131,000 units trading, with the price slipping 19 cents to $7.81 and Scotia Group traded 26,480 shares and the price closed lower by 49 cents to $20.01.
Strong price gains ahead on JSE
US to normalise Cuban relations
The long period or US embargo in trade in goods and services, with Cuba since the Castro regime seized power in the late 1950s, seems set to be reversed, according to a report earlier today.
According to Bloomberg news U.S. will begin to normalize relations in a surprising move by the Obama administration that will loosen a trade and travel embargo that is among the last remnants of Cold War policy. The action means not simply the opening of a U.S. embassy in Havana but the lifting of restrictions that have limited commerce and kept aficionados from legally bringing Cuban cigars to U.S. soil.
The change in the US attitude could have far reaching implications for Jamaica and the rest of the region specifically, as it affect tourism trade.
Jamaican prices fall expect more
Prices increased for October, by a mere 0.1 percent over September this year, in line with the increases in February and June but above a negative 0.3 percent in April. For November, this year, The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reveals that as at the Consumer Price contracted by 0.5 percent versus October 2014.
The November fall, represents the lowest inflation rate since the start of the 2014. The division ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ declined by 0.1 per cent, and was mainly due to lower prices for vegetables. A reduction in the cost of electricity and lower rates for water and sewage were the key factors influencing the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’, which declined by 3.6 percent. The latest inflation data brings the year to date level to 6.7 percent and the final number for 2014 should end up closer to 6 percent with the price of oil continuing to fall on the world market and local food products coming back in good quantities.
The fall in the price of oil helped in the negative price movement in November
Bulls want to take over JSE
Wednesday’s activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, resulted in the prices of 14 stocks rising and only 5 declining as 26 securities changed hands, ending in 7,178,648 units trading, valued at $38,478,576, in all market segments. Wednesday is the second day within less than a week, that the prices of more than 13 stocks rose, with only a few falling.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 3 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 1 stock with a lower offer.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index gained 980.87 points to 76,024.35, the JSE All Jamaican Composite index rose 1,096.76 points to close at 83,717.11 and the JSE combined index gained 980.32 points to 77,780.11. The market indices rose higher during trading, than the levels they closed at, but settled back lower at the close.
Gains| Stocks gaining with last traded prices, at the end of trading in the main market are, Cable & Wireless completed trading with 1,302,045 shares with the price rising 1 cent to 46 cents. Supply of the stock has fallen sharply since trading on Tuesday, now with only 12 offers to sell 6.5 million units, between 50 cents and $1 each. Caribbean Cement closed trading with 11,000 units and put on 1 cent to $2.41, Desnoes & Geddes concluded trading with 70,750 shares changing hands, with a gain of 1 cent to $4.66. Grace Kennedy ended with 20,239 units to close with a gain of 51 cents to $60.51, Jamaica Broilers finished trading with 228,433 shares, with the price rising by 1 cent to $4.06. Jamaica Producers contributed 155,000 units and put on $1.04 to $17, National Commercial Bank ended trading with 176,050 shares to end with an increase of 30 cents to $18.50, Scotia Group closed with trading in 977,666 shares, the price ended at 40 cents higher at $20.50 and Scotia Investments finished trading with 4,500 shares with a gain of 41 cents to $21.51.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in the last traded prices are, Ciboney ending with 2,000 shares trading at 7 cents. Jamaica Money Market Brokers closed with 11,000 ordinary shares trading at $7, Kingston Wharves ended with 200 shares at $6 and Sagicor Group ended trading with 65,547 shares changing hands to close at $9.96.
Declines| The last traded prices of stocks with losses at the end of trading in the main market are, Berger Paints closing with 30,350 units as the price slipped 9 cents to $1.51, a new 52 weeks’ low. Carreras finished with 68,034 shares trading lower by 84 cents to $36.16, Mayberry Investments ended with 1,224 shares with a loss of 3 cents to $1.49, Sagicor Real Estate Fund ended trading with 137,095 units and closed at 25 cents to $7 and Supreme Ventures closed with 2,000 units as the price slipped 5 cents to $1.90.
Preference| Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.50% preference share traded 27,800 units to close at $3.50.
Bulls seen at JSE this morning
The Jamaica stock market is showing some bullish indications this morning, with the main indices all gaining over 1,100 points. The junior market index is also up from yesterday’s close. Main Market|
The JSE Market Index gained 1,179.75 points to 76,223.23, the JSE All Jamaican Composite index jumped 1,319.12 points to 83,939.47, the JSE combined index gained 1,208.88 points to close at 78,008.67 and the junior market index was at 678.07 up 10.65 points, at 11.05 o’clock this morning.
