TTSE: Trading up not prices

Tuesday, 5th November 2013 | Trading, which has been very poor for the last two trading days on the Trinidad Stock Exchange, picked up a bit to swap 169,000 shares with a value of $5,398,127, resulting in trading of 13 securities of which none advanced, 4 declined and 9 traded firm.

ANSA McAL traded 1,930 units and suffered a 3 cents loss to close at $66.25; First Citizens Bank price dropped by 19 cents to end the day back at $35.56 as it traded 2,833 shares; National Commercial Bank had 23,100 shares changing hands for a value of $26,334 as the price closed up 2 cents to reach $1.14; Guardian Holdings contributed 4,630 shares valued at $69,450 and closed at firm at $15; Guardian Media contributed 10,894 shares with a value of $212,433; Neal & Massy Holdings traded 60,000 shares for a value of $3,459,102 while Scotiabank added 1,300 shares valued at $92,989 as the price moved up by 2 cents to $71.53, a new 52 weeks high.

TTSENov5Clico Investment Fund had a volume of 58,201 shares valued at $1,256,274 as the price fell 1 cent to close at $21.59.

IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading there were bids for 5 stocks that were higher than their last selling prices and 3 stocks on offer lower than the last selling price.

Big drop in trade deficit

Jamaica enjoyed a big drop in its trade deficit in the first 7 months of the year as the deficit declined to US$2.64 billion compared to US$2.85 million in the same period for 2012 according to the latest data put out by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).

According to the Government’s agency for the collection of economic and other data, merchandise imports during January to July 2013 was valued at US$3.62 billion, a decrease of US$213 million when compared to the US$3.83 billion recorded in the similar period last year due mainly to a fall in the value of fuel imported. Earnings from total exports during review period was similar to the 2012 period both at US$978 million.

CoffeeTrade280x150Statin sated in their release that the decline in imports was largely attributed to the decrease expenditure on “Mineral Fuels, etcetera”. Other areas showing decreases were “Machinery & Transport Equipment”, “Manufactured Goods” and “Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles”. “Mineral Fuels, etcetera” valued at US$1.28 billion, fell by US$241 million or 15.8 percent compared with the 2012 period. “Machinery & Transport Equipment” fell by US$5.3 million or 1.0 percent to US517.5 million and “Manufactured Goods” was valued at US$338 million, a decrease of US$35.3 million.

Traditional Exports | Earnings from major traditional domestic exports during the 2013 review period decreased by US$21 million to US$488 million due to the significant decline in ‘Manufacture’. Goods classified under the “Manufacture” group accounted for US$86 million, down from US$129.5 million in 2012 mainly due to the decrease in the export of ‘Sugar’ and’ Rum’. “Agriculture” group recorded an increase, earning US$17 million, as the major commodity in this group “Coffee” earned US$13.3 million compared to US$10.4 million in 2012. “Mining and Quarrying” earned US$385 million in the 2013 period.

Non-Traditional Exports | Earnings for this segment to July 2013 rose by 3 percent or US$12.8 million to US$442.4 million.  “Other” non-traditional domestic exports rose by 8.1 percent to earn US$318 million.  Of this amount,  “Chemicals (incl. Ethanol)” earned US$99 million, an increase of US$47 million.

Caricom_logo150X150CARICOM | Imports from CARICOM during the first seven months was worth US$484 million but it decreased by 18.3 percent or US$108.5 million when compared to the same period in 2012. The decrease in the import bill was due mainly to lower imports of “Mineral Fuels, etcetera” as spending fell by US$120 million to US$314 million. “Manufactured Goods” recorded a value of US$13 million, down from US$15 million in 2012. Other decreases were seen in “Chemicals” and “Machinery & Transport Equipment” valued at US$15.7 million and US$6.0 million respectively. Three of the five commodity groups recording increases were “Food” valued at US$100.2 million, “Beverages & Tobacco” ( US$24.9 million) and “Misc. Manufactured Articles” ( US$8.4 million).

Total exports to Caricom declined by 3.6 percent during the review period. Domestic Exports accounted for US$33 million, and Re-exports US$6 million. The fall in domestic exports was due mainly to lower exports of “Chemicals”, which decreased by US$3.6 million or 51.0 percent to US$3.5 million and “Misc. Manufactured Articles”, which fell by 12.9 percent to US$2.2 million. However, “Food” the major export earner, increased and was valued at US$19 million, up from the US$17.5 million. Jamaica recorded a trade deficit of US$445 million with her CARICOM partners, down from US$552 million in the 2012.

