Devaluation of the local currency since the start of 2013 that should be helping move exports upwards had no visible impact on overall exports of goods in the first quarter of this year compared with 2013, it however, could be impacting imports somewhat as imports have fallen partially as a result. Jamaica imported US$1.412 billion </a>of goods down from US$1.647 billion imported in the January to March quarter last year, representing a reduction of US$235 million or 14.3 percent.
Exports on the other hand came in at US$358 million, down from US$469 million in the 2013 quarter. The decrease in exports was US$111 million or 23.6 percent and is due mainly to a fall in Alumina exports which fell from US$236 million in the comparable 2013 period to US$105 million this year. The merchandise trade deficit for the quarter ended at US$1.054 billion compared to US$1.178 billion in the similar quarter of 2013. The information was released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica today.
Imports| Non-fuel imports during March 2014 quarter declined by US$176 million or 16 percent versus 2013 ending at US$907 million, down from US1.08 billion in the 2013 period. Mineral Fuels, declined by US$59 million or 10.5 percent. Imports of Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods decreased from US$1.11 billion in the 2013 review period to US$863 million in the 2014 review period.
Traditional exports fell by US$37 million to US$168 million in the 2014, down from US$205 million in the 2013 period, a decrease of or 18 percent of this Agricultural commodities fell by US$2.5 million or 35.0 percent and were valued at US$4.6 million. The decline in earnings from “Coffee” exports which fell to US$3 million was the main contributor to this decrease.
Mining and Quarrying was valued at US$135 million, a decrease of 20.1 percent, moving from US$169 million in the 2013 review period.. “Manufacture” recorded a 2 percent decline and was valued at US$28 million compared to the US$28.5 million recorded for the similar January to march 2013 period. Non-traditional domestic exports during January to March 2014 were valued at US$177 million.
Archives for June 2014
Imports drop, exports drop
J$112.20 to buy the US dollar
The Jamaican dollar selling rate increased to purchase all three major currencies the country trades in. At the end of trading it took on Monday $112.20 or 6 cents more than on Friday to buy a United States dollar even as $36.2 million were bought by dealers and only $32.7 million was sold. It took 81 cents more to buy the Canadian dollar with the selling rate closing at $105.73 and the British Pound went for $191.90 or 72 cents more than on Friday.
Overall, the total inflows of funds was slightly higher than the outflows, with the equivalent of US$43,468,700 purchased, to US$39,107,616 sold compared to the equivalent of US$32,458,785 bought and $31,869,468 sold on the previous trading day.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$36,202,132 compared to US$24,215,389 on Friday as the buying rate for the US dollar eased by 2 cents to $111.52 and sold US$32,694,268 versus US$26,206,729 on Friday with the rate closing up 6 cents at $112.20.
The Canadian dollar buying rate fell 54 cents to $103.80 with dealers buying C$2,680,244 and selling C$2,963,469 as the rate rose by 81 cents to end at $105.73.
The Pound closed at $189.20 for the purchase of £2,231,358, the rate rose 10 cents, while £1,183,752 was sold, the rate climbed by 72 cents to $191.90. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$986,303 while selling accounted for the equivalent of just US$1,596,326.
Highs & Lows| The highest rate for buying the US dollar rose 15 cents to $112.70, the lowest buying rate of $91.02 and the highest selling rate of $116.63 were unchanged at the end of trading but the lowest selling rate fell $18.19 to of $90.81.
The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar rose 10 cents to $105.55, in the meantime the lowest buying rate rose 20 cents at $82.83, the highest selling rate rose by 14 cents to $107 and lowest selling rate climbed 80 cents to $99.80.
The highest buying rate for the British Pound increased $1.20 to $192.50 while the lowest buying rate inched up 21 cents to $152.14. The highest selling rate rose 27 cents to $196.13 and the lowest selling rate was up 5 cents to $183.30.
Market closes June on the up
In Monday’s trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, the prices of 10 stocks rose and only 4 declined as 23 securities changed hands, resulting in 3,003,461 units trading valued at $22,598,484.
Main Market| The JSE Market Index rose 641.81 points to end at 70,738.58, last year June, the index stood at 86,853.91points and the JSE All Jamaican Composite index moved up by 717.65 points to close at 77,806.78 this compares with 88,043.02 points on the end of June last year. The junior market index was also much higher at the end of last year June than this year.
Gains| Stocks recording gains at the end of trading in the main market are Caribbean Cement with 1,650 shares to close up 20 cents at $2.50, followed by Carreras with 2,815 units to add 50 cents in closing at $34, Grace Kennedy with 1,600 shares to gain 99 cents to close at $55, Jamaica Money Market Brokers with 2,848 shares gained 10 cents to end at $6.80, Jamaica Producers with 2,732 units jumped $1.38 to hit $17, but it closed with a bid of $18.24 for 48012 shares, Mayberry Investments with 3,988 shares gained a cent and ended at $1.46, Pan Jamaican Investment traded 800 shares and was up 44 cents to end at $48.50, Scotia Investments with only 2,776 shares was up 45 cents to $22.10 and Supreme Ventures put in a volume of 232,603 units at 2 cents higher to close at $2.