The main movers this morning so far are, Jamaica Producers up $1.04 to $17, National Commercial Bank up 30 cents at $18.50 and Scotia Group with a gain of 40 cents to $20.50 with 935,372 shares traded.General Accident Insurance gained 16 cents to $1.75 in the junior market.
US$ demand down $1B PA, supply up
Buying of foreign currency demand fell sharply in the first 5 days of December, this year compared with the same period in 2013, at a level that would translate to over $1 billion per year, if sustained.
At the same time purchases by dealers climbed US$4 million, at a rate around US$300 million per annum. According to data compiled by IC Insider from the daily Bank of Jamaica trading reports, a total of $163 million were purchased this week, this compares favourably with the $159 million purchased by dealers in the 2013 period. While dealers sold US$175 million in the first 5 days of December, last year, this year only US$155 million was sold, a fall of US$20 million, this translates to just over $1 billion per year.
The near evenest of inflows and outflows has not stemmed the slippage in the exchange rate versus the US dollar, after a period of slight revaluation between August and October. Bank of Jamaica stepped in by increasing their take from the market from 15 percent per day to 20 percent from November and even intervened on a number of days our source informed us, thus reversing the appreciation of the Jamaican dollar.
The Jamaican dollar ended 2013 at $106.38 to one US dollar and reached $113.79 on Friday, to one US dollar. The slippage since the start of the year is just 7 percent, and is in line with inflation to October and would result in a slight gain in competitiveness in the currency based on inflation differential between Jamaica and the USA, if inflation were to remain around these levels.
Last year December the rate started at $105.87 and ended at $106.38 with most of the slippage occurring in the first half of the month. Flows of foreign exchange usually pick up in the second half of December and is likely to slow the rate of decline, unless Bank of Jamaica determines that the currency needs to slip some more, but they could wait until 2015 to effect any needed adjustment to the rate, with 2014 almost over. With the price of oil well under US$70 per barrel the demand for foreign currency will fall and should allow BOJ to lower interest rates while building up the reserves in the first half of 2015 at least.
Minimal branch closures at BNSJa
Jacqueline Sharp CEO of Scotia Group
Sharp was addressing the press, in providing an update on the group’s operation for the year to October. The local group closed their Westgate and Barnett street branches, with the opening of the new branch at Fairview, just outside of the old Montego Bay city centre. “The main branch in Sam Sharp’s square remains open. Due to the limited branch closures no provision was made in the 2014 accounts and the staff at the closed branches were absorbed within the group,” Sharp said.
The Canadian parent had announced closure of branches and staff cut of 1,500, to trim cost and better align branches with customer demand. But Sharp stated that the local operation was always looking at ways of making the operation more efficient and will focusing on this aspect going forward.Business as usual locally, comes against the back ground of Scotia Group making profit of $10 billion versus nearly $11 billion in 2013, but more importantly, the banking operations made profit of $3.935 billion vs $3.99 billion in 2013 after absorbing additional asset tax cost of $260 million.
Lower Q4 profit squeezes Scotia Group
Scotia Group Jamaica (Scotia Group) reported profit after tax of $10.1 billion for the year ended October, 2014, a decrease of $774 million or 7 percent compared with the net income of $10.9 billion in 2013.
The results for the fourth quarter of $2.5 billion represents an increase of $129 million or 5 percent over the same period last year, and a decrease of $188 million or 7 percent compared to the previous quarter ended July, 2014.
Earnings per share were $3.14 compared to $3.37 in 2013, and the Return on Average Equity was 13.41 percent, down from 15.67 percent last year. During the October quarter, income from foreign currency trading fell sharply from the July quarter, from $636 million to only $234 million and insurance revenues dropped from $661 million to $495 million, a fall of $166 million or 25 percent. While insurance income was higher than in the 2013 quarter at $476 million, the foreign exchange trading gains was still well below the $677 million generated in the 2013 quarter. Loan loss impairment fell to $227 million in the October 2014 quarter slightly higher than the $191 million in 2013 but much lower than the $497 million in the July 2014 quarter.
Jackie Sharp, President and CEO said, “Scotia Group experienced another year of solid performance across all business lines. We saw 9 percent growth year over year in our Commercial & SME portfolios; 6 percent growth in our retail loan portfolio; 12 percent growth in mortgages; and our Premium Money Market Fund which is offered by our subsidiary, Scotia Investments surpassed the $10 Billion mark. During the last half of the year, we have seen strong growth and we are poised for another successful year in 2015.”