Related posts | Non-Traditional exports up

Profit inches up at D&G

Desnoes & Geddes, the brewers of Red Stripe beer is reporting moderate growth in after tax profits, moving by 8 percent to $368 million from $340 million in 2012. Sales barely grew from $3.1 billion to $3.28 billion in a quarter when local sales were up 14 percent to $2.8 billion and exports were down from $643 million to $465 million with the shift of the production of beer to USA.

The company spent less on marketing, $266 million versus $313 million in the 2012 quarter while general selling and administrative expenses declined to $288 million from $310 million due most likely to the transfer of this side of the operations to Celebrated Brands, their joint venture distribution arm. The transfer may also have impacted the dollar value of sales. Other income turned a loss of $8 million compared to a surplus of $59 million in 2012. On the other hand D&G’s share in the joint venture distribution was a positive $19 million.

Segment results | In spite of the climb in local sales and a decrease in marketing spend, segments results show profit for the local operation was flat at $553 million while exports rose from $210 million to $283 million.

D&GRed-StripeSilos280x150Financial Position | At the end of the quarter, the company has cash of $1.38 billion but receivables jumped to $1.9 billion from $739 million in 2012; things in this area would look a lot better. The company’s reduced funds tied up in inventories from $1.36 billion to just over a billion at the end of September. D&G has no interest bearing debt with equity capital of $8 billion.

D&G dominates the beer market in Jamaica and a lot of sales have been lost over the last several years as governments placed increased taxation on the products it sells. This along with a sluggish economy has held back its growth in profits and by extension the stock price. In the short turn, the company has had to resort to various cost reduction measures to help improve the bottom line. The September quarterly figures suggest that the company needs a Jamaican economy recovery in order to start delivering decent growth in profits. Nevertheless, the rate of return on equity is around 20 percent, which is not that shabby.

Related posts | D&G poor 4th quarter | Major management changes at D&G | Profits on the improve for D&G

Govt set to wipe out deficit

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The budget presented by the Government of Jamaica to the nation in April did not paint a full picture of what was on the cards. That is, the full wiping out of the fiscal deficit in one year and laying the foundation for a reduction in the heavy debt to GDP load the country has borne for decades. The government is well on target to do this based on the performance to September with a deficit of only $6.6 billion and the heavy inflow of taxes between January and March 2014.

After faltering in August partially due to the last day’s collections not counted in the August fiscal numbers, revenues in September shot past the forecast to land the overall year to date collections right on target but for a half a billion dollar shortfall, which was more than made up for by a near $11 billion savings on the expenditure side. The fiscal deficit is well ahead of forecast at just $6.6 billion versus a target at this stage of $17 billion.

Jamaica_coat_of_arms_280X150Although revenues as a whole are on track, there are areas of concern where intake is less than planned by a fair degree. Capital and non-tax revenues are up by $5 billion year to date which helped to offset fall off in other areas. Also of note, travel tax, which is up by 69 percent due what the Ministry says is past due amounts that being collected, but this is not sustainable at the same pace going forward once the arrears are cleared.

Negative inflows | International trade is down year to date by $2.6 billion; this would have been far worse but for the positive collections for travel tax. Production and consumption taxes have not performed badly although down by $388 million from a forecast of $58.5 billion as education tax is down versus budget by 8 percent to $8.6 billion. Betting and gaming tax is down 38 percent at $1.13 billion. In the area of income taxes, PAYE is down by 6 percent or $2 billion to $30.4 billion, corporate taxes are up by $800 million as tax on dividends fell by $765 million or 57 percent against forecast. As government paid out less interest on the debt, the collection for tax on interest income fell.

Less debt | Government borrowed nearly $10 billion less than budgeted and cut the interest paid for servicing the monstrous debt by $5.6 billion. Payments for other housekeeping expenses other than wages declined by $2.6 billion, in addition $1.7 billion was spent on capital items during the six months period.

Related posts | August curse hits Taxes | July surplus as Govt income jumps

FX: Rates mostly down

Monday, 4th November 2013 | In Monday’s trading in the forex market the prices for the main currencies fell at the end of the day except for the selling rate of the US dollar which rose by 8 cents.

Dealers bought the equivalent of US$38,865,150 and sold US$37,680,070 with $34,232,617 of the amount purchased being US dollar denominated. The rate fell by 20 cents to $104.44 at the end of trading and they sold US$35,353,266 at $105.22 for the an increase of 8 cents.

