Cement still top stock to watch
Jamaican stocks continue to consolidate as they await some major price moving events to change direction. During the past week, Caribbean Cement make a gallant move to break out but selling pushed the price back to close at $60.61, after posting a high of $73.90. On Friday, it traded at $66 but sellers pushed it back lower by the close.
Buying interest remains good for Carib Cement while selling seems a bit muted. With first quarter results due by the last week in April, investors could be positioning to get ahead of those results, expected to be well ahead of the 2018 profit. The stock could close higher during the week based on demand and supply.
Earlier in last week, NCB Financial looked as if it was going to move back to the $150 range with no offers below $150 for an extended period of trading. That never lasted as sellers entered, keeping the price in the $145 range. Other main market stocks to watch include, Barita Investments, Berger Paints, Jamaica Producers, Radio Jamaica and Wisynco Group that has some selling around the $12 level and my take some more time to move higher.
While there are stocks that are pregnant with possibility to move, the sideways movement of the market, seems set to continue this coming week. The situation will be made worse, with the pending Wigton Windfarm IPO, that should be coming the market this week, and will suck up approximately $6 billion, at around 50 cents per share. The Junior Market is currently, supported by two major technical indicators, indicating a rising market ahead. One is a triple bottom that it is bouncing off and the other a triangle formation, both indicate a big breakout. The last time the market had a triple bottom was between March and July last year and the market gained more than 500 points after.
Junior Market stocks to watch this week and beyond include, Caribbean Cream with full year results due towards the end of April that could help the stock. Caribbean Producers supported by technical indicator suggesting a higher price down the road. General Accident currently at a PE of 15 times 2018 earnings but well below likely 2019 earnings. Investors continue to demand Elite Diagnostic stock at $3.20 or lower with sellers mostly wanting close to $3.50. Honey Bun is showing all the signs of moving higher. Fontana remains fluid at $4 level. Express Catering that will benefit from the double-digit upsurge in Tourist arrivals so far in 2019. Lasco Manufacturing was in the news with expansion of the storage facilities to accommodate increased production, the stock gained last week and could record further gains this coming week, regardless it one worth watch for longer term gains.
3 new additions to IC TOP 10
There are three new additions to the IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks for this week, but there are no new movement in and out of the top main market stocks.
AMG Packaging moved up in price and slipped out of the top list, Caribbean Cream and Medical Disposables that climbed to $7.50 at the end of the week, were edged out.
CAC2000 returns to the TOP 10 as the price fell to $9.21 after months of absence. Pressure on revenues due to disruption in business caused by the roadworks around the area of their offices, could see this one being down in price for a while, until investors see it as just temporary. Everything Fresh makes it to the list in eight position and Jamaican Teas returns with the price hit down to $3 but closed with the bid at $3.50.
The three leading Junior Market stocks for the coming week are Caribbean Producers with projected gains of 240 percent, Elite Diagnostic with potential gains of 228 percent and CAC2000 with potential gains of 226 percent.
Victoria Mutual investments is now the top Main Market stock with 156 percent likely gain, followed by Radio Jamaica with 152 percent and Sterling Investments with potential to gain 151 percent.
The main market, closed the week with the overall PE at 13.6 and the Junior Market at just 10.3. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 6.6 and the main market PE is now 8.5. These levels, point to the huge upside for the TOP 10 stocks over the next 12 months.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 36 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 38 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Projected earnings, for each company’s current fiscal year, are used in determining, the selected stocks. The PE for and projected earnings for each stock are computed to show potential gains for the year, which are ranked in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.
This report is compiled by persons who may have interest in the securities commented on.
How the east was won?
Anne Marie Vaz increased her party’s support by a stunning 58 percent, over the JLP’s haul in the 2016 General Election to win the East Portland by-election on Thursday with just 11 votes less than 10,000.
At the same time, Damion Crawford only pulled out 5 percent more votes than was polled for the PNP, in 2016. The story gets increasing bad for the PNP and it is not just in this election. The writing was on the wall for years but poor candidature, by the JLP lent the view to many onlookers, that East Portland was safe PNP territory. The 2007, results with the PNP winning by less than 800 votes, should have sent a clear warning to them that things were changing rapidly.
In this latest election, the number of new voters on the list, grew by 5.6 percent, but Crawford’s increase of 4.8 percent was less than the rise in registered voters. Looked at differently, he picked up just 354 votes more than in the 2011 elections or only 3.8 percent more. On a net basis, he garnered only approximately 25 percent of new voters, while Vaz got 75 percent. This is consistent with a pattern seen island wide since 1993 and is one that is not likely to change, anytime soon.
The Labour party was able to get out their 8,000 voters of 2011 and add 24 percent more voters to it, in addition to commandeering the vast majority of new voters, the vote tally at the end of the preliminary count suggests.
The results on the surface is a major about turn for the seat. Closer examination of the numbers for a longer period tells a clear tale. The huge 2019 increase is due to a below performance for the JLP in the 2016 elections, when the votes by the party sank by a hefty 22 percent and well against the national trend. The trend since the 1993 elections, suggests that the natural growth in party support should have seen them polling over 9,700 votes, just below the numbers she got in the latest polls.
The data also points out that the trend is indicating that the JLP should have polled around 2,000 more votes than they did, this time around. Those voters are there in their corner based on the growth in support, reflected in the average gains in votes cast in prior elections. This bit of information is also reflected in public opinion voting survey data.