Firm| The stocks in the main market to close without a change in price are Jamaica Broilers with 78,178 units to close at $4.60, Sagicor Group with 1,994,932 shares, 1.976 million units of which were crosses by Pan Caribbean Securities with the price closing at $9 and Scotia Group with 34,540 units to close at $19.
Preference share| Jamaica Money Market Brokers 7.50% preference share traded 186,416 units to close at $2 and Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8.75% preference share lost a cent in closing at $3.02 with 164,004 units changing hands.
Declines| The number of stocks that declined in the main market are Kingston Wharves with 31,596 shares to close down 2 cents at $5, National Commercial Bank saw 5,509 units changing hands with the price slipping a cent to $18 and Sagicor Real Estate Fund lost 10 cents to close at $6 while trading 60,191 shares.
Junior Market| The JSE Junior Market Index declined by 0.70 points to close at 721.00 points compared with 801.30 points at the end of June 2013. Only 6 stocks traded with one advancing with no stock declining.
Gains| Medical Disposables with 43,000 units to close 10 cents higher at $2.05 was the only stock recording gains at the end of trading in the junior market.
Firm Trades| The stocks in the junior market that traded to close at the same price as the day before are Access Financial with 67,400 units to close at $13.50, Caribbean Producers with 8,891 shares traded at $2.70, Dolphin Cove with 256 shares to close at $8.50, Lasco Distributors 69,236 traded to close at $1.30
And Lasco Financial closed with 7,500 shares changing hands at $1.
Declines| There were no stock declining in the junior market at the end of trading.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 6 stocks with the bid higher than the last selling price and 4 stocks with offers that were lower.
7 to nil on TTSE
Trading on the Trinidad Stock Exchange saw15 securities changing hands of which 7 advanced, none declined and 8 traded firm with 352,238 stocks changing hands with a value of $2,984,048 on Monday.
The Composite Index rose 0.53 points to close at 1,166.59, the All T&T Index inched up by just 1.08 points to close at 2,012.91 and the Cross Listed Index remained unchanged at 41.93.
Gains| Stocks increasing in price at the close are Angostura Holdings contributing 20,216 shares with a value of $262,799 to close up by 25 cents at $13, Clico Investment Fund with 26,852 shares trading, valued at $577,322 to close with a cent gain, at $21.51 One Caribbean Media traded 3,000 shares and gained 2 cents to end at $23.02, for a new 52 weeks high, Praetorian Property Mutual Fund advanced by 15 cents to end at $3.55, Prestige Holdings traded 850 shares to close with a gain of a cent at $9.41, a new 52 weeks high Trinidad Cement with a volume of 113,139 shares traded for $221,113, closed up with 4 cents at $1.99 and Unilever closed at $62.25 with a gain of a cent, in trading 2,500 shares.
Declines| No stock declined at the end of trading on Monday.
Firm Trades| Stocks closing with prices unchanged at the end of trading are, Firstcaribbean International Bank with 143,779 shares changing hands for a value of $718,895 and closed at $5 followed by First Citizens Bank with 15,705 shares valued at $549,559, to end the day at $35, Guardian Holdings with 8,153 units to close at $14.30, Jamaica Money Market Brokers 8,000 shares changed hands to close at 45 cents, National Flour Mills with 3,1000 shares at $1, National Enterprises with 728 units, as the price ended at $18.76, Point Lisas Industrial Port Development with 3,600 shares at $4.15 and Republic Bank with 2,218 to close at $121.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator had 1 stock with the bid higher than the last selling price and 3 stocks with offers that were lower.
Columbia, Netherlands or France world cup winner?
The IC Insiders forecast for the quarter finals winners is spot on so far. With only two matches to go the IC Insider’s forecast have been panned out exactly as set out in our report prepared after the preliminary rounds were completed. The closeness of the quarter finals suggest that matches in the semis should be very close once more. Data suggest that the three top teams likely to land the cup are Columbia, Netherlands and France. All three appears to be very close but with Columbia having a very small edge. Brazil is a some what off from the three leading teams.