The amount of Canadian dollars bought amounted to C$1,722,688 at $98.75 down 90 cents, selling amounted to $831,706 at $100.95, down a cent. Dealers bought £1,801,287 at $165.98 down 15 cents and they sold £856,587 at $168.796 down 34 cents.

FX_TRADE+Currency+Nov4High & Lows | The highest selling rate for the US dollar was $106.50 up 50 cents for the day and the lowest rate was $85.38, up 4 cents while selling was as high as $109.41, with no change for the day and as low as $85.17, down by $16.83.

The highest selling rate for the Canadian dollar was down 20 cents to $101.70 and the lowest rate was $80.14, up 13 cents while selling was as high as $103.52 up 21 cents and as low as $96.75, up 20 cents.

FX_TRADE+HighLow+Nov4The highest selling rate for the British Pound was $169.50 down $1 and the lowest rate was $143.38, down 62 cents, while selling was as high as $173.23 up $1.64 and as low as $161.90 down 75 cents.

JSE: Market moved up

Monday, 4th November 2013 | The Jamaica Stock Market continued where it left off on Friday with advancing stocks out pacing decliners with 8 stocks advancing to the decline of 5 and the indices with activity all climbing. The JSE Index closed at 82,868 up 677.70, the all Jamaica Index closed at 81,499.65 up 1,192.40 and the junior market index closed up 3.56 to end at 729.86. In overall market activity 7.59 million shares changed hands for a value of $64.55 million.

Stocks with meaningful activity are Cable & Wireless which traded 580,452 units to close at 15 cents; Caribbean Cement 15,075 units as the price closed at $2.10 down 9 cents; Carreras 303,000 units traded firm to close at $40; Desnoes & Geddes exchanged 1,261,066 units to close up 25 cents at $4.75 but the offer at the end of trading was $4.50; Jamaica Money Market Brokers had 3,039,900 units as the price closed up at $8.30; Mayberry Investments 65,242 units at $1.90; National Commercial Bank Jamaica 21,930 units closing firm at $18.49; Sagicor Investments exchanged 96,871 units and closed at $16; Scotia Group 727,916 shares closing up $1.99 at $21.99; Supreme Ventures 140,000 units to close at $2.60 and Proven Investments 8% was the only stock to trade in the preference segment as it resulted in 185,431 units changing ownership at $5.09.

Junior market |Trading picked up in the junior market with Consolidated Bakeries traded 53,000 to close at $1.16; General Accident Insurance traded 11,500 units being exchanged ending at $1.70, up 5 cents; KLE Group traded 44,000 units and hit another new all-time low of $1.30, down 7 cents while Lasco Financial Services chipped in with 99,999 traded units to close firm at $1; Lasco Distributors exchanged 106,640 units at $1.45 and Lasco Manufacturing garnered 847,654 units to close at $1.38 down 7 cents.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading there were bids for 3 stocks that were higher than their last selling prices and 5 stocks on offer lower than the last selling price. This trading day shows an emerging bullish market indicator with positive out numbering negatives by a wide margin.

TTSE: Trading sinks but Citizens rise

Monday, 4th November 2013 | Trading was very low on Friday last on the Trinidad Stock Exchange but it sank even lower on the first trading day of the week to a mere 39,609 shares, with a value of $649,052. Trading represented 12 securities of which 4 advanced, 3 declined and 5 traded firm.

First Citizens Bank price rose by 55 cents to end the day at $35.75 as it traded 11,213 shares valued $398,747; National Commercial Bank had 20,000 shares changing hands for a value of $22,800 as the price closed up 2 cents to reach $1.14; Guardian Holdings contributed 3,324 shares with a value of $49,860 and closed at $15, down 15 cents; while Scotiabank added 1,300 shares valued at $92,989 as the price moved up by 2 cents to $71.53, a new 52 weeks high.

TTSENov4Clico Investment Fund had a volume of 2,278 shares valued at $49,205 as the price fell 4 cents to close at $21.60.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading there were bids for 3 stocks that were higher and 5 stocks on offer lower than the last selling price.

JPSCO list new preference shares

The Jamaica Public Service listed its new offering of 2,455,607 units of Class F 9.5% Cumulative Non-Redeemable Preference Shares on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. The shares were offered through a private placement. The shares will be traded under the symbol JPS9.5. The security has a market capitalization of $2.579 billion or 33.0% of the overall market capital of the preference shares listed.