Net interest income after impairment losses for the year was $22.9 billion, an increase of $57 million compared to 2013. Other revenue for this financial year amounted to $10.9 billion, a reduction of $465 million or 4 percent compared to 2013. Net fee and commission income remained stable year over year, despite the growth in loan and transaction volumes. Net gains on foreign currency activities decreased by $767 million, while net gains on financial assets increased by $520 million compared to the prior year.
Operating Expenses for the year amounted to $20.2 billion, an increase of $527 million or 2.7 percent compared 2013. The Group experienced an increase in the asset, premium and minimum business taxes of $861 million as a result of the increased rates implemented earlier in the year.
Loans, after allowance for impairment losses amount to $145.7 billion as at the year-end is only up by just over $1 billion from the $144.6 billion at the end of the July quarter but increased 8 percent from $134.8 billion in October 2013.
Non-performing loans (NPLs) at October 31, 2014 totaled $4.9 billion, reflecting an increase of $411 million from prior year. Total NPLs now represent 3.32 percent of total gross loans compared to 3.29 percent last year and 3.31 percent as at July 31, 2014.Interest rates are falling on the deposit side that shows up in lower interest cost in the October quarter over that of the July quarter.
Looking ahead|Scotia should be able to manage the net interest income to their benefit going forward as Treasury bill rate continue to fall. The lower foreign exchange earnings in the last quarter is tied up in the revaluation of the Jamaican dollar during the quarter and should show improvement in the January 2015 quarter with some moderate slippage in the value of the Jamaican dollar. The slow growth in lending is likely to continue for a while longer and will act as a drag of accelerated income and profit growth. Investors should be looking for a gradual growth in profit rather than a big spurt, at any rate earnings should be climbing towards the $3.50 level in 2015.
The Board of Directors approved a final dividend of 40 cents per stock unit payable on January 13, 2015. The stock closed at $20, at the end of trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Friday.
Negative Inflation for rest of 2014?
Prices increased for October rose by a mere 0.1 percent over September this year, and is in line with the increase in February and June but above a negative 0.3 percent in April. The rate for the rest of the year could be negative based on developments locally and overseas.
The inflation rate, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reveals was mainly due to a 0.2 percent increase in the index for the category of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages and 0.3 per cent increase in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels. This increase in the index for the latter division was mainly as a result of higher water and sewerage charges in October 2014 Statin stated. A 0.8 percent fall of prices in transportation, moderated the effect of the increases, in the other areas. Statin said that the ‘Transport’ division’s index fell as a result of the decline in the cost of airfares, as well as the price of fuel.
Lower airfares helped to keep October inflation low
Business sector don’t get it
Jamaica has to rely on the private sector, to help lift it from the economic quagmire it finds itself in, for the past 3 decades. A look at certain data shed some light on the task the country faces.
It tells of a nation where the business sector leaders seem to be managing more from the seat of their pants than based on properly informed position. Take the case of inflation, which ran at 5.1 percent up to August, for 2014, for an average of just less than 0.68 percent per month, and against the back ground of slippage in the exchange rate in the early months that would have helped spike inflation then. With an almost stable Jamaican dollar in September a survey done by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica on behalf of the Bank of Jamaica to ascertain the expectations of Chief Executive Officers, Managing Directors and Financial Controllers about the future movement of prices in September this year, to which 270 responded, found that their expectation for inflation for 2014, will end at 10.2 percent. On what basis is they arrive at this forecasted amount.
Interestingly, the official inflation rate to October is 7.3 percent, the full year’s figure should hoover around this level with the price of oil on the world market having declined sharply, pulling some local cost down with it.
The business sector record on business confidence both on the current state as well as a year out has no better record as ca be seen from the wild fluctuation in the periodic results.
On the matter of Treasury bill rate, while rates have been declining monthly from a peak in March, this year. The survey respondents expected the rate for the 182 day Treasury bill to come out at 8.6 percent at a time the rate had already declined to 8 percent. Admittedly, the interest rate forecast is not totally inconsistent with the managerial group inflation forecast, as investors would want to be compensated with an interest rates above the inflation as they see it. But if the inflation rate forecasted is as high as the private sector figures there would also be need for a greater slippage in the rate of exchange for the Jamaican dollar versus the US dollar. Yet their perception that the exchange rate would slip by 1.3 percent by the end of 2014 from September, would not be in keeping with the high inflation rate they projected.