Ranking| IC Insider ranked the teams in the quarter finals and make its forecast based on the preliminary round performance of the teams. The report that was posted indicated that Brazil the number 4 ranked team should have the better of the number 10 team, Chile with the latter scoring 5 goals and conceding 3 versus Brazil with an 8 to 2 superior record. Holland with 10 goals for and 3 against should have the better of Mexico with a 4 for 1 record, but this is not expected to be a walk over as the Mexicans demonstrated in the preliminary rounds that they don’t intend to quit easily. Columbia’s 9 goals for and 2 against should, on paper place them ahead of Uruguay the number 13 ranked team with 4 and 4 but the latter performance in their last two matches suggests that it could go either way. Costa Rica looks as if they will progress to the next round over Greece who only won one match and have a negative goal difference with only two goals being scored by them. Costa Rica 4 goals and one against was achieved in one of the toughest groups. 
France the IC insider’s number 3 team should be too good for the number 15 team, Nigeria, the same is true for Germany IC Insider ranked number 5 team who should do away with Algeria the number 12 team. Argentina the number 6 team should blow away the Swiss team who are ranked at 11 with 7 goals for and 6 against compared to 6 to 3 for Argentina. Belgium on paper should have the better of the USA having had a superior goal difference and what a appears a more solid defense but the USA team seems to have a better goal hungry approach, if the latter can do better in defense than their last two encounters they look as if they are in with a good chance of winning.
More money for Carreras’ shareholders
More money is heading the way of the Shareholders of Carreras as the company gets ready to make another capital distribution. Carreras on Friday last, informed the Jamaica Stock Exchange that the directors of will consider an interim special capital cash distribution at a meeting to be held on July 3, 2014.
A special capital cash distribution of $1.18 was last paid on January 30, this year.
The company also recently paid an interim dividend of $1.75 per stock unit on June 26, $1.62 per share. On March 13 they paid a dollar per share as well as in August and November last year.
First Citizens PE more attractive
First Citizens made the sharpest price movement during the week as it dropped back sharply, ending back at $35 compared with $37.43 at the end of the previous week. The fall has raised the attractiveness of the stock giving it a 70 percent potential gain. 
Elsewhere not mush change took place more, but a number of stocks continue to post higher highs during the week as they eke away at the potential gains they have been showing. The Trinidad market has several stocks that are priced at a PE that is well below the market average, this has been so from early 2013 and continues to present.
The market has 6 stocks that are priced at a PEs that are well below the market’s average of 15, and a few close to the average, thus offering profitable investment opportunities for investors with medium term investment horizon.
The price earnings ratio| The PE ratio is the most popular measure investors use to compare and determine stocks values. It is computed by dividing the price of a stock by the earnings per share. It allows investors to compare the value of one company with others in order to decide which ones are to be bought sold or held on to. When the market moves markedly away from the norm it is usually time for investors to move. Nowhere is this truer than PE ratios.
In looking at good buying opportunities the crude measure is to buy those stocks with low PEs compared to the market or to stocks in the same sector.
Mayberry ups holdings in Access
Mayberry Investments one of the Major shareholders in Access Financial Services purchased a total of 145,600 shares in the company during the period June 10-24, 2014. Access Financial Services advised the Jamaica Stock Exchange that a related party to purchase the shares. A check on the trades indicates that they were all bought by Mayberry for in house purposes. Mayberry bought another 67,400 units from two of its clients, on Monday June 30 at $13.50. The purchase of the shares comes against the background of legal action being pursued by the two a major shareholders of the company which was brought by Marcus James the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) against the directors connected with Mayberry to restrain them from removing him as CEO.
Sagicor Group| An executive purchased 257,780 shares of Sagicor Group under the company’s Executive Long Term Incentive Scheme on June 23, 2014. Both companies recently reported the trades to the stock exchange.
Why NCB deserves a look now
National Commercial Bank (NCB)shares may not be trading in droves recently with the price tending to trade around $17 since early May but investors may be missing a great buying opportunity with a stock that is seriously undervalued.
In Trinidad the stock closed as low as TT$1.04 recently but has moved up to $1.10 on Friday and seems poised to go higher. The bid in Trinidad on Friday close was $1.10 (J$19.20) to buy 22,933 units with an offer of 26,000 units at $1.14. On Wednesday the stock traded 69,456 units at $1.08 and gained 2 cents in the process. On Friday 21,322 traded in Jamaica at $18.01 each and 1,396,013 on Thursday between $17 and $18.03. Wednesday saw 21,595 units being traded between $17.30 and $19. One important factor is that the stock is not in great supply.
But it’s the order book on the Jamaica Stock exchange that is sending a strong message to buy coupled with is a year when the results should help stimulate the stock price higher. There are only 280,000 shares on offer in the market but the buying interest is not particularly strong. With the pickup in trading in Trinidad, the price in Jamaica could get a lift and with third quarter results to June which are due in the last week in July, that could strengthen investor’s appetite for the stock and give it a badly need push.
IC Insider forecast earnings of $5 per share for the current year, so far NCB reported earnings of $2.38. For the first 6 months of the fiscal year.