Stocks falter on TTSE – Friday
Trading on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange ended with just one stock rising, 7 declining and 8 remaining unchanged as the volume and value of trades climbed over that on Thursday.
Trading ended with 16 securities changing hands, against 15 on Thursday with investors exchanging 582,066 shares for $13,484,840, compared to 244,479 shares for $4,262,247 on Thursday.
The Composite Index lost 2.99 points to end at 1,330.72. The All T&T Index declined 4.54 points to 1,771.10, while the Cross Listed Index fell 0.19 points to close at 120.11.
IC bid-offer Indicator|The Investor’s Choice bid-offer ended at 6 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 3 with lower offers.
At the close of the market, Republic Financial Holdings rose 21 cents to $120, after exchanging 52,811 shares.
Stocks closing with losses| First Citizens fell 50 cents to settle at $36, after exchanging 6,687 shares, Massy Holdings closed with a loss of 10 cents and closed at $53.30, after exchanging 1,821 shares, NCB Financial Group shed 1 cent and settled at $8.24, with the trading of 200 shares. Sagicor Financial lost 15 cents in exchanging 55,520 shares to close at $8.65, Scotiabank ended trading at 51 cents lower at $63, with 1,452 stock units changing hands, Trinidad & Tobago NGL concluded trading with a loss of 77 cents at $29.50, with 130,367 units trading and Trinidad Cement fell 5 cents and settled at $2.60, after exchanging 13,319 shares.
Stocks closing firm| Angostura Holdings ended at $16, with 5 stock units changing hands, Clico Investments ended at $23, trading 75,283 stock units, Grace Kennedy ended at $3.30, with an exchange of 39,345 stock units, JMMB Group closed at $1.76, after exchanging 202,426 shares. One Caribbean Media concluded trading of 1,100 shares at $10.10, Point Lisas closed at $3.45, with 247 stock units changing hands, Unilever Caribbean ended at $26.30, after trading 1,311 shares and West Indian Tobacco ended at $98.75, with 172 stock units changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.
IC Insider spot on for Portland by-election
In an article published March 10, IC insider.com had this to say about polls, “observation of public polls for individual constituencies published in the past, show them to be unreliable, although they may well point in the right direction in some cases.”
The articles concluded, “historical trend suggests the likelihood of a close result, for the East Portland seat, but whichever party can mobilize voters to get the out turn back to the traditional level of 60 percent, will win.”
The results are now in, ending with a 51 to 49 percent split of the votes, with around 55 percent turnout.
The article stated that in the 2016 general election, the East Portland seat, had just 44 percent of registered voters casting votes, ranking it as one of the lowest rural area voter turnout. The low out turn suggests a high level of dissatisfaction with the parties’ representatives. The PNP picked up 57 percent of the votes to the JLP’s 42 percent in that election, a wider gap than in 2011 that moved contrary to the swing in overall general elections. The article was commenting on the results of two sets of polls that were carried in the Jamaica Observer, showing incredible substantial leads for both parties.
The results of the elections show the pollsters to be off the mark, but the results of the election, confirms that there is a continuing swing for the governing JLP, well over the level that saw them winning the 2016 elections.
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TTSE up 4% in 2019 and moving higher
Three securities closed at 52 weeks’ high as the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange quietly continue to move higher with the All T&T Index rising more than 4 percent for the year to date.
Trading ended with 15 securities changing hands, against 10 on Wednesday with investors exchanging 244,479 shares for $4,262,247, compared to 80,535 shares for $942,914 on Wednesday.
At close of the market, 7 stocks advanced 2 declined and 6 remained unchanged, while Clico Investments and First Citizens closed at a 52 weeks’ highs and helped to lead the Composite Index to a gain of 5.30 points to 1,333.71. The All T&T Index jumped 10.87 points to end at 1,775.64, while the Cross Listed Index declined 0.06 points to close at 120.30
IC bid-offer Indicator|The Investor’s Choice bid-offer ended at 5 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 2 with a lower offer.
At the close of the market, stocks ending trading with gains| Angostura Holdings gained 20 cents to end at $16, with 306 stock units changing hands, Clico Investments finished 30 cents higher at $23, trading 108,409 stock units, First Citizens climbed 45 cents and settled at a 52 weeks’ high of $36.50, after exchanging 404 shares. Republic Financial Holdings added 29 cents and settled at $119.79, after trading just 20 shares, Scotiabank increased 50 cents and ended at $63.51, with a mere 35 stock units changing hands, Trinidad Cement rose 5 cents to $2.65, after exchanging 1,000 shares and Unilever Caribbean closed with a gain of 30 cents at $26.30, after swapping 10,482 shares.
Stocks closing losses| JMMB Group fell 2 cents at $1.76, after exchanging 41,500 shares and Trinidad & Tobago NGL closed with a loss of 23 cents and completed trading 33,763 units at $30.27.
Stocks closing firm| CinemaOne ended at $9.95, with 376 stock units changing hands, First Caribbean International Bank completed trading with 30,404 units at $8.25, National Flour exchanged 2,601 shares at $1.65. NCB Financial Group settled at $8.25, after exchanging 5,290 shares, Sagicor Financial closed at $8.80, after trading 10,250 shares and West Indian Tobacco ended at $98.75, with 15 stock units changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.