Street Forrest, General Manager of the JSE told the audience that, “The JSE welcomes these new securities as we believe if we are to encourage investors to invest in the development of our country, we have to provide them with not only a transparent and efficient marketplace through which to invest but the products in which to invest. Ownership by Jamaicans in Jamaican companies, whether through ordinary shares or preference shares, is a critical path in improving the infrastructure leading to sustainable development. This is what the Stock Exchange seeks to foster through the different markets that we operate. We are committed to the development of the capital market but we cannot do it alone.  The government and the private sector must see the need for the development and especially the formation of capital through equity financing”.

JPSMeter200x200Street Forrest went on to say “I wish to congratulate JPS again for listing. The very nature of these Class F shares, being non-redeemable has some characteristics of ordinary shares”.

Kelly Tomblin, CEO of JPS, stated that “JPS has been a part of the national landscape for more than 90 years, and a long standing partner in over 95% of households and businesses across Jamaica. We believe that it is appropriate for Jamaicans to have more personal stake in the company that plays such an important role in national development”.  She also promised that there will be other securities listed on the Exchange in the future by JPS.

AMG gearing for further growth

AMG Packaging is out with flat results for the year to August with profits of $49 million up about 4 percent from 2012, even as revenues from goods sold climbed 24 percent to $444 million as a result of a 16 percent increase in the volume of items sold.

The company reported improvement in gross profit which increased by 32 percent compared to the 2012 figure of 31 percent as it grew faster than sales. Increased administrative cost ate up just about all of the improvement in increased efficiency in the factory operations. This was due mainly to what management attributed to a revision to wage package, as there was no increase since 2009. Gross profit margin increased to 33 percent in the year from 31 percent in 2012 and 26 percent in 2011. In 2010 the margin was at 32 percent.

August quarter | Data indicates a 37 percent jump in revenues to $128 million but that was not enough to prevent a fall in profits in the quarter to $14 million versus $16 million in the 2012 quarter as just about all major areas of cost rose sharply. Raw material cost is up 49 percent, direct manufacturing cost grew by 42 percent, administration grew 36 percent, finance cost rose 197 percent and depreciation by 71 percent.

amg-packaging_logo150x150Negatively, return on equity fell in the year to 18.6 percent versus 22 percent in 2012 and 24.5 percent in 2011, clearly an area where work is needed. The company is working to improve efficiency and expansion of production by investing in new machines. During the year the company expended money on roof relays and some other items that have an one-off effect and not likely to be repeated in the coming year and should free the profit going forward. They are also moving to use LPG instead of placing total reliance on the electric grid, which they say will reduce energy cost in the coming year.

Management, in their report to investors, indicated that a multi-functional machine on order will replace older manual ones and a rotary die cut machine is being manufactured. Both are expected to be functional in the November quarter of 2013. These machines are expected to increase production and enhance the quality of products.

Finances | Current assets of $209 million including cash of $34 million is more than adequate to cover current liabilities of $71 million. Inventories climbed sharply to $93 million from $75 million in 2012 but it represents just under one and a half months of raw material cost.

Money borrowed rose to $85 million, an increase on the $29 million at the end of the prior year, with most of the increase used to fund expansion of the factory and added machinery. The debt compares favourably with equity of $291 million.

The stock recently declined to $3.50 and became weak sometime after the third quarter numbers were released suggesting minimal growth in the bottom line. Notwithstanding, the junior market has been exhibiting softness across most stocks. As such there could well be further decline in this stock price as there does not seem to be any major buying interest currently.

Insider call | With the expansion and modernisation that is underway and the tendency for sales to be boosted by increased volume the stock should be an attractive buy as a medium to long term investment around $3 per share.

Related posts | AMG is investing for tomorrow

Ghana chucking along, up 76.72%

At the end of September, the African country’s stock market was up 68 percent but it has put on additional 8 percentage points by the first trading day in November.

In the week to November 1st, ten stocks gained versus only two to fall as the Ghana Stock Exchange index climbed to 2,120.18 points up from 2,094.70 at the end of the prior week.

The main movers for the week are, Ayrton Drugs Manufacturing which gained 6 percent in the week and closed at GH¢0.18. Ecobank Ghana closed up 8 percent at GH¢5.50, Mechanical Lloyd gained 3 percent for the week and closed at GH¢0.36, SIC Insurance was up 3 percent to GH¢0.39, UT Bank gained 2 percent to end at GH¢0.45.

The market is still showing signs that it will be going higher, with a number of stocks having bids higher than the last sale price and in some cases no stock on offer, and a number with bids placed at the last sale price with no supply around the last selling price.

Related posts | Ghana Stock market inching higher | Ghana stocks now up 71.4% | Ghana Stock Exchange rated best performing in Africa

